What the national polls say about a 2020 Trump vs. Biden race.

[GreenAndBlue]

This last mid term

Had the house losing 41 seats to the Demos

But had the senate gaining 2

Compare to Obamas mid term 2014
He lost 63 seats in the house and 6 seats in the senate

Obama was relected with that

So trump should win by a landslide if patterns hold

 

[busybee01]

The age group that includes 60 yr olds

Have the most experience to learn good from bad and this group is most for trump and they turn out to vote. At 71%

The least experienced group that includes the 18 yr old has the least experience to learn good from bad and they vote most for liberals and they turn out the least of all groups. 42%

So this shows only polls that weighs correctly likely voters are legit

Like rasmussen

A likely voter poll is one in which the pollster tries to estimate the turnout. It can be based on history but it can be based on other factors as well. Since Trump was elected, polls have underestimated Democrat support.

Final Results -- -- 53.3 44.9 Democrats +8.4
RCP Average 10/13 - 11/3 -- 49.7 42.4 Democrats +7.3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/1 - 11/3 774 LV 50 43 Democrats +7
CNN 11/1 - 11/3 1151 LV 55 42 Democrats +13
ABC News/Wash Post 10/29 - 11/1 737 LV 52 44 Democrats +8
Rasmussen Reports 10/28 - 11/1 2500 LV 45 46 Republicans +1
IBD/TIPP 10/25 - 11/3 798 LV 50 41 Democrats +9
Economist/YouGov 10/28 - 10/30 1296 RV 47 42 Democrats +5
NPR/PBS/Marist 10/28 - 10/29 509 LV 52 43 Democrats +9
Harvard-Harris 10/26 - 10/28 1835 RV 47 38 Democrats +9
Reuters/Ipsos 10/24 - 10/30 1383 LV 49 42 Democrats +7
USA Today/Suffolk 10/18 - 10/22 1000 LV 51 43 Democrats +8
FOX News 10/13 - 10/16 841 LV 49 42 Democrats +7

These are the final polls for the 2018 midterms. There was very little difference between registered and likely voters. You also see most of the pollsters got it very close. The 2 exceptions were CNN which had a larger margin for Democrats than actual turnout. The second was Rasmussen which got the party ahead wrong and missed by 9.4 points. Clearly their estimate of who was going to vote was completely wrong.

The likely voters done by Gallup is only asking them if they plan to vote

The likely voters with Rasmussen works with reality and not hope

The 18-29. Turnout rate is 42%

That is the strongest group for liberals

The 50-64 group is the strongest group for conservatives because experience helps learn good from bad

This strongest group votes at 71% turn out

Polling these groups evenly is a major mistake

And some polls like Reuters uses only adults in America Not even registered And when a site averages then they are a fraud


So the democrats are out and out crooks and the men are waking up to this understanding and is spreading

Again you seem to ignore the fact that Rasmussen was way off on the midterms. If they are doing it right then why did they miss so badly? Reuters/Ipsos had Democrats up by 7. They came closer than Rasmussen. You poll these groups according to how likely you think they will turn out.

 

[busybee01]

This last mid term

Had the house losing 41 seats to the Demos

But had the senate gaining 2

Compare to Obamas mid term 2014
He lost 63 seats in the house and 6 seats in the senate

Obama was relected with that

So trump should win by a landslide if patterns hold

Republicans gained complete control over a number of states and used that to heavily gerrymander a number of states. That is one reason why Democrats lost so many House seats. That also kept down the number of losses in the 2018 midterms. Example is Pennsylvania. Under the gerrymandered map, Republicans had 13 of the 18 House seats. Under a fair map, Pennsylvania is a 9-9 tie.

The Senate had a very favorable map for Republicans. Losing only 2 seats was a victory for Democrats.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Biden 2020 go ahead pin your hopes on that fool

He was elected and re-elected Vice President. Served 8 years as Vice President. Democrats obviously like him and so does most of the United States.

We'll see who is laughing in November 2020. Trump is going home on January 20, 2021.

I'm guessing those are the same polls that said Hillary would win in a landslide in 2016.

