Top Investers Start Dumping Stocks, Signal to Exit DOW?

[Luddly Neddite]

I am so glad none of you folks are in charge of nothing important right now.

And hopefully the House gets cleared out of anti-government fools in November.

Is there a single topic that you libtards don't drag partisan politics into?

You absolute fanaticism is turning people off, so it is good to see for that reason.

And if you think Bernanke and Greenspan were our best economists then you are an idiot.

... asks the OP who started the thread with an incorrect political statement.

=====


Where do you invest your money?

Beck's phony gold?

 

[SteadyMercury]

I would pull all my investments...except I already have.

Careful with yanking all your money in and out, you make the wrong call and you miss out on some nice gains.

Your post from Oct 15 2011 when DIJA was 11,644:

I no longer have any money in the market now. I get the impression that within the next three to six months we are going to see the DOW go back down through 10,000 and maybe 9,000 or lower.

Of course DIJA didn't fall below 11k and finished the year at 12,217. You missed out because of attempts at market timing pulling all your money in and out.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Yawn.....

Stock prices fluctuate. But over time, there is no better place to grow your money than the Stock (and bond) market. Individual investors make the mistake of allowing emotions to intervene- they buy at market tops and sell at bottoms. The only antidote to this is a PLAN.

An Investment policy statement (IPS) is a statement that defines general investment goals and objectives. It describes the strategies that will be used to meet these objectives and contains specific information on subjects such as asset allocation, risk tolerance, and liquidity requirements.

My advice? Create an IPS and stick with it- over the long haul you'll come out way ahead.

You assume that the plan will be a good plan, and that the market wont have a major large cycle retrace that could return to DOW 12,000. That is a very up hill climb.

Commodities and treasuries are probably safer for the next year or so, I have read.

But YMMV

IMHO, Almost any plan is better than "no plan". Having "no plan" makes you susceptible to scams and emotion based decision making. Most individual investors sell at market bottoms, and buy at market tops. They get caught up in the roller coaster ride of the market, get frustrated and it costs them a shitload of money.

If you are investing for the next "year or so" you really are not investing at all- you are speculating. That's fine- but your serious "long term" money should be invested in an asset allocation (AA) that you can stick with regardless of short term fluctuations. If you are still working and contributing it is even more important to ignore short term fluctuations.

Personally, I use a simple 60/40 portfolio model with 6 asset classes. (us stock, int'l stock, reits, US bonds, int'l bonds, and cash). It's a tax efficient and simple to manage portfolio that requires only 15 minutes a year to maintain and re-balance.

PS- I do play around with a small percentage of my cash account- just for shits and giggles. But I don't play games with my long term money....EVER.

You sound like you are knowledgeable enough to do things right.

In contrast we have.....

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMLGZkm4Xd8]THE WOLF OF WALL STREET 'Become' Trailer - YouTube[/ame]

 

[JimBowie1958]

I would pull all my investments...except I already have.

Careful with yanking all your money in and out, you make the wrong call and you miss out on some nice gains.

Your post from Oct 15 2011 when DIJA was 11,644:

I no longer have any money in the market now. I get the impression that within the next three to six months we are going to see the DOW go back down through 10,000 and maybe 9,000 or lower.

Of course DIJA didn't fall below 11k and finished the year at 12,217. You missed out because of attempts at market timing pulling all your money in and out.

Yeah, I wish I could exactly predict what the market is going to do, but alas.....We are doing fine. Not rich but I have a nice amount saved up, suitable enough for me. I don't believe in gambling with the nest eggs, ya know?

But when to exit with an oncoming crash, it's hard to call but not really a gamble. You are choosing to NOT gamble and keep your money safe.

It's like getting off the Titanic because you see a hole in the side and it's taking on water. You don't know exactly when the water will come rushing in, but should that stop you from doing what is prudent?

Might miss a few brewskies, some nice dancing, and great steak, etc, but being in a life boat by the time everyone else is running to the few left is priceless.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I am so glad none of you folks are in charge of nothing important right now.

And hopefully the House gets cleared out of anti-government fools in November.

Is there a single topic that you libtards don't drag partisan politics into?

