Trumps Axios Interview
- Thread starter Slade3200
- Start date
kyzr
Diamond Member
- Oct 14, 2009
- 36,866
- 28,158
You actually make two good points, I'm glad you chimed in. More testing is going to Statistically show more cases that is true. It it also gives opportunity to slow the spread as identifying cases leads to quarantine, early treatment and contact tracing which ultimately leads to less cases over time. The interviewer, who is very middle of the road and spends a lot of time on Fox, was asking about the death rate in relation to population with really is a more relevant stat. Trump, first failed to explain how we are "over testing" by referencing some unnamed books and manuals, and then he said the only death stats that we can look at are deaths per cases... This makes no sense. Be honest... It really makes no sense.
Damn right we're voting for Trump again. I saw the entire interview. The interviewer just couldn't get past the democrat talking points. I can give you one example:
The US has so many infected because we test much more than other countries. That is a fact, yet the democrats don't grasp it. Here is the explanation:
1. Other countries do not test until the person enters the hospital with symptoms.
Take India for example, 20m tests and 15,000 tests/1m people, 1.9m cases found.
The US did 61m tests, and 186,000 tests/1m people, 4.9m cases found.
So it is not surprising that in the US we found many more cases (3x) by testing 10x more people per million.
In India there are many more "asymptomatic" or "mildly symptomatic" cases undetected, that would show positive in the US.
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...www.worldometers.info
2. Trump's handling of the pandemic is totally dependent on citizens mitigating risk. If people party and don't social distance, and have covid parties, then the infection spreads. If people act responsibly, and wear masks, the pandemic can be reduced, see the attached chart. Trump can only lead the horses to water, he can't make them drink.
View attachment 371221
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.covid19.healthdata.org
2. I totally agree about mitigating risk and this is where I think Trump has made his biggest misstep of leadership. He isn't leading horses to water, he is leading them to slaughter. He has been downplaying this virus from the beginning. Instead of being honest about the seriousness of the situation he has tried to dismiss it and score political points. He hasn't promoted masks or social distancing. He has held the largest group event since the shutdown with the Tulsa rally and then Tulsa spiked in cases a few weeks later. Thats crazy. It took him 3 months to finally say people should wear a mask. He had a few measured and read statements about and then when right back to his "Open it all up" attitude. That is just crazy and irresponsible. Do you not see it? Did you not see how he spun and lied through out that entire interview?
1. I watch FXN all day and don't recall ever seeing the Brit interviewer. He's from Axios. The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves.
2. We disagree. Trump has multiple responsibilities, he needs to address COVID-19 and keep the US economy up and running. I agree with Trump. He is doing a much better job with the pandemic and the economy than Biden could do, and you know it. Biden can't find his ass with both hands.
you actually did respond to my reply and I was the on that missed it. My bad.
1. Dana Parino is a big fan of swan so he appears on her show often and he is a regular on Special report with Bret Bair.
You didn’t address my point about death rate per population. That is really the most relevant stat to see how the virus has effected a country. The stat the Trump tours is deaths per cases which is dependent on the number of tests/cases identified. Since we test more than most countries then of course that number is going to be low. You see that right?
2. how can you think Trump is guiding the public in a responsible way? You admit that the virus is spread by people gathering and not social distancing. We see example after example of Trump promoting this type of behavior and belittling the recommended guidelines of cautionary actions that his own task force is coming out with.
1. Apology accepted, thanks. I miss stuff on occasion too. I like that you debate ideas and facts instead of slinging crap in a TDS food fight. This response is copied from my post #15. So the answer is, it depends if you want better numbers or worse numbers. I made a good living proving answers mathematically that the bosses want.
"The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves."
So look at each case:
a. Deaths per population:
The downside of this is that it doesn't capture trends, it is a much slower moving number. For example, when NY & NJ killed off their nursing home population, those "preventable" deaths stay in the number of "dead/population". Making the ratio look worse than it is. Not a good tool for tracking progress vs the virus.
b. Deaths per cases:
Its important to plot deaths/cases/month to show trends. Are we gaining or is the virus gaining? Look at the high deaths in NY & NJ at the start. Those deaths are "outliers" today. The stat that is most important is "are we winning or is the virus winning?"
I agree that using "deaths/cases/month" is a much more current statistic for how the nation is doing vs the pandemic. As treatments improve, death rates drop. Convalescent plasma and Remdesivir are game changers, as even more effective therapies are approved, the deaths/case will continue to drop. Agree that more testing means more cases and a lower ratio. But the "deaths/cases" ratio on a "per month" basis is the most accurate way to capture how we are doing vs the virus over time.
2. Trump always advises people to mitigate. He also needs the economy to reopen. Its a tough job when people keep partying. When the population "complies" we will beat COVID-19. Until then its not Trump's fault. It's China's fault.
I'm an engineer so I lean into the analytical and not the puff puff opinion stuff. So I always appreciate a substantive debate.
1. I understand what you are saying about the death/case stats. They are important when tracking trends within a country and working to mitigate the spread. The problem is, Trump is using those stats to brag about how great we are compared to other countries. Once you go there you aren't comparing like items. The only way to properly compare the effects of the virus in our country vs other countries is to look at deaths vs population and in that stat we are failing. The NY NJ nursing home accusation is a much larger debate which I would challenge your premise but lets not go there right now.
2. I get that Trump wants the economy to open, but when can you point to him encouraging people to take this seriously and commit to safe practices. Go back as far as you want, to the beginning of the shut down... People needed and still need to take this thing seriously and Trump has been downplaying it the whole time and literally encouraging the types of behavior that lead to more spread. You said "leading a horse to water" What exactly has Trump done to lead the horses to water and encourage the type of behavior that slows the spread? Can you point to some examples?
I'm also a PE. So we both know our numbers.
1. I disagree that the "only way to properly compare the effects of the virus" vs other countries is deaths/pop. As you said initially, the deaths/case stat tracks how the US is doing over time as the medications improve. My argument against comparing countries is that we have no way of knowing if their numbers are accurate. So comparing countries is still apples to oranges, no matter what "squishy" numbers you compare.
2. I can recall Pence, Birx, and Fauci recommending washing hands, distancing, masks. Then I recall "covid parties", bars open, crowded beaches, and BLM protests, etc. Until the population complies with guidance the virus will spread.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.
www.cdc.gov
White House urges Americans to wear cloth face coverings in public in bid to slow coronavirus spread
President Trump announced new guidance encouraging Americans to wear homemade face coverings when in public in an effort to prevent further spread of the novel coronavirus.
www.statnews.com
iceberg
Diamond Member
- May 15, 2017
- 36,788
- 14,920
iceberg
Diamond Member
- May 15, 2017
- 36,788
- 14,920
You actually make two good points, I'm glad you chimed in. More testing is going to Statistically show more cases that is true. It it also gives opportunity to slow the spread as identifying cases leads to quarantine, early treatment and contact tracing which ultimately leads to less cases over time. The interviewer, who is very middle of the road and spends a lot of time on Fox, was asking about the death rate in relation to population with really is a more relevant stat. Trump, first failed to explain how we are "over testing" by referencing some unnamed books and manuals, and then he said the only death stats that we can look at are deaths per cases... This makes no sense. Be honest... It really makes no sense.
Damn right we're voting for Trump again. I saw the entire interview. The interviewer just couldn't get past the democrat talking points. I can give you one example:
The US has so many infected because we test much more than other countries. That is a fact, yet the democrats don't grasp it. Here is the explanation:
1. Other countries do not test until the person enters the hospital with symptoms.
Take India for example, 20m tests and 15,000 tests/1m people, 1.9m cases found.
The US did 61m tests, and 186,000 tests/1m people, 4.9m cases found.
So it is not surprising that in the US we found many more cases (3x) by testing 10x more people per million.
In India there are many more "asymptomatic" or "mildly symptomatic" cases undetected, that would show positive in the US.
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
2. Trump's handling of the pandemic is totally dependent on citizens mitigating risk. If people party and don't social distance, and have covid parties, then the infection spreads. If people act responsibly, and wear masks, the pandemic can be reduced, see the attached chart. Trump can only lead the horses to water, he can't make them drink.
View attachment 371221
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
2. I totally agree about mitigating risk and this is where I think Trump has made his biggest misstep of leadership. He isn't leading horses to water, he is leading them to slaughter. He has been downplaying this virus from the beginning. Instead of being honest about the seriousness of the situation he has tried to dismiss it and score political points. He hasn't promoted masks or social distancing. He has held the largest group event since the shutdown with the Tulsa rally and then Tulsa spiked in cases a few weeks later. Thats crazy. It took him 3 months to finally say people should wear a mask. He had a few measured and read statements about and then when right back to his "Open it all up" attitude. That is just crazy and irresponsible. Do you not see it? Did you not see how he spun and lied through out that entire interview?
1. I watch FXN all day and don't recall ever seeing the Brit interviewer. He's from Axios. The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves.
2. We disagree. Trump has multiple responsibilities, he needs to address COVID-19 and keep the US economy up and running. I agree with Trump. He is doing a much better job with the pandemic and the economy than Biden could do, and you know it. Biden can't find his ass with both hands.
you actually did respond to my reply and I was the on that missed it. My bad.
1. Dana Parino is a big fan of swan so he appears on her show often and he is a regular on Special report with Bret Bair.
You didn’t address my point about death rate per population. That is really the most relevant stat to see how the virus has effected a country. The stat the Trump tours is deaths per cases which is dependent on the number of tests/cases identified. Since we test more than most countries then of course that number is going to be low. You see that right?
2. how can you think Trump is guiding the public in a responsible way? You admit that the virus is spread by people gathering and not social distancing. We see example after example of Trump promoting this type of behavior and belittling the recommended guidelines of cautionary actions that his own task force is coming out with.
1. Apology accepted, thanks. I miss stuff on occasion too. I like that you debate ideas and facts instead of slinging crap in a TDS food fight. This response is copied from my post #15. So the answer is, it depends if you want better numbers or worse numbers. I made a good living proving answers mathematically that the bosses want.
"The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves."
