Trump Will Win Say Professor Allan Lichtman

Lewdog

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Apr 26, 2016
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We'll see. It's an uphill climb for both of them, but if Wikileaks continues to wow us with their leaks that continue to be factual anti Clinton info, the the that hill will be be lengthier and more steep.
 
So this professor has picked the winner of the Presidential election every year since 1984, and he says Trump is going to win.

Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984.

Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly
wow

no more listening to hillary flab her gums.

and in other news, we will all be sexists for not electing her, that includes the young dems that did not vote for her
 
Interesting what he says about Trump....

Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.


We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it. We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.
 
Generally speaking, I consider it desperation when someone trots out the "They've been right every time for X years" indicators. No one had ever came back from being down 3 in a Major League playoff series until the Red Sox beat the Yankees 4 games to 3.

I'm always interested in odds. It's far more honest to say a result is more likely than not. Right now every model of the election that's out there and the betting markets are saying Hillary is the favorite. But again, that's not certainty. It just means she's more likely to win. Trump still could.
 
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Breitbart disagrees.

Democratic nominee for president Hillary Clinton continues to hold a slight lead over her GOP rival Donald Trump with 44 percent of the electorate compared with his 40 percent, according to the Breitbart News Network/Gravis Marketing poll conducted on Sept. 20 of 1,560 likely voters.

“Our results are virtually the same as in our poll taken Sept. 7 and Sept. 8, where Clinton led Trump 43 percent to Trump’s 40 percent,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based polling firm that executed the poll. The poll carries a margin of error of 2.5 percent with a 95 percent level of confidence.

“It’s like voters have settled down from the conventions and everything else and are really waiting for the first presidential debate,” Kaplan said.

Breitbart/Gravis Poll: Hillary Clinton 44, Donald Trump 40
 
Breitbart disagrees.

Democratic nominee for president Hillary Clinton continues to hold a slight lead over her GOP rival Donald Trump with 44 percent of the electorate compared with his 40 percent, according to the Breitbart News Network/Gravis Marketing poll conducted on Sept. 20 of 1,560 likely voters.

“Our results are virtually the same as in our poll taken Sept. 7 and Sept. 8, where Clinton led Trump 43 percent to Trump’s 40 percent,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based polling firm that executed the poll. The poll carries a margin of error of 2.5 percent with a 95 percent level of confidence.

“It’s like voters have settled down from the conventions and everything else and are really waiting for the first presidential debate,” Kaplan said.

Breitbart/Gravis Poll: Hillary Clinton 44, Donald Trump 40
Talking inside baseball: I'd still give Trump a shot because of that 44-40 split. There's still an unaccounted for 16% and who knows how they'd break out on election day. Normally I'd be comfortable saying the leader in the polls would benefit the most from those undecided casting a vote, but this year things are pretty wonky.
 
Interesting what he says about Trump....

Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.


We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it. We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.

:lmao:

"We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others." This while Hillary has produced nothing in her life. She's a hundred millionaire doing nothing but selling government influence
 
Interesting what he says about Trump....

Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.


We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it. We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.

:lmao:

"We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others." This while Hillary has produced nothing in her life. She's a hundred millionaire doing nothing but selling government influence


Hillary is a flawed candidate in terms of personal ethics, but- to her credit, she has accomplished a hell of a lot more than The Donald in public service and she has held to her causes which began long before she was involved in any public offices.

What has The Donald Accomplished? What charities does his foundation work with and donate to and what public works, projects, initiatives has he donated time to? Who has The Donald helped besides himself? (And no, The Donald is not a legitimate charity).


Here’s A List Of Hillary Clinton’s Accomplishments, So Quit Saying She Doesn’t Have Any | Addicting Info | The Knowledge You Crave

You don’t have to like Hillary Clinton or her ideas. I get it. She’s a Democrat, a progressive (in most eyes), and conservatives don’t like that. However, you cannot say she does not have any accomplishments. Here are just a few:


These are not all of her accomplishments. Her activism on behalf of women a children across the world is renowned. Her activism for raising the minimum wage and combating climate change is stellar. You do not have to support what she does or stands for. But do not say she doesn’t have any accomplishments. The conservatives who say this are the ones who are pushing for Ted Cruz – who brought on a $24 billion shut down. That, to them, is an accomplishment?


Yes, Hillary Clinton has accomplishments. You don’t have to like them, but they do, in fact, exist.
 
Interesting what he says about Trump....

Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.


We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it. We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.

:lmao:

"We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others." This while Hillary has produced nothing in her life. She's a hundred millionaire doing nothing but selling government influence


Hillary is a flawed candidate in terms of personal ethics, but- to her credit, she has accomplished a hell of a lot more than The Donald in public service and she has held to her causes which began long before she was involved in any public offices.

What has The Donald Accomplished? What charities does his foundation work with and donate to and what public works, projects, initiatives has he donated time to? Who has The Donald helped besides himself? (And no, The Donald is not a legitimate charity).


Here’s A List Of Hillary Clinton’s Accomplishments, So Quit Saying She Doesn’t Have Any | Addicting Info | The Knowledge You Crave

You don’t have to like Hillary Clinton or her ideas. I get it. She’s a Democrat, a progressive (in most eyes), and conservatives don’t like that. However, you cannot say she does not have any accomplishments. Here are just a few:


These are not all of her accomplishments. Her activism on behalf of women a children across the world is renowned. Her activism for raising the minimum wage and combating climate change is stellar. You do not have to support what she does or stands for. But do not say she doesn’t have any accomplishments. The conservatives who say this are the ones who are pushing for Ted Cruz – who brought on a $24 billion shut down. That, to them, is an accomplishment?


Yes, Hillary Clinton has accomplishments. You don’t have to like them, but they do, in fact, exist.

LOL, the first thing in your list of her accomplishments is something she failed ... :lmao:

As for the rest, there's no personal accomplishment in there. They were all things she did as part of a group that were funded with someone else's money in which we had no choice, it was taken with guns
 
The 13 Keys from the OP:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
False.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

False. Sanders gave Clinton a run for her money.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Nope. Obama is not the Democratic candidate in this election.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
True. But this is true for every modern election. This is a useless metric.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

True.

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Barely true.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
False. This has been one of the most deadlocked Administrations in history. The only exception being ObamaCare, which is a very significant policy change. But that was seven years ago.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
False. There has been a great deal of social unrest.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
If there wasn't one, the Republicans have invented a few.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
True. Especially compared to the military and foreign policy failures of the previous Administration.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
False. No major successes.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
False. She is the second most unpopular candidate in history.

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
False. He is the most unpopular candidate in history.
 
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Interesting what he says about Trump....

Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.


We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it. We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.

:lmao:

"We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others." This while Hillary has produced nothing in her life. She's a hundred millionaire doing nothing but selling government influence


Hillary is a flawed candidate in terms of personal ethics, but- to her credit, she has accomplished a hell of a lot more than The Donald in public service and she has held to her causes which began long before she was involved in any public offices.

What has The Donald Accomplished? What charities does his foundation work with and donate to and what public works, projects, initiatives has he donated time to? Who has The Donald helped besides himself? (And no, The Donald is not a legitimate charity).


Here’s A List Of Hillary Clinton’s Accomplishments, So Quit Saying She Doesn’t Have Any | Addicting Info | The Knowledge You Crave

You don’t have to like Hillary Clinton or her ideas. I get it. She’s a Democrat, a progressive (in most eyes), and conservatives don’t like that. However, you cannot say she does not have any accomplishments. Here are just a few:


These are not all of her accomplishments. Her activism on behalf of women a children across the world is renowned. Her activism for raising the minimum wage and combating climate change is stellar. You do not have to support what she does or stands for. But do not say she doesn’t have any accomplishments. The conservatives who say this are the ones who are pushing for Ted Cruz – who brought on a $24 billion shut down. That, to them, is an accomplishment?


Yes, Hillary Clinton has accomplishments. You don’t have to like them, but they do, in fact, exist.

LOL, the first thing in your list of her accomplishments is something she failed ... :lmao:

As for the rest, there's no personal accomplishment in there. They were all things she did as part of a group that were funded with someone else's money in which we had no choice, it was taken with guns

They look like accomplishments to me.

Let's see what The Donald has done....

What has he done? :dunno:
 
Interesting what he says about Trump....

Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.


We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it. We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.

:lmao:

"We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others." This while Hillary has produced nothing in her life. She's a hundred millionaire doing nothing but selling government influence


Hillary is a flawed candidate in terms of personal ethics, but- to her credit, she has accomplished a hell of a lot more than The Donald in public service and she has held to her causes which began long before she was involved in any public offices.

What has The Donald Accomplished? What charities does his foundation work with and donate to and what public works, projects, initiatives has he donated time to? Who has The Donald helped besides himself? (And no, The Donald is not a legitimate charity).


Here’s A List Of Hillary Clinton’s Accomplishments, So Quit Saying She Doesn’t Have Any | Addicting Info | The Knowledge You Crave

You don’t have to like Hillary Clinton or her ideas. I get it. She’s a Democrat, a progressive (in most eyes), and conservatives don’t like that. However, you cannot say she does not have any accomplishments. Here are just a few:


These are not all of her accomplishments. Her activism on behalf of women a children across the world is renowned. Her activism for raising the minimum wage and combating climate change is stellar. You do not have to support what she does or stands for. But do not say she doesn’t have any accomplishments. The conservatives who say this are the ones who are pushing for Ted Cruz – who brought on a $24 billion shut down. That, to them, is an accomplishment?


