Tracking the el nino

[skookerasbil]

1. The South Will Be Cooler Than Average, The North Warmer

2. The South Will Be Wetter Than Average

Winter 2015-2016 outlook: 5 things to expect

Well, there are the expected effects of the El Nino.

Hmmm........but all you AGW guys promised colors of red and dark red..........two decades ago........... EVERYWHERE!!!

We 'aint seeing it!!!

 

[Billy_Bob]

Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 October 2015

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 1.1ºC

Niño3.4 2.4ºC

Niño 3 2.6ºC

Niño 1+2 2.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Oh Billy........................ Still 2.4, that is a very strong El Nino.

And yet the foremost researchers on El Nino in Australia say ...Nope! The Dutch Meteorological Office say's .. Nope... Among many others while it is only the US and France who are touting the Alarmist drone cry's of the sky is falling... It seems the only countries pushing the crap are the ones who want wealth redistribution via the socialist class..

 

[skookerasbil]

Billy.........at the rate these goofball incrementalists ( they've redefined the term ) are going, in 1,000 years, they'll be discussing the same canned shit as today!!

 

[Crick]

Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 October 2015

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 1.1ºC

Niño3.4 2.4ºC

Niño 3 2.6ºC

Niño 1+2 2.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Oh Billy........................ Still 2.4, that is a very strong El Nino.

And yet the foremost researchers on El Nino in Australia say ...Nope! The Dutch Meteorological Office say's .. Nope... Among many others while it is only the US and France who are touting the Alarmist drone cry's of the sky is falling... It seems the only countries pushing the crap are the ones who want wealth redistribution via the socialist class..

and who's been right so far Billy Boy? Certainly not you.

 

[Crick]

1. The South Will Be Cooler Than Average, The North Warmer

2. The South Will Be Wetter Than Average

Winter 2015-2016 outlook: 5 things to expect

Well, there are the expected effects of the El Nino.

Hmmm........but all you AGW guys promised colors of red and dark red..........two decades ago........... EVERYWHERE!!!

We 'aint seeing it!!!

Promised you red and dark red? I wouldn't have thought it possible, but you've become more ignorant than you were six months ago when I put you on ignore.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Region one in free fall..

Region 2 now in decline;

Region 3-4 has no change this week;

While the individual regions are both falling;

Not sure where the NOAA boys are getting their doom and gloom from as the Pacific Blob is being torn apart by shifting water circulation...

 

[Billy_Bob]

Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 October 2015

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 1.1ºC

Niño3.4 2.4ºC

Niño 3 2.6ºC

Niño 1+2 2.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Oh Billy........................ Still 2.4, that is a very strong El Nino.

And yet the foremost researchers on El Nino in Australia say ...Nope! The Dutch Meteorological Office say's .. Nope... Among many others while it is only the US and France who are touting the Alarmist drone cry's of the sky is falling... It seems the only countries pushing the crap are the ones who want wealth redistribution via the socialist class..

and who's been right so far Billy Boy? Certainly not you.

Funny, You have produced nothing but model conjecture prepared by someone else and I post empirical observed evidence... So your fantasy models some how are better (and more relevant) than empirical evidence and scientific OBSERVATIONS..

 

[Billy_Bob]

The Blob has four parts today and I expect one of the parts to be nonexistent within a week off the Washington-Alaska region. With the main two sections being pulled apart off California's coast to be impacted by cold water over the week resulting in significant temperature reductions as well.

As you can see from the ABOM observations, the cold water intrusion is massive and cold. A shift of 4-6 deg C.

 

[flacaltenn]

Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 October 2015

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 1.1ºC

Niño3.4 2.4ºC

Niño 3 2.6ºC

Niño 1+2 2.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Oh Billy........................ Still 2.4, that is a very strong El Nino.

And yet the foremost researchers on El Nino in Australia say ...Nope! The Dutch Meteorological Office say's .. Nope... Among many others while it is only the US and France who are touting the Alarmist drone cry's of the sky is falling... It seems the only countries pushing the crap are the ones who want wealth redistribution via the socialist class..

Whoaaaaa there. El Nino is now part of the socialist redistribution plan? What's next? The NOAA weather alerts to your tornado alarm are gonna have political ads??

 

[flacaltenn]

View attachment 53302

The Blob has four parts today and I expect one of the parts to be nonexistent within a week off the Washington-Alaska region. With the main two sections being pulled apart off California's coast to be impacted by cold water over the week resulting in significant temperature reductions as well.

As you can see from the ABOM observations, the cold water intrusion is massive and cold. A shift of 4-6 deg C.

Blob anatomy.. A little fuzzy on that, but I think I dissected one in Pre-Med Anatomy.. Rather than pulling it apart -- a simple garlic flourish might cause it to dissipate..

