What the national polls say about a 2020 Trump vs. Biden race.

[U2Edge]

1. Young progressives usually don't decide who gets the nomination. Plus their a smaller group in the Democratic party and their divided among many different candidates with their support. This division aids Biden and Sanders.

2. Biden is preferred by minorities over Sanders. Sanders has always had a bit of a weakness with minorities.

3. Clinton won the nomination by any and every measure you look at. Sanders did well in the smaller and more rural states that did not have as many votes. Hillary won the big important states, and yes, she did well with the Super-delegates. With or without the Super Delegates, she was going to win.

4. But if Biden needs the Super Delegates to beat Sanders in 2020, so be it. Biden is the more conservative candidate than Sanders, closer to the center. He is also closer to being a Reagan/Bush/McCain Republican than Trump is. Biden is a centrist. Most Americans are centrist. Trump and Sanders are NOT centrist.

Not much to disagree with in your post. The only major or potential flaw is that Biden can actually win the nomination. Here are a few comments to consider:
1. Will 2020 be the "changing of the guard"? Will the young progressives actually vote and beat the old guard? History says no, but we'll see who wins the delegates.
2. Thx, I wasn't sure who the minorities preferred. That's a big plus for Biden. Not sure if Kamala or Spartacus eats into that advantage?
3. Hillary won by cheating. The DNC did everything they could to help H and hurt Bernie.
4. The super-delegates may determine who win the nomination, but the dems wisely changed the rules to minimize their effect, we'll see. The convention should be a circus!!
Why the 2020 Democratic primary could turn into 'Lord of the Flies'

If Biden were to lose the nomination, it would only be to Sanders. There are many Republicans like myself who will be registering as Democrats for 2020 so we can vote in Democratic primary's. That will change the party making the voting base more conservative.

Sanders weakness is that there are two to three times as many candidates for the nomination as there was in 2016. These new candidates tap into Sanders base of support from 2016. It weakens Sanders which means in strengthens Biden.

Time is running out on a break out candidate like O'Rourke to put up some decent polling numbers.

Essentially, Sanders and the other left leaning candidates split the progressive vote in the Democratic party allowing Biden to ride toward an easy win with a small plurality of the vote. Kind of like what Trump did in 2016 to the Republican Party. The anti-Trump vote in the Republican party was divided among many candidates allowing Trump to slip into the nomination with small plurality of the vote.

1. Hate to call bullshit that you are a republican, but there are only two flavors, "never-Trumpers" and Trumpers. You don't seem to fit in either of those boxes. Your promoting the democrats with their stupid policy positions indicates that you are in-fact a democrat.

2. There are not "many" republicans switching parties to support Biden. There aren't any, unless you have a secret/imaginary society?

3. Time isn't running out for Beto, the primaries won't even start for another year or more?!

4. Have you seriously looked at Biden's age? He would be 78 when sworn in!! Reagan was "only" 69 when he was sworn in. I'm fairly certain that the dem majority will not be voting for Joe Biden, even if he manages to complete the grueling primary schedule.

Ronald Reagan - Wikipedia
"First term

Ronald Reagan was 69 years old when he sworn into office for his first term on January 20, 1981. In his inaugural address, he addressed the country's economic malaise, arguing: "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem."

1. How could I be a democrat when I have never been registered as anything but a Republican. I've voted straight Republican ticket all my life until the 2016 election. The only Democrat I voted for in 2016 was Hillary Clinton, the rest of the votes were for Republicans. It is true in 2018 that I voted straight Democrat. Yes, I am a never Trumper. I'm a Bush/McCain Republican which is essentially the opposite of a Trump Republican.

2. There will be plenty of Republicans switching party's temporarily to help Biden win in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. More than enough to destroy Trumps tiny margins of victory in those states from 2016.

3. The first Primaries are in February 2020, soon to be only 10 months away.

4. Have you looked at Trump's age? 74 and a half on January 20, 2021. Who is in better shape, Biden or Trump? Who eats better, exercises, gets more sleep? BIDEN wins in all three. Who has the better BODY MASS INDEX? Once again, Biden wins.
Who is Biden's only real competitor in the Democratic Party? SANDERS. SANDERS is a year older than Biden.
Sorry, but point #4 is your biggest fail!

1. Wow, I could never vote for H, no matter what. I can't imagine your illogical thinking?! Just look at the court nominations. Trump saved the US from the lib courts as well as saved the military. You must be a globalist like Bill Kristol? That makes no sense to me. I'm a middle class guy who likes work, especially the manufacturing sector. I could never vote for a never-Trumper, so we'll see what happens in 2024 and 2028. I'd never vote democrat, never.