So look at each case:
a. Deaths per population:
The downside of this is that it doesn't capture trends, it is a much slower moving number. For example, when NY & NJ killed off their nursing home population, those "preventable" deaths stay in the number of "dead/population". Making the ratio look worse than it is. Not a good tool for tracking progress vs the virus.
b. Deaths per cases:
Its important to plot deaths/cases/month to show trends. Are we gaining or is the virus gaining? Look at the high deaths in NY & NJ at the start. Those deaths are "outliers" today. The stat that is most important is "are we winning or is the virus winning?"
I agree that using "deaths/cases/month" is a much more current statistic for how the nation is doing vs the pandemic. As treatments improve, death rates drop. Convalescent plasma and Remdesivir are game changers, as even more effective therapies are approved, the deaths/case will continue to drop. Agree that more testing means more cases and a lower ratio. But the "deaths/cases" ratio on a "per month" basis is the most accurate way to capture how we are doing vs the virus over time.
2. Trump always advises people to mitigate. He also needs the economy to reopen. Its a tough job when people keep partying. When the population "complies" we will beat COVID-19. Until then its not Trump's fault. It's China's fault.
I'm an engineer so I lean into the analytical and not the puff puff opinion stuff. So I always appreciate a substantive debate.
1. I understand what you are saying about the death/case stats. They are important when tracking trends within a country and working to mitigate the spread. The problem is, Trump is using those stats to brag about how great we are compared to other countries. Once you go there you aren't comparing like items. The only way to properly compare the effects of the virus in our country vs other countries is to look at deaths vs population and in that stat we are failing. The NY NJ nursing home accusation is a much larger debate which I would challenge your premise but lets not go there right now.
2. I get that Trump wants the economy to open, but when can you point to him encouraging people to take this seriously and commit to safe practices. Go back as far as you want, to the beginning of the shut down... People needed and still need to take this thing seriously and Trump has been downplaying it the whole time and literally encouraging the types of behavior that lead to more spread. You said "leading a horse to water" What exactly has Trump done to lead the horses to water and encourage the type of behavior that slows the spread? Can you point to some examples?
I'm also a PE. So we both know our numbers.
1. I disagree that the "only way to properly compare the effects of the virus" vs other countries is deaths/pop. As you said initially, the deaths/case stat tracks how the US is doing over time as the medications improve. My argument against comparing countries is that we have no way of knowing if their numbers are accurate. So comparing countries is still apples to oranges, no matter what "squishy" numbers you compare.
2. I can recall Pence, Birx, and Fauci recommending washing hands, distancing, masks. Then I recall "covid parties", bars open, crowded beaches, and BLM protests, etc. Until the population complies with guidance the virus will spread.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.
White House urges Americans to wear cloth face coverings in public in bid to slow coronavirus spread
President Trump announced new guidance encouraging Americans to wear homemade face coverings when in public in an effort to prevent further spread of the novel coronavirus.
hell, it's even "squishy" state to state, county to county here in the US.
iceberg
Diamond Member
- May 15, 2017
- 36,788
- 14,920
You actually make two good points, I'm glad you chimed in. More testing is going to Statistically show more cases that is true. It it also gives opportunity to slow the spread as identifying cases leads to quarantine, early treatment and contact tracing which ultimately leads to less cases over time. The interviewer, who is very middle of the road and spends a lot of time on Fox, was asking about the death rate in relation to population with really is a more relevant stat. Trump, first failed to explain how we are "over testing" by referencing some unnamed books and manuals, and then he said the only death stats that we can look at are deaths per cases... This makes no sense. Be honest... It really makes no sense.
Damn right we're voting for Trump again. I saw the entire interview. The interviewer just couldn't get past the democrat talking points. I can give you one example:
The US has so many infected because we test much more than other countries. That is a fact, yet the democrats don't grasp it. Here is the explanation:
1. Other countries do not test until the person enters the hospital with symptoms.
Take India for example, 20m tests and 15,000 tests/1m people, 1.9m cases found.
The US did 61m tests, and 186,000 tests/1m people, 4.9m cases found.
So it is not surprising that in the US we found many more cases (3x) by testing 10x more people per million.
In India there are many more "asymptomatic" or "mildly symptomatic" cases undetected, that would show positive in the US.
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
2. Trump's handling of the pandemic is totally dependent on citizens mitigating risk. If people party and don't social distance, and have covid parties, then the infection spreads. If people act responsibly, and wear masks, the pandemic can be reduced, see the attached chart. Trump can only lead the horses to water, he can't make them drink.
View attachment 371221
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
2. I totally agree about mitigating risk and this is where I think Trump has made his biggest misstep of leadership. He isn't leading horses to water, he is leading them to slaughter. He has been downplaying this virus from the beginning. Instead of being honest about the seriousness of the situation he has tried to dismiss it and score political points. He hasn't promoted masks or social distancing. He has held the largest group event since the shutdown with the Tulsa rally and then Tulsa spiked in cases a few weeks later. Thats crazy. It took him 3 months to finally say people should wear a mask. He had a few measured and read statements about and then when right back to his "Open it all up" attitude. That is just crazy and irresponsible. Do you not see it? Did you not see how he spun and lied through out that entire interview?
1. I watch FXN all day and don't recall ever seeing the Brit interviewer. He's from Axios. The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves.
2. We disagree. Trump has multiple responsibilities, he needs to address COVID-19 and keep the US economy up and running. I agree with Trump. He is doing a much better job with the pandemic and the economy than Biden could do, and you know it. Biden can't find his ass with both hands.
you actually did respond to my reply and I was the on that missed it. My bad.
1. Dana Parino is a big fan of swan so he appears on her show often and he is a regular on Special report with Bret Bair.
You didn’t address my point about death rate per population. That is really the most relevant stat to see how the virus has effected a country. The stat the Trump tours is deaths per cases which is dependent on the number of tests/cases identified. Since we test more than most countries then of course that number is going to be low. You see that right?
2. how can you think Trump is guiding the public in a responsible way? You admit that the virus is spread by people gathering and not social distancing. We see example after example of Trump promoting this type of behavior and belittling the recommended guidelines of cautionary actions that his own task force is coming out with.
1. Apology accepted, thanks. I miss stuff on occasion too. I like that you debate ideas and facts instead of slinging crap in a TDS food fight. This response is copied from my post #15. So the answer is, it depends if you want better numbers or worse numbers. I made a good living proving answers mathematically that the bosses want.
"The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves."
So look at each case:
a. Deaths per population:
The downside of this is that it doesn't capture trends, it is a much slower moving number. For example, when NY & NJ killed off their nursing home population, those "preventable" deaths stay in the number of "dead/population". Making the ratio look worse than it is. Not a good tool for tracking progress vs the virus.
b. Deaths per cases:
Its important to plot deaths/cases/month to show trends. Are we gaining or is the virus gaining? Look at the high deaths in NY & NJ at the start. Those deaths are "outliers" today. The stat that is most important is "are we winning or is the virus winning?"
I agree that using "deaths/cases/month" is a much more current statistic for how the nation is doing vs the pandemic. As treatments improve, death rates drop. Convalescent plasma and Remdesivir are game changers, as even more effective therapies are approved, the deaths/case will continue to drop. Agree that more testing means more cases and a lower ratio. But the "deaths/cases" ratio on a "per month" basis is the most accurate way to capture how we are doing vs the virus over time.
2. Trump always advises people to mitigate. He also needs the economy to reopen. Its a tough job when people keep partying. When the population "complies" we will beat COVID-19. Until then its not Trump's fault. It's China's fault.
at this point, i'll just wish you luck on this convo.
Slade3200
Diamond Member
- Jan 13, 2016
- 66,753
- 16,962
- Thread starter
- #107
You actually make two good points, I'm glad you chimed in. More testing is going to Statistically show more cases that is true. It it also gives opportunity to slow the spread as identifying cases leads to quarantine, early treatment and contact tracing which ultimately leads to less cases over time. The interviewer, who is very middle of the road and spends a lot of time on Fox, was asking about the death rate in relation to population with really is a more relevant stat. Trump, first failed to explain how we are "over testing" by referencing some unnamed books and manuals, and then he said the only death stats that we can look at are deaths per cases... This makes no sense. Be honest... It really makes no sense.
Damn right we're voting for Trump again. I saw the entire interview. The interviewer just couldn't get past the democrat talking points. I can give you one example:
The US has so many infected because we test much more than other countries. That is a fact, yet the democrats don't grasp it. Here is the explanation:
1. Other countries do not test until the person enters the hospital with symptoms.
Take India for example, 20m tests and 15,000 tests/1m people, 1.9m cases found.
The US did 61m tests, and 186,000 tests/1m people, 4.9m cases found.
So it is not surprising that in the US we found many more cases (3x) by testing 10x more people per million.
In India there are many more "asymptomatic" or "mildly symptomatic" cases undetected, that would show positive in the US.
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
2. Trump's handling of the pandemic is totally dependent on citizens mitigating risk. If people party and don't social distance, and have covid parties, then the infection spreads. If people act responsibly, and wear masks, the pandemic can be reduced, see the attached chart. Trump can only lead the horses to water, he can't make them drink.
View attachment 371221
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
2. I totally agree about mitigating risk and this is where I think Trump has made his biggest misstep of leadership. He isn't leading horses to water, he is leading them to slaughter. He has been downplaying this virus from the beginning. Instead of being honest about the seriousness of the situation he has tried to dismiss it and score political points. He hasn't promoted masks or social distancing. He has held the largest group event since the shutdown with the Tulsa rally and then Tulsa spiked in cases a few weeks later. Thats crazy. It took him 3 months to finally say people should wear a mask. He had a few measured and read statements about and then when right back to his "Open it all up" attitude. That is just crazy and irresponsible. Do you not see it? Did you not see how he spun and lied through out that entire interview?
1. I watch FXN all day and don't recall ever seeing the Brit interviewer. He's from Axios. The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves.
2. We disagree. Trump has multiple responsibilities, he needs to address COVID-19 and keep the US economy up and running. I agree with Trump. He is doing a much better job with the pandemic and the economy than Biden could do, and you know it. Biden can't find his ass with both hands.
you actually did respond to my reply and I was the on that missed it. My bad.
1. Dana Parino is a big fan of swan so he appears on her show often and he is a regular on Special report with Bret Bair.
You didn’t address my point about death rate per population. That is really the most relevant stat to see how the virus has effected a country. The stat the Trump tours is deaths per cases which is dependent on the number of tests/cases identified. Since we test more than most countries then of course that number is going to be low. You see that right?
