What the national polls say about a 2020 Trump vs. Biden race.

[U2Edge]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

This below is the proof trump will win in 2020

The winner of Florida wins the election

Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

The Democrats don't need Florida to win elections. Its the Republicans that need Florida to even have a shot at winning a Presidential Election.

 

[U2Edge]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

Nice rationale', hope it works out for you. A Trump-Biden contest would be worth the price of admission!
More comments on your post:
1. The young progressives want a young candidate, so it looks like a generational battle, old folks vs young folks, 73% of dems want a "fresh face"
73% of Democrats Want ‘A Fresh Face’ As 2020 Nominee - Rasmussen Reports®
2. Not sure who the minority voters prefer? Can't find any polls?!
3. Sanders didn't "fail" against Clinton, the party (Brazille and Wasserman-Schultz) cheated Bernie out of the nomination, it all depends who the party tells the "super-delegates" to vote for. In 2020 to your point, that would be Joe Biden. So Bernie gets screwed again...

1. Young progressives usually don't decide who gets the nomination. Plus their a smaller group in the Democratic party and their divided among many different candidates with their support. This division aids Biden and Sanders.

2. Biden is preferred by minorities over Sanders. Sanders has always had a bit of a weakness with minorities.

3. Clinton won the nomination by any and every measure you look at. Sanders did well in the smaller and more rural states that did not have as many votes. Hillary won the big important states, and yes, she did well with the Super-delegates. With or without the Super Delegates, she was going to win.

4. But if Biden needs the Super Delegates to beat Sanders in 2020, so be it. Biden is the more conservative candidate than Sanders, closer to the center. He is also closer to being a Reagan/Bush/McCain Republican than Trump is. Biden is a centrist. Most Americans are centrist. Trump and Sanders are NOT centrist.

 

[U2Edge]

When has a candidate won the president race and still lost Florida ??

Trump has Florida locked up

And those Florida voters helps sway penn and Ohio voters

So trump
Is a lock to win 2020


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

1992 - Bill Clinton
1960 - John F Kennedy
1924 - Calvin Coolidge
1920 - Warren G. Harding
1908 - William Taft
1904 - Theodore Roosevelt
1900 - William McKinley
1896 - William McKinley
1888 - Benjamin Harrison
1880 - James Garfield
1868 - Ulysses Grant
1864 - Abraham Lincoln
1860 - Abraham Lincoln

Above are candidates that won the Presidential Election without winning Florida.

Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a little more than 1 percentage point. A small margin in the 3rd largest state. Since that time, many people from Puerto Rico have moved to Florida after the devastating hurricane that that killed nearly 3,000 people and Trumps poor response to it. These new Floridians from Puerto Rico won't be supporting Trump. They will probably tip the state toward whoever runs against Trump in 2020.

 

[U2Edge]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

You just go with that, it worked so well for you last time...

Everyone looks at the polls. Hillary won the popular vote in 2016. It was a FLUKE that she lost thanks to Trumps narrow win in three states and the electoral college. Lets see how that rare fluke works for you in 2020.

 

[U2Edge]

A little electoral college math. Lets take a look at the minimum number of states to get to 270 and win the election:

California
Texas
Florida
New York
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Ohio
Georgia
North Carolina
Michigan
New Jersey

That's right, just winning those 11 states allows you to become President with 270 electoral votes.

Lets take a closer look and see how these states usually vote:

BLUE WALL STATES:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Michigan
New Jersey

SWING STATES:
Florida
Ohio
North Carolina

RED STATES:
Texas
Georgia


In the latest poll in Texas, Biden is only 1 point behind Trump in a 2020 match up. Bill Clinton actually won Georgia in 1992, so it is not so solidly red either.

Republicans popularity in these 11 states has been slipping for years now. Picking Trump who is or is perceived to be racist and far from the center of America, makes that slip even worse. The top 11 states, the only 11 states you need to become President, and only two of them are considered to be solid red states. Plus the status of Texas as a solid Red state could fall in 2020.

If Republicans want to be competitive in future elections, they need to move back towards the center and away from the wild and divisive extremes of Trumps brand.