 

[GreenAndBlue]

It seems all these polls switches their polling

All but Rasmussen


Rasmussen seems to stay with likely voters and uses reality as their source

The others switches to likely right before the election when all their damage has been done with their polls on adults or registered voters

The 18-29 age groups reality turnout is 42%. This is the most liberal group and is the group that turns out the less than any other group

The age group where experience teaches that liberalism is a scam age group 50-64. Is the most for conservatives and their reality turnout is 71%

So it's clear the whole deep state including the media and educators are crooked as all get out

They have now gone way too far now and must face the maximum penalty for treason
Educators that now goes against science to fool the 18 yr old grad on abortion must face the max treason punishment

Wow how could this happen in America ??

 

[U2Edge]

Here is a new poll in Michigan on the BIDEN VS. TRUMP match up for 2020 by the polling company EMERSON:

BIDEN: 54%

TRUMP: 46%


Biden wins by 8% over Trump in Michigan! In the Detroitnews poll from last month, Biden was ahead by 13 points. Either way, different polling organizations are showing Trump losing by a considerable margin to Biden in a 2020 match up.

 

[Mike473]

Gillum by 9

 

[U2Edge]

Biden is still out in front of the pack of Democratic contenders for the nomination despite not having declared yet:

Here are the RealClearPolitics list of averages for each candidate based on the latest polls:

Biden: 29%

Sanders: 22%

Harris: 11.3%

Warren: 7%

Booker: 5.8%

O'Rourke: 5.3%

Klobuchar: 3.7%

Hickenlooper: 1%

Castro: .8%

Gabbard: .8%

Gillibrand: .5%

Inslee: .5%


At this point, this looks like it will go down like the Clinton vs. Sanders match up in 2016. If anything, Sanders will have it tougher because so many other people are in the race compared to 2016. It will make it easier for Biden to win.

 

[Mike473]

If it is Biden vs Trump, the Dems are in for some pain. Biden is a lightweight. He is as weak a candidate as they come. Biden is no where near the candidate that Hillary Clinton was in 2016. Biden knew better to even try, and Sanders went quickly into the fetal position when push came to shove.

Look at the midterms for 1982, 1994 & 2010. How did those results reflect the next general election? One of the few exceptions was 2002, when Bush picked up a few seats following 911.

I don't know who the Dem nominee will be. But, it wont be Biden or Sanders. They are pushovers. One of the others will step up and crush them, or Clinton will be rolled out by the DNC to save the day.

 

[busybee01]

It seems all these polls switches their polling

All but Rasmussen


Rasmussen seems to stay with likely voters and uses reality as their source

The others switches to likely right before the election when all their damage has been done with their polls on adults or registered voters

The 18-29 age groups reality turnout is 42%. This is the most liberal group and is the group that turns out the less than any other group

The age group where experience teaches that liberalism is a scam age group 50-64. Is the most for conservatives and their reality turnout is 71%

So it's clear the whole deep state including the media and educators are crooked as all get out

They have now gone way too far now and must face the maximum penalty for treason
Educators that now goes against science to fool the 18 yr old grad on abortion must face the max treason punishment

Wow how could this happen in America ??

Rasmussen has their own problems. They use robocalls to conduct their polls. Since robocalls are illegal, that means they can only call people with landlines. That means they oversample Republicans. Also likely voters mean that they make a guesstimate as to what the turnout will be. In 2018, Rasmussen goofed badly as they had Republicans +1 in the generic ballot when Democrats won by around 9.

In addition, the exact composition of the turnout can vary. In Pennsylvania, the suburbs made up 52% of the vote and 57% in 2018. Trump won the vote 52-44 in 2016 and lost the suburban vote around 9 points in 2018. Women went 55-42 for Democrats in 2016 and 63-35 in 2018.

Age does not make one wise. Plenty of older people are scammed and Trump is a premier con man.

 

[Mike473]

It seems all these polls switches their polling

All but Rasmussen


Rasmussen seems to stay with likely voters and uses reality as their source

The others switches to likely right before the election when all their damage has been done with their polls on adults or registered voters

The 18-29 age groups reality turnout is 42%. This is the most liberal group and is the group that turns out the less than any other group

The age group where experience teaches that liberalism is a scam age group 50-64. Is the most for conservatives and their reality turnout is 71%

So it's clear the whole deep state including the media and educators are crooked as all get out

They have now gone way too far now and must face the maximum penalty for treason
Educators that now goes against science to fool the 18 yr old grad on abortion must face the max treason punishment

Wow how could this happen in America ??