2. how can you think Trump is guiding the public in a responsible way? You admit that the virus is spread by people gathering and not social distancing. We see example after example of Trump promoting this type of behavior and belittling the recommended guidelines of cautionary actions that his own task force is coming out with.
1. Apology accepted, thanks. I miss stuff on occasion too. I like that you debate ideas and facts instead of slinging crap in a TDS food fight. This response is copied from my post #15. So the answer is, it depends if you want better numbers or worse numbers. I made a good living proving answers mathematically that the bosses want.
"The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves."
So look at each case:
a. Deaths per population:
The downside of this is that it doesn't capture trends, it is a much slower moving number. For example, when NY & NJ killed off their nursing home population, those "preventable" deaths stay in the number of "dead/population". Making the ratio look worse than it is. Not a good tool for tracking progress vs the virus.
b. Deaths per cases:
Its important to plot deaths/cases/month to show trends. Are we gaining or is the virus gaining? Look at the high deaths in NY & NJ at the start. Those deaths are "outliers" today. The stat that is most important is "are we winning or is the virus winning?"
I agree that using "deaths/cases/month" is a much more current statistic for how the nation is doing vs the pandemic. As treatments improve, death rates drop. Convalescent plasma and Remdesivir are game changers, as even more effective therapies are approved, the deaths/case will continue to drop. Agree that more testing means more cases and a lower ratio. But the "deaths/cases" ratio on a "per month" basis is the most accurate way to capture how we are doing vs the virus over time.
2. Trump always advises people to mitigate. He also needs the economy to reopen. Its a tough job when people keep partying. When the population "complies" we will beat COVID-19. Until then its not Trump's fault. It's China's fault.
I'm an engineer so I lean into the analytical and not the puff puff opinion stuff. So I always appreciate a substantive debate.
1. I understand what you are saying about the death/case stats. They are important when tracking trends within a country and working to mitigate the spread. The problem is, Trump is using those stats to brag about how great we are compared to other countries. Once you go there you aren't comparing like items. The only way to properly compare the effects of the virus in our country vs other countries is to look at deaths vs population and in that stat we are failing. The NY NJ nursing home accusation is a much larger debate which I would challenge your premise but lets not go there right now.
2. I get that Trump wants the economy to open, but when can you point to him encouraging people to take this seriously and commit to safe practices. Go back as far as you want, to the beginning of the shut down... People needed and still need to take this thing seriously and Trump has been downplaying it the whole time and literally encouraging the types of behavior that lead to more spread. You said "leading a horse to water" What exactly has Trump done to lead the horses to water and encourage the type of behavior that slows the spread? Can you point to some examples?
I'm also a PE. So we both know our numbers.
1. I disagree that the "only way to properly compare the effects of the virus" vs other countries is deaths/pop. As you said initially, the deaths/case stat tracks how the US is doing over time as the medications improve. My argument against comparing countries is that we have no way of knowing if their numbers are accurate. So comparing countries is still apples to oranges, no matter what "squishy" numbers you compare.
2. I can recall Pence, Birx, and Fauci recommending washing hands, distancing, masks. Then I recall "covid parties", bars open, crowded beaches, and BLM protests, etc. Until the population complies with guidance the virus will spread.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.
White House urges Americans to wear cloth face coverings in public in bid to slow coronavirus spread
President Trump announced new guidance encouraging Americans to wear homemade face coverings when in public in an effort to prevent further spread of the novel coronavirus.
1. I've heard that response, that you can't trust the other countries numbers. If thats what you are going with then there is nothing more to discuss. I can't prove the numbers are accurate and you can't prove they are false so the debate in then over. But if thats the case then we should both be in agreement that the comparisons that Trump is touting when he said we are doing better than the world with death rate is BS, right?
2. I recall Pence, Fauci, and Birx making those recommendations too. And then Trump tweeting and taking actions that promoted the opposite. Can you find any examples of TRUMP leading the horses to water? Because I have dozens showing him doing the opposite.
sartre play
Gold Member
- May 4, 2015
- 10,279
- 3,239
I noticed that your rebuke of the interviewer was to insult his size not his questions. Like he should be judged by how tall he is, as if he had control over that? personal insults rule over measured reply's.
kyzr
Diamond Member
- Oct 14, 2009
- 36,866
- 28,158
You actually make two good points, I'm glad you chimed in. More testing is going to Statistically show more cases that is true. It it also gives opportunity to slow the spread as identifying cases leads to quarantine, early treatment and contact tracing which ultimately leads to less cases over time. The interviewer, who is very middle of the road and spends a lot of time on Fox, was asking about the death rate in relation to population with really is a more relevant stat. Trump, first failed to explain how we are "over testing" by referencing some unnamed books and manuals, and then he said the only death stats that we can look at are deaths per cases... This makes no sense. Be honest... It really makes no sense.
Damn right we're voting for Trump again. I saw the entire interview. The interviewer just couldn't get past the democrat talking points. I can give you one example:
The US has so many infected because we test much more than other countries. That is a fact, yet the democrats don't grasp it. Here is the explanation:
1. Other countries do not test until the person enters the hospital with symptoms.
Take India for example, 20m tests and 15,000 tests/1m people, 1.9m cases found.
The US did 61m tests, and 186,000 tests/1m people, 4.9m cases found.
So it is not surprising that in the US we found many more cases (3x) by testing 10x more people per million.
In India there are many more "asymptomatic" or "mildly symptomatic" cases undetected, that would show positive in the US.
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
2. Trump's handling of the pandemic is totally dependent on citizens mitigating risk. If people party and don't social distance, and have covid parties, then the infection spreads. If people act responsibly, and wear masks, the pandemic can be reduced, see the attached chart. Trump can only lead the horses to water, he can't make them drink.
View attachment 371221
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
2. I totally agree about mitigating risk and this is where I think Trump has made his biggest misstep of leadership. He isn't leading horses to water, he is leading them to slaughter. He has been downplaying this virus from the beginning. Instead of being honest about the seriousness of the situation he has tried to dismiss it and score political points. He hasn't promoted masks or social distancing. He has held the largest group event since the shutdown with the Tulsa rally and then Tulsa spiked in cases a few weeks later. Thats crazy. It took him 3 months to finally say people should wear a mask. He had a few measured and read statements about and then when right back to his "Open it all up" attitude. That is just crazy and irresponsible. Do you not see it? Did you not see how he spun and lied through out that entire interview?
1. I watch FXN all day and don't recall ever seeing the Brit interviewer. He's from Axios. The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves.
2. We disagree. Trump has multiple responsibilities, he needs to address COVID-19 and keep the US economy up and running. I agree with Trump. He is doing a much better job with the pandemic and the economy than Biden could do, and you know it. Biden can't find his ass with both hands.
you actually did respond to my reply and I was the on that missed it. My bad.
1. Dana Parino is a big fan of swan so he appears on her show often and he is a regular on Special report with Bret Bair.
You didn’t address my point about death rate per population. That is really the most relevant stat to see how the virus has effected a country. The stat the Trump tours is deaths per cases which is dependent on the number of tests/cases identified. Since we test more than most countries then of course that number is going to be low. You see that right?
2. how can you think Trump is guiding the public in a responsible way? You admit that the virus is spread by people gathering and not social distancing. We see example after example of Trump promoting this type of behavior and belittling the recommended guidelines of cautionary actions that his own task force is coming out with.
1. Apology accepted, thanks. I miss stuff on occasion too. I like that you debate ideas and facts instead of slinging crap in a TDS food fight. This response is copied from my post #15. So the answer is, it depends if you want better numbers or worse numbers. I made a good living proving answers mathematically that the bosses want.
"The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves."
So look at each case:
a. Deaths per population:
The downside of this is that it doesn't capture trends, it is a much slower moving number. For example, when NY & NJ killed off their nursing home population, those "preventable" deaths stay in the number of "dead/population". Making the ratio look worse than it is. Not a good tool for tracking progress vs the virus.
b. Deaths per cases:
Its important to plot deaths/cases/month to show trends. Are we gaining or is the virus gaining? Look at the high deaths in NY & NJ at the start. Those deaths are "outliers" today. The stat that is most important is "are we winning or is the virus winning?"
I agree that using "deaths/cases/month" is a much more current statistic for how the nation is doing vs the pandemic. As treatments improve, death rates drop. Convalescent plasma and Remdesivir are game changers, as even more effective therapies are approved, the deaths/case will continue to drop. Agree that more testing means more cases and a lower ratio. But the "deaths/cases" ratio on a "per month" basis is the most accurate way to capture how we are doing vs the virus over time.
2. Trump always advises people to mitigate. He also needs the economy to reopen. Its a tough job when people keep partying. When the population "complies" we will beat COVID-19. Until then its not Trump's fault. It's China's fault.
I'm an engineer so I lean into the analytical and not the puff puff opinion stuff. So I always appreciate a substantive debate.
1. I understand what you are saying about the death/case stats. They are important when tracking trends within a country and working to mitigate the spread. The problem is, Trump is using those stats to brag about how great we are compared to other countries. Once you go there you aren't comparing like items. The only way to properly compare the effects of the virus in our country vs other countries is to look at deaths vs population and in that stat we are failing. The NY NJ nursing home accusation is a much larger debate which I would challenge your premise but lets not go there right now.
2. I get that Trump wants the economy to open, but when can you point to him encouraging people to take this seriously and commit to safe practices. Go back as far as you want, to the beginning of the shut down... People needed and still need to take this thing seriously and Trump has been downplaying it the whole time and literally encouraging the types of behavior that lead to more spread. You said "leading a horse to water" What exactly has Trump done to lead the horses to water and encourage the type of behavior that slows the spread? Can you point to some examples?
I'm also a PE. So we both know our numbers.
1. I disagree that the "only way to properly compare the effects of the virus" vs other countries is deaths/pop. As you said initially, the deaths/case stat tracks how the US is doing over time as the medications improve. My argument against comparing countries is that we have no way of knowing if their numbers are accurate. So comparing countries is still apples to oranges, no matter what "squishy" numbers you compare.
2. I can recall Pence, Birx, and Fauci recommending washing hands, distancing, masks. Then I recall "covid parties", bars open, crowded beaches, and BLM protests, etc. Until the population complies with guidance the virus will spread.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.
