Who do you think will come out on top in tomorrows Republican Debate?

[Jackson]

focus groups....

I know you lean liberal, does the liberal stations do that kind of thing?

 

[frigidweirdo]

By farting? With his toupee?

with ten candidates, odds are 50% that at least one of them will fart.

What are the odds that they fart and every other candidate gets knocked unconscious?

What are the odds of you posting adult comment?

Well, if we're onto fart jokes, pretty slim I'd say.

Maturity is not one of your strong points, is it? Is that because you are limited or being disgusting because it's not a Democrat Debate?

You know, now you just peed me off. You debate with complete morons day in and day out, people who wouldn't know what being serious is. Then you make ONE FECKING JOKE and all the creatures crawl out of the woodwork to call you immature.

 

[Jackson]

with ten candidates, odds are 50% that at least one of them will fart.

What are the odds that they fart and every other candidate gets knocked unconscious?

What are the odds of you posting adult comment?

Well, if we're onto fart jokes, pretty slim I'd say.

Even if we're NOT onto fart jokes, pretty slim I'd say.

Love your sense of irony. You don't bother speaking properly almost all the time. And yet you try and hammer anyone who makes a joke. Damn, you must be the life and soul of the party.

Jeb did such a poor job in that little discussion they had, if he flubs this debate, it's over for him.

Trump just has to hang on. He's already at the top, he just has to stay there.

Cruz should be watched. He had a nice private dinner with Trump. I would not put collusion past them.

Very interesting, Tipsy! Maybe they are going to announce a "ticket."

 

[candycorn]

focus groups....

I know you lean liberal, does the liberal stations do that kind of thing?

I'm sure they do. They are equally as meaningless. What a focus group tells you is nothing. Are you familiar with the Hawthorne effect?

 

[Jackson]

with ten candidates, odds are 50% that at least one of them will fart.

What are the odds that they fart and every other candidate gets knocked unconscious?

What are the odds of you posting adult comment?

Well, if we're onto fart jokes, pretty slim I'd say.

Maturity is not one of your strong points, is it? Is that because you are limited or being disgusting because it's not a Democrat Debate?

You know, now you just peed me off. You debate with complete morons day in and day out, people who wouldn't know what being serious is. Then you make ONE FECKING JOKE and all the creatures crawl out of the woodwork to call you immature.

What did you expect, Frigid? I have to get on my 10 yr.old grandson about the bathroom humor. Why don't you just start over with something substantive to say?

 

[S.J.]

with ten candidates, odds are 50% that at least one of them will fart.

What are the odds that they fart and every other candidate gets knocked unconscious?

What are the odds of you posting adult comment?

Well, if we're onto fart jokes, pretty slim I'd say.

Maturity is not one of your strong points, is it? Is that because you are limited or being disgusting because it's not a Democrat Debate?

You know, now you just peed me off. You debate with complete morons day in and day out, people who wouldn't know what being serious is. Then you make ONE FECKING JOKE and all the creatures crawl out of the woodwork to call you immature.

You butthurt because nobody thinks your grade school jokes are funny?

 

[Jackson]

focus groups....

I know you lean liberal, does the liberal stations do that kind of thing?

I'm sure they do. They are equally as meaningless. What a focus group tells you is nothing. Are you familiar with the Hawthorne effect?

Slightly. Tell me what you think.

 

[Jackson]

Debates are perhaps the most dangerous thing a candidate does in the course of their campaign. Here is how it will go down.

Whomever you see as the winner of a primary debate is usually not the winner. The winner is the one who, with 5 months until the first ballots being cast, stabilizes his foundation. At this point and at the General Election level where turnout is the only real factor, you are not debating the other guy on stage, you're debating yourself first and foremost. Debates are pretty much useless until you're at the point to where you're going to decide between vanilla and chocolate (candidate A or B) and their being side-by-side and highlighting the differences means something. With 10 candidates, it means nothing. You don't bet on Win, Place or Show in an election. Win is e only goal.

Christie, Walker and Kasich have recently ran campaigns and recall the high wire act of a debate. They will (or should) emerge in a better condition from the debate given their recent experience and understanding the race.

Trump and Cruz will be the "winner" in most people's eyes because they will take the most outlandish positions and play to the crowd the most.

Bush is the most interesting man in the debate tomorrow. How he behaves is going to go a long way in determining if he is in it for the long haul.

Thank you for sharing that. I am eager to hear from the candidates I do not know as much as the others. You're right it is about "Winning" the debate.

If you recall, Perry last year had a "failing moment" when he couldn't remember the three istitutions he would cut. He's never recovered from that gaffe.