 

[GreenAndBlue]

When has a candidate won the president race and still lost Florida ??

Trump has Florida locked up

And those Florida voters helps sway penn and Ohio voters

So trump
Is a lock to win 2020


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

1992 - Bill Clinton
1960 - John F Kennedy
1924 - Calvin Coolidge
1920 - Warren G. Harding
1908 - William Taft
1904 - Theodore Roosevelt
1900 - William McKinley
1896 - William McKinley
1888 - Benjamin Harrison
1880 - James Garfield
1868 - Ulysses Grant
1864 - Abraham Lincoln
1860 - Abraham Lincoln

Above are candidates that won the Presidential Election without winning Florida.

Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a little more than 1 percentage point. A small margin in the 3rd largest state. Since that time, many people from Puerto Rico have moved to Florida after the devastating hurricane that that killed nearly 3,000 people and Trumps poor response to it. These new Floridians from Puerto Rico won't be supporting Trump. They will probably tip the state toward whoever runs against Trump in 2020.

The last one nearly 30 yrs ago

The last 30 yrs of voters a lot more similar than past 30 years ago

Predictions comes best when comparing apples to apples

You lost this correct understanding of this

 

[GreenAndBlue]

When has a candidate won the president race and still lost Florida ??

Trump has Florida locked up

And those Florida voters helps sway penn and Ohio voters

So trump
Is a lock to win 2020


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

1992 - Bill Clinton
1960 - John F Kennedy
1924 - Calvin Coolidge
1920 - Warren G. Harding
1908 - William Taft
1904 - Theodore Roosevelt
1900 - William McKinley
1896 - William McKinley
1888 - Benjamin Harrison
1880 - James Garfield
1868 - Ulysses Grant
1864 - Abraham Lincoln
1860 - Abraham Lincoln

Above are candidates that won the Presidential Election without winning Florida.

Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a little more than 1 percentage point. A small margin in the 3rd largest state. Since that time, many people from Puerto Rico have moved to Florida after the devastating hurricane that that killed nearly 3,000 people and Trumps poor response to it. These new Floridians from Puerto Rico won't be supporting Trump. They will probably tip the state toward whoever runs against Trump in 2020.

Trump stronger now in the 5 swing states because of the stampede of conservatives out of New York and California which makes those 5 swing states stronger for trump than in 2016

 

[kyzr]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

Nice rationale', hope it works out for you. A Trump-Biden contest would be worth the price of admission!
More comments on your post:
1. The young progressives want a young candidate, so it looks like a generational battle, old folks vs young folks, 73% of dems want a "fresh face"
73% of Democrats Want ‘A Fresh Face’ As 2020 Nominee - Rasmussen Reports®
2. Not sure who the minority voters prefer? Can't find any polls?!
3. Sanders didn't "fail" against Clinton, the party (Brazille and Wasserman-Schultz) cheated Bernie out of the nomination, it all depends who the party tells the "super-delegates" to vote for. In 2020 to your point, that would be Joe Biden. So Bernie gets screwed again...

1. Young progressives usually don't decide who gets the nomination. Plus their a smaller group in the Democratic party and their divided among many different candidates with their support. This division aids Biden and Sanders.

2. Biden is preferred by minorities over Sanders. Sanders has always had a bit of a weakness with minorities.

3. Clinton won the nomination by any and every measure you look at. Sanders did well in the smaller and more rural states that did not have as many votes. Hillary won the big important states, and yes, she did well with the Super-delegates. With or without the Super Delegates, she was going to win.

4. But if Biden needs the Super Delegates to beat Sanders in 2020, so be it. Biden is the more conservative candidate than Sanders, closer to the center. He is also closer to being a Reagan/Bush/McCain Republican than Trump is. Biden is a centrist. Most Americans are centrist. Trump and Sanders are NOT centrist.