White House urges Americans to wear cloth face coverings in public in bid to slow coronavirus spread
President Trump announced new guidance encouraging Americans to wear homemade face coverings when in public in an effort to prevent further spread of the novel coronavirus.
1. I've heard that response, that you can't trust the other countries numbers. If thats what you are going with then there is nothing more to discuss. I can't prove the numbers are accurate and you can't prove they are false so the debate in then over. But if thats the case then we should both be in agreement that the comparisons that Trump is touting when he said we are doing better than the world with death rate is BS, right?
2. I recall Pence, Fauci, and Birx making those recommendations too. And then Trump tweeting and taking actions that promoted the opposite. Can you find any examples of TRUMP leading the horses to water? Because I have dozens showing him doing the opposite.
1. Absolutely! Total BS. Trump brags on the US and his record, and the Trump haters try to use false comparisons to make him look bad. Its all partisan bullshit using squishy numbers. The only true numbers as far as I can tell are deaths/case/month here in the US to see if the medical research is gaining on covid. If we get a "magic bullet" therapy we win, if we don't we live with covid. Even vaccines are not 100% effective, like the flu vaccine, we get 40,000 flu deaths a year, and don't bat an eye.
2. Trump has two problems, keeping covid patients alive, and keeping the US economy alive. The problems are interrelated. Trump is a businessman not a medical professional, so he tends to promote saving the economy and hopes that the task force can work the pandemic medically. The doctors only care about patients and not the economy, they apparently think money grows on trees. The US can't keep printing money or we lose our economy. So I agree with you that Trump's focus has been too much on the economy and not enough on mitigation, but we can't shutdown again, the schools need to open, and we need to either defeat covid or learn to live with it.
Trump should start and end every news conference with a reminder about mitigation measures, and to work safely.
iceberg
Diamond Member
- May 15, 2017
- 36,788
- 14,920
seriously - how come the only view you will view as "honest" is if they agree with you?
what is the point of only talking to people you agree with and declaring the rest stupid and/or dishonest?
JoeB131
Diamond Member
- Jul 11, 2011
- 171,603
- 32,868
Yeah, because it doesn't make any sense. We have 25% of the deaths and 25% of the cases, even though we are 4% of the population. It's not because we are testing more, it's because we've failed to contain it compared to South Korea, let's say.
Slade3200
Diamond Member
- Jan 13, 2016
- 66,753
- 16,962
- Thread starter
- #112
You actually make two good points, I'm glad you chimed in. More testing is going to Statistically show more cases that is true. It it also gives opportunity to slow the spread as identifying cases leads to quarantine, early treatment and contact tracing which ultimately leads to less cases over time. The interviewer, who is very middle of the road and spends a lot of time on Fox, was asking about the death rate in relation to population with really is a more relevant stat. Trump, first failed to explain how we are "over testing" by referencing some unnamed books and manuals, and then he said the only death stats that we can look at are deaths per cases... This makes no sense. Be honest... It really makes no sense.
Damn right we're voting for Trump again. I saw the entire interview. The interviewer just couldn't get past the democrat talking points. I can give you one example:
The US has so many infected because we test much more than other countries. That is a fact, yet the democrats don't grasp it. Here is the explanation:
1. Other countries do not test until the person enters the hospital with symptoms.
Take India for example, 20m tests and 15,000 tests/1m people, 1.9m cases found.
The US did 61m tests, and 186,000 tests/1m people, 4.9m cases found.
So it is not surprising that in the US we found many more cases (3x) by testing 10x more people per million.
In India there are many more "asymptomatic" or "mildly symptomatic" cases undetected, that would show positive in the US.
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
2. Trump's handling of the pandemic is totally dependent on citizens mitigating risk. If people party and don't social distance, and have covid parties, then the infection spreads. If people act responsibly, and wear masks, the pandemic can be reduced, see the attached chart. Trump can only lead the horses to water, he can't make them drink.
View attachment 371221
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
2. I totally agree about mitigating risk and this is where I think Trump has made his biggest misstep of leadership. He isn't leading horses to water, he is leading them to slaughter. He has been downplaying this virus from the beginning. Instead of being honest about the seriousness of the situation he has tried to dismiss it and score political points. He hasn't promoted masks or social distancing. He has held the largest group event since the shutdown with the Tulsa rally and then Tulsa spiked in cases a few weeks later. Thats crazy. It took him 3 months to finally say people should wear a mask. He had a few measured and read statements about and then when right back to his "Open it all up" attitude. That is just crazy and irresponsible. Do you not see it? Did you not see how he spun and lied through out that entire interview?
1. I watch FXN all day and don't recall ever seeing the Brit interviewer. He's from Axios. The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves.
2. We disagree. Trump has multiple responsibilities, he needs to address COVID-19 and keep the US economy up and running. I agree with Trump. He is doing a much better job with the pandemic and the economy than Biden could do, and you know it. Biden can't find his ass with both hands.
you actually did respond to my reply and I was the on that missed it. My bad.
1. Dana Parino is a big fan of swan so he appears on her show often and he is a regular on Special report with Bret Bair.
You didn’t address my point about death rate per population. That is really the most relevant stat to see how the virus has effected a country. The stat the Trump tours is deaths per cases which is dependent on the number of tests/cases identified. Since we test more than most countries then of course that number is going to be low. You see that right?
2. how can you think Trump is guiding the public in a responsible way? You admit that the virus is spread by people gathering and not social distancing. We see example after example of Trump promoting this type of behavior and belittling the recommended guidelines of cautionary actions that his own task force is coming out with.
1. Apology accepted, thanks. I miss stuff on occasion too. I like that you debate ideas and facts instead of slinging crap in a TDS food fight. This response is copied from my post #15. So the answer is, it depends if you want better numbers or worse numbers. I made a good living proving answers mathematically that the bosses want.
"The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves."
So look at each case:
a. Deaths per population:
The downside of this is that it doesn't capture trends, it is a much slower moving number. For example, when NY & NJ killed off their nursing home population, those "preventable" deaths stay in the number of "dead/population". Making the ratio look worse than it is. Not a good tool for tracking progress vs the virus.
b. Deaths per cases:
Its important to plot deaths/cases/month to show trends. Are we gaining or is the virus gaining? Look at the high deaths in NY & NJ at the start. Those deaths are "outliers" today. The stat that is most important is "are we winning or is the virus winning?"
I agree that using "deaths/cases/month" is a much more current statistic for how the nation is doing vs the pandemic. As treatments improve, death rates drop. Convalescent plasma and Remdesivir are game changers, as even more effective therapies are approved, the deaths/case will continue to drop. Agree that more testing means more cases and a lower ratio. But the "deaths/cases" ratio on a "per month" basis is the most accurate way to capture how we are doing vs the virus over time.
2. Trump always advises people to mitigate. He also needs the economy to reopen. Its a tough job when people keep partying. When the population "complies" we will beat COVID-19. Until then its not Trump's fault. It's China's fault.
I'm an engineer so I lean into the analytical and not the puff puff opinion stuff. So I always appreciate a substantive debate.
1. I understand what you are saying about the death/case stats. They are important when tracking trends within a country and working to mitigate the spread. The problem is, Trump is using those stats to brag about how great we are compared to other countries. Once you go there you aren't comparing like items. The only way to properly compare the effects of the virus in our country vs other countries is to look at deaths vs population and in that stat we are failing. The NY NJ nursing home accusation is a much larger debate which I would challenge your premise but lets not go there right now.
2. I get that Trump wants the economy to open, but when can you point to him encouraging people to take this seriously and commit to safe practices. Go back as far as you want, to the beginning of the shut down... People needed and still need to take this thing seriously and Trump has been downplaying it the whole time and literally encouraging the types of behavior that lead to more spread. You said "leading a horse to water" What exactly has Trump done to lead the horses to water and encourage the type of behavior that slows the spread? Can you point to some examples?
I'm also a PE. So we both know our numbers.
1. I disagree that the "only way to properly compare the effects of the virus" vs other countries is deaths/pop. As you said initially, the deaths/case stat tracks how the US is doing over time as the medications improve. My argument against comparing countries is that we have no way of knowing if their numbers are accurate. So comparing countries is still apples to oranges, no matter what "squishy" numbers you compare.
2. I can recall Pence, Birx, and Fauci recommending washing hands, distancing, masks. Then I recall "covid parties", bars open, crowded beaches, and BLM protests, etc. Until the population complies with guidance the virus will spread.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.
White House urges Americans to wear cloth face coverings in public in bid to slow coronavirus spread
President Trump announced new guidance encouraging Americans to wear homemade face coverings when in public in an effort to prevent further spread of the novel coronavirus.
1. I've heard that response, that you can't trust the other countries numbers. If thats what you are going with then there is nothing more to discuss. I can't prove the numbers are accurate and you can't prove they are false so the debate in then over. But if thats the case then we should both be in agreement that the comparisons that Trump is touting when he said we are doing better than the world with death rate is BS, right?
2. I recall Pence, Fauci, and Birx making those recommendations too. And then Trump tweeting and taking actions that promoted the opposite. Can you find any examples of TRUMP leading the horses to water? Because I have dozens showing him doing the opposite.
1. Absolutely! Total BS. Trump brags on the US and his record, and the Trump haters try to use false comparisons to make him look bad. Its all partisan bullshit using squishy numbers. The only true numbers as far as I can tell are deaths/case/month here in the US to see if the medical research is gaining on covid. If we get a "magic bullet" therapy we win, if we don't we live with covid. Even vaccines are not 100% effective, like the flu vaccine, we get 40,000 flu deaths a year, and don't bat an eye.
2. Trump has two problems, keeping covid patients alive, and keeping the US economy alive. The problems are interrelated. Trump is a businessman not a medical professional, so he tends to promote saving the economy and hopes that the task force can work the pandemic medically. The doctors only care about patients and not the economy, they apparently think money grows on trees. The US can't keep printing money or we lose our economy. So I agree with you that Trump's focus has been too much on the economy and not enough on mitigation, but we can't shutdown again, the schools need to open, and we need to either defeat covid or learn to live with it.
Trump should start and end every news conference with a reminder about mitigation measures, and to work safely.
I think we've reached agreement on point #1. Way to go!