So, you think Trump and Cruz will be the winner...think Cruz being up there is iffy.

 

[candycorn]

focus groups....

I know you lean liberal, does the liberal stations do that kind of thing?

I'm sure they do. They are equally as meaningless. What a focus group tells you is nothing. Are you familiar with the Hawthorne effect?

Slightly. Tell me what you think.

It's not what I think; It's what psychology tells us is the case: if you know you're being observed, you behave differently. If you're in church, you don't cuss, for example. You think God is listening. If you're an unknown person on a message board, you feel free to post whatever you want and make an ass out of yourself at times if you're like me. If the mask is off and your real name is attached to what you're writing, you're going to be real careful what you put out for public consumption.

Focus groups know they are being observed. They often know by whom and whom the audience is that will be listening to their responses.

Secondly, if it's done for television, the size of the group is usually grounds for dismissal of the group's findings. Seventy percent of a group may like something. Until you realize that the 70% is 7 out of 10. You change 2 minds and you're at 50/50. If the group is 1,800 former Romney Supporters and you get 70% positive feedback, then you have an issue since the opposition will have to change about 300-400 minds to get it back to 50/50.

Lastly, usage of a focus group is wonderful if you're wargaming the opposition. I cannot imagine anyone in a focus group of republicans or right leaning indies will hear anything thats a turnoff tomorrow. If you have a stand-in for Hillary and a stand-in for let's say Scott Walker going at it and the dial groups are giving you negatives, you change your approach to an issue. Perhaps you bring up the word "contraceptive" if you're talking about the slashing of Planned Parenthood grants in an attempt to minimize what is actually being cut. Good luck with that by the way.

Focus groups have their place. It's not in a primary debate and its not when deciding between 10 flavors of chocolate in a television studio.

 

[frigidweirdo]

What are the odds that they fart and every other candidate gets knocked unconscious?

What are the odds of you posting adult comment?

Well, if we're onto fart jokes, pretty slim I'd say.

Maturity is not one of your strong points, is it? Is that because you are limited or being disgusting because it's not a Democrat Debate?

You know, now you just peed me off. You debate with complete morons day in and day out, people who wouldn't know what being serious is. Then you make ONE FECKING JOKE and all the creatures crawl out of the woodwork to call you immature.

What did you expect, Frigid? I have to get on my 10 yr.old grandson about the bathroom humor. Why don't you just start over with something substantive to say?

You want something good? Well, I started a thread about replacing the dollar bill, it would save tax payers a lot of money.
However those people, like Trump, who talk about the govt spending too much money etc, don't seem to give a damn about the US govt spending too much on producing dollar bills (average life 5.8 years) rather than coins (average life 30 years or so).

Or, I've been speaking about gun control, mainly with a guy who likes to insult and is now on the ignore list. However when I go and PROVE that the 2A right to bear arms is the right to be in the militia no one replies to the post, because they know it's true, instead they go off and pretend I didn't say anything.

However, we're talking about TRUMP. He's entertainment, nothing else other than stand up and get people's attention with entertaining politics. He doesn't have much good to say other than insulting people, which is probably why this people who spend their whole time insulting on this board love him for being "honest" as they call it. He is entertaining. But do you really want a clown as president? A clown would be entertaining.

 

[Jackson]

focus groups....

I know you lean liberal, does the liberal stations do that kind of thing?

I'm sure they do. They are equally as meaningless. What a focus group tells you is nothing. Are you familiar with the Hawthorne effect?

Slightly. Tell me what you think.

It's not what I think; It's what psychology tells us is the case: if you know you're being observed, you behave differently. If you're in church, you don't cuss, for example. You think God is listening. If you're an unknown person on a message board, you feel free to post whatever you want and make an ass out of yourself at times if you're like me. If the mask is off and your real name is attached to what you're writing, you're going to be real careful what you put out for public consumption.

Focus groups know they are being observed. They often know by whom and whom the audience is that will be listening to their responses.

Secondly, if it's done for television, the size of the group is usually grounds for dismissal of the group's findings. Seventy percent of a group may like something. Until you realize that the 70% is 7 out of 10. You change 2 minds and you're at 50/50. If the group is 1,800 former Romney Supporters and you get 70% positive feedback, then you have an issue since the opposition will have to change about 300-400 minds to get it back to 50/50.

Lastly, usage of a focus group is wonderful if you're wargaming the opposition. I cannot imagine anyone in a focus group of republicans or right leaning indies will hear anything thats a turnoff tomorrow. If you have a stand-in for Hillary and a stand-in for let's say Scott Walker going at it and the dial groups are giving you negatives, you change your approach to an issue. Perhaps you bring up the word "contