What % chance do you think Donald Trump has at winning the Presidential election

Presidential election forecast + expected margin of victory

I think at this point in time, its not Who will win the election, but how much will Hillary Clinton win by. Donald Trump's odds of winning is getting worse every passing day. Five women now claim to be inappropriately touched by Donald Trump (women make up 53% of voters)

So, what % chance do you give Trump of winning the election
23205e8d0231a5b7a6ef3b8028f321e8d0445005_hq1.jpg
3/20 or 15% seems right
 
Presidential election forecast + expected margin of victory

I think at this point in time, its not Who will win the election, but how much will Hillary Clinton win by. Donald Trump's odds of winning is getting worse every passing day. Five women now claim to be inappropriately touched by Donald Trump (women make up 53% of voters)

So, what % chance do you give Trump of winning the election
23205e8d0231a5b7a6ef3b8028f321e8d0445005_hq1.jpg
things arent going so well for trump
 
I'm going to be generous and say 10%

Based on recent history you'd make that 6%.

Out of the last 16 elections, only twice has the candidate leading near the end of October gone on to lose. Gore in 2000 (which is a stretch) and Carter in 1980.

Put another way, in a hundred elections with a candidate ahead in late October, that candidate wins 94 times, loses 6.
 

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