As for point #2... We are close, except for I think my point still stands about Trumps irresponsible handling and messaging of this pandemic. Yes he is a business man and not a medical professional, he assigned a task force to address COVID, yet he belittles and contradicts the task force professionals on a regular basis. The fastest way to reopen the economy, which we agree is Trumps goal, is to get the virus under control. If going back to March Trump would have promoted mask wearing and social distancing and treated this virus as the serious threat that it is I truly believe we would be in a much better spot right now. All Trump did was play politics though. Pretend like it was no big deal, try to brag and claim wins about everything, deflect responsibly to the states, and push to reopen, which many governors listened too and now we are seeing their states as the hotbeds for resurgence. There is a direct correlation. Trump did and is still doing the exact opposite of leading horses to water when it comes to addressing the pandemic. I know you agree since you haven't provided any examples of Trump promoting mitigating behavior. The few statements he has read about masks and distancing he contradicts usually in the next breath. We all know where he stands and in my opinion it is going to be his undoing.
basquebromance
Diamond Member
- Nov 26, 2015
- 109,396
- 27,040
why doesn't Biden do an interview with this pathetic British loon "Jonathan Swann" then?
dudmuck
Diamond Member
- Sep 4, 2017
- 16,163
- 9,397
Damn right we're voting for Trump again. I saw the entire interview. The interviewer just couldn't get past the democrat talking points. I can give you one example:
The US has so many infected because we test much more than other countries. That is a fact, yet the democrats don't grasp it. Here is the explanation:
1. Other countries do not test until the person enters the hospital with symptoms.
Take India for example, 20m tests and 15,000 tests/1m people, 1.9m cases found.
The US did 61m tests, and 186,000 tests/1m people, 4.9m cases found.
So it is not surprising that in the US we found many more cases (3x) by testing 10x more people per million.
In India there are many more "asymptomatic" or "mildly symptomatic" cases undetected, that would show positive in the US.
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
2. Trump's handling of the pandemic is totally dependent on citizens mitigating risk. If people party and don't social distance, and have covid parties, then the infection spreads. If people act responsibly, and wear masks, the pandemic can be reduced, see the attached chart. Trump can only lead the horses to water, he can't make them drink.
View attachment 371221
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
kyzr
Diamond Member
- Oct 14, 2009
- 36,866
- 28,158
You actually make two good points, I'm glad you chimed in. More testing is going to Statistically show more cases that is true. It it also gives opportunity to slow the spread as identifying cases leads to quarantine, early treatment and contact tracing which ultimately leads to less cases over time. The interviewer, who is very middle of the road and spends a lot of time on Fox, was asking about the death rate in relation to population with really is a more relevant stat. Trump, first failed to explain how we are "over testing" by referencing some unnamed books and manuals, and then he said the only death stats that we can look at are deaths per cases... This makes no sense. Be honest... It really makes no sense.
Damn right we're voting for Trump again. I saw the entire interview. The interviewer just couldn't get past the democrat talking points. I can give you one example:
The US has so many infected because we test much more than other countries. That is a fact, yet the democrats don't grasp it. Here is the explanation:
1. Other countries do not test until the person enters the hospital with symptoms.
Take India for example, 20m tests and 15,000 tests/1m people, 1.9m cases found.
The US did 61m tests, and 186,000 tests/1m people, 4.9m cases found.
So it is not surprising that in the US we found many more cases (3x) by testing 10x more people per million.
In India there are many more "asymptomatic" or "mildly symptomatic" cases undetected, that would show positive in the US.
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
2. Trump's handling of the pandemic is totally dependent on citizens mitigating risk. If people party and don't social distance, and have covid parties, then the infection spreads. If people act responsibly, and wear masks, the pandemic can be reduced, see the attached chart. Trump can only lead the horses to water, he can't make them drink.
View attachment 371221
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
2. I totally agree about mitigating risk and this is where I think Trump has made his biggest misstep of leadership. He isn't leading horses to water, he is leading them to slaughter. He has been downplaying this virus from the beginning. Instead of being honest about the seriousness of the situation he has tried to dismiss it and score political points. He hasn't promoted masks or social distancing. He has held the largest group event since the shutdown with the Tulsa rally and then Tulsa spiked in cases a few weeks later. Thats crazy. It took him 3 months to finally say people should wear a mask. He had a few measured and read statements about and then when right back to his "Open it all up" attitude. That is just crazy and irresponsible. Do you not see it? Did you not see how he spun and lied through out that entire interview?
1. I watch FXN all day and don't recall ever seeing the Brit interviewer. He's from Axios. The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves.
2. We disagree. Trump has multiple responsibilities, he needs to address COVID-19 and keep the US economy up and running. I agree with Trump. He is doing a much better job with the pandemic and the economy than Biden could do, and you know it. Biden can't find his ass with both hands.
you actually did respond to my reply and I was the on that missed it. My bad.
1. Dana Parino is a big fan of swan so he appears on her show often and he is a regular on Special report with Bret Bair.
You didn’t address my point about death rate per population. That is really the most relevant stat to see how the virus has effected a country. The stat the Trump tours is deaths per cases which is dependent on the number of tests/cases identified. Since we test more than most countries then of course that number is going to be low. You see that right?
2. how can you think Trump is guiding the public in a responsible way? You admit that the virus is spread by people gathering and not social distancing. We see example after example of Trump promoting this type of behavior and belittling the recommended guidelines of cautionary actions that his own task force is coming out with.
1. Apology accepted, thanks. I miss stuff on occasion too. I like that you debate ideas and facts instead of slinging crap in a TDS food fight. This response is copied from my post #15. So the answer is, it depends if you want better numbers or worse numbers. I made a good living proving answers mathematically that the bosses want.
"The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves."
So look at each case:
a. Deaths per population:
The downside of this is that it doesn't capture trends, it is a much slower moving number. For example, when NY & NJ killed off their nursing home population, those "preventable" deaths stay in the number of "dead/population". Making the ratio look worse than it is. Not a good tool for tracking progress vs the virus.
b. Deaths per cases:
Its important to plot deaths/cases/month to show trends. Are we gaining or is the virus gaining? Look at the high deaths in NY & NJ at the start. Those deaths are "outliers" today. The stat that is most important is "are we winning or is the virus winning?"
I agree that using "deaths/cases/month" is a much more current statistic for how the nation is doing vs the pandemic. As treatments improve, death rates drop. Convalescent plasma and Remdesivir are game changers, as even more effective therapies are approved, the deaths/case will continue to drop. Agree that more testing means more cases and a lower ratio. But the "deaths/cases" ratio on a "per month" basis is the most accurate way to capture how we are doing vs the virus over time.
2. Trump always advises people to mitigate. He also needs the economy to reopen. Its a tough job when people keep partying. When the population "complies" we will beat COVID-19. Until then its not Trump's fault. It's China's fault.
I'm an engineer so I lean into the analytical and not the puff puff opinion stuff. So I always appreciate a substantive debate.
1. I understand what you are saying about the death/case stats. They are important when tracking trends within a country and working to mitigate the spread. The problem is, Trump is using those stats to brag about how great we are compared to other countries. Once you go there you aren't comparing like items. The only way to properly compare the effects of the virus in our country vs other countries is to look at deaths vs population and in that stat we are failing. The NY NJ nursing home accusation is a much larger debate which I would challenge your premise but lets not go there right now.
2. I get that Trump wants the economy to open, but when can you point to him encouraging people to take this seriously and commit to safe practices. Go back as far as you want, to the beginning of the shut down... People needed and still need to take this thing seriously and Trump has been downplaying it the whole time and literally encouraging the types of behavior that lead to more spread. You said "leading a horse to water" What exactly has Trump done to lead the horses to water and encourage the type of behavior that slows the spread? Can you point to some examples?
I'm also a PE. So we both know our numbers.
1. I disagree that the "only way to properly compare the effects of the virus" vs other countries is deaths/pop. As you said initially, the deaths/case stat tracks how the US is doing over time as the medications improve. My argument against comparing countries is that we have no way of knowing if their numbers are accurate. So comparing countries is still apples to oranges, no matter what "squishy" numbers you compare.
2. I can recall Pence, Birx, and Fauci recommending washing hands, distancing, masks. Then I recall "covid parties", bars open, crowded beaches, and BLM protests, etc. Until the population complies with guidance the virus will spread.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.
White House urges Americans to wear cloth face coverings in public in bid to slow coronavirus spread
President Trump announced new guidance encouraging Americans to wear homemade face coverings when in public in an effort to prevent further spread of the novel coronavirus.
1. I've heard that response, that you can't trust the other countries numbers. If thats what you are going with then there is nothing more to discuss. I can't prove the numbers are accurate and you can't prove they are false so the debate in then over. But if thats the case then we should both be in agreement that the comparisons that Trump is touting when he said we are doing better than the world with death rate is BS, right?
2. I recall Pence, Fauci, and Birx making those recommendations too. And then Trump tweeting and taking actions that promoted the opposite. Can you find any examples of TRUMP leading the horses to water? Because I have dozens showing him doing the opposite.
1. Absolutely! Total BS. Trump brags on the US and his record, and the Trump haters try to use false comparisons to make him look bad. Its all partisan bullshit using squishy numbers. The only true numbers as far as I can tell are deaths/case/month here in the US to see if the medical research is gaining on covid. If we get a "magic bullet" therapy we win, if we don't we live with covid. Even vaccines are not 100% effective, like the flu vaccine, we get 40,000 flu deaths a year, and don't bat an eye.
2. Trump has two problems, keeping covid patients alive, and keeping the US economy alive. The problems are interrelated. Trump is a businessman not a medical professional, so he tends to promote saving the economy and hopes that the task force can work the pandemic medically. The doctors only care about patients and not the economy, they apparently think money grows on trees. The US can't keep printing money or we lose our economy. So I agree with you that Trump's focus has been too much on the economy and not enough on mitigation, but we can't shutdown again, the schools need to open, and we need to either defeat covid or learn to live with it.
Trump should start and end every news conference with a reminder about mitigation measures, and to work safely.
I think we've reached agreement on point #1. Way to go!
