What the national polls say about a 2020 Trump vs. Biden race.

[U2Edge]

If it is Biden vs Trump, the Dems are in for some pain. Biden is a lightweight. He is as weak a candidate as they come. Biden is no where near the candidate that Hillary Clinton was in 2016. Biden knew better to even try, and Sanders went quickly into the fetal position when push came to shove.

Look at the midterms for 1982, 1994 & 2010. How did those results reflect the next general election? One of the few exceptions was 2002, when Bush picked up a few seats following 911.

I don't know who the Dem nominee will be. But, it wont be Biden or Sanders. They are pushovers. One of the others will step up and crush them, or Clinton will be rolled out by the DNC to save the day.

Biden's advantages over Hillary:

01. He is Man - One of Donald Trump's strongest bases is with Men and Biden will be able to cut into that in a way Hillary was not able to.

02. Biden has strong Pennsylvania roots. This was one of the reasons that Obama picked him to be Vice President, to pick up votes in PA because the Democrats feared that McCain was going to pick former PA governor Tom Ridge to be his running mate back in 2008. With Biden running at the head of the ticket, it insures that PA will be Blue once again in 2020.

03. Biden has a long history with the Democratic Party and government going back to 1972. 36 years in the Senate and then 8 years as Vice President under Barack Obama, President that a majority of Americans liked.



Finally, none of the other Democratic candidates are really polling much more than single digits. Biden and Sanders are taking up more than 50% of the current polling and interest. The 3rd strongest candidate is Harris at 11%, way behind. Make no mistake, this is between Biden and Sanders. Their base and supporters are too strong. Plus the Democratic system with Super Delegates favor well known experienced party candidates.

 

[U2Edge]

Rasmussen has their own problems. They use robocalls to conduct their polls. Since robocalls are illegal, that means they can only call people with landlines. That means they oversample Republicans. Also likely voters mean that they make a guesstimate as to what the turnout will be. In 2018, Rasmussen goofed badly as they had Republicans +1 in the generic ballot when Democrats won by around 9.

In addition, the exact composition of the turnout can vary. In Pennsylvania, the suburbs made up 52% of the vote and 57% in 2018. Trump won the vote 52-44 in 2016 and lost the suburban vote around 9 points. Women went 55-42 for Democrats in 2016 and 63-35 in 2018.

Age does not make one wise. Plenty of older people are scammed and Trump is a premier con man.

It is funny how different people see things so differently. I see Pelosi, Schumer, Harry Reid, Wasserman Shultz and so on the same as you see Trump.

The numbers show that most people agree with me on Trump. That is why they gave the Democrats the House.

No

That is not how it works

That is the way it has worked. Voters have been energized to vote against Trump since he won in 2016.

I am sure the Republicans thought the same thing when they won over 60 seats in the house and 6 seats in the senate back in 2010. I am sure the Republicans felt equally good in 1994, after taking 50 seats in the house and 8 seats in the senate. Romney went on to lose in a landslide. Dole got absolutely throttled in 1996. Thing is, the Dems win last November was much weaker than the 2010 & 1994 Republican victories. The Dems even lost ground in the senate. That is a poor result compared to other recent waves in 2010 and 1994. I expect the same result in 2020 as 1996 and 2010. Trump (sitting President) wins relatively easy.

With Schiff and Pelosi walking back impeachment ahead of the Meuller report, I think the writing is on the wall.

The Democrats won in 2018 despite the Gerry rigged districting that the Republicans had set up in many states to favor their house candidates chances of victory. With the Senate its a matter of timing. A lot of Senators were not up for election in 2018 which gives the false impression of strength for the Republicans in that chamber. Trump's damage to the Republican party will come into greater view in 2020. It may take until 2028 or 2032 for the Republicans to recover from Trump.

 

[U2Edge]

If it is Biden vs Trump, the Dems are in for some pain. Biden is a lightweight. He is as weak a candidate as they come. Biden is no where near the candidate that Hillary Clinton was in 2016. Biden knew better to even try, and Sanders went quickly into the fetal position when push came to shove.

Look at the midterms for 1982, 1994 & 2010. How did those results reflect the next general election? One of the few exceptions was 2002, when Bush picked up a few seats following 911.

I don't know who the Dem nominee will be. But, it wont be Biden or Sanders. They are pushovers. One of the others will step up and crush them, or Clinton will be rolled out by the DNC to save the day.