2. Got a link for the claim that there will be plenty of republicans switching parties for Biden? No one I know would consider that. The dems are simply crazy Joe Biden or not.

4. I bet that Trump outlasts Biden. Sanders is ancient too, hope he makes it thru the primaries. They are simply too old to be president. It would be a death watch like for RBG.

1. National Security, Defense Policy and Foreign Policy are more important than court nominations. Hillary Clinton was fierce opponent of Russia and Putin. She believed in NATO and supported increasing US troop strength in Europe to guard against recent Russian aggression in Europe. Trump wanted to pull the United States out of NATO. Did not really care about Russia's aggression in Europe and even considered recognizing Crimea as a part of Russia. Then there is all the siding of Trump with Putin and Russian intelligence. Don't have time to get into all that here but compared to Hillary Clinton, Trump behaves like a Traitor and agent of the Russian Federation. You know that Hillary Clinton was the right vote when Putin was so militantly against her becoming President that he tried to hack the U.S. election to prevent her from being elected.

Finally, I'm not so ideologically blinded to claim I could never vote for a particular political party. I vote for whoever has the best policies and candidates at the current time. My allegiance is to the United States, not a specific political party. Its sad to see so many Republicans act differently where their allegiance is to political party rather than country.

2. Again, Blind ideology saying that no Republican could vote for a Democrat. Joe Biden is far closer to Reagan, Bush, and McCain than Trump. That's why every Republican should be voting for Biden in 2020 or at least considering it.

4. Trump is only 3.5 years younger than Biden. Yet, you act like the difference between them is 30 years. I'm sure if any scientist were to study Trump and Biden's true medical history and current health, they would actually discover that Biden's REAL age is probably several years younger than Trump and that his life expectancy is higher than Trump's. IF YOU THINK BIDEN IS TOO OLD TO BE PRESIDENT THAN THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL YOU COULD JUSTIFY VOTING OR SUPPORTING TRUMP.

 

[U2Edge]

Hey, we got some new polling data on the BIDEN VS TRUMP match up for 2020:

Both polls are done by the polling company EMERSON.

In Wisconsin(poll released March 18):

BIDEN: 54%

TRUMP: 46%


General Election National Poll(poll released March 20):

BIDEN: 55%

TRUMP: 45%

I notice you didn't include links to your polls. Found it...
Poll: Trump trails Biden, Sanders, Warren in Wisconsin match-ups

No dem is going to beat Trump in 2020, but it will be fun watching the election process.

Odds Suggest that Sanders, Harris Are Trump’s Biggest Threats
Donald Trump +200
Kamala Harris +600
Bernie Sanders +600
Joe Biden +700
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Amy Klobuchar +2500
Elizabeth Warren +2500

Vegas does not decide elections.

Once again, you fail to find ANY polling data that shows Trump winning in 2020, either in the national election or battleground states. Even Trump and the Republicans will be using polling data to plan their strategy. They sure as hell won't going by betting odds in Vegas.

 

[U2Edge]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

Thank you. You have already made yourself sound stupid with your Universal Healthcare debacle thread and now this. Biden vs. Trump have not even had one debate yet. Hold your horses.

No debacle at all in the Universal Health Care thread. Only your failure to understand simple facts. Yes, Europeans live longer than Americans, pay less for their healthcare, and everyone is covered. Three indisputable facts. 45 of the top 50 developed countries provide healthcare for all their citizens, and they all do it for LESS than America does. Given that life is a right, so is healthcare. Universal healthcare is coming to the United States rather you like it or not. There is growing support for it every day.

The polls between Biden and Trump reflect the fact that Trump after over 2 years in office only has an average approval rating of 40% in the Gallup poll. That is the worst average of any President in history. You don't win re-election when you average 40% in approval. The most recent Gallup poll has Trump at 39% approval, 57% disapproval.

 

[kyzr]

Hey, we got some new polling data on the BIDEN VS TRUMP match up for 2020:

Both polls are done by the polling company EMERSON.

In Wisconsin(poll released March 18):

BIDEN: 54%

TRUMP: 46%


General Election National Poll(poll released March 20):

BIDEN: 55%

TRUMP: 45%

I notice you didn't include links to your polls. Found it...
Poll: Trump trails Biden, Sanders, Warren in Wisconsin match-ups

No dem is going to beat Trump in 2020, but it will be fun watching the election process.