As for point #2... We are close, except for I think my point still stands about Trumps irresponsible handling and messaging of this pandemic. Yes he is a business man and not a medical professional, he assigned a task force to address COVID, yet he belittles and contradicts the task force professionals on a regular basis. The fastest way to reopen the economy, which we agree is Trumps goal, is to get the virus under control. If going back to March Trump would have promoted mask wearing and social distancing and treated this virus as the serious threat that it is I truly believe we would be in a much better spot right now. All Trump did was play politics though. Pretend like it was no big deal, try to brag and claim wins about everything, deflect responsibly to the states, and push to reopen, which many governors listened too and now we are seeing their states as the hotbeds for resurgence. There is a direct correlation. Trump did and is still doing the exact opposite of leading horses to water when it comes to addressing the pandemic. I know you agree since you haven't provided any examples of Trump promoting mitigating behavior. The few statements he has read about masks and distancing he contradicts usually in the next breath. We all know where he stands and in my opinion it is going to be his undoing.
Its a fine line between "irresponsible messaging" and "skewed or incomplete messaging" based on conflicting and incorrect information. Trump apparently wanted to avoid a panic and everyone heading for the basement in terror. The initial info out of China and the WHO was conflicting and mostly wrong. "There was no human to human transmission"?? WTF? The CDC couldn't do adequate testing early on, etc. Should Trump shutdown air travel from China? Yes, he shut it down, a great decision. The democrats went nuts calling him xenophobic and racist. Then Nancy promotes going out to Chinatown?!
Hindsight being 20/20, I agree Trump did an okay job, probably way better than any PC democrat could have done handling the pandemic. Trump kept the "curve" flatter and within the medical system capacity by stopping flights from China so early. Could Trump have been more serious promoting masks, distancing, and avoiding crowds? Yes, sure, early on. But then there was a battle to reopen the economy or not. Many governors were keeping their states locked-down, and Trump wanted to avoid too many bankruptcies. He did not want to give the governors an excuse to stay shutdown. Right now about 50% of US restaurants are closed permanently. So Trump probably wanted to promote "normalcy" to save jobs and businesses, instead of the "new normal", that being normal but with masks and distancing.
I know this pandemic is China's fault, no one else's.
Last edited:
Slade3200
Diamond Member
- Jan 13, 2016
- 66,753
- 16,962
- Thread starter
- #117
You actually make two good points, I'm glad you chimed in. More testing is going to Statistically show more cases that is true. It it also gives opportunity to slow the spread as identifying cases leads to quarantine, early treatment and contact tracing which ultimately leads to less cases over time. The interviewer, who is very middle of the road and spends a lot of time on Fox, was asking about the death rate in relation to population with really is a more relevant stat. Trump, first failed to explain how we are "over testing" by referencing some unnamed books and manuals, and then he said the only death stats that we can look at are deaths per cases... This makes no sense. Be honest... It really makes no sense.
Damn right we're voting for Trump again. I saw the entire interview. The interviewer just couldn't get past the democrat talking points. I can give you one example:
The US has so many infected because we test much more than other countries. That is a fact, yet the democrats don't grasp it. Here is the explanation:
1. Other countries do not test until the person enters the hospital with symptoms.
Take India for example, 20m tests and 15,000 tests/1m people, 1.9m cases found.
The US did 61m tests, and 186,000 tests/1m people, 4.9m cases found.
So it is not surprising that in the US we found many more cases (3x) by testing 10x more people per million.
In India there are many more "asymptomatic" or "mildly symptomatic" cases undetected, that would show positive in the US.
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
2. Trump's handling of the pandemic is totally dependent on citizens mitigating risk. If people party and don't social distance, and have covid parties, then the infection spreads. If people act responsibly, and wear masks, the pandemic can be reduced, see the attached chart. Trump can only lead the horses to water, he can't make them drink.
View attachment 371221
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
2. I totally agree about mitigating risk and this is where I think Trump has made his biggest misstep of leadership. He isn't leading horses to water, he is leading them to slaughter. He has been downplaying this virus from the beginning. Instead of being honest about the seriousness of the situation he has tried to dismiss it and score political points. He hasn't promoted masks or social distancing. He has held the largest group event since the shutdown with the Tulsa rally and then Tulsa spiked in cases a few weeks later. Thats crazy. It took him 3 months to finally say people should wear a mask. He had a few measured and read statements about and then when right back to his "Open it all up" attitude. That is just crazy and irresponsible. Do you not see it? Did you not see how he spun and lied through out that entire interview?
1. I watch FXN all day and don't recall ever seeing the Brit interviewer. He's from Axios. The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves.
2. We disagree. Trump has multiple responsibilities, he needs to address COVID-19 and keep the US economy up and running. I agree with Trump. He is doing a much better job with the pandemic and the economy than Biden could do, and you know it. Biden can't find his ass with both hands.
you actually did respond to my reply and I was the on that missed it. My bad.
1. Dana Parino is a big fan of swan so he appears on her show often and he is a regular on Special report with Bret Bair.
You didn’t address my point about death rate per population. That is really the most relevant stat to see how the virus has effected a country. The stat the Trump tours is deaths per cases which is dependent on the number of tests/cases identified. Since we test more than most countries then of course that number is going to be low. You see that right?
2. how can you think Trump is guiding the public in a responsible way? You admit that the virus is spread by people gathering and not social distancing. We see example after example of Trump promoting this type of behavior and belittling the recommended guidelines of cautionary actions that his own task force is coming out with.
1. Apology accepted, thanks. I miss stuff on occasion too. I like that you debate ideas and facts instead of slinging crap in a TDS food fight. This response is copied from my post #15. So the answer is, it depends if you want better numbers or worse numbers. I made a good living proving answers mathematically that the bosses want.
"The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves."
So look at each case:
a. Deaths per population:
The downside of this is that it doesn't capture trends, it is a much slower moving number. For example, when NY & NJ killed off their nursing home population, those "preventable" deaths stay in the number of "dead/population". Making the ratio look worse than it is. Not a good tool for tracking progress vs the virus.
b. Deaths per cases:
Its important to plot deaths/cases/month to show trends. Are we gaining or is the virus gaining? Look at the high deaths in NY & NJ at the start. Those deaths are "outliers" today. The stat that is most important is "are we winning or is the virus winning?"
I agree that using "deaths/cases/month" is a much more current statistic for how the nation is doing vs the pandemic. As treatments improve, death rates drop. Convalescent plasma and Remdesivir are game changers, as even more effective therapies are approved, the deaths/case will continue to drop. Agree that more testing means more cases and a lower ratio. But the "deaths/cases" ratio on a "per month" basis is the most accurate way to capture how we are doing vs the virus over time.
2. Trump always advises people to mitigate. He also needs the economy to reopen. Its a tough job when people keep partying. When the population "complies" we will beat COVID-19. Until then its not Trump's fault. It's China's fault.
I'm an engineer so I lean into the analytical and not the puff puff opinion stuff. So I always appreciate a substantive debate.
1. I understand what you are saying about the death/case stats. They are important when tracking trends within a country and working to mitigate the spread. The problem is, Trump is using those stats to brag about how great we are compared to other countries. Once you go there you aren't comparing like items. The only way to properly compare the effects of the virus in our country vs other countries is to look at deaths vs population and in that stat we are failing. The NY NJ nursing home accusation is a much larger debate which I would challenge your premise but lets not go there right now.
2. I get that Trump wants the economy to open, but when can you point to him encouraging people to take this seriously and commit to safe practices. Go back as far as you want, to the beginning of the shut down... People needed and still need to take this thing seriously and Trump has been downplaying it the whole time and literally encouraging the types of behavior that lead to more spread. You said "leading a horse to water" What exactly has Trump done to lead the horses to water and encourage the type of behavior that slows the spread? Can you point to some examples?
I'm also a PE. So we both know our numbers.
1. I disagree that the "only way to properly compare the effects of the virus" vs other countries is deaths/pop. As you said initially, the deaths/case stat tracks how the US is doing over time as the medications improve. My argument against comparing countries is that we have no way of knowing if their numbers are accurate. So comparing countries is still apples to oranges, no matter what "squishy" numbers you compare.
2. I can recall Pence, Birx, and Fauci recommending washing hands, distancing, masks. Then I recall "covid parties", bars open, crowded beaches, and BLM protests, etc. Until the population complies with guidance the virus will spread.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.
White House urges Americans to wear cloth face coverings in public in bid to slow coronavirus spread
President Trump announced new guidance encouraging Americans to wear homemade face coverings when in public in an effort to prevent further spread of the novel coronavirus.
1. I've heard that response, that you can't trust the other countries numbers. If thats what you are going with then there is nothing more to discuss. I can't prove the numbers are accurate and you can't prove they are false so the debate in then over. But if thats the case then we should both be in agreement that the comparisons that Trump is touting when he said we are doing better than the world with death rate is BS, right?
2. I recall Pence, Fauci, and Birx making those recommendations too. And then Trump tweeting and taking actions that promoted the opposite. Can you find any examples of TRUMP leading the horses to water? Because I have dozens showing him doing the opposite.
1. Absolutely! Total BS. Trump brags on the US and his record, and the Trump haters try to use false comparisons to make him look bad. Its all partisan bullshit using squishy numbers. The only true numbers as far as I can tell are deaths/case/month here in the US to see if the medical research is gaining on covid. If we get a "magic bullet" therapy we win, if we don't we live with covid. Even vaccines are not 100% effective, like the flu vaccine, we get 40,000 flu deaths a year, and don't bat an eye.
2. Trump has two problems, keeping covid patients alive, and keeping the US economy alive. The problems are interrelated. Trump is a businessman not a medical professional, so he tends to promote saving the economy and hopes that the task force can work the pandemic medically. The doctors only care about patients and not the economy, they apparently think money grows on trees. The US can't keep printing money or we lose our economy. So I agree with you that Trump's focus has been too much on the economy and not enough on mitigation, but we can't shutdown again, the schools need to open, and we need to either defeat covid or learn to live with it.
Trump should start and end every news conference with a reminder about mitigation measures, and to work safely.
I think we've reached agreement on point #1. Way to go!
As for point #2... We are close, except for I think my point still stands about Trumps irresponsible handling and messaging of this pandemic. Yes he is a business man and not a medical professional, he assigned a task force to address COVID, yet he belittles and contradicts the task force professionals on a regular basis. The fastest way to reopen the economy, which we agree is Trumps goal, is to get the virus under control. If going back to March Trump would have promoted mask wearing and social distancing and treated this virus as the serious threat that it is I truly believe we would be in a much better spot right now. All Trump did was play politics though. Pretend like it was no big deal, try to brag and claim wins about everything, deflect responsibly to the states, and push to reopen, which many governors listened too and now we are seeing their states as the hotbeds for resurgence. There is a direct correlation. Trump did and is still doing the exact opposite of leading horses to water when it comes to addressing the pandemic. I know you agree since you haven't provided any examples of Trump promoting mitigating behavior. The few statements he has read about masks and distancing he contradicts usually in the next breath. We all know where he stands and in my opinion it is going to be his undoing.