Not much to disagree with in your post. The only major or potential flaw is that Biden can actually win the nomination. Here are a few comments to consider:
1. Will 2020 be the "changing of the guard"? Will the young progressives actually vote and beat the old guard? History says no, but we'll see who wins the delegates.
2. Thx, I wasn't sure who the minorities preferred. That's a big plus for Biden. Not sure if Kamala or Spartacus eats into that advantage?
3. Hillary won by cheating. The DNC did everything they could to help H and hurt Bernie.
4. The super-delegates may determine who win the nomination, but the dems wisely changed the rules to minimize their effect, we'll see. The convention should be a circus!!
Why the 2020 Democratic primary could turn into 'Lord of the Flies'

 

[GreenAndBlue]

A little electoral college math. Lets take a look at the minimum number of states to get to 270 and win the election:

California
Texas
Florida
New York
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Ohio
Georgia
North Carolina
Michigan
New Jersey

That's right, just winning those 11 states allows you to become President with 270 electoral votes.

Lets take a closer look and see how these states usually vote:

BLUE WALL STATES:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Michigan
New Jersey

SWING STATES:
Florida
Ohio
North Carolina

RED STATES:
Texas
Georgia


In the latest poll in Texas, Biden is only 1 point behind Trump in a 2020 match up. Bill Clinton actually won Georgia in 1992, so it is not so solidly red either.

Republicans popularity in these 11 states has been slipping for years now. Picking Trump who is or is perceived to be racist and far from the center of America, makes that slip even worse. The top 11 states, the only 11 states you need to become President, and only two of them are considered to be solid red states. Plus the status of Texas as a solid Red state could fall in 2020.

If Republicans want to be competitive in future elections, they need to move back towards the center and away from the wild and divisive extremes of Trumps brand.

Wrong


Pa and mich now swing states

Trump helped PA big time with the steel
Industry

Helped mich with the blue collar jobs

On top of that the conservatives fleeing ny and California has come there to make those states more conservative

Trump
Has boxed in the stupid crooks

 

[U2Edge]

A little electoral college math. Lets take a look at the minimum number of states to get to 270 and win the election:

California
Texas
Florida
New York
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Ohio
Georgia
North Carolina
Michigan
New Jersey

That's right, just winning those 11 states allows you to become President with 270 electoral votes.

Lets take a closer look and see how these states usually vote:

BLUE WALL STATES:
California
New York
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Michigan
New Jersey

SWING STATES:
Florida
Ohio
North Carolina

RED STATES:
Texas
Georgia


In the latest poll in Texas, Biden is only 1 point behind Trump in a 2020 match up. Bill Clinton actually won Georgia in 1992, so it is not so solidly red either.

Republicans popularity in these 11 states has been slipping for years now. Picking Trump who is or is perceived to be racist and far from the center of America, makes that slip even worse. The top 11 states, the only 11 states you need to become President, and only two of them are considered to be solid red states. Plus the status of Texas as a solid Red state could fall in 2020.

If Republicans want to be competitive in future elections, they need to move back towards the center and away from the wild and divisive extremes of Trumps brand.

Wrong


Pa and mich now swing states

Trump helped PA big time with the steel
Industry

Helped mich with the blue collar jobs

On top of that the conservatives fleeing ny and California has come there to make those states more conservative

Trump
Has boxed in the stupid crooks

1. One election result does not a turn a state into a swing state. The classification used above is based on multiple elections over several decades and how the states voted in those elections.

2. Trump won Pennsylvania by a tiny margin, only 44,292 votes. It was less than one percentage point. It was a VERY weak victory and the result of Democrats not spending enough time an money in the state and taking it for granted.

3. Trump won Michigan by an even smaller margin, only 10,704 votes. Current polls have all Democratic candidates beating Trump in Michigan, with Biden having a double digit or near double digit lead over Trump.

No evidence that Pennsylvania or Michigan are seeing an influx of voters who will vote only for the Republican candidate. Pennsylvania and Michigan rank near the bottom of all states in terms of population growth. Their populations are relatively stable with most growth coming from within.

We'll see what the first polls look like for a Trump vs Biden match up in Pennsylvania for 2020.

When Biden can compete with Trump in Texas, it means Trump does not have a chance in Pennsylvania. The latest poll for Texas has Trump beating Biden by only one point.