 

[Billy_Bob]

Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 October 2015

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 1.1ºC

Niño3.4 2.4ºC

Niño 3 2.6ºC

Niño 1+2 2.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Oh Billy........................ Still 2.4, that is a very strong El Nino.

And yet the foremost researchers on El Nino in Australia say ...Nope! The Dutch Meteorological Office say's .. Nope... Among many others while it is only the US and France who are touting the Alarmist drone cry's of the sky is falling... It seems the only countries pushing the crap are the ones who want wealth redistribution via the socialist class..

Whoaaaaa there. El Nino is now part of the socialist redistribution plan? What's next? The NOAA weather alerts to your tornado alarm are gonna have political ads??

My point was simply that other agencies are not coming to the same conclusion as NOAA. Whether or not they are part of the CAGW scam is another point of contention. Many on here point to the El Nino as being man made/caused despite the fact there is empirical evidence to the contrary.

Hyper vigilance and endless warnings make people numb so that when there are real emergencies which requires prompt decisive action, they do not act or are slow to act. I would dare to say that most of the current hyperbole is a political add to support the scam at this point.

That has very negative results with the general populace when real action is required. Using this type of alarmism to forward a political agenda at the detrimental cost of the people they are supposed to be serving, is beyond reprehensible to me..

 

[Billy_Bob]

View attachment 53302

The Blob has four parts today and I expect one of the parts to be nonexistent within a week off the Washington-Alaska region. With the main two sections being pulled apart off California's coast to be impacted by cold water over the week resulting in significant temperature reductions as well.

As you can see from the ABOM observations, the cold water intrusion is massive and cold. A shift of 4-6 deg C.

Blob anatomy.. A little fuzzy on that, but I think I dissected one in Pre-Med Anatomy.. Rather than pulling it apart -- a simple garlic flourish might cause it to dissipate..

Funny thing about that "blob" its been fuzzy since they first coined the term. The area of anomaly is now being impacted by changing ocean circulations. I think the cold water circulations returning to the west coast will take care of the "blob" fairly quickly.

 

[jc456]

Promises, promises, promises. That is all we ever get from you, silly Billy Bob. Of course, the El Nino will eventually end, the silly Billy will say " I told you so".

"Promises, promises, promises. That is all we ever get from you, silly Billy Bob. Of course, the El Nino will eventually end, the silly Billy will say " I told you so"
so what is it you have? Any observed data that you can show yet? Hmmmmmmmm?

Predict, predict, predict, what is the difference?

 

[Old Rocks]

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 1.3ºC
Niño 3.4 2.5ºC
Niño 3 2.6ºC
Niño 1+2 2.2ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Oh Billy, loosen the belt and drop the pants again. Region up 3.4 up another notch again.
Looks like the Very Strong El Nino is going to continue to gain strength for a while longer. jc, you are getting as silly as Billy. Starting early this year, the people that study weather and climate were predicting a strong to very strong El Nino. And silly Billy was stating that they did not know what they were talking about.

Now here we are, in a Very Strong El Nino. And silly Billy is still daily calling for a weakening of that El Nino. For sure, eventually he will be right. But a broken clock is correct twice a day.

 

[IanC]

This super El Nino seems to have a lot in common with the recent strongest hurricane evah. Lots of publicity but strangely little in the way of predicted consequences.

 

[Billy_Bob]

This super El Nino seems to have a lot in common with the recent strongest hurricane evah. Lots of publicity but strangely little in the way of predicted consequences.

Funny how that works. The empirical evidence does not reflect the hype? The damages caused by both reflect a much smaller influence than the hype and predilections have predicted. Indicating that we either do not understand the mechanisms or someone is lying... It is probably some of both IMHO.

 

[Old Rocks]

LOL. Now why don't you tell the people in Texas and the Carolina's about that?

 

[Crick]

This super El Nino seems to have a lot in common with the recent strongest hurricane evah. Lots of publicity but strangely little in the way of predicted consequences.

Funny how that works. The empirical evidence does not reflect the hype? The damages caused by both reflect a much smaller influence than the hype and predilections have predicted. Indicating that we either do not understand the mechanisms or someone is lying... It is probably some of both IMHO.

A weather system goes from a tropical storm to a Category FIVE hurricane in 24 hours, just as it passes over the core of the el Nino hot water. And you think this is a non-event and that the two are unrelated? Your idiocy goes beyond all comprehension.

 

[IanC]

Galveston cat 5 (edit- oops cat4, 4000-8000 dead)

strongest hurricane evahhhhhhhh. Patricia cat 5 (edit- 2 dead campers crushed by a tree, 4 dead in a highway accident before the actual landfall)

 

[jc456]

cat 5 wind was only 15 miles wide.