U2Edge
Gold Member
- Sep 15, 2012
- 5,273
- 1,199
- Thread starter
- #481
Then add the electoral college slant and trump wins again in the face of popular choice...that would be 3rd or 4th time in recent history.Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.
February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10
January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12
June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14
March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17
February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9
January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17
December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14
October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18
October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9
September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13
August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12
July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15
June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13
May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14
April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14
March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14
When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.
Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.
The electoral college won't save Trump this time.
Oh and just so everyone knows again, this is how the 11 biggest states in the country, the ones that get you to 270 EC votes breakdown in terms of who they usually support:
BLUE WALL STATES:
New Jersey
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Michigan
California
New York
SWING STATES:
Ohio
Florida
RED STATES:
Texas
North Carolina
Georgia
But realize this, recent polls have Texas as toss up. North Carolina is a possible toss up to given recent polling. This is not good news for the current Republican party.