Odds Suggest that Sanders, Harris Are Trump’s Biggest Threats
Donald Trump +200
Kamala Harris +600
Bernie Sanders +600
Joe Biden +700
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Amy Klobuchar +2500
Elizabeth Warren +2500

Vegas does not decide elections.

Once again, you fail to find ANY polling data that shows Trump winning in 2020, either in the national election or battleground states. Even Trump and the Republicans will be using polling data to plan their strategy. They sure as hell won't going by betting odds in Vegas.

If I learned anything from 2016 its that polls are total bullshit. Hillary had a 95% probability of winning, and she lost. So I'm not a fan of polls, besides you guys all said that the polls predict the "popular vote" not the EC, so they are generally worthless. Here is a discussion from a polling site, they basically say that both Trump and the dems will be unpopular, so its a 50-50 pick. I believe that. Neither side will have a major advantage, and it may end up like 2016...

What Do We Know About Trump’s Re-election Chances So Far?
"Right now, Trump looks like an even bet for re-election. But the status quo is probably his best-case scenario."

 

[U2Edge]

In the latest polling by CNN(released March 19), this is where the race for the Democratic nomination is:

Biden: 28%

Sanders: 20%

Harris: 12%

O'Rourke: 11%

Warren: 6%

Booker: 3%

Klobuchar: 3%

Buttigieg: 1%

Hickenlooper: 1%

Castro: 1%

Inslee: 1%

Gillibrand: 1%

Biden and Sanders still taking up most of the oxygen in the room. The only candidate that has a possible chance of challenging those two is O'Rourke. O'Rourke has a long way to go.

 

[U2Edge]

Hey, we got some new polling data on the BIDEN VS TRUMP match up for 2020:

Both polls are done by the polling company EMERSON.

In Wisconsin(poll released March 18):

BIDEN: 54%

TRUMP: 46%


General Election National Poll(poll released March 20):

BIDEN: 55%

TRUMP: 45%

I notice you didn't include links to your polls. Found it...
Poll: Trump trails Biden, Sanders, Warren in Wisconsin match-ups

No dem is going to beat Trump in 2020, but it will be fun watching the election process.

Odds Suggest that Sanders, Harris Are Trump’s Biggest Threats
Donald Trump +200
Kamala Harris +600
Bernie Sanders +600
Joe Biden +700
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Amy Klobuchar +2500
Elizabeth Warren +2500

Vegas does not decide elections.

Once again, you fail to find ANY polling data that shows Trump winning in 2020, either in the national election or battleground states. Even Trump and the Republicans will be using polling data to plan their strategy. They sure as hell won't going by betting odds in Vegas.

If I learned anything from 2016 its that polls are total bullshit. Hillary had a 95% probability of winning, and she lost. So I'm not a fan of polls, besides you guys all said that the polls predict the "popular vote" not the EC, so they are generally worthless. Here is a discussion from a polling site, they basically say that both Trump and the dems will be unpopular, so its a 50-50 pick. I believe that. Neither side will have a major advantage, and it may end up like 2016...

What Do We Know About Trump’s Re-election Chances So Far?
"Right now, Trump looks like an even bet for re-election. But the status quo is probably his best-case scenario."

Sorry but polls matter regardless of your thoughts on 2016. 2016, regardless of what you think happened, does not alone define the history of polling. You and Trump can continue to ride 2016 all you want to and talk about Hillary Clinton, but it won't get you elected President in 2020.

Still waiting for some polling data on Trump beating Biden in the popular vote nationally, or in a battle ground state. Still nothing showing that.

Oh and the popular vote does matter because over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is the winner of the electoral college.

NO PRESIDENT HAS EVER BEEN RE-ELECTED WITHOUT WINNING THE POPULAR VOTE!

Trump will have to get his approval rating up from around 40% to at least 48% to be an EVEN bet for re-election. His peak so far is 45%. His low is 35%. His average is 40%. His current is 39%.

 

[deanrd]

GOP Donors Demand Trump Magically Become a Normal Human by 2020

In 2016, the mogul’s campaign proved to be “the little garbage fire that could.” But the right’s entitled plutocrats should make peace with the fact that their party’s fate rests in the hands of an incompetent con man. They might prefer to invest in a more professional enterprise. But, as Trump has incessantly reminded them in recent days, the choice before GOP megadonors is buffoonish barbarism or “democratic socialism” (a.k.a. a slightly more progressive tax code). And they know damn well which one they prefer.

