What the national polls say about a 2020 Trump vs. Biden race.

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

90% of Hillary Clintons votes came from just 5 places. Los Angelos, Chicago, New York City, New Orleans. and your Ass.

She only won 15% of The Geographical US.

To win a National Election, you cannot just appeal to such a narrow concentrated Demographic.

The Electoral College was designed to defeat that, and make sure that a President appealed to the widest possible cross section of The Country.

Trump won 85% of all the counties in THE US, and that is exactly how The Electoral College was supposed to Work.

I think he wins by an even wider margin now as any concerns about his ability to do the job have no merit, and scare tactics by The Left are going to fall on deaf ears.

Carry on with your propaganda campaign. You go girl.

People just aren't going to listen this time. It had some traction back in 2016...but you dimwits have painted yourself in a corner having accomplished nothing but division, calls for impeachment, your subpoena cannon, and your Nothing Burger waste of $40 Million Dollars on Moscow Mueller.

The Democrats did win back the House Of Representatives which The Donald is not happy about. I support the electoral college for some the reasons you mentioned. Having said that, the winner of the popular vote is still more than 90% of the time also the winner of the electoral college. No sitting President has ever been re-elected without winning the popular vote.

The polling to date on Trump VS. Biden does not look good for Trump at all. Trump has the lowest average approval rating of any President in history after over two years in office. His average after two years is 40%. The next lowest average was Truman at 45% and he declined to run for a second election after his first victory in 1948.

I'm waiting for the next Trump VS. Biden matchup poll to be released. Will see if Trump's position improves at all.

October 25, 2016...NYTimes gave Hillary 93% chance of winning the election.
2016 Election Forecast: Who Will Be President?



Your candidate:
Joe Biden: ‘I’ve Never Been Gainfully Employed In My Life’
Joe Biden: ‘I’ve Never Been Gainfully Employed In My Life’ | Breitbart

There's nothing like putting a free-loader in charge of the economy, huh?

Biden's worked far harder in his life than Trump. Biden has served the nation most of his life. Trump inherited his money, and squandered much of it. Trump was never a good businessman. His real talent is in being a talk show host, a shock jock. His mouth and the crazy that comes out of it is where his talent lies. He should have been like Rush Limbaugh or Howard Stern. Business, economics, policy analysis, and politics are not where his talents lie.

Bring up Hillary and the 2016 election all you like. It won't save Trump from defeat in 2020.

You have to be kidding me? I think you have even surpassed Ocassional-Cortex on the "Oh, my God, I am so fucking stupid!" scale!

 

[Mac1958]

I don't know if this matters, but the polls were actually not far off.

They were issued based on human votes, not electoral votes.

They predicted a narrow Hillary win in popular votes, and that's what happened.
.

Why would anyone pay attention to such polls, knowing that would not win the election? Oh, I forgot! Libtards!

I know, polls only matter when you like them.

Partisans. Funny.
.

 

[GreenAndBlue]

The age group that includes 60 yr olds

Have the most experience to learn good from bad and this group is most for trump and they turn out to vote. At 71%

The least experienced group that includes the 18 yr old has the least experience to learn good from bad and they vote most for liberals and they turn out the least of all groups. 42%

So this shows only polls that weighs correctly likely voters are legit

Like rasmussen

 

[GreenAndBlue]

Poll on mich. by nbc news

Had Clinton besting trump by 16 points. But trump got more votes

That same poll said sanders would best trump by 22 points

That poll was off by 17 points

A poll like that will energize the democrats and deflate the conservatives. And may have cheated to gain 3 or 4 points for the democrats

And this is why they keep putting out the fraud polls

 

[GreenAndBlue]

Trump will need to win by over 5 points to offset the crooked polls agenda

 

[kyzr]

I see an unqualified opinion, but nothing to back it up. So lets just say we'll see in 2020. Remember how Hillary had a 95% probability of winning in 2016?

She won by 3 million votes. The polls were right. A fluke of the electoral college is how Trump pulled out a victory. Its rare that it happens. No sitting President has been re-elected without winning the Popular vote.

Stop with that bullshit. HILLARY LOST TO TRUMP. There is no "popular vote" there is only the Electoral College.
Watch the video and see how the MSM went thru all the states and said that there was no way Trump could win the election.
The MSM/CNN said in the video that Hillary had a 95% probability of winning the election. Its the election that matters not the popular vote. The polls were all wrong.

01. The National Polls are predicting the popular vote.

02. Over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote wins the electoral college. There have been 58 Presidential elections. In only 5 of those elections, did the popular vote winner, fail to win the electoral college. Its a rare fluke when the popular vote winner is not the winner of the electoral college.

03. The National Polls predicted Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote.

04. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote proving that the polls were correct.

05. Trump's victory in the electoral college was a rare fluke and it was a victory by very tiny margins in three states that the Hillary Campaign had neglected in terms of visits and funding.

06. One news organization predicted Hillary has a 95% chance of winning is not representative of all polling organizations and all elections before that time or since that time. The prediction also was NOT 100% chance of winning either.

07. The national polls correctly predicted the popular vote in 2016. No sitting President has ever been re-elected without winning the popular vote.

08. There is such a thing as rare win under unlikely conditions based on probability. That is exactly what happened in 2016. Trump was lucky. You can be lucky once, but it would not be rational to believe that 2016 shows or proves that Trump is going to win in 2020. The razor thin margin of victory and how improbable the victory was in 2016 makes it extremely unlikely that situation will repeat itself in 2020.

09. Trump will not be re-elected President in 2020 without winning the popular vote. The average of his approval ratings the past two years and the early polling match ups against Biden done by multiple polling agencies, all show that Trumps chances in 2020 are even less likely than they were in 2016.

1. We aren't talking about national polls, my video shows how the MSM predicted THE 2016 ELECTION (not national polls)
2. irrelevant
3. irrelevant (the popular vote does not elect the president)
4. Wrong. The MSM polls in my video predicted Hillary would win the election (the pop vote is irrelevant)
5. A win is a win baby, come on 2020
6. The majority of polls predicted that Hillary would win the election, i.e. the EC, they were wrong for whatever reasons
7. the 2016 pop vote is irrelevant, 2020 will be decided by the EC, NOT the popular vote
8. Agreed. Trump barely won in 2016 in spite of the FBI, DOJ, and MSM's coordinated efforts. He and we were very lucky. Since you cite history, don't incumbent presidents usually win re-election? I think they do.
Trump will likely win reelection in 2020
9. Stop with that popular vote bullshit. CA and NY can "harvest" all the votes they want and the EC negates their efforts.

Whatever you think of the polling in 2016, it does not invalidate all polling from then on and for eternity. Scientific polling has a good history, and Trump's campaign like any campaign will be using polling data when thinking and deciding on campaign strategy. You can't dismiss polling in 2019 or 2020, by simply saying that well this happened in 2016, so Trump is all good. You are In for a rude awakening with that type of logic.

The electoral college saved Trump by a razor thin margin in 2016. That's unlikely to happen in 2020. He is going to need to win the popular vote to have any chance of winning the Electoral college.

The popular vote and Electoral College are not really separate things actually. They are intertwined with each other especially since its the popular vote in each state which determines who gets the Electoral Votes of that state.

Key metrics like Trump's approval ratings, and how he does in polling against the Democratic candidates show that he is seriously vulnerable. Most people don't approve of the job he is doing. About 48% say there is no way they would ever vote for him. Your a thin Ice when 48% of the country already states that there is no way they will vote for you.

Good post. Agree on polling, polls can be accurate if free from bias. The IBD poll (Investor's Business Daily) correctly predicted the Trump win. I firmly believe that some polls try to influence the electorate, like the incorrect 2016 polls seen on CNN (in the video) that said Hillary had a 95% probability of winning (so why waste your time voting for Trump?).

We can disagree on the popular vote. IMHO states like CA and NY distort the popular vote results as well as 3rd and 4th party candidates running. Got any illegals voting or "vote harvesting" going on there? For a true popular vote win there should only be two candidates to pick from, and strict voter ID laws.

2020 will sort out the polls again.

 

[PoliticalChic]

I see an unqualified opinion, but nothing to back it up. So lets just say we'll see in 2020. Remember how Hillary had a 95% probability of winning in 2016?

She won by 3 million votes. The polls were right. A fluke of the electoral college is how Trump pulled out a victory. Its rare that it happens. No sitting President has been re-elected without winning the Popular vote.

As I showed.....she did no such thing.


How many illegal aliens reside in the USofA?

It's something else you're clueless about.

Doesn't matter who they are because they will be voting again in 2020 and this time in even higher numbers AGAINST Trump.

I need to get you on record: just fine with you that illegal aliens vote in our elections.



You are the perfect example of why America-hating Democrats/Liberals need be exiles, and government schools revamped, the Leftist agents removed.


Please keep posting.

Trump appears to be a Russian asset, so everything needs to be done to remove him from office. Better to have illegals voting in US elections(which THEY are not in any significant amount) than to have a Russian asset sitting in the White House. Russia and their potential asset in the White House are a far bigger threat than anyone from Latin America.

I'm a Republican and prior to 2016 had NEVER voted for a Democrat.

"Trump appears to be a Russian asset, "


Gads, you're a moron....


Anti-Russia Actions by Trump…things that have directly and indirectly effected Russia

1.Bombed Russian ally, Syria, hitting Russian facilities killing a number of Russian military

2.Pulled out of the Iran deal…a Russian signee

3.Pulled out of Paris Accords….a Russian signee

4.Sanctions against Russia…460 sanctions against individuals and entities

5.Expelled Russian diplomats

6.Gave Ukraine Javelin anti-tank missiles to use against Russian proxies

7. Obama….more flexible, Hillary ‘reset button,’ wouldn’t give Poland defensive missiles, Uranium one deal….

8. At the NATO meeting, he warned Germany not to make huge energy deals enriching Russia….

9. “For years, the Clintons have been taking money from Russia. Usually, the price for a speech was at least $250,000. What does Bill or Hillary have to talk about that would warrant taking that much for speaking for only about 30-45 minutes? It is ironic Hillary claims that Trump is Putin’s puppet, considering she has no problem taking money from shady Russian sources.


10. …something else about Hillary. An FBI informant stated that Russia paid millions of dollars to lobby so that Clinton’s charities would receive assistance. The biggest catch is Hillary was Secretary of State when this occurred. Can we say pay to play? It looks like Hillary knows more about colluding with Russia than anyone else.


Her loud barking about Moscow is a played straight out of the Saul Alinsky Rules for Radicals book. Accuse the other side of impropriety while you are doing that same thing. In truth, Russian money was probably used in Hillary’s election campaign.”
Since When Do Democrats Hate Russia?





And, of course, you dunce, first and foremost.....

Russia is a dictatorship.
Nothing emanates from Moscow without Putin's imprimatur....
The 'information' in the infamous 'dossier' came from Russia.

Now.....if Putin wanted Trump to win.......would there have ever.......ever.....been a dossier?????


QED......the candidate of Vladimir Putin was Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.

 

[PoliticalChic]

I see an unqualified opinion, but nothing to back it up. So lets just say we'll see in 2020. Remember how Hillary had a 95% probability of winning in 2016?

She won by 3 million votes. The polls were right. A fluke of the electoral college is how Trump pulled out a victory. Its rare that it happens. No sitting President has been re-elected without winning the Popular vote.

Stop with that bullshit. HILLARY LOST TO TRUMP. There is no "popular vote" there is only the Electoral College.
Watch the video and see how the MSM went thru all the states and said that there was no way Trump could win the election.
The MSM/CNN said in the video that Hillary had a 95% probability of winning the election. Its the election that matters not the popular vote. The polls were all wrong.

01. The National Polls are predicting the popular vote.

02. Over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote wins the electoral college. There have been 58 Presidential elections. In only 5 of those elections, did the popular vote winner, fail to win the electoral college. Its a rare fluke when the popular vote winner is not the winner of the electoral college.

03. The National Polls predicted Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote.

04. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote proving that the polls were correct.

05. Trump's victory in the electoral college was a rare fluke and it was a victory by very tiny margins in three states that the Hillary Campaign had neglected in terms of visits and funding.

06. One news organization predicted Hillary has a 95% chance of winning is not representative of all polling organizations and all elections before that time or since that time. The prediction also was NOT 100% chance of winning either.

07. The national polls correctly predicted the popular vote in 2016. No sitting President has ever been re-elected without winning the popular vote.

08. There is such a thing as rare win under unlikely conditions based on probability. That is exactly what happened in 2016. Trump was lucky. You can be lucky once, but it would not be rational to believe that 2016 shows or proves that Trump is going to win in 2020. The razor thin margin of victory and how improbable the victory was in 2016 makes it extremely unlikely that situation will repeat itself in 2020.

09. Trump will not be re-elected President in 2020 without winning the popular vote. The average of his approval ratings the past two years and the early polling match ups against Biden done by multiple polling agencies, all show that Trumps chances in 2020 are even less likely than they were in 2016.

1. We aren't talking about national polls, my video shows how the MSM predicted THE 2016 ELECTION (not national polls)
2. irrelevant
3. irrelevant (the popular vote does not elect the president)
4. Wrong. The MSM polls in my video predicted Hillary would win the election (the pop vote is irrelevant)
5. A win is a win baby, come on 2020
6. The majority of polls predicted that Hillary would win the election, i.e. the EC, they were wrong for whatever reasons
7. the 2016 pop vote is irrelevant, 2020 will be decided by the EC, NOT the popular vote
8. Agreed. Trump barely won in 2016 in spite of the FBI, DOJ, and MSM's coordinated efforts. He and we were very lucky. Since you cite history, don't incumbent presidents usually win re-election? I think they do.
Trump will likely win reelection in 2020
9. Stop with that popular vote bullshit. CA and NY can "harvest" all the votes they want and the EC negates their efforts.

Whatever you think of the polling in 2016, it does not invalidate all polling from then on and for eternity. Scientific polling has a good history, and Trump's campaign like any campaign will be using polling data when thinking and deciding on campaign strategy. You can't dismiss polling in 2019 or 2020, by simply saying that well this happened in 2016, so Trump is all good. You are In for a rude awakening with that type of logic.

The electoral college saved Trump by a razer thin margin in 2016. That's unlikely to happen in 2020. He is going to need to win the popular vote to have any chance of winning the Electoral college.

The popular vote and Electoral College are not really separate things actually. They are intertwined with each other especially since its the popular vote in each state which determines who gets the Electoral Votes of that state.

Key metrics like Trump's approval ratings, and how he does in polling against the Democratic candidates show that he is seriously vulnerable. Most people don't approve of the job he is doing. About 48% say there is no way they would ever vote for him. Your a thin Ice when 48% of the country already states that there is no way they will vote for you.

“Survey finds Hillary Clinton has ‘more than 99% chance’ of winning election over Donald Trump” Saturday 5 November 2016 17:44

The man who predicted 49 out of 50 states in 2012 has said who will win on Tuesday


The Russians colluded to support their bribe partner, Bill's wife.....
...here's why:
[October 25, 2016...NYTimes gave Hillary 93% chance of winning the election.
2016 Election Forecast: Who Will Be President?]

 

[SmokeALib]

O'Biden (ie. creepy joe) is dumber than 2 rocks.

 

[SmokeALib]

Even the Washington Compost published Creepy Joe in action:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...e-biden/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.63181a781177

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

I don't know if this matters, but the polls were actually not far off.

They were issued based on human votes, not electoral votes.

They predicted a narrow Hillary win in popular votes, and that's what happened.
.

Why would anyone pay attention to such polls, knowing that would not win the election? Oh, I forgot! Libtards!

I know, polls only matter when you like them.

Partisans. Funny.
.

Polls only matter when you are a dumbass who is easily swayed by false information.

 

[Mac1958]

I don't know if this matters, but the polls were actually not far off.

They were issued based on human votes, not electoral votes.

They predicted a narrow Hillary win in popular votes, and that's what happened.
.

Why would anyone pay attention to such polls, knowing that would not win the election? Oh, I forgot! Libtards!

I know, polls only matter when you like them.

Partisans. Funny.
.

Polls only matter when you are a dumbass who is easily swayed by false information.

Well, there's some irony for ya.
.

 

[GreenAndBlue]

This proves how crooked the whole system is

The whole deep state system

///////////

How did 2016 voters and nonvoters compare?
The data also provide a profile of voting-eligible nonvoters. Four-in-ten Americans who were eligible to vote did not do so in 2016. There are striking demographic differences between voters and nonvoters, and significant political differences as well. Compared with validated voters, nonvoters were more likely to be younger, less educated, less affluent and nonwhite. And nonvoters were much more Democratic.

/////.

All polls are BS that does not poll for likely voters

Only Rasmussen polls correctly
And this shows all educators and all media not speaking up is part of this treason to stop a fair election

Many sites makes their money from making the fighting equal

So these sites will help the loser side to be more equal to bring more drama and profits

What will now happen since all this insane greed for profit will keep the harmful group equal for the money

What will happen is a stampede of the wise to other wise and both away from the unwise

When the wise flees they the come together and start their offense to totally stop this insane greed to brainwash the unwise

Trump has the men


Trump has the white men in a landslide

A total change will now come and strict laws will come that stops making money off of increasing drama and fighting

The harmers must be the losers and not propped up by the insane greed !

 

[GreenAndBlue]

As the above post says

Non voters much more democratic

That then means the unwise are democrats !!

And that means this nation will fall if not severely stopped

The insane greed that props up the harmers as equal to non harmers to increase profits must be stopped

 

[busybee01]

The age group that includes 60 yr olds

Have the most experience to learn good from bad and this group is most for trump and they turn out to vote. At 71%

The least experienced group that includes the 18 yr old has the least experience to learn good from bad and they vote most for liberals and they turn out the least of all groups. 42%

So this shows only polls that weighs correctly likely voters are legit

Like rasmussen

A likely voter poll is one in which the pollster tries to estimate the turnout. It can be based on history but it can be based on other factors as well. Since Trump was elected, polls have underestimated Democrat support.

Final Results -- -- 53.3 44.9 Democrats +8.4
RCP Average 10/13 - 11/3 -- 49.7 42.4 Democrats +7.3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/1 - 11/3 774 LV 50 43 Democrats +7
CNN 11/1 - 11/3 1151 LV 55 42 Democrats +13
ABC News/Wash Post 10/29 - 11/1 737 LV 52 44 Democrats +8
Rasmussen Reports 10/28 - 11/1 2500 LV 45 46 Republicans +1
IBD/TIPP 10/25 - 11/3 798 LV 50 41 Democrats +9
Economist/YouGov 10/28 - 10/30 1296 RV 47 42 Democrats +5
NPR/PBS/Marist 10/28 - 10/29 509 LV 52 43 Democrats +9
Harvard-Harris 10/26 - 10/28 1835 RV 47 38 Democrats +9
Reuters/Ipsos 10/24 - 10/30 1383 LV 49 42 Democrats +7
USA Today/Suffolk 10/18 - 10/22 1000 LV 51 43 Democrats +8
FOX News 10/13 - 10/16 841 LV 49 42 Democrats +7

These are the final polls for the 2018 midterms. There was very little difference between registered and likely voters. You also see most of the pollsters got it very close. The 2 exceptions were CNN which had a larger margin for Democrats than actual turnout. The second was Rasmussen which got the party ahead wrong and missed by 9.4 points. Clearly their estimate of who was going to vote was completely wrong.

 

[busybee01]

This proves how crooked the whole system is

The whole deep state system

///////////

How did 2016 voters and nonvoters compare?
The data also provide a profile of voting-eligible nonvoters. Four-in-ten Americans who were eligible to vote did not do so in 2016. There are striking demographic differences between voters and nonvoters, and significant political differences as well. Compared with validated voters, nonvoters were more likely to be younger, less educated, less affluent and nonwhite. And nonvoters were much more Democratic.

/////.

All polls are BS that does not poll for likely voters

Only Rasmussen polls correctly
And this shows all educators and all media not speaking up is part of this treason to stop a fair election

Many sites makes their money from making the fighting equal

So these sites will help the loser side to be more equal to bring more drama and profits

What will now happen since all this insane greed for profit will keep the harmful group equal for the money

What will happen is a stampede of the wise to other wise and both away from the unwise

When the wise flees they the come together and start their offense to totally stop this insane greed to brainwash the unwise

Trump has the men


Trump has the white men in a landslide

A total change will now come and strict laws will come that stops making money off of increasing drama and fighting

The harmers must be the losers and not propped up by the insane greed !

That is so much bullshit. All you prove is that you know nothing about polling. Your attempt to justify Rasmussen's polling does not jive with facts. They were completely wrong about the 2018 midterms yet you refuse to recognize that.

There is no treason and there is no threat to fair elections. The threat is Republican attempts to stop people from voting or to not count votes once they are cast.

There is no such thing as wise and unwise voters. Someone voting for a candidate you like does not make them wise and someone who votes for a candidate you do not like does not make them unwise.

There is nothing inherently wise about white men. They are subject to being taken in by a con artist like Trump.

 

[g5000]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

Both of them are geezers. Way too old to be President. Trump is already slurring and forgetting his lines.

We need new blood.

 

[GreenAndBlue]

This proves how crooked the whole system is

The whole deep state system

///////////

How did 2016 voters and nonvoters compare?
The data also provide a profile of voting-eligible nonvoters. Four-in-ten Americans who were eligible to vote did not do so in 2016. There are striking demographic differences between voters and nonvoters, and significant political differences as well. Compared with validated voters, nonvoters were more likely to be younger, less educated, less affluent and nonwhite. And nonvoters were much more Democratic.