Rasmussen has their own problems. They use robocalls to conduct their polls. Since robocalls are illegal, that means they can only call people with landlines. That means they oversample Republicans. Also likely voters mean that they make a guesstimate as to what the turnout will be. In 2018, Rasmussen goofed badly as they had Republicans +1 in the generic ballot when Democrats won by around 9.

In addition, the exact composition of the turnout can vary. In Pennsylvania, the suburbs made up 52% of the vote and 57% in 2018. Trump won the vote 52-44 in 2016 and lost the suburban vote around 9 points. Women went 55-42 for Democrats in 2016 and 63-35 in 2018.

Age does not make one wise. Plenty of older people are scammed and Trump is a premier con man.

It is funny how different people see things so differently. I see Pelosi, Schumer, Harry Reid, Wasserman Shultz and so on the same as you see Trump.

 

[busybee01]

If it is Biden vs Trump, the Dems are in for some pain. Biden is a lightweight. He is as weak a candidate as they come. Biden is no where near the candidate that Hillary Clinton was in 2016. Biden knew better to even try, and Sanders went quickly into the fetal position when push came to shove.

Look at the midterms for 1982, 1994 & 2010. How did those results reflect the next general election? One of the few exceptions was 2002, when Bush picked up a few seats following 911.

I don't know who the Dem nominee will be. But, it wont be Biden or Sanders. They are pushovers. One of the others will step up and crush them, or Clinton will be rolled out by the DNC to save the day.

If it is Biden vs Trump then the Republicans will be feeling the pain. Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate in 2016. She ran much weaker than Biden or even Sanders in general election matchups against Republicans. She was largely able to win because Sanders had no hope of matching her nationwide reach.

2020 will reflect the midterms. Trump was a major factor in the midterms with suburban women especially burying the GOP. They will turn out in 2020 as well.

 

[busybee01]

It seems all these polls switches their polling

All but Rasmussen


Rasmussen seems to stay with likely voters and uses reality as their source

The others switches to likely right before the election when all their damage has been done with their polls on adults or registered voters

The 18-29 age groups reality turnout is 42%. This is the most liberal group and is the group that turns out the less than any other group

The age group where experience teaches that liberalism is a scam age group 50-64. Is the most for conservatives and their reality turnout is 71%

So it's clear the whole deep state including the media and educators are crooked as all get out

They have now gone way too far now and must face the maximum penalty for treason
Educators that now goes against science to fool the 18 yr old grad on abortion must face the max treason punishment

Wow how could this happen in America ??

Rasmussen has their own problems. They use robocalls to conduct their polls. Since robocalls are illegal, that means they can only call people with landlines. That means they oversample Republicans. Also likely voters mean that they make a guesstimate as to what the turnout will be. In 2018, Rasmussen goofed badly as they had Republicans +1 in the generic ballot when Democrats won by around 9.

In addition, the exact composition of the turnout can vary. In Pennsylvania, the suburbs made up 52% of the vote and 57% in 2018. Trump won the vote 52-44 in 2016 and lost the suburban vote around 9 points. Women went 55-42 for Democrats in 2016 and 63-35 in 2018.

Age does not make one wise. Plenty of older people are scammed and Trump is a premier con man.

It is funny how different people see things so differently. I see Pelosi, Schumer, Harry Reid, Wasserman Shultz and so on the same as you see Trump.

The numbers show that most people agree with me on Trump. That is why they gave the Democrats the House.

 

[Rustic]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

 

[Rustic]

Repeat ad infinitum:

Creepy Joe Biden throws live puppies into rush hour traffic!

Creepy Joe Biden is a secret Satan worshiper!

Creepy Joe Biden fondles children!

Creepy Joe Biden is gay!

Creepy Joe Biden is the proprietor of Comet Pizza!

"Joe Biden" is Hebrew for "turtle fucker"!

Creepy Joe Biden killed Kennedy!