 

[kyzr]

Hey, we got some new polling data on the BIDEN VS TRUMP match up for 2020:

Both polls are done by the polling company EMERSON.

In Wisconsin(poll released March 18):

BIDEN: 54%

TRUMP: 46%


General Election National Poll(poll released March 20):

BIDEN: 55%

TRUMP: 45%

I notice you didn't include links to your polls. Found it...
Poll: Trump trails Biden, Sanders, Warren in Wisconsin match-ups

No dem is going to beat Trump in 2020, but it will be fun watching the election process.

Odds Suggest that Sanders, Harris Are Trump’s Biggest Threats
Donald Trump +200
Kamala Harris +600
Bernie Sanders +600
Joe Biden +700
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Amy Klobuchar +2500
Elizabeth Warren +2500

Vegas does not decide elections.

Once again, you fail to find ANY polling data that shows Trump winning in 2020, either in the national election or battleground states. Even Trump and the Republicans will be using polling data to plan their strategy. They sure as hell won't going by betting odds in Vegas.

If I learned anything from 2016 its that polls are total bullshit. Hillary had a 95% probability of winning, and she lost. So I'm not a fan of polls, besides you guys all said that the polls predict the "popular vote" not the EC, so they are generally worthless. Here is a discussion from a polling site, they basically say that both Trump and the dems will be unpopular, so its a 50-50 pick. I believe that. Neither side will have a major advantage, and it may end up like 2016...

What Do We Know About Trump’s Re-election Chances So Far?
"Right now, Trump looks like an even bet for re-election. But the status quo is probably his best-case scenario."

Sorry but polls matter regardless of your thoughts on 2016. 2016, regardless of what you think happened, does not alone define the history of polling. You and Trump can continue to ride 2016 all you want to and talk about Hillary Clinton, but it won't get you elected President in 2020.

Still waiting for some polling data on Trump beating Biden in the popular vote nationally, or in a battle ground state. Still nothing showing that.

Oh and the popular vote does matter because over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is the winner of the electoral college.

NO PRESIDENT HAS EVER BEEN RE-ELECTED WITHOUT WINNING THE POPULAR VOTE!

Trump will have to get his approval rating up from around 40% to at least 48% to be an EVEN bet for re-election. His peak so far is 45%. His low is 35%. His average is 40%. His current is 39%.

OK, good post. Its still very early in the process, and we'll see what happens when the voting starts. IMHO Biden is too old, especially for the young progressives. Can the older dems put him over the top? We'll see. I'm not worried about Trump's chances. Unless the economy tanks like for BO in 2008, but that seems unlikely. As 538 says, it looks like a 50-50 race so far. Both parties are unpopular.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

Thank you. You have already made yourself sound stupid with your Universal Healthcare debacle thread and now this. Biden vs. Trump have not even had one debate yet. Hold your horses.

No debacle at all in the Universal Health Care thread. Only your failure to understand simple facts. Yes, Europeans live longer than Americans, pay less for their healthcare, and everyone is covered. Three indisputable facts. 45 of the top 50 developed countries provide healthcare for all their citizens, and they all do it for LESS than America does. Given that life is a right, so is healthcare. Universal healthcare is coming to the United States rather you like it or not. There is growing support for it every day.

The polls between Biden and Trump reflect the fact that Trump after over 2 years in office only has an average approval rating of 40% in the Gallup poll. That is the worst average of any President in history. You don't win re-election when you average 40% in approval. The most recent Gallup poll has Trump at 39% approval, 57% disapproval.

You’re boring. They lived longer even before UH. They are just healthier people. We are fat. We ll see. Right? His term has yet to finish and they have yet to debate one time. You’re jumping the gun with false facts once again.

 

[skews13]

Yup! Just like Hillarys historic landslide victory that was also predicted by the SAME POLLS.



Hahahaha

Not like it at all. You won’t have Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania this time around.

 

[deanrd]

Scott walker was the republican front runner last time before the primaries
Not only didn’t he become the nominee for the GOP, but he was thrown out of office in the mid terms because of the absolute horrible deal Republicans made with Foxconn.
When it becomes the choice between Republicans helping the vast majority of Americans or a few, Republicans always help the few. Always.

 

[bendog]

I don't think it'll be Biden

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Repeat ad infinitum:

Creepy Joe Biden throws live puppies into rush hour traffic!

Creepy Joe Biden is a secret Satan worshiper!