/////.

All polls are BS that does not poll for likely voters

Only Rasmussen polls correctly
And this shows all educators and all media not speaking up is part of this treason to stop a fair election

Many sites makes their money from making the fighting equal

So these sites will help the loser side to be more equal to bring more drama and profits

What will now happen since all this insane greed for profit will keep the harmful group equal for the money

What will happen is a stampede of the wise to other wise and both away from the unwise

When the wise flees they the come together and start their offense to totally stop this insane greed to brainwash the unwise

Trump has the men


Trump has the white men in a landslide

A total change will now come and strict laws will come that stops making money off of increasing drama and fighting

The harmers must be the losers and not propped up by the insane greed !

That is so much bullshit. All you prove is that you know nothing about polling. Your attempt to justify Rasmussen's polling does not jive with facts. They were completely wrong about the 2018 midterms yet you refuse to recognize that.

There is no treason and there is no threat to fair elections. The threat is Republican attempts to stop people from voting or to not count votes once they are cast.

There is no such thing as wise and unwise voters. Someone voting for a candidate you like does not make them wise and someone who votes for a candidate you do not like does not make them unwise.

There is nothing inherently wise about white men. They are subject to being taken in by a con artist like Trump.

Wrong Dead Wrong again

What people brought the world out of the misery of the Stone Age?

And stopped infant sky high mortality rates

Learn some history !!!!!!!!!

And about

Registered voters compared to likely voters

From Nate silver

//////

Registered Voter Polls Will (Usually) Overrate Democrats
By Nate Silver

 

[GreenAndBlue]

The age group that includes 60 yr olds

Have the most experience to learn good from bad and this group is most for trump and they turn out to vote. At 71%

The least experienced group that includes the 18 yr old has the least experience to learn good from bad and they vote most for liberals and they turn out the least of all groups. 42%

So this shows only polls that weighs correctly likely voters are legit

Like rasmussen

A likely voter poll is one in which the pollster tries to estimate the turnout. It can be based on history but it can be based on other factors as well. Since Trump was elected, polls have underestimated Democrat support.

Final Results -- -- 53.3 44.9 Democrats +8.4
RCP Average 10/13 - 11/3 -- 49.7 42.4 Democrats +7.3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/1 - 11/3 774 LV 50 43 Democrats +7
CNN 11/1 - 11/3 1151 LV 55 42 Democrats +13
ABC News/Wash Post 10/29 - 11/1 737 LV 52 44 Democrats +8
Rasmussen Reports 10/28 - 11/1 2500 LV 45 46 Republicans +1
IBD/TIPP 10/25 - 11/3 798 LV 50 41 Democrats +9
Economist/YouGov 10/28 - 10/30 1296 RV 47 42 Democrats +5
NPR/PBS/Marist 10/28 - 10/29 509 LV 52 43 Democrats +9
Harvard-Harris 10/26 - 10/28 1835 RV 47 38 Democrats +9
Reuters/Ipsos 10/24 - 10/30 1383 LV 49 42 Democrats +7
USA Today/Suffolk 10/18 - 10/22 1000 LV 51 43 Democrats +8
FOX News 10/13 - 10/16 841 LV 49 42 Democrats +7

These are the final polls for the 2018 midterms. There was very little difference between registered and likely voters. You also see most of the pollsters got it very close. The 2 exceptions were CNN which had a larger margin for Democrats than actual turnout. The second was Rasmussen which got the party ahead wrong and missed by 9.4 points. Clearly their estimate of who was going to vote was completely wrong.

The likely voters done by Gallup is only asking them if they plan to vote

The likely voters with Rasmussen works with reality and not hope

The 18-29. Turnout rate is 42%

That is the strongest group for liberals

The 50-64 group is the strongest group for conservatives because experience helps learn good from bad

This strongest group votes at 71% turn out

Polling these groups evenly is a major mistake

And some polls like Reuters uses only adults in America Not even registered And when a site averages then they are a fraud


So the democrats are out and out crooks and the men are waking up to this understanding and is spreading

 

[GreenAndBlue]

Again let this sink in

What does experience help with??

Yep knowing good and bad and this then has it outrageous that 18-29 can vote at all

Outrageous harm