Then there is Trump's approval rating, the average approval rating after two years in Gallup is 40%, the lowest in history for a President. A President needs at least a 48% approval rating to even have a chance of being re-elected.

 

[U2Edge]

When has a candidate won the president race and still lost Florida ??

Trump has Florida locked up

And those Florida voters helps sway penn and Ohio voters

So trump
Is a lock to win 2020


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

1992 - Bill Clinton
1960 - John F Kennedy
1924 - Calvin Coolidge
1920 - Warren G. Harding
1908 - William Taft
1904 - Theodore Roosevelt
1900 - William McKinley
1896 - William McKinley
1888 - Benjamin Harrison
1880 - James Garfield
1868 - Ulysses Grant
1864 - Abraham Lincoln
1860 - Abraham Lincoln

Above are candidates that won the Presidential Election without winning Florida.

Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a little more than 1 percentage point. A small margin in the 3rd largest state. Since that time, many people from Puerto Rico have moved to Florida after the devastating hurricane that that killed nearly 3,000 people and Trumps poor response to it. These new Floridians from Puerto Rico won't be supporting Trump. They will probably tip the state toward whoever runs against Trump in 2020.

The last one nearly 30 yrs ago

The last 30 yrs of voters a lot more similar than past 30 years ago

Predictions comes best when comparing apples to apples

You lost this correct understanding of this

Your question made the assumption that all candidates had to win Florida in order to become President.
That's totally false and I showed you why.

What's more, the 2016 election came down to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Had Trump not been able to slip by with his tiny victories in those states, the Hillary Clinton would be President. Florida wouldn't have mattered.

 

[U2Edge]

When has a candidate won the president race and still lost Florida ??

Trump has Florida locked up

And those Florida voters helps sway penn and Ohio voters

So trump
Is a lock to win 2020


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

1992 - Bill Clinton
1960 - John F Kennedy
1924 - Calvin Coolidge
1920 - Warren G. Harding
1908 - William Taft
1904 - Theodore Roosevelt
1900 - William McKinley
1896 - William McKinley
1888 - Benjamin Harrison
1880 - James Garfield
1868 - Ulysses Grant
1864 - Abraham Lincoln
1860 - Abraham Lincoln

Above are candidates that won the Presidential Election without winning Florida.

Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a little more than 1 percentage point. A small margin in the 3rd largest state. Since that time, many people from Puerto Rico have moved to Florida after the devastating hurricane that that killed nearly 3,000 people and Trumps poor response to it. These new Floridians from Puerto Rico won't be supporting Trump. They will probably tip the state toward whoever runs against Trump in 2020.

Trump stronger now in the 5 swing states because of the stampede of conservatives out of New York and California which makes those 5 swing states stronger for trump than in 2016

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

 

[Thinker101]

When has a candidate won the president race and still lost Florida ??

Trump has Florida locked up

And those Florida voters helps sway penn and Ohio voters

So trump
Is a lock to win 2020


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

1992 - Bill Clinton
1960 - John F Kennedy
1924 - Calvin Coolidge
1920 - Warren G. Harding
1908 - William Taft
1904 - Theodore Roosevelt
1900 - William McKinley
1896 - William McKinley
1888 - Benjamin Harrison
1880 - James Garfield
1868 - Ulysses Grant
1864 - Abraham Lincoln
1860 - Abraham Lincoln

Above are candidates that won the Presidential Election without winning Florida.

Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a little more than 1 percentage point. A small margin in the 3rd largest state. Since that time, many people from Puerto Rico have moved to Florida after the devastating hurricane that that killed nearly 3,000 people and Trumps poor response to it. These new Floridians from Puerto Rico won't be supporting Trump. They will probably tip the state toward whoever runs against Trump in 2020.

Trump stronger now in the 5 swing states because of the stampede of conservatives out of New York and California which makes those 5 swing states stronger for trump than in 2016

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

More like the polls show Democrats haven't learned a damn thing in the last 3 years.

 

[GreenAndBlue]

When has a candidate won the president race and still lost Florida ??

