U2Edge
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- Sep 15, 2012
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- #81
Umm yeah, and how did those polls work with the last Presidential election ?Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.
February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10
January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12
June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14
March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17
February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9
January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17
December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14
October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18
October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9
September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13
August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12
July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15
June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13
May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14
April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14
March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14
When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.
Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.
The National polls worked just fine. They predicted Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by 3 percentage points and she ended up winning the popular vote by 2 percentage points.
90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote wins the electoral college and the election. It was a rare fluke that Hillary did not win the electoral college. In order for Trump to be re-elected, he will need to win the popular vote. No President has ever been re-elected without winning the popular vote.
So the national polls which predict the popular vote result have been right and were right for Hillary Clinton.
But Trump is 13.5 points behind Biden instead of just 3 points behind Hillary. There will not be any fluke electoral college victories in 2020.
Care to put your money where your mouth is? Bet against Trump and make money if you're so confident.
Cohen Testimony Has Zero Effect on 2020 Presidential Odds
Careful, the polls and MSM have been wrong before
I trust scientific polling over betting in Vegas. The national polls were RIGHT in 2016, Hillary won the popular vote.