Creepy Joe Biden plagiarized Michelle Obama's speech!

Creepy Joe Biden slept with Stormy Daniels and paid her for her silence!

Creepy Joe Biden tried to get a Biden Tower built in Moscow!

Creepy Joe Biden bragged about grabbing pussies!

...And you would like to eat creepy Joe Biden’s dingleberries

 

[GreenAndBlue]

Here is a new poll in Michigan on the BIDEN VS. TRUMP match up for 2020 by the polling company EMERSON:

BIDEN: 54%

TRUMP: 46%


Biden wins by 8% over Trump in Michigan! In the Detroitnews poll from last month, Biden was ahead by 13 points. Either way, different polling organizations are showing Trump losing by a considerable margin to Biden in a 2020 match up.

See the change from 14 points down to 8

That shows trump will win

Because the more people thinks on an issue the more they see trump as the best

 

[GreenAndBlue]

It seems all these polls switches their polling

All but Rasmussen


Rasmussen seems to stay with likely voters and uses reality as their source

The others switches to likely right before the election when all their damage has been done with their polls on adults or registered voters

The 18-29 age groups reality turnout is 42%. This is the most liberal group and is the group that turns out the less than any other group

The age group where experience teaches that liberalism is a scam age group 50-64. Is the most for conservatives and their reality turnout is 71%

So it's clear the whole deep state including the media and educators are crooked as all get out

They have now gone way too far now and must face the maximum penalty for treason
Educators that now goes against science to fool the 18 yr old grad on abortion must face the max treason punishment

Wow how could this happen in America ??

Rasmussen has their own problems. They use robocalls to conduct their polls. Since robocalls are illegal, that means they can only call people with landlines. That means they oversample Republicans. Also likely voters mean that they make a guesstimate as to what the turnout will be. In 2018, Rasmussen goofed badly as they had Republicans +1 in the generic ballot when Democrats won by around 9.

In addition, the exact composition of the turnout can vary. In Pennsylvania, the suburbs made up 52% of the vote and 57% in 2018. Trump won the vote 52-44 in 2016 and lost the suburban vote around 9 points. Women went 55-42 for Democrats in 2016 and 63-35 in 2018.

Age does not make one wise. Plenty of older people are scammed and Trump is a premier con man.

It is funny how different people see things so differently. I see Pelosi, Schumer, Harry Reid, Wasserman Shultz and so on the same as you see Trump.

The numbers show that most people agree with me on Trump. That is why they gave the Democrats the House.

No

That is not how it works

 

[busybee01]

It seems all these polls switches their polling

All but Rasmussen


Rasmussen seems to stay with likely voters and uses reality as their source

The others switches to likely right before the election when all their damage has been done with their polls on adults or registered voters

The 18-29 age groups reality turnout is 42%. This is the most liberal group and is the group that turns out the less than any other group

The age group where experience teaches that liberalism is a scam age group 50-64. Is the most for conservatives and their reality turnout is 71%

So it's clear the whole deep state including the media and educators are crooked as all get out

They have now gone way too far now and must face the maximum penalty for treason
Educators that now goes against science to fool the 18 yr old grad on abortion must face the max treason punishment

Wow how could this happen in America ??

Rasmussen has their own problems. They use robocalls to conduct their polls. Since robocalls are illegal, that means they can only call people with landlines. That means they oversample Republicans. Also likely voters mean that they make a guesstimate as to what the turnout will be. In 2018, Rasmussen goofed badly as they had Republicans +1 in the generic ballot when Democrats won by around 9.

In addition, the exact composition of the turnout can vary. In Pennsylvania, the suburbs made up 52% of the vote and 57% in 2018. Trump won the vote 52-44 in 2016 and lost the suburban vote around 9 points. Women went 55-42 for Democrats in 2016 and 63-35 in 2018.

Age does not make one wise. Plenty of older people are scammed and Trump is a premier con man.

It is funny how different people see things so differently. I see Pelosi, Schumer, Harry Reid, Wasserman Shultz and so on the same as you see Trump.

The numbers show that most people agree with me on Trump. That is why they gave the Democrats the House.

No

That is not how it works

That is the way it has worked. Voters have been energized to vote against Trump since he won in 2016.