Trump has Florida locked up

And those Florida voters helps sway penn and Ohio voters

So trump
Is a lock to win 2020


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

1992 - Bill Clinton
1960 - John F Kennedy
1924 - Calvin Coolidge
1920 - Warren G. Harding
1908 - William Taft
1904 - Theodore Roosevelt
1900 - William McKinley
1896 - William McKinley
1888 - Benjamin Harrison
1880 - James Garfield
1868 - Ulysses Grant
1864 - Abraham Lincoln
1860 - Abraham Lincoln

Above are candidates that won the Presidential Election without winning Florida.

Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a little more than 1 percentage point. A small margin in the 3rd largest state. Since that time, many people from Puerto Rico have moved to Florida after the devastating hurricane that that killed nearly 3,000 people and Trumps poor response to it. These new Floridians from Puerto Rico won't be supporting Trump. They will probably tip the state toward whoever runs against Trump in 2020.

Trump stronger now in the 5 swing states because of the stampede of conservatives out of New York and California which makes those 5 swing states stronger for trump than in 2016

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

Florida mid terms are actual votes that prove this pattern of the 5 swing states going more for trump

 

[U2Edge]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

Nice rationale', hope it works out for you. A Trump-Biden contest would be worth the price of admission!
More comments on your post:
1. The young progressives want a young candidate, so it looks like a generational battle, old folks vs young folks, 73% of dems want a "fresh face"
73% of Democrats Want ‘A Fresh Face’ As 2020 Nominee - Rasmussen Reports®
2. Not sure who the minority voters prefer? Can't find any polls?!
3. Sanders didn't "fail" against Clinton, the party (Brazille and Wasserman-Schultz) cheated Bernie out of the nomination, it all depends who the party tells the "super-delegates" to vote for. In 2020 to your point, that would be Joe Biden. So Bernie gets screwed again...

1. Young progressives usually don't decide who gets the nomination. Plus their a smaller group in the Democratic party and their divided among many different candidates with their support. This division aids Biden and Sanders.

2. Biden is preferred by minorities over Sanders. Sanders has always had a bit of a weakness with minorities.

3. Clinton won the nomination by any and every measure you look at. Sanders did well in the smaller and more rural states that did not have as many votes. Hillary won the big important states, and yes, she did well with the Super-delegates. With or without the Super Delegates, she was going to win.

4. But if Biden needs the Super Delegates to beat Sanders in 2020, so be it. Biden is the more conservative candidate than Sanders, closer to the center. He is also closer to being a Reagan/Bush/McCain Republican than Trump is. Biden is a centrist. Most Americans are centrist. Trump and Sanders are NOT centrist.

Not much to disagree with in your post. The only major or potential flaw is that Biden can actually win the nomination. Here are a few comments to consider:
1. Will 2020 be the "changing of the guard"? Will the young progressives actually vote and beat the old guard? History says no, but we'll see who wins the delegates.
2. Thx, I wasn't sure who the minorities preferred. That's a big plus for Biden. Not sure if Kamala or Spartacus eats into that advantage?
3. Hillary won by cheating. The DNC did everything they could to help H and hurt Bernie.
4. The super-delegates may determine who win the nomination, but the dems wisely changed the rules to minimize their effect, we'll see. The convention should be a circus!!
Why the 2020 Democratic primary could turn into 'Lord of the Flies'

If Biden were to lose the nomination, it would only be to Sanders. There are many Republicans like myself who will be registering as Democrats for 2020 so we can vote in Democratic primary's. That will change the party making the voting base more conservative.

Sanders weakness is that there are two to three times as many candidates for the nomination as there was in 2016. These new candidates tap into Sanders base of support from 2016. It weakens Sanders which means in strengthens Biden.

Time is running out on a break out candidate like O'Rourke to put up some decent polling numbers.

Essentially, Sanders and the other left leaning candidates split the progressive vote in the Democratic party allowing Biden to ride toward an easy win with a small plurality of the vote. Kind of like what Trump did in 2016 to the Republican Party. The anti-Trump vote in the Republican party was divided among many candidates allowing Trump to slip into the nomination with small plurality of the vote.

