What the national polls say about a 2020 Trump vs. Biden race.

[Thinker101]

When has a candidate won the president race and still lost Florida ??

Trump has Florida locked up

And those Florida voters helps sway penn and Ohio voters

So trump
Is a lock to win 2020


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

1992 - Bill Clinton
1960 - John F Kennedy
1924 - Calvin Coolidge
1920 - Warren G. Harding
1908 - William Taft
1904 - Theodore Roosevelt
1900 - William McKinley
1896 - William McKinley
1888 - Benjamin Harrison
1880 - James Garfield
1868 - Ulysses Grant
1864 - Abraham Lincoln
1860 - Abraham Lincoln

Above are candidates that won the Presidential Election without winning Florida.

Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a little more than 1 percentage point. A small margin in the 3rd largest state. Since that time, many people from Puerto Rico have moved to Florida after the devastating hurricane that that killed nearly 3,000 people and Trumps poor response to it. These new Floridians from Puerto Rico won't be supporting Trump. They will probably tip the state toward whoever runs against Trump in 2020.

Trump stronger now in the 5 swing states because of the stampede of conservatives out of New York and California which makes those 5 swing states stronger for trump than in 2016

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

More like the polls show Democrats haven't learned a damn thing in the last 3 years.

Republicans, Democrats, the media, academics and researchers, all use polling to try to predict where the country is going and how to set up campaign strategy and where to send money. All of this polling data right now, shows that Trump is in trouble.

And what did the polling data show in 2016? Dumbass.

 

[GWV5903]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

You just go with that, it worked so well for you last time...

Everyone looks at the polls. Hillary won the popular vote in 2016. It was a FLUKE that she lost thanks to Trumps narrow win in three states and the electoral college. Lets see how that rare fluke works for you in 2020.

The Polls predicted HRC would win by a landslide, she lost! I understand it’s hard to accept her defeat, but she sucked, still sucks to this day! When your side cheats again and still losses, what’s your excuse then? Are you going to go with the failed Russian Collusion theory again or something new and more imaginative? How about China Collusion, even though collusion isn’t a crime btw...

 

[kyzr]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

Nice rationale', hope it works out for you. A Trump-Biden contest would be worth the price of admission!
More comments on your post:
1. The young progressives want a young candidate, so it looks like a generational battle, old folks vs young folks, 73% of dems want a "fresh face"
73% of Democrats Want ‘A Fresh Face’ As 2020 Nominee - Rasmussen Reports®
2. Not sure who the minority voters prefer? Can't find any polls?!
3. Sanders didn't "fail" against Clinton, the party (Brazille and Wasserman-Schultz) cheated Bernie out of the nomination, it all depends who the party tells the "super-delegates" to vote for. In 2020 to your point, that would be Joe Biden. So Bernie gets screwed again...

1. Young progressives usually don't decide who gets the nomination. Plus their a smaller group in the Democratic party and their divided among many different candidates with their support. This division aids Biden and Sanders.

2. Biden is preferred by minorities over Sanders. Sanders has always had a bit of a weakness with minorities.

3. Clinton won the nomination by any and every measure you look at. Sanders did well in the smaller and more rural states that did not have as many votes. Hillary won the big important states, and yes, she did well with the Super-delegates. With or without the Super Delegates, she was going to win.

4. But if Biden needs the Super Delegates to beat Sanders in 2020, so be it. Biden is the more conservative candidate than Sanders, closer to the center. He is also closer to being a Reagan/Bush/McCain Republican than Trump is. Biden is a centrist. Most Americans are centrist. Trump and Sanders are NOT centrist.