 

[Mike473]

It seems all these polls switches their polling

All but Rasmussen


Rasmussen seems to stay with likely voters and uses reality as their source

The others switches to likely right before the election when all their damage has been done with their polls on adults or registered voters

The 18-29 age groups reality turnout is 42%. This is the most liberal group and is the group that turns out the less than any other group

The age group where experience teaches that liberalism is a scam age group 50-64. Is the most for conservatives and their reality turnout is 71%

So it's clear the whole deep state including the media and educators are crooked as all get out

They have now gone way too far now and must face the maximum penalty for treason
Educators that now goes against science to fool the 18 yr old grad on abortion must face the max treason punishment

Wow how could this happen in America ??

Rasmussen has their own problems. They use robocalls to conduct their polls. Since robocalls are illegal, that means they can only call people with landlines. That means they oversample Republicans. Also likely voters mean that they make a guesstimate as to what the turnout will be. In 2018, Rasmussen goofed badly as they had Republicans +1 in the generic ballot when Democrats won by around 9.

In addition, the exact composition of the turnout can vary. In Pennsylvania, the suburbs made up 52% of the vote and 57% in 2018. Trump won the vote 52-44 in 2016 and lost the suburban vote around 9 points. Women went 55-42 for Democrats in 2016 and 63-35 in 2018.

Age does not make one wise. Plenty of older people are scammed and Trump is a premier con man.

It is funny how different people see things so differently. I see Pelosi, Schumer, Harry Reid, Wasserman Shultz and so on the same as you see Trump.

The numbers show that most people agree with me on Trump. That is why they gave the Democrats the House.

No

That is not how it works

That is the way it has worked. Voters have been energized to vote against Trump since he won in 2016.

I am sure the Republicans thought the same thing when they won over 60 seats in the house and 6 seats in the senate back in 2010. I am sure the Republicans felt equally good in 1994, after taking 50 seats in the house and 8 seats in the senate. Romney went on to lose in a landslide. Dole got absolutely throttled in 1996. Thing is, the Dems win last November was much weaker than the 2010 & 1994 Republican victories. The Dems even lost ground in the senate. That is a poor result compared to other recent waves in 2010 and 1994. I expect the same result in 2020 as 1996 and 2010. Trump (sitting President) wins relatively easy.

With Schiff and Pelosi walking back impeachment ahead of the Meuller report, I think the writing is on the wall.

 

[GreenAndBlue]

Rasmussen has their own problems. They use robocalls to conduct their polls. Since robocalls are illegal, that means they can only call people with landlines. That means they oversample Republicans. Also likely voters mean that they make a guesstimate as to what the turnout will be. In 2018, Rasmussen goofed badly as they had Republicans +1 in the generic ballot when Democrats won by around 9.

In addition, the exact composition of the turnout can vary. In Pennsylvania, the suburbs made up 52% of the vote and 57% in 2018. Trump won the vote 52-44 in 2016 and lost the suburban vote around 9 points. Women went 55-42 for Democrats in 2016 and 63-35 in 2018.

Age does not make one wise. Plenty of older people are scammed and Trump is a premier con man.

It is funny how different people see things so differently. I see Pelosi, Schumer, Harry Reid, Wasserman Shultz and so on the same as you see Trump.

The numbers show that most people agree with me on Trump. That is why they gave the Democrats the House.

No

That is not how it works

That is the way it has worked. Voters have been energized to vote against Trump since he won in 2016.

I am sure the Republicans thought the same thing when they won over 60 seats in the house and 6 seats in the senate back in 2010. I am sure the Republicans felt equally good in 1994, after taking 50 seats in the house and 8 seats in the senate. Romney went on to lose in a landslide. Dole got absolutely throttled in 1996. Thing is, the Dems win last November was much weaker than the 2010 & 1994 Republican victories. The Dems even lost ground in the senate. That is a poor result compared to other recent waves in 2010 and 1994. I expect the same result in 2020 as 1996 and 2010. Trump (sitting President) wins relatively easy.

With Schiff and Pelosi walking back impeachment ahead of the Meuller report, I think the writing is on the wall.

Exactly

The rats now will run and hide