 

[U2Edge]

When has a candidate won the president race and still lost Florida ??

Trump has Florida locked up

And those Florida voters helps sway penn and Ohio voters

So trump
Is a lock to win 2020


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

1992 - Bill Clinton
1960 - John F Kennedy
1924 - Calvin Coolidge
1920 - Warren G. Harding
1908 - William Taft
1904 - Theodore Roosevelt
1900 - William McKinley
1896 - William McKinley
1888 - Benjamin Harrison
1880 - James Garfield
1868 - Ulysses Grant
1864 - Abraham Lincoln
1860 - Abraham Lincoln

Above are candidates that won the Presidential Election without winning Florida.

Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a little more than 1 percentage point. A small margin in the 3rd largest state. Since that time, many people from Puerto Rico have moved to Florida after the devastating hurricane that that killed nearly 3,000 people and Trumps poor response to it. These new Floridians from Puerto Rico won't be supporting Trump. They will probably tip the state toward whoever runs against Trump in 2020.

Trump stronger now in the 5 swing states because of the stampede of conservatives out of New York and California which makes those 5 swing states stronger for trump than in 2016

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

More like the polls show Democrats haven't learned a damn thing in the last 3 years.

Republicans, Democrats, the media, academics and researchers, all use polling to try to predict where the country is going and how to set up campaign strategy and where to send money. All of this polling data right now, shows that Trump is in trouble.

 

[GreenAndBlue]

The dems will never nominate Biden. It would alienate too many of their base.

After the CA primary we'll see who is left standing when the smoke clears.

Then with Biden gone, Trump wins in a landslide...

And the Republicans would never nominate Trump. Not that Biden needs Trumps magic situation from 2016, but just as the wide number of new candidates benefited Trump, so does the wide number of new candidates benefit Biden and to a lesser degree Sanders. It allows Biden and Sanders to win Primaries around the country by smaller margins and pick up large numbers of votes for the eventual nomination. The newbies can't get traction or money or what they do get is divided among so many people it amounts to nothing meaningful. Harris won't be able to win even her own state and she is in third place. Far behind in third place. If O'Rourke could go viral somehow he is really the only one that could challenge Sanders and Biden.

At the end of the day, Biden is more electable than Sanders because Biden is more of a centrist than Sanders. The most important thing to Democratic voters, as shown in polls, in 2020 is ELECTABILITY and NOT IDEOLOGY.

Finally, most Democrats simply want to get rid of Trump. With Biden as the nominee, there is simply no other option. Sitting at home and not voting is a vote for Trump. Voting third party is essentially a vote for Trump. If they want Trump gone, they will have to vote for the nominee, and right now that looks like its going to be Biden. The only one with the name, following, and strength to possibly prevent Biden from getting the nomination is Sanders.

But Sanders failed against Clinton and will likely fail against Biden for the same reasons. The closer you are to the center, the more electable you are in the race against Trump. Biden is closer to the center than Sanders.

Nice rationale', hope it works out for you. A Trump-Biden contest would be worth the price of admission!
More comments on your post:
1. The young progressives want a young candidate, so it looks like a generational battle, old folks vs young folks, 73% of dems want a "fresh face"
73% of Democrats Want ‘A Fresh Face’ As 2020 Nominee - Rasmussen Reports®
2. Not sure who the minority voters prefer? Can't find any polls?!
3. Sanders didn't "fail" against Clinton, the party (Brazille and Wasserman-Schultz) cheated Bernie out of the nomination, it all depends who the party tells the "super-delegates" to vote for. In 2020 to your point, that would be Joe Biden. So Bernie gets screwed again...

1. Young progressives usually don't decide who gets the nomination. Plus their a smaller group in the Democratic party and their divided among many different candidates with their support. This division aids Biden and Sanders.

2. Biden is preferred by minorities over Sanders. Sanders has always had a bit of a weakness with minorities.

3. Clinton won the nomination by any and every measure you look at. Sanders did well in the smaller and more rural states that did not have as many votes. Hillary won the big important states, and yes, she did well with the Super-delegates. With or without the Super Delegates, she was going to win.