Creepy Joe Biden fondles children!

Creepy Joe Biden is gay!

Creepy Joe Biden is the proprietor of Comet Pizza!

"Joe Biden" is Hebrew for "turtle fucker"!

Creepy Joe Biden killed Kennedy!

Creepy Joe Biden plagiarized Michelle Obama's speech!

Creepy Joe Biden slept with Stormy Daniels and paid her for her silence!

Creepy Joe Biden tried to get a Biden Tower built in Moscow!

Creepy Joe Biden bragged about grabbing pussies!

Okay.... Creepy Joe is mighty handy with young girls.
Just like repeating something over and over doesn't make it true, repeatedly ignoring something doesn't make it false.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Polls....

Just like they said even within hours of Trump winning - no chance.

 

[MisterBeale]

Biden would make a better Republican candidate than a Democrat. He is going to get his ass handed to him. He is out of touch with today progressives, seriously.

Old and Senile?


Best thing they can do, is to just not let him open his mouth. He is his own worst enemy.


Biden: Rich are as patriotic as the poor
Biden: Rich are as patriotic as the poor

“Doug understands about tax fairness,” Biden told the crowd. “Guys, the wealthy are as patriotic as the poor. I know Bernie doesn’t like me saying that, but they are.”

 

[MisterBeale]

 

[Fang]

So Liberals are going to vote for an even older white guy than we already have, and one who has been part of the establishment since the 1800's? lol

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Yup! Just like Hillarys historic landslide victory that was also predicted by the SAME POLLS.



Hahahaha

Not like it at all. You won’t have Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania this time around.

Bold but stupid statement.

There is no way to tell who will win those states this far out

 

[basquebromance]

he's Biden his time

 

[U2Edge]

Hey, we got some new polling data on the BIDEN VS TRUMP match up for 2020:

Both polls are done by the polling company EMERSON.

In Wisconsin(poll released March 18):

BIDEN: 54%

TRUMP: 46%


General Election National Poll(poll released March 20):

BIDEN: 55%

TRUMP: 45%

I notice you didn't include links to your polls. Found it...
Poll: Trump trails Biden, Sanders, Warren in Wisconsin match-ups

No dem is going to beat Trump in 2020, but it will be fun watching the election process.

Odds Suggest that Sanders, Harris Are Trump’s Biggest Threats
Donald Trump +200
Kamala Harris +600
Bernie Sanders +600
Joe Biden +700
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Amy Klobuchar +2500
Elizabeth Warren +2500

Vegas does not decide elections.

Once again, you fail to find ANY polling data that shows Trump winning in 2020, either in the national election or battleground states. Even Trump and the Republicans will be using polling data to plan their strategy. They sure as hell won't going by betting odds in Vegas.

If I learned anything from 2016 its that polls are total bullshit. Hillary had a 95% probability of winning, and she lost. So I'm not a fan of polls, besides you guys all said that the polls predict the "popular vote" not the EC, so they are generally worthless. Here is a discussion from a polling site, they basically say that both Trump and the dems will be unpopular, so its a 50-50 pick. I believe that. Neither side will have a major advantage, and it may end up like 2016...

What Do We Know About Trump’s Re-election Chances So Far?
"Right now, Trump looks like an even bet for re-election. But the status quo is probably his best-case scenario."

Sorry but polls matter regardless of your thoughts on 2016. 2016, regardless of what you think happened, does not alone define the history of polling. You and Trump can continue to ride 2016 all you want to and talk about Hillary Clinton, but it won't get you elected President in 2020.

Still waiting for some polling data on Trump beating Biden in the popular vote nationally, or in a battle ground state. Still nothing showing that.

Oh and the popular vote does matter because over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is the winner of the electoral college.

NO PRESIDENT HAS EVER BEEN RE-ELECTED WITHOUT WINNING THE POPULAR VOTE!

Trump will have to get his approval rating up from around 40% to at least 48% to be an EVEN bet for re-election. His peak so far is 45%. His low is 35%. His average is 40%. His current is 39%.

OK, good post. Its still very early in the process, and we'll see what happens when the voting starts. IMHO Biden is too old, especially for the young progressives. Can the older dems put him over the top? We'll see. I'm not worried about Trump's chances. Unless the economy tanks like for BO in 2008, but that seems unlikely. As 538 says, it looks like a 50-50 race so far. Both parties are unpopular.

So someone who was born in November of 1942 is too old, but someone who was born in June of 1946 is just fine? Think about that logically for a second.