Its a fine line between "irresponsible messaging" and "skewed or incomplete messaging" based on conflicting and incorrect information. Trump apparently wanted to avoid a panic and everyone heading for the basement in terror. The initial info out of China and the WHO was conflicting and mostly wrong. "There was no human to human transmission"?? WTF? The CDC couldn't do adequate testing early on, etc. Should Trump shutdown air travel from China? Yes, he shut it down, a great decision. The democrats went nuts calling him xenophobic and racist. Then Nancy promotes going out to Chinatown?!
Hindsight being 20/20, I agree Trump did an okay job, probably way better than any PC democrat could have done handling the pandemic. Trump kept the "curve" flatter and within the medical system capacity by stopping flights from China so early. Could Trump have been more serious promoting masks, distancing, and avoiding crowds? Yes, sure, early on. But then there was a battle to reopen the economy or not. Many governors were keeping their states locked-down, and Trump wanted to avoid too many bankruptcies. He did not want to give the governors an excuse to stay shutdown. Right now about 50% of US restaurants are closed permanently. So Trump probably wanted to promote "normalcy" to save jobs and businesses, instead of the "new normal", that being normal but with masks and distancing.
I know this pandemic is China's fault, no one else's.
You sound like an intelligent person so I'm confused on how you don't see the correlation between Trumps messaging and the spread of the virus. It is very simple in my mind. There was a period of a few months April and May when we needed to take this shut down seriously. Wear masks and social distance. Instead of encouraging that kind of behavior he played tough guy talking about going to Easter mass and refusing to wear a mask or promote mask wearing. He belittled the seriousness of the virus, made fun of people who were taking it seriously, and threw seeds of doubt in everything and everyone that urged caution. That was the opportunity to get this thing under control. Instead he kept pushing for reopening and he got what he wanted in some states. Georgia was the first to move and Florida next... Look what happened! Is it really a mystery why the cases spiked in those states. Now 1000s a day are dying and Florida is the worlds hotbed. All helped by political games that Trump was playing. You have to see that. Safety and reopening did not need to fight each other, we could have worked together on this thing but Trump is not a person capable of that kind of unification which is why in my opinion he belongs no where near the White House.
Last edited:
- Jun 23, 2019
- 17,060
- 14,831
You actually make two good points, I'm glad you chimed in. More testing is going to Statistically show more cases that is true. It it also gives opportunity to slow the spread as identifying cases leads to quarantine, early treatment and contact tracing which ultimately leads to less cases over time. The interviewer, who is very middle of the road and spends a lot of time on Fox, was asking about the death rate in relation to population with really is a more relevant stat. Trump, first failed to explain how we are "over testing" by referencing some unnamed books and manuals, and then he said the only death stats that we can look at are deaths per cases... This makes no sense. Be honest... It really makes no sense.
Damn right we're voting for Trump again. I saw the entire interview. The interviewer just couldn't get past the democrat talking points. I can give you one example:
The US has so many infected because we test much more than other countries. That is a fact, yet the democrats don't grasp it. Here is the explanation:
1. Other countries do not test until the person enters the hospital with symptoms.
Take India for example, 20m tests and 15,000 tests/1m people, 1.9m cases found.
The US did 61m tests, and 186,000 tests/1m people, 4.9m cases found.
So it is not surprising that in the US we found many more cases (3x) by testing 10x more people per million.
In India there are many more "asymptomatic" or "mildly symptomatic" cases undetected, that would show positive in the US.
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
2. Trump's handling of the pandemic is totally dependent on citizens mitigating risk. If people party and don't social distance, and have covid parties, then the infection spreads. If people act responsibly, and wear masks, the pandemic can be reduced, see the attached chart. Trump can only lead the horses to water, he can't make them drink.
View attachment 371221
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
2. I totally agree about mitigating risk and this is where I think Trump has made his biggest misstep of leadership. He isn't leading horses to water, he is leading them to slaughter. He has been downplaying this virus from the beginning. Instead of being honest about the seriousness of the situation he has tried to dismiss it and score political points. He hasn't promoted masks or social distancing. He has held the largest group event since the shutdown with the Tulsa rally and then Tulsa spiked in cases a few weeks later. Thats crazy. It took him 3 months to finally say people should wear a mask. He had a few measured and read statements about and then when right back to his "Open it all up" attitude. That is just crazy and irresponsible. Do you not see it? Did you not see how he spun and lied through out that entire interview?
1. I watch FXN all day and don't recall ever seeing the Brit interviewer. He's from Axios. The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves.
2. We disagree. Trump has multiple responsibilities, he needs to address COVID-19 and keep the US economy up and running. I agree with Trump. He is doing a much better job with the pandemic and the economy than Biden could do, and you know it. Biden can't find his ass with both hands.
you actually did respond to my reply and I was the on that missed it. My bad.
1. Dana Parino is a big fan of swan so he appears on her show often and he is a regular on Special report with Bret Bair.
You didn’t address my point about death rate per population. That is really the most relevant stat to see how the virus has effected a country. The stat the Trump tours is deaths per cases which is dependent on the number of tests/cases identified. Since we test more than most countries then of course that number is going to be low. You see that right?
2. how can you think Trump is guiding the public in a responsible way? You admit that the virus is spread by people gathering and not social distancing. We see example after example of Trump promoting this type of behavior and belittling the recommended guidelines of cautionary actions that his own task force is coming out with.
1. Apology accepted, thanks. I miss stuff on occasion too. I like that you debate ideas and facts instead of slinging crap in a TDS food fight. This response is copied from my post #15. So the answer is, it depends if you want better numbers or worse numbers. I made a good living proving answers mathematically that the bosses want.
"The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves."
So look at each case:
a. Deaths per population:
The downside of this is that it doesn't capture trends, it is a much slower moving number. For example, when NY & NJ killed off their nursing home population, those "preventable" deaths stay in the number of "dead/population". Making the ratio look worse than it is. Not a good tool for tracking progress vs the virus.
b. Deaths per cases:
Its important to plot deaths/cases/month to show trends. Are we gaining or is the virus gaining? Look at the high deaths in NY & NJ at the start. Those deaths are "outliers" today. The stat that is most important is "are we winning or is the virus winning?"
I agree that using "deaths/cases/month" is a much more current statistic for how the nation is doing vs the pandemic. As treatments improve, death rates drop. Convalescent plasma and Remdesivir are game changers, as even more effective therapies are approved, the deaths/case will continue to drop. Agree that more testing means more cases and a lower ratio. But the "deaths/cases" ratio on a "per month" basis is the most accurate way to capture how we are doing vs the virus over time.
2. Trump always advises people to mitigate. He also needs the economy to reopen. Its a tough job when people keep partying. When the population "complies" we will beat COVID-19. Until then its not Trump's fault. It's China's fault.
I'm an engineer so I lean into the analytical and not the puff puff opinion stuff. So I always appreciate a substantive debate.
1. I understand what you are saying about the death/case stats. They are important when tracking trends within a country and working to mitigate the spread. The problem is, Trump is using those stats to brag about how great we are compared to other countries. Once you go there you aren't comparing like items. The only way to properly compare the effects of the virus in our country vs other countries is to look at deaths vs population and in that stat we are failing. The NY NJ nursing home accusation is a much larger debate which I would challenge your premise but lets not go there right now.
2. I get that Trump wants the economy to open, but when can you point to him encouraging people to take this seriously and commit to safe practices. Go back as far as you want, to the beginning of the shut down... People needed and still need to take this thing seriously and Trump has been downplaying it the whole time and literally encouraging the types of behavior that lead to more spread. You said "leading a horse to water" What exactly has Trump done to lead the horses to water and encourage the type of behavior that slows the spread? Can you point to some examples?
I'm also a PE. So we both know our numbers.
1. I disagree that the "only way to properly compare the effects of the virus" vs other countries is deaths/pop. As you said initially, the deaths/case stat tracks how the US is doing over time as the medications improve. My argument against comparing countries is that we have no way of knowing if their numbers are accurate. So comparing countries is still apples to oranges, no matter what "squishy" numbers you compare.
2. I can recall Pence, Birx, and Fauci recommending washing hands, distancing, masks. Then I recall "covid parties", bars open, crowded beaches, and BLM protests, etc. Until the population complies with guidance the virus will spread.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.
White House urges Americans to wear cloth face coverings in public in bid to slow coronavirus spread
President Trump announced new guidance encouraging Americans to wear homemade face coverings when in public in an effort to prevent further spread of the novel coronavirus.
1. I've heard that response, that you can't trust the other countries numbers. If thats what you are going with then there is nothing more to discuss. I can't prove the numbers are accurate and you can't prove they are false so the debate in then over. But if thats the case then we should both be in agreement that the comparisons that Trump is touting when he said we are doing better than the world with death rate is BS, right?
2. I recall Pence, Fauci, and Birx making those recommendations too. And then Trump tweeting and taking actions that promoted the opposite. Can you find any examples of TRUMP leading the horses to water? Because I have dozens showing him doing the opposite.
1. Absolutely! Total BS. Trump brags on the US and his record, and the Trump haters try to use false comparisons to make him look bad. Its all partisan bullshit using squishy numbers. The only true numbers as far as I can tell are deaths/case/month here in the US to see if the medical research is gaining on covid. If we get a "magic bullet" therapy we win, if we don't we live with covid. Even vaccines are not 100% effective, like the flu vaccine, we get 40,000 flu deaths a year, and don't bat an eye.
2. Trump has two problems, keeping covid patients alive, and keeping the US economy alive. The problems are interrelated. Trump is a businessman not a medical professional, so he tends to promote saving the economy and hopes that the task force can work the pandemic medically. The doctors only care about patients and not the economy, they apparently think money grows on trees. The US can't keep printing money or we lose our economy. So I agree with you that Trump's focus has been too much on the economy and not enough on mitigation, but we can't shutdown again, the schools need to open, and we need to either defeat covid or learn to live with it.