If it is Biden vs Trump then the Republicans will be feeling the pain. Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate in 2016. She ran much weaker than Biden or even Sanders in general election matchups against Republicans. She was largely able to win because Sanders had no hope of matching her nationwide reach.

2020 will reflect the midterms. Trump was a major factor in the midterms with suburban women especially burying the GOP. They will turn out in 2020 as well.

Women will definitely be out in the millions to vote Trump out of office. Biden will help insure Trump will lose the man vote as well.

 

[U2Edge]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

Sorry, but its not going to save Trump.

 

[U2Edge]

Here is a new poll in Michigan on the BIDEN VS. TRUMP match up for 2020 by the polling company EMERSON:

BIDEN: 54%

TRUMP: 46%


Biden wins by 8% over Trump in Michigan! In the Detroitnews poll from last month, Biden was ahead by 13 points. Either way, different polling organizations are showing Trump losing by a considerable margin to Biden in a 2020 match up.

See the change from 14 points down to 8

That shows trump will win

Because the more people thinks on an issue the more they see trump as the best

If it was the same polling company you might have a point. But these were polls from to DIFFERENT companies. 8 points, 13 points, 5 points, or 3 points, it won't matter, Trump will lose Michigan which means all of Michigan's electoral votes will go to Biden.

 

[U2Edge]

Rasmussen has their own problems. They use robocalls to conduct their polls. Since robocalls are illegal, that means they can only call people with landlines. That means they oversample Republicans. Also likely voters mean that they make a guesstimate as to what the turnout will be. In 2018, Rasmussen goofed badly as they had Republicans +1 in the generic ballot when Democrats won by around 9.

In addition, the exact composition of the turnout can vary. In Pennsylvania, the suburbs made up 52% of the vote and 57% in 2018. Trump won the vote 52-44 in 2016 and lost the suburban vote around 9 points. Women went 55-42 for Democrats in 2016 and 63-35 in 2018.

Age does not make one wise. Plenty of older people are scammed and Trump is a premier con man.

It is funny how different people see things so differently. I see Pelosi, Schumer, Harry Reid, Wasserman Shultz and so on the same as you see Trump.

The numbers show that most people agree with me on Trump. That is why they gave the Democrats the House.

No

That is not how it works

That is the way it has worked. Voters have been energized to vote against Trump since he won in 2016.

I am sure the Republicans thought the same thing when they won over 60 seats in the house and 6 seats in the senate back in 2010. I am sure the Republicans felt equally good in 1994, after taking 50 seats in the house and 8 seats in the senate. Romney went on to lose in a landslide. Dole got absolutely throttled in 1996. Thing is, the Dems win last November was much weaker than the 2010 & 1994 Republican victories. The Dems even lost ground in the senate. That is a poor result compared to other recent waves in 2010 and 1994. I expect the same result in 2020 as 1996 and 2010. Trump (sitting President) wins relatively easy.

With Schiff and Pelosi walking back impeachment ahead of the Meuller report, I think the writing is on the wall.

With the election only 20 months away, why bother with impeachment. Its better for Democrats to face a wounded animal in the 2020 election. It will make it and easy kill, slaughter, and a fabulous celebratory feast and victory.

 

[kyzr]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

 

[GreenAndBlue]

It is funny how different people see things so differently. I see Pelosi, Schumer, Harry Reid, Wasserman Shultz and so on the same as you see Trump.

The numbers show that most people agree with me on Trump. That is why they gave the Democrats the House.

No

That is not how it works

That is the way it has worked. Voters have been energized to vote against Trump since he won in 2016.

I am sure the Republicans thought the same thing when they won over 60 seats in the house and 6 seats in the senate back in 2010. I am sure the Republicans felt equally good in 1994, after taking 50 seats in the house and 8 seats in the senate. Romney went on to lose in a landslide. Dole got absolutely throttled in 1996. Thing is, the Dems win last November was much weaker than the 2010 & 1994 Republican victories. The Dems even lost ground in the senate. That is a poor result compared to other recent waves in 2010 and 1994. I expect the same result in 2020 as 1996 and 2010. Trump (sitting President) wins relatively easy.

With Schiff and Pelosi walking back impeachment ahead of the Meuller report, I think the writing is on the wall.

With the election only 20 months away, why bother with impeachment. Its better for Democrats to face a wounded animal in the 2020 election. It will make it and easy kill, slaughter, and a fabulous celebratory feast and victory.

