Toro
Diamond Member
It's not? LOL
No, it's not.
The difference between gambling and investing in stocks is that over time, the casino is the house and your initial stake will erode regardless of how well you do in the short run, whereas in stocks, the investor is the house and the initial stake will grow regardless of how poorly you do in the short run.
That's why long lived plans such as SS should invest in stocks.
ah, but it's a gamble as to whether the market will be up or down when you retire, and the recent credit meltdown proved that simply diversifying will not fully remove risk.
So, it's gambling on the market being at point A in year X, when it could be at point B.
That's why gambling works. No matter if its in a capital market of Vegas, you're betting against the house, but you individual skill may allow you to do better than the fellow shmuck next to you.
I did the math on this.
I looked at three scenarios for a person retiring at 65 at the beginning of 2008 who began saving $5000 a year over the previous 20 years.
In the first scenario, he invested in the US stock market. In the second, he invested in the US bond market. In the third, he had a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds, with the weight in bonds his age and rebalanced every year. So, when he began at age 45, he was 45% invested in bonds and 55% in stocks. When he was 55, he was 55% invested in bonds and 45% invested in stocks. And when he retired at 65, right before the Financial Crisis, he was 65% invested in bonds and 35% invested in stocks. That's a very basic rule of thumb for anyone's asset allocation.
In the first scenario, at the end of 2013, the all stock portfolio would have been worth $480k, all bond portfolio would have been worth $286k, and the balanced portfolio would have been worth $381k.
Even with the collapse in 2008, the portfolios would have been similar. An all stock portfolio would have been worth $210k at the end of 2008, the all bond portfolio $230k, and the balanced portfolio $249k.
For a typical person, the best portfolio is a balanced one. In that scenario, the portfolio fell 9.5% in 2008.
The compounding returns on stocks are very compelling, and should be part of savings. They should be a part of SS.