Not much to disagree with in your post. The only major or potential flaw is that Biden can actually win the nomination. Here are a few comments to consider:
1. Will 2020 be the "changing of the guard"? Will the young progressives actually vote and beat the old guard? History says no, but we'll see who wins the delegates.
2. Thx, I wasn't sure who the minorities preferred. That's a big plus for Biden. Not sure if Kamala or Spartacus eats into that advantage?
3. Hillary won by cheating. The DNC did everything they could to help H and hurt Bernie.
4. The super-delegates may determine who win the nomination, but the dems wisely changed the rules to minimize their effect, we'll see. The convention should be a circus!!
Why the 2020 Democratic primary could turn into 'Lord of the Flies'

If Biden were to lose the nomination, it would only be to Sanders. There are many Republicans like myself who will be registering as Democrats for 2020 so we can vote in Democratic primary's. That will change the party making the voting base more conservative.

Sanders weakness is that there are two to three times as many candidates for the nomination as there was in 2016. These new candidates tap into Sanders base of support from 2016. It weakens Sanders which means in strengthens Biden.

Time is running out on a break out candidate like O'Rourke to put up some decent polling numbers.

Essentially, Sanders and the other left leaning candidates split the progressive vote in the Democratic party allowing Biden to ride toward an easy win with a small plurality of the vote. Kind of like what Trump did in 2016 to the Republican Party. The anti-Trump vote in the Republican party was divided among many candidates allowing Trump to slip into the nomination with small plurality of the vote.

1. Hate to call bullshit that you are a republican, but there are only two flavors, "never-Trumpers" and Trumpers. You don't seem to fit in either of those boxes. Your promoting the democrats with their stupid policy positions indicates that you are in-fact a democrat.

2. There are not "many" republicans switching parties to support Biden. There aren't any, unless you have a secret/imaginary society?

3. Time isn't running out for Beto, the primaries won't even start for another year or more?!

4. Have you seriously looked at Biden's age? He would be 78 when sworn in!! Reagan was "only" 69 when he was sworn in. I'm fairly certain that the dem majority will not be voting for Joe Biden, even if he manages to complete the grueling primary schedule.

Ronald Reagan - Wikipedia
"First term

Ronald Reagan was 69 years old when he sworn into office for his first term on January 20, 1981. In his inaugural address, he addressed the country's economic malaise, arguing: "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem."

 

[U2Edge]

1992 - Bill Clinton
1960 - John F Kennedy
1924 - Calvin Coolidge
1920 - Warren G. Harding
1908 - William Taft
1904 - Theodore Roosevelt
1900 - William McKinley
1896 - William McKinley
1888 - Benjamin Harrison
1880 - James Garfield
1868 - Ulysses Grant
1864 - Abraham Lincoln
1860 - Abraham Lincoln

Above are candidates that won the Presidential Election without winning Florida.

Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a little more than 1 percentage point. A small margin in the 3rd largest state. Since that time, many people from Puerto Rico have moved to Florida after the devastating hurricane that that killed nearly 3,000 people and Trumps poor response to it. These new Floridians from Puerto Rico won't be supporting Trump. They will probably tip the state toward whoever runs against Trump in 2020.

Trump stronger now in the 5 swing states because of the stampede of conservatives out of New York and California which makes those 5 swing states stronger for trump than in 2016

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

More like the polls show Democrats haven't learned a damn thing in the last 3 years.

Republicans, Democrats, the media, academics and researchers, all use polling to try to predict where the country is going and how to set up campaign strategy and where to send money. All of this polling data right now, shows that Trump is in trouble.

And what did the polling data show in 2016? Dumbass.

The National polls showed Donald Trump getting beat by Hillary Clinton. Those polls were right. Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by nearly 3 million votes nationally. The reason Trump won was because of a rare FLUKE of the electoral college. Just like you can't count on lightning to strike the same spot on the ground twice in a relative short period of time, it would be a mistake to hope that a rare FLUKE will happen again in 2020 to save Trump.

 

[bendog]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

Been there done that.

I do think Biden has the skills to render Trump's tactic of a tirade of personal insults pretty ineffective with all but the die hard Trump supporters who'd vote for Trump over a ticket of Abraham and Christ

 

[JimH52]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

I do think if Joe picks a liberal Vice President he can pull the party together and beat the Orange POS...