You absolute fanaticism is turning people off, so it is good to see for that reason.

And if you think Bernanke and Greenspan were our best economists then you are an idiot.

... asks the OP who started the thread with an incorrect political statement. .

Says the coward who fails to give a link to claimed statement.

Where do you invest your money?

Beck's phony gold?

Treasuries.

 

[SteadyMercury]

Yeah, I wish I could exactly predict what the market is going to do, but alas.....

Sure would be easy then wouldn't it?

But when to exit with an oncoming crash, it's hard to call but not really a gamble. You are choosing to NOT gamble and keep your money safe.

Yanking all your money in and out of the market based on speculation of what will happen in the near future is just as much gambling as people who just buy and hold.

Don't get me wrong I'm not faulting it I'm sure some people do quite well with market timing, but lets not pretend it is a less risky way to invest. Your risk is getting back in right when shit goes south, and getting out right before shit goes north.

Good luck in 2014.

 

[Truthmatters]

Glen Beck has gold to sell


the minions will buy if you place fear in their silly hearts.

history proves it

 

[JimBowie1958]

Why do we need to bash low information heads with the reality that investors do not trust the United States to lead the economic world?

Irony, given you appear to be low information head-in-chief.

Global stock funds attract record inflows in 2013: Report

Last year's flows into stock funds were the largest since records began in 2002. Funds that specialize in U.S. stocks attracted $2.8 billion in the week, bringing inflows to about $115 billion in 2013, data from the report showed.

Investors don't trust the United States... oh except for the 115 billion in stock inflows last year.

At $85 billion a month, I doubt that that 'inflation' came from anyone more than Federal Reserve banks.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Glen Beck has gold to sell


the minions will buy if you place fear in their silly hearts.

history proves it

A good investor will buy precious metals any year, just to keep some balance in their portfolio.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Yeah, I wish I could exactly predict what the market is going to do, but alas.....

Sure would be easy then wouldn't it?

But when to exit with an oncoming crash, it's hard to call but not really a gamble. You are choosing to NOT gamble and keep your money safe.

Yanking all your money in and out of the market based on speculation of what will happen in the near future is just as much gambling as people who just buy and hold.

Don't get me wrong I'm not faulting it I'm sure some people do quite well with market timing, but lets not pretend it is a less risky way to invest. Your risk is getting back in right when shit goes south, and getting out right before shit goes north.

Good luck in 2014.

Walking away from the black jack table while you still have winnings in your pocket is to NOT gamble, sir.

 

[SteadyMercury]

Walking away from the black jack table while you still have winnings in your pocket is to NOT gamble, sir.

It is if you plan on coming back to the table when you feel the deck might be hotter.

I can't believe I'm seeing someone claim that yanking all your money in and out of the stock market based on speculation of future events isn't gambling, but people who just leave their money in are. Hilarious.

 

[Zander]

Yeah, I wish I could exactly predict what the market is going to do, but alas.....

Sure would be easy then wouldn't it?

But when to exit with an oncoming crash, it's hard to call but not really a gamble. You are choosing to NOT gamble and keep your money safe.

Yanking all your money in and out of the market based on speculation of what will happen in the near future is just as much gambling as people who just buy and hold.

Don't get me wrong I'm not faulting it I'm sure some people do quite well with market timing, but lets not pretend it is a less risky way to invest. Your risk is getting back in right when shit goes south, and getting out right before shit goes north.

Good luck in 2014.

Walking away from the black jack table while you still have winnings in your pocket is to NOT gamble, sir.

There are market timers that have excellent track records. The best ones use a mechanical system with easy to follow entry and exit strategies that eliminate emotion based decision making.

One that comes to mind is Sy Harding. He uses a seasonal timing strategy that has beaten the broad market and with less risk. Here is a link- STREET SMART REPORT

That being said- I still think most investors are better off with a buy and hold strategy. Especially people that are still contributing to their retirement accounts.

I've spent a lifetime investing and studying the stock, bond, and commodity markets and I was a licensed series 3 commodities broker for a number of years. I always thought I had a "high risk tolerance", only to learn that I really only had a "high risk tolerance" when using my clients money!! My personal money was a different story! That's when I made the switch to a more passive strategy. It's also when I decided to exit the financial services industry. Hard to sell something you don't believe in....