Trump should start and end every news conference with a reminder about mitigation measures, and to work safely.
I think we've reached agreement on point #1. Way to go!
As for point #2... We are close, except for I think my point still stands about Trumps irresponsible handling and messaging of this pandemic. Yes he is a business man and not a medical professional, he assigned a task force to address COVID, yet he belittles and contradicts the task force professionals on a regular basis. The fastest way to reopen the economy, which we agree is Trumps goal, is to get the virus under control. If going back to March Trump would have promoted mask wearing and social distancing and treated this virus as the serious threat that it is I truly believe we would be in a much better spot right now. All Trump did was play politics though. Pretend like it was no big deal, try to brag and claim wins about everything, deflect responsibly to the states, and push to reopen, which many governors listened too and now we are seeing their states as the hotbeds for resurgence. There is a direct correlation. Trump did and is still doing the exact opposite of leading horses to water when it comes to addressing the pandemic. I know you agree since you haven't provided any examples of Trump promoting mitigating behavior. The few statements he has read about masks and distancing he contradicts usually in the next breath. We all know where he stands and in my opinion it is going to be his undoing.
Its a fine line between "irresponsible messaging" and "skewed or incomplete messaging" based on conflicting and incorrect information. Trump apparently wanted to avoid a panic and everyone heading for the basement in terror. The initial info out of China and the WHO was conflicting and mostly wrong. "There was no human to human transmission"?? WTF? The CDC couldn't do adequate testing early on, etc. Should Trump shutdown air travel from China? Yes, he shut it down, a great decision. The democrats went nuts calling him xenophobic and racist. Then Nancy promotes going out to Chinatown?!
Hindsight being 20/20, I agree Trump did an okay job, probably way better than any PC democrat could have done handling the pandemic. Trump kept the "curve" flatter and within the medical system capacity by stopping flights from China so early. Could Trump have been more serious promoting masks, distancing, and avoiding crowds? Yes, sure, early on. But then there was a battle to reopen the economy or not. Many governors were keeping their states locked-down, and Trump wanted to avoid too many bankruptcies. He did not want to give the governors an excuse to stay shutdown. Right now about 50% of US restaurants are closed permanently. So Trump probably wanted to promote "normalcy" to save jobs and businesses, instead of the "new normal", that being normal but with masks and distancing.
I know this pandemic is China's fault, no one else's.
For clarity: calling Trump xenophobic, which is accurate, and saying travel restrictions to China are a bad idea are two different things. You wouldn’t be able to tie those things together from any Democratic leader. The normal retort is to post Biden calling Trump the wrong leader for a pandemic who leads with xenophobia. Trump is calling it the China Virus for goodness sake. Go back and look at Biden’s speech. It ALL CAME TRUE.
Listen. It’s 30 seconds long.
lantern2814
Diamond Member
- Jul 17, 2018
- 14,482
- 11,826
You actually make two good points, I'm glad you chimed in. More testing is going to Statistically show more cases that is true. It it also gives opportunity to slow the spread as identifying cases leads to quarantine, early treatment and contact tracing which ultimately leads to less cases over time. The interviewer, who is very middle of the road and spends a lot of time on Fox, was asking about the death rate in relation to population with really is a more relevant stat. Trump, first failed to explain how we are "over testing" by referencing some unnamed books and manuals, and then he said the only death stats that we can look at are deaths per cases... This makes no sense. Be honest... It really makes no sense.
Damn right we're voting for Trump again. I saw the entire interview. The interviewer just couldn't get past the democrat talking points. I can give you one example:
The US has so many infected because we test much more than other countries. That is a fact, yet the democrats don't grasp it. Here is the explanation:
1. Other countries do not test until the person enters the hospital with symptoms.
Take India for example, 20m tests and 15,000 tests/1m people, 1.9m cases found.
The US did 61m tests, and 186,000 tests/1m people, 4.9m cases found.
So it is not surprising that in the US we found many more cases (3x) by testing 10x more people per million.
In India there are many more "asymptomatic" or "mildly symptomatic" cases undetected, that would show positive in the US.
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
2. Trump's handling of the pandemic is totally dependent on citizens mitigating risk. If people party and don't social distance, and have covid parties, then the infection spreads. If people act responsibly, and wear masks, the pandemic can be reduced, see the attached chart. Trump can only lead the horses to water, he can't make them drink.
View attachment 371221
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
2. I totally agree about mitigating risk and this is where I think Trump has made his biggest misstep of leadership. He isn't leading horses to water, he is leading them to slaughter. He has been downplaying this virus from the beginning. Instead of being honest about the seriousness of the situation he has tried to dismiss it and score political points. He hasn't promoted masks or social distancing. He has held the largest group event since the shutdown with the Tulsa rally and then Tulsa spiked in cases a few weeks later. Thats crazy. It took him 3 months to finally say people should wear a mask. He had a few measured and read statements about and then when right back to his "Open it all up" attitude. That is just crazy and irresponsible. Do you not see it? Did you not see how he spun and lied through out that entire interview?
1. I watch FXN all day and don't recall ever seeing the Brit interviewer. He's from Axios. The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves.
2. We disagree. Trump has multiple responsibilities, he needs to address COVID-19 and keep the US economy up and running. I agree with Trump. He is doing a much better job with the pandemic and the economy than Biden could do, and you know it. Biden can't find his ass with both hands.
you actually did respond to my reply and I was the on that missed it. My bad.
1. Dana Parino is a big fan of swan so he appears on her show often and he is a regular on Soecial report with Bret Bair.
You didn’t address my point about death rate per population. That is really the most relevant stat to see how the virus has effected a country. The stat the Trump tours is deaths per cases which is dependent on the number of tests/cases identified. Since we test more than most countries then of course that number is going to be low. You see that right?
2. how can you think Trump is guiding the public in a responsible way? You admit that the virus is spread by people gathering and not social distancing. We see example after example of Trump promoting this type of behavior and belittling the recommended guidelines of cautionary actions that his own task force is coming out with.
You lie so much its pathetic. Trump promotes huge gatherings? No, that’s your precious Fauci the fraud and the DIMS and their “go protest and riot” bullshit. That’s not Trump liar. Your TDS and inability to get past “Trump bad” marks you as a demented loon.
Slade3200
Diamond Member
- Jan 13, 2016
- 66,753
- 16,962
- Thread starter
- #120
You actually make two good points, I'm glad you chimed in. More testing is going to Statistically show more cases that is true. It it also gives opportunity to slow the spread as identifying cases leads to quarantine, early treatment and contact tracing which ultimately leads to less cases over time. The interviewer, who is very middle of the road and spends a lot of time on Fox, was asking about the death rate in relation to population with really is a more relevant stat. Trump, first failed to explain how we are "over testing" by referencing some unnamed books and manuals, and then he said the only death stats that we can look at are deaths per cases... This makes no sense. Be honest... It really makes no sense.
Damn right we're voting for Trump again. I saw the entire interview. The interviewer just couldn't get past the democrat talking points. I can give you one example:
The US has so many infected because we test much more than other countries. That is a fact, yet the democrats don't grasp it. Here is the explanation:
1. Other countries do not test until the person enters the hospital with symptoms.
Take India for example, 20m tests and 15,000 tests/1m people, 1.9m cases found.
The US did 61m tests, and 186,000 tests/1m people, 4.9m cases found.
So it is not surprising that in the US we found many more cases (3x) by testing 10x more people per million.
In India there are many more "asymptomatic" or "mildly symptomatic" cases undetected, that would show positive in the US.
COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
2. Trump's handling of the pandemic is totally dependent on citizens mitigating risk. If people party and don't social distance, and have covid parties, then the infection spreads. If people act responsibly, and wear masks, the pandemic can be reduced, see the attached chart. Trump can only lead the horses to water, he can't make them drink.
View attachment 371221
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
2. I totally agree about mitigating risk and this is where I think Trump has made his biggest misstep of leadership. He isn't leading horses to water, he is leading them to slaughter. He has been downplaying this virus from the beginning. Instead of being honest about the seriousness of the situation he has tried to dismiss it and score political points. He hasn't promoted masks or social distancing. He has held the largest group event since the shutdown with the Tulsa rally and then Tulsa spiked in cases a few weeks later. Thats crazy. It took him 3 months to finally say people should wear a mask. He had a few measured and read statements about and then when right back to his "Open it all up" attitude. That is just crazy and irresponsible. Do you not see it? Did you not see how he spun and lied through out that entire interview?
1. I watch FXN all day and don't recall ever seeing the Brit interviewer. He's from Axios. The death rate needs to be adjusted over time for many factors. First Cuomo sent covid patients to nursing homes and killed off about 35,000. So we need to adjust for that. Then we are getting much better treatments now, convalescent plasma, Remdesavire, etc. So I agree with Trump that looking at the death reduction over time is critical going forward. The doctors are getting much better at treatments. So looking at old death rates is meaningless. I also prefer deaths/cases/month to see the true trend. Be honest, that makes sense for trending curves.
2. We disagree. Trump has multiple responsibilities, he needs to address COVID-19 and keep the US economy up and running. I agree with Trump. He is doing a much better job with the pandemic and the economy than Biden could do, and you know it. Biden can't find his ass with both hands.
you actually did respond to my reply and I was the on that missed it. My bad.
1. Dana Parino is a big fan of swan so he appears on her show often and he is a regular on Soecial report with Bret Bair.
You didn’t address my point about death rate per population. That is really the most relevant stat to see how the virus has effected a country. The stat the Trump tours is deaths per cases which is dependent on the number of tests/cases identified. Since we test more than most countries then of course that number is going to be low. You see that right?
2. how can you think Trump is guiding the public in a responsible way? You admit that the virus is spread by people gathering and not social distancing. We see example after example of Trump promoting this type of behavior and belittling the recommended guidelines of cautionary actions that his own task force is coming out with.
You lie so much its pathetic. Trump promotes huge gatherings? No, that’s your precious Fauci the fraud and the DIMS and their “go protest and riot” bullshit. That’s not Trump liar. Your TDS and inability to get past “Trump bad” marks you as a demented loon.
I haven't posted one lie. Trumps Tulsa rally to date is the largest indoor gathering that has been held in the United States since the shelter in place orders have gone into effect from COVID outbreaks. There is no lie there, thats a fact.
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