 

[U2Edge]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

You just go with that, it worked so well for you last time...

Everyone looks at the polls. Hillary won the popular vote in 2016. It was a FLUKE that she lost thanks to Trumps narrow win in three states and the electoral college. Lets see how that rare fluke works for you in 2020.

The Polls predicted HRC would win by a landslide, she lost! I understand it’s hard to accept her defeat, but she sucked, still sucks to this day! When your side cheats again and still losses, what’s your excuse then? Are you going to go with the failed Russian Collusion theory again or something new and more imaginative? How about China Collusion, even though collusion isn’t a crime btw...

IN CASE YOU DID NOT KNOW, this is about BIDEN AND TRUMP in 2020, NOT Hillary and Trump in 2016. In any event the national polls were generally right. They predicted on average that Hillary would win by 3 percentage points nationally and she won by two percentage points nationally in the popular vote.

HILLARY CLINTON IS NOT RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2020! Understand?

We are talking about the 2020 election, not what you think happened in 2016.

It will be a rude awakening for you once you wake up from your 2016 election night victory for Trump. Its been 2 and half years, but your still acting like the date is November 2016. Wake up, its 2019, Trump is President and the majority of people disapprove of the job he has been doing. In fact, Trump has the lowest average approval rating of any President in history!

 

[U2Edge]

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

Nice rationale', hope it works out for you. A Trump-Biden contest would be worth the price of admission!
More comments on your post:
1. The young progressives want a young candidate, so it looks like a generational battle, old folks vs young folks, 73% of dems want a "fresh face"
73% of Democrats Want ‘A Fresh Face’ As 2020 Nominee - Rasmussen Reports®
2. Not sure who the minority voters prefer? Can't find any polls?!
3. Sanders didn't "fail" against Clinton, the party (Brazille and Wasserman-Schultz) cheated Bernie out of the nomination, it all depends who the party tells the "super-delegates" to vote for. In 2020 to your point, that would be Joe Biden. So Bernie gets screwed again...

1. Young progressives usually don't decide who gets the nomination. Plus their a smaller group in the Democratic party and their divided among many different candidates with their support. This division aids Biden and Sanders.

2. Biden is preferred by minorities over Sanders. Sanders has always had a bit of a weakness with minorities.

3. Clinton won the nomination by any and every measure you look at. Sanders did well in the smaller and more rural states that did not have as many votes. Hillary won the big important states, and yes, she did well with the Super-delegates. With or without the Super Delegates, she was going to win.

4. But if Biden needs the Super Delegates to beat Sanders in 2020, so be it. Biden is the more conservative candidate than Sanders, closer to the center. He is also closer to being a Reagan/Bush/McCain Republican than Trump is. Biden is a centrist. Most Americans are centrist. Trump and Sanders are NOT centrist.

Not much to disagree with in your post. The only major or potential flaw is that Biden can actually win the nomination. Here are a few comments to consider:
1. Will 2020 be the "changing of the guard"? Will the young progressives actually vote and beat the old guard? History says no, but we'll see who wins the delegates.
2. Thx, I wasn't sure who the minorities preferred. That's a big plus for Biden. Not sure if Kamala or Spartacus eats into that advantage?
3. Hillary won by cheating. The DNC did everything they could to help H and hurt Bernie.
4. The super-delegates may determine who win the nomination, but the dems wisely changed the rules to minimize their effect, we'll see. The convention should be a circus!!
Why the 2020 Democratic primary could turn into 'Lord of the Flies'

If Biden were to lose the nomination, it would only be to Sanders. There are many Republicans like myself who will be registering as Democrats for 2020 so we can vote in Democratic primary's. That will change the party making the voting base more conservative.

Sanders weakness is that there are two to three times as many candidates for the nomination as there was in 2016. These new candidates tap into Sanders base of support from 2016. It weakens Sanders which means in strengthens Biden.

Time is running out on a break out candidate like O'Rourke to put up some decent polling numbers.