4. But if Biden needs the Super Delegates to beat Sanders in 2020, so be it. Biden is the more conservative candidate than Sanders, closer to the center. He is also closer to being a Reagan/Bush/McCain Republican than Trump is. Biden is a centrist. Most Americans are centrist. Trump and Sanders are NOT centrist.

Not much to disagree with in your post. The only major or potential flaw is that Biden can actually win the nomination. Here are a few comments to consider:
1. Will 2020 be the "changing of the guard"? Will the young progressives actually vote and beat the old guard? History says no, but we'll see who wins the delegates.
2. Thx, I wasn't sure who the minorities preferred. That's a big plus for Biden. Not sure if Kamala or Spartacus eats into that advantage?
3. Hillary won by cheating. The DNC did everything they could to help H and hurt Bernie.
4. The super-delegates may determine who win the nomination, but the dems wisely changed the rules to minimize their effect, we'll see. The convention should be a circus!!
Why the 2020 Democratic primary could turn into 'Lord of the Flies'

If Biden were to lose the nomination, it would only be to Sanders. There are many Republicans like myself who will be registering as Democrats for 2020 so we can vote in Democratic primary's. That will change the party making the voting base more conservative.

Sanders weakness is that there are two to three times as many candidates for the nomination as there was in 2016. These new candidates tap into Sanders base of support from 2016. It weakens Sanders which means in strengthens Biden.

Time is running out on a break out candidate like O'Rourke to put up some decent polling numbers.

Essentially, Sanders and the other left leaning candidates split the progressive vote in the Democratic party allowing Biden to ride toward an easy win with a small plurality of the vote. Kind of like what Trump did in 2016 to the Republican Party. The anti-Trump vote in the Republican party was divided among many candidates allowing Trump to slip into the nomination with small plurality of the vote.

Only the 5 swing states matter

And trump has got them
Locked up and boxed in
With his politicies that benefits them

 

[EvilCat Breath]

Democrats are relying on population replacement to secure their victory. With that and a bit of fraud they already have a lock on the election.

 

[GreenAndBlue]

Democrats are relying on population replacement to secure their victory. With that and a bit of fraud they already have a lock on the election.

The ones fleeing out of New York and California are conservatives

They will go to the 5 swing states that trump won and increase his wins

 

[U2Edge]

When has a candidate won the president race and still lost Florida ??

Trump has Florida locked up

And those Florida voters helps sway penn and Ohio voters

So trump
Is a lock to win 2020


Pro-Trump DeSantis Has Highest Approval Of Any Florida Governor In A Decade

1992 - Bill Clinton
1960 - John F Kennedy
1924 - Calvin Coolidge
1920 - Warren G. Harding
1908 - William Taft
1904 - Theodore Roosevelt
1900 - William McKinley
1896 - William McKinley
1888 - Benjamin Harrison
1880 - James Garfield
1868 - Ulysses Grant
1864 - Abraham Lincoln
1860 - Abraham Lincoln

Above are candidates that won the Presidential Election without winning Florida.

Trump only won Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes, a little more than 1 percentage point. A small margin in the 3rd largest state. Since that time, many people from Puerto Rico have moved to Florida after the devastating hurricane that that killed nearly 3,000 people and Trumps poor response to it. These new Floridians from Puerto Rico won't be supporting Trump. They will probably tip the state toward whoever runs against Trump in 2020.

Trump stronger now in the 5 swing states because of the stampede of conservatives out of New York and California which makes those 5 swing states stronger for trump than in 2016

You and others have not shown any recent polling to indicate any of this. All of the recent polling shows Trump is in trouble against any of the Democratic candidates, nationally and in key states. The Polling shows that Biden is the biggest threat to Trump.

Florida mid terms are actual votes that prove this pattern of the 5 swing states going more for trump

Florida mid-terms only say one thing about one state, FLORIDA! The overall result of the 2018 mid-terms was how weak Trump was nationally, especially in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Republicans got beat by double digit margins in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania when the total votes were counted for all the Representatives.