Yes, Hillary Clinton has accomplishments. You don’t have to like them, but they do, in fact, exist.

LOL, the first thing in your list of her accomplishments is something she failed ... :lmao:

As for the rest, there's no personal accomplishment in there. They were all things she did as part of a group that were funded with someone else's money in which we had no choice, it was taken with guns

They look like accomplishments to me.

Let's see what The Donald has done....

What has he done? :dunno:


Ten times what the sickly old hag with the eye movement thing going on. I've seen the video of her eyes, something is wrong with her in the noodle
 
Interesting what he says about Trump....

Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860.


We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along. Even when he tells the truth, such as, "Barack Obama really was born in the U.S.," he adds two lines, that Hillary Clinton started the birther movement, and that he finished it, even though when Barack Obama put out his birth certificate, he didn't believe it. We've never had a candidate before who not just once, but twice in a thinly disguised way, has incited violence against an opponent. We've never had a candidate before who's invited a hostile foreign power to meddle in American elections. We've never had a candidate before who's threatened to start a war by blowing ships out of the water in the Persian Gulf if they come too close to us. We've never had a candidate before who has embraced as a role model a murderous, hostile foreign dictator. Given all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it.

:lmao:

"We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others." This while Hillary has produced nothing in her life. She's a hundred millionaire doing nothing but selling government influence


Hillary is a flawed candidate in terms of personal ethics, but- to her credit, she has accomplished a hell of a lot more than The Donald in public service and she has held to her causes which began long before she was involved in any public offices.

What has The Donald Accomplished? What charities does his foundation work with and donate to and what public works, projects, initiatives has he donated time to? Who has The Donald helped besides himself? (And no, The Donald is not a legitimate charity).


Here’s A List Of Hillary Clinton’s Accomplishments, So Quit Saying She Doesn’t Have Any | Addicting Info | The Knowledge You Crave

You don’t have to like Hillary Clinton or her ideas. I get it. She’s a Democrat, a progressive (in most eyes), and conservatives don’t like that. However, you cannot say she does not have any accomplishments. Here are just a few:


These are not all of her accomplishments. Her activism on behalf of women a children across the world is renowned. Her activism for raising the minimum wage and combating climate change is stellar. You do not have to support what she does or stands for. But do not say she doesn’t have any accomplishments. The conservatives who say this are the ones who are pushing for Ted Cruz – who brought on a $24 billion shut down. That, to them, is an accomplishment?


Yes, Hillary Clinton has accomplishments. You don’t have to like them, but they do, in fact, exist.

LOL, the first thing in your list of her accomplishments is something she failed ... :lmao:

As for the rest, there's no personal accomplishment in there. They were all things she did as part of a group that were funded with someone else's money in which we had no choice, it was taken with guns

They look like accomplishments to me.

Let's see what The Donald has done....

What has he done? :dunno:


Ten times what the sickly old hag with the eye movement thing going on. I've seen the video of her eyes, something is wrong with her in the noodle

Like what?
 
:lmao:

"We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others." This while Hillary has produced nothing in her life. She's a hundred millionaire doing nothing but selling government influence


Hillary is a flawed candidate in terms of personal ethics, but- to her credit, she has accomplished a hell of a lot more than The Donald in public service and she has held to her causes which began long before she was involved in any public offices.

What has The Donald Accomplished? What charities does his foundation work with and donate to and what public works, projects, initiatives has he donated time to? Who has The Donald helped besides himself? (And no, The Donald is not a legitimate charity).


Here’s A List Of Hillary Clinton’s Accomplishments, So Quit Saying She Doesn’t Have Any | Addicting Info | The Knowledge You Crave

You don’t have to like Hillary Clinton or her ideas. I get it. She’s a Democrat, a progressive (in most eyes), and conservatives don’t like that. However, you cannot say she does not have any accomplishments. Here are just a few:


These are not all of her accomplishments. Her activism on behalf of women a children across the world is renowned. Her activism for raising the minimum wage and combating climate change is stellar. You do not have to support what she does or stands for. But do not say she doesn’t have any accomplishments. The conservatives who say this are the ones who are pushing for Ted Cruz – who brought on a $24 billion shut down. That, to them, is an accomplishment?


Yes, Hillary Clinton has accomplishments. You don’t have to like them, but they do, in fact, exist.

LOL, the first thing in your list of her accomplishments is something she failed ... :lmao:

As for the rest, there's no personal accomplishment in there. They were all things she did as part of a group that were funded with someone else's money in which we had no choice, it was taken with guns

They look like accomplishments to me.

Let's see what The Donald has done....

What has he done? :dunno:


Ten times what the sickly old hag with the eye movement thing going on. I've seen the video of her eyes, something is wrong with her in the noodle

Like what?

Successful businessman...and his eyes don't wander all over the place due to an obvious brain disorder. :)
 

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