Essentially, Sanders and the other left leaning candidates split the progressive vote in the Democratic party allowing Biden to ride toward an easy win with a small plurality of the vote. Kind of like what Trump did in 2016 to the Republican Party. The anti-Trump vote in the Republican party was divided among many candidates allowing Trump to slip into the nomination with small plurality of the vote.

1. Hate to call bullshit that you are a republican, but there are only two flavors, "never-Trumpers" and Trumpers. You don't seem to fit in either of those boxes. Your promoting the democrats with their stupid policy positions indicates that you are in-fact a democrat.

2. There are not "many" republicans switching parties to support Biden. There aren't any, unless you have a secret/imaginary society?

3. Time isn't running out for Beto, the primaries won't even start for another year or more?!

4. Have you seriously looked at Biden's age? He would be 78 when sworn in!! Reagan was "only" 69 when he was sworn in. I'm fairly certain that the dem majority will not be voting for Joe Biden, even if he manages to complete the grueling primary schedule.

Ronald Reagan - Wikipedia
"First term

Ronald Reagan was 69 years old when he sworn into office for his first term on January 20, 1981. In his inaugural address, he addressed the country's economic malaise, arguing: "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem."

1. How could I be a democrat when I have never been registered as anything but a Republican. I've voted straight Republican ticket all my life until the 2016 election. The only Democrat I voted for in 2016 was Hillary Clinton, the rest of the votes were for Republicans. It is true in 2018 that I voted straight Democrat. Yes, I am a never Trumper. I'm a Bush/McCain Republican which is essentially the opposite of a Trump Republican.

2. There will be plenty of Republicans switching party's temporarily to help Biden win in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. More than enough to destroy Trumps tiny margins of victory in those states from 2016.

3. The first Primaries are in February 2020, soon to be only 10 months away.

4. Have you looked at Trump's age? 74 and a half on January 20, 2021. Who is in better shape, Biden or Trump? Who eats better, exercises, gets more sleep? BIDEN wins in all three. Who has the better BODY MASS INDEX? Once again, Biden wins.
Who is Biden's only real competitor in the Democratic Party? SANDERS. SANDERS is a year older than Biden.
Sorry, but point #4 is your biggest fail!

 

[GreenAndBlue]

Trump stronger now in the 5 swing states because of the stampede of conservatives out of New York and California which makes those 5 swing states stronger for trump than in 2016

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

More like the polls show Democrats haven't learned a damn thing in the last 3 years.

Republicans, Democrats, the media, academics and researchers, all use polling to try to predict where the country is going and how to set up campaign strategy and where to send money. All of this polling data right now, shows that Trump is in trouble.

And what did the polling data show in 2016? Dumbass.

The National polls showed Donald Trump getting beat by Hillary Clinton. Those polls were right. Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by nearly 3 million votes nationally. The reason Trump won was because of a rare FLUKE of the electoral college. Just like you can't count on lightning to strike the same spot on the ground twice in a relative short period of time, it would be a mistake to hope that a rare FLUKE will happen again in 2020 to save Trump.

Only 5 states to look at

Trump has locked them up with his great help to those states

 

[Thinker101]

Trump stronger now in the 5 swing states because of the stampede of conservatives out of New York and California which makes those 5 swing states stronger for trump than in 2016

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

More like the polls show Democrats haven't learned a damn thing in the last 3 years.

Republicans, Democrats, the media, academics and researchers, all use polling to try to predict where the country is going and how to set up campaign strategy and where to send money. All of this polling data right now, shows that Trump is in trouble.

And what did the polling data show in 2016? Dumbass.

The National polls showed Donald Trump getting beat by Hillary Clinton. Those polls were right. Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by nearly 3 million votes nationally. The reason Trump won was because of a rare FLUKE of the electoral college. Just like you can't count on lightning to strike the same spot on the ground twice in a relative short period of time, it would be a mistake to hope that a rare FLUKE will happen again in 2020 to save Trump.