No it's all about running and hiding

The rats are ready to start jumping ship

The one issue that will be screamed all over is his democrats are going against science and murdering us citizens with abortion

This issue will have people to draw a line and the. Know who are the liars and crooks

The democrat party is now toast

 

[U2Edge]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

 

[U2Edge]

The numbers show that most people agree with me on Trump. That is why they gave the Democrats the House.

No

That is not how it works

That is the way it has worked. Voters have been energized to vote against Trump since he won in 2016.

I am sure the Republicans thought the same thing when they won over 60 seats in the house and 6 seats in the senate back in 2010. I am sure the Republicans felt equally good in 1994, after taking 50 seats in the house and 8 seats in the senate. Romney went on to lose in a landslide. Dole got absolutely throttled in 1996. Thing is, the Dems win last November was much weaker than the 2010 & 1994 Republican victories. The Dems even lost ground in the senate. That is a poor result compared to other recent waves in 2010 and 1994. I expect the same result in 2020 as 1996 and 2010. Trump (sitting President) wins relatively easy.

With Schiff and Pelosi walking back impeachment ahead of the Meuller report, I think the writing is on the wall.

With the election only 20 months away, why bother with impeachment. Its better for Democrats to face a wounded animal in the 2020 election. It will make it and easy kill, slaughter, and a fabulous celebratory feast and victory.

No it's all about running and hiding

The rats are ready to start jumping ship

The one issue that will be screamed all over is his democrats are going against science and murdering us citizens with abortion

This issue will have people to draw a line and the. Know who are the liars and crooks

The democrat party is now toast

The Democratic party just won back the House Of Representatives in the 2018 election. Trump is only averaging 40% in the Gallup approval ratings poll after over two years as President. That's the worst average approval rating of any President in history. Then there are the national polls and state polls showing Biden beating Trump in many places and even challenging Trump for TEXAS. When a Republican President has to fight to win Texas, its over for them.

 

[GreenAndBlue]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

This below is the proof trump will win in 2020

The winner of Florida wins the election

Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

 

[kyzr]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

Nice rationale', hope it works out for you. A Trump-Biden contest would be worth the price of admission!
More comments on your post:
1. The young progressives want a young candidate, so it looks like a generational battle, old folks vs young folks, 73% of dems want a "fresh face"
73% of Democrats Want ‘A Fresh Face’ As 2020 Nominee - Rasmussen Reports®
2. Not sure who the minority voters prefer? Can't find any polls?!
3. Sanders didn't "fail" against Clinton, the party (Brazille and Wasserman-Schultz) cheated Bernie out of the nomination, it all depends who the party tells the "super-delegates" to vote for. In 2020 to your point, that would be Joe Biden. So Bernie gets screwed again...

 

[Mike473]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

Nice rationale', hope it works out for you. A Trump-Biden contest would be worth the price of admission!
More comments on your post:
1. The young progressives want a young candidate, so it looks like a generational battle, old folks vs young folks, 73% of dems want a "fresh face"
73% of Democrats Want ‘A Fresh Face’ As 2020 Nominee - Rasmussen Reports®
2. Not sure who the minority voters prefer? Can't find any polls?!
3. Sanders didn't "fail" against Clinton, the party (Brazille and Wasserman-Schultz) cheated Bernie out of the nomination, it all depends who the party tells the "super-delegates" to vote for. In 2020 to your point, that would be Joe Biden. So Bernie gets screwed again...

Bernie crawled into the fetal position and tapped out. That is what happened.

 

[GreenAndBlue]

When has a candidate won the president race and still lost Florida ??

Trump has Florida locked up

And those Florida voters helps sway penn and Ohio voters

So trump
Is a lock to win 2020


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

 

[GreenAndBlue]

Looks like the conservatives of New York
Are fleeing out of that loser state
To fla to PA to Ohio and mich and making them more easy for trump to win again in 2020

 

[GreenAndBlue]

The winner of Florida wins the 2020
Election and may lose the popular vote because of so many conservatives fleeing New York and California to the swing states

Popular gov Desantis will bring Florida to trump


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

 

[Natural Citizen]

lol. Polls....

 

[GWV5903]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

You just go with that, it worked so well for you last time...

 

[GreenAndBlue]

Even if trump loses the popular vote
He still wins because of the conservatives fleeing New York and California to the SWING STATES !!

 

[Aponi]

So we should assume trump would beat biden? Right? Aint that how presidential polls go? Lol

The left assumed in 2016....they're still reeling

Just throw something shiney in a croud of them and watch the fight break out