 

[JimBowie1958]

Walking away from the black jack table while you still have winnings in your pocket is to NOT gamble, sir.

It is if you plan on coming back to the table when you feel the deck might be hotter.

I can't believe I'm seeing someone claim that yanking all your money in and out of the stock market based on speculation of future events isn't gambling, but people who just leave their money in are. Hilarious.

1. I do not claim that yanking money in and out of the stock market is in and of itself a clever thing. I am nearing retirement, God Willing, and so I refuse to gamble my money in the stock market. That is what I meant when I said I took m y money off the table and no, I do not plan on getting back in, unless the DOW goes down to like 7,000 then I will put some in to ride it back up, maybe 20% max. That would be a gamble. But my funds are no longer going to be exposed to the stock markets idiocy, the high frequency trading bots, the Federal Reserve's whims, etc.

2. Not gambling with your savings is to NOT gamble with your savings. Funny how that works.

 

[william the wie]

A balanced portfolio like Steady Mercury uses is a timing mechanism, not buy and hold, also it is much simpler, safer and more profitable to hedge in and out of markets with covered options. Trying to time with the STS (Sy Harding's technique) works 85% of the time, the census timer about 60-80% of the time and the presidential cycle 75+%. While good and better than buy and hold downturns and upturns are not adequately predictable. Balanced portfolios combined with hedging is much safer.

 

[SteadyMercury]

1. I do not claim that yanking money in and out of the stock market is in and of itself a clever thing. I am nearing retirement, God Willing, and so I refuse to gamble my money in the stock market.

You claimed in a post from Oct 2011 that you had taken all your money out of investments because you predicted DIJA going under 10k, documenting a poor decision that cost you some gains. Then in this thread you claimed you just did it again, which means at some point you piled your money back in at a higher cost.

You can say you refuse to gamble all you want, but your posts indicate otherwise.

2. Not gambling with your savings is to NOT gamble with your savings. Funny how that works.

Yup, keep on bragging about your moves in and out of the market with the other side of your mouth.

 

[JimBowie1958]

1. I do not claim that yanking money in and out of the stock market is in and of itself a clever thing. I am nearing retirement, God Willing, and so I refuse to gamble my money in the stock market.

You claimed in a post from Oct 2011 that you had taken all your money out of investments because you predicted DIJA going under 10k, documenting a poor decision that cost you some gains. Then in this thread you claimed you just did it again, which means at some point you piled your money back in at a higher cost.

You can say you refuse to gamble all you want, but your posts indicate otherwise.

2. Not gambling with your savings is to NOT gamble with your savings. Funny how that works.

Yup, keep on bragging about your moves in and out of the market with the other side of your mouth.

Lol, you seem to have a difficulty understanding what I am saying. I had some money in a thrift savings plan that was about 30% fast growth, 30% treasuries, and 40% overseas investments.

I took my money out in June of 2007, not 20011, and I have stayed out, with everything in treasuries.

There is no back and forth, etc, as I was in and now I am out.

That is not gambling, that is you with a reading comprehension problem.

 

[SteadyMercury]

Gotcha you aren't an investor at all, you're one of those guys just sitting on the sidelines talking about how the market will crash while others reaped the gains of a once in a generation bull market.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Gotcha you aren't an investor at all, you're one of those guys just sitting on the sidelines talking about how the market will crash while others reaped the gains of a once in a generation bull market.

Lol, I have invested and am still invested.

And you are a dumbass.

Welcome to my ignore list, bitch.

 

[Toro]

As a "top investor," I too have started dumping stocks.

Having said that, I would pay little attention to "technicians" calling for a 70% decline in the market.

 

[JimBowie1958]

As a "top investor," I too have started dumping stocks.

Having said that, I would pay little attention to "technicians" calling for a 70% decline in the market.

Yeah, 70% sounds a bit extreme to me as well. We see that kind of downturn and I think we will have a lot more problems than mere stock values.

I think we will see something around 10,000 to 11,000 or so, not 5,000 on the DOW.