Yep, that's what it was, a FLUKE, can't wait for the next FLUKE in 2020.

 

[nat4900]

Repeat ad infinitum:

Creepy Joe Biden throws live puppies into rush hour traffic!

Creepy Joe Biden is a secret Satan worshiper!

Creepy Joe Biden fondles children!

Creepy Joe Biden is gay!

Creepy Joe Biden is the proprietor of Comet Pizza!

"Joe Biden" is Hebrew for "turtle fucker"!

Creepy Joe Biden killed Kennedy!

Creepy Joe Biden plagiarized Michelle Obama's speech!

Creepy Joe Biden slept with Stormy Daniels and paid her for her silence!

Creepy Joe Biden tried to get a Biden Tower built in Moscow!

Creepy Joe Biden bragged about grabbing pussies!

Yeah.........most moronic Trump cultists would probably agree with the above because.......well, because they're moronic Trump cult members.....

(P.S. want to hear the video-tape about WHO brags about grabbing pussies???....LOL)

 

[U2Edge]

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

More like the polls show Democrats haven't learned a damn thing in the last 3 years.

Republicans, Democrats, the media, academics and researchers, all use polling to try to predict where the country is going and how to set up campaign strategy and where to send money. All of this polling data right now, shows that Trump is in trouble.

And what did the polling data show in 2016? Dumbass.

The National polls showed Donald Trump getting beat by Hillary Clinton. Those polls were right. Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by nearly 3 million votes nationally. The reason Trump won was because of a rare FLUKE of the electoral college. Just like you can't count on lightning to strike the same spot on the ground twice in a relative short period of time, it would be a mistake to hope that a rare FLUKE will happen again in 2020 to save Trump.

Only 5 states to look at

Trump has locked them up with his great help to those states

Actually there is really only three if you put it that way. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Trump barley won those states in 2016. Unlikely he can do it again. With those three states going Blue again in 2020, its over for Trump. Winning Texas would just be icing on the cake.

 

[U2Edge]

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

More like the polls show Democrats haven't learned a damn thing in the last 3 years.

Republicans, Democrats, the media, academics and researchers, all use polling to try to predict where the country is going and how to set up campaign strategy and where to send money. All of this polling data right now, shows that Trump is in trouble.

And what did the polling data show in 2016? Dumbass.

The National polls showed Donald Trump getting beat by Hillary Clinton. Those polls were right. Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by nearly 3 million votes nationally. The reason Trump won was because of a rare FLUKE of the electoral college. Just like you can't count on lightning to strike the same spot on the ground twice in a relative short period of time, it would be a mistake to hope that a rare FLUKE will happen again in 2020 to save Trump.

Yep, that's what it was, a FLUKE, can't wait for the next FLUKE in 2020.

Fluke's are rare things that happen, but not often.

 

[U2Edge]

Repeat ad infinitum:

Creepy Joe Biden throws live puppies into rush hour traffic!

Creepy Joe Biden is a secret Satan worshiper!

Creepy Joe Biden fondles children!

Creepy Joe Biden is gay!

Creepy Joe Biden is the proprietor of Comet Pizza!

"Joe Biden" is Hebrew for "turtle fucker"!

Creepy Joe Biden killed Kennedy!

Creepy Joe Biden plagiarized Michelle Obama's speech!

Creepy Joe Biden slept with Stormy Daniels and paid her for her silence!

Creepy Joe Biden tried to get a Biden Tower built in Moscow!

Creepy Joe Biden bragged about grabbing pussies!

Yeah.........most moronic Trump cultists would probably agree with the above because.......well, because they're moronic Trump cult members.....

(P.S. want to hear the video-tape about WHO brags about grabbing pussies???....LOL)

Plus I don't think Trumps standing has improved with women since becoming President.

 

[nat4900]

Actually there is really only three if you put it that way. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Trump barley won those states in 2016. Unlikely he can do it again. With those three states going Blue again in 2020, its over for Trump. Winning Texas would just be icing on the cake.

Here's an interesting stat.........The "independent" Jill Stein got MORE votes than the margin with which Trump won those 3 states.

Its doubtful that Putin will have Stein run again to help the orange charlatan......

 

[TroglocratsRdumb]

Repeat ad infinitum:

Creepy Joe Biden throws live puppies into rush hour traffic!

Creepy Joe Biden is a secret Satan worshiper!

Creepy Joe Biden fondles children!

Creepy Joe Biden is gay!

Creepy Joe Biden is the proprietor of Comet Pizza!

"Joe Biden" is Hebrew for "turtle fucker"!

Creepy Joe Biden killed Kennedy!

Creepy Joe Biden plagiarized Michelle Obama's speech!

Creepy Joe Biden slept with Stormy Daniels and paid her for her silence!

Creepy Joe Biden tried to get a Biden Tower built in Moscow!

Creepy Joe Biden bragged about grabbing pussies!

Joe never grabbed Obammy

 

[kyzr]

Nice rationale', hope it works out for you. A Trump-Biden contest would be worth the price of admission!
More comments on your post:
1. The young progressives want a young candidate, so it looks like a generational battle, old folks vs young folks, 73% of dems want a "fresh face"
73% of Democrats Want ‘A Fresh Face’ As 2020 Nominee - Rasmussen Reports®
2. Not sure who the minority voters prefer? Can't find any polls?!
3. Sanders didn't "fail" against Clinton, the party (Brazille and Wasserman-Schultz) cheated Bernie out of the nomination, it all depends who the party tells the "super-delegates" to vote for. In 2020 to your point, that would be Joe Biden. So Bernie gets screwed again...

1. Young progressives usually don't decide who gets the nomination. Plus their a smaller group in the Democratic party and their divided among many different candidates with their support. This division aids Biden and Sanders.

2. Biden is preferred by minorities over Sanders. Sanders has always had a bit of a weakness with minorities.

3. Clinton won the nomination by any and every measure you look at. Sanders did well in the smaller and more rural states that did not have as many votes. Hillary won the big important states, and yes, she did well with the Super-delegates. With or without the Super Delegates, she was going to win.

4. But if Biden needs the Super Delegates to beat Sanders in 2020, so be it. Biden is the more conservative candidate than Sanders, closer to the center. He is also closer to being a Reagan/Bush/McCain Republican than Trump is. Biden is a centrist. Most Americans are centrist. Trump and Sanders are NOT centrist.

Not much to disagree with in your post. The only major or potential flaw is that Biden can actually win the nomination. Here are a few comments to consider:
1. Will 2020 be the "changing of the guard"? Will the young progressives actually vote and beat the old guard? History says no, but we'll see who wins the delegates.
2. Thx, I wasn't sure who the minorities preferred. That's a big plus for Biden. Not sure if Kamala or Spartacus eats into that advantage?
3. Hillary won by cheating. The DNC did everything they could to help H and hurt Bernie.
4. The super-delegates may determine who win the nomination, but the dems wisely changed the rules to minimize their effect, we'll see. The convention should be a circus!!
Why the 2020 Democratic primary could turn into 'Lord of the Flies'

If Biden were to lose the nomination, it would only be to Sanders. There are many Republicans like myself who will be registering as Democrats for 2020 so we can vote in Democratic primary's. That will change the party making the voting base more conservative.

Sanders weakness is that there are two to three times as many candidates for the nomination as there was in 2016. These new candidates tap into Sanders base of support from 2016. It weakens Sanders which means in strengthens Biden.

Time is running out on a break out candidate like O'Rourke to put up some decent polling numbers.

Essentially, Sanders and the other left leaning candidates split the progressive vote in the Democratic party allowing Biden to ride toward an easy win with a small plurality of the vote. Kind of like what Trump did in 2016 to the Republican Party. The anti-Trump vote in the Republican party was divided among many candidates allowing Trump to slip into the nomination with small plurality of the vote.

1. Hate to call bullshit that you are a republican, but there are only two flavors, "never-Trumpers" and Trumpers. You don't seem to fit in either of those boxes. Your promoting the democrats with their stupid policy positions indicates that you are in-fact a democrat.

2. There are not "many" republicans switching parties to support Biden. There aren't any, unless you have a secret/imaginary society?

3. Time isn't running out for Beto, the primaries won't even start for another year or more?!

4. Have you seriously looked at Biden's age? He would be 78 when sworn in!! Reagan was "only" 69 when he was sworn in. I'm fairly certain that the dem majority will not be voting for Joe Biden, even if he manages to complete the grueling primary schedule.

Ronald Reagan - Wikipedia
"First term

Ronald Reagan was 69 years old when he sworn into office for his first term on January 20, 1981. In his inaugural address, he addressed the country's economic malaise, arguing: "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem."

1. How could I be a democrat when I have never been registered as anything but a Republican. I've voted straight Republican ticket all my life until the 2016 election. The only Democrat I voted for in 2016 was Hillary Clinton, the rest of the votes were for Republicans. It is true in 2018 that I voted straight Democrat. Yes, I am a never Trumper. I'm a Bush/McCain Republican which is essentially the opposite of a Trump Republican.

2. There will be plenty of Republicans switching party's temporarily to help Biden win in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. More than enough to destroy Trumps tiny margins of victory in those states from 2016.

3. The first Primaries are in February 2020, soon to be only 10 months away.

4. Have you looked at Trump's age? 74 and a half on January 20, 2021. Who is in better shape, Biden or Trump? Who eats better, exercises, gets more sleep? BIDEN wins in all three. Who has the better BODY MASS INDEX? Once again, Biden wins.
Who is Biden's only real competitor in the Democratic Party? SANDERS. SANDERS is a year older than Biden.
Sorry, but point #4 is your biggest fail!

1. Wow, I could never vote for H, no matter what. I can't imagine your illogical thinking?! Just look at the court nominations. Trump saved the US from the lib courts as well as saved the military. You must be a globalist like Bill Kristol? That makes no sense to me. I'm a middle class guy who likes work, especially the manufacturing sector. I could never vote for a never-Trumper, so we'll see what happens in 2024 and 2028. I'd never vote democrat, never.

2. Got a link for the claim that there will be plenty of republicans switching parties for Biden? No one I know would consider that. The dems are simply crazy Joe Biden or not.

4. I bet that Trump outlasts Biden. Sanders is ancient too, hope he makes it thru the primaries. They are simply too old to be president. It would be a death watch like for RBG.

 

[U2Edge]

Hey, we got some new polling data on the BIDEN VS TRUMP match up for 2020:

Both polls are done by the polling company EMERSON.

In Wisconsin(poll released March 18):

BIDEN: 54%

TRUMP: 46%


General Election National Poll(poll released March 20):

BIDEN: 55%

TRUMP: 45%

 

[kyzr]

Hey, we got some new polling data on the BIDEN VS TRUMP match up for 2020:

Both polls are done by the polling company EMERSON.

In Wisconsin(poll released March 18):

BIDEN: 54%

TRUMP: 46%


General Election National Poll(poll released March 20):

BIDEN: 55%

TRUMP: 45%

I notice you didn't include links to your polls. Found it...
Poll: Trump trails Biden, Sanders, Warren in Wisconsin match-ups

No dem is going to beat Trump in 2020, but it will be fun watching the election process.

Odds Suggest that Sanders, Harris Are Trump’s Biggest Threats
Donald Trump +200
Kamala Harris +600
Bernie Sanders +600
Joe Biden +700
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Amy Klobuchar +2500
Elizabeth Warren +2500

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

Thank you. You have already made yourself sound stupid with your Universal Healthcare debacle thread and now this. Biden vs. Trump have not even had one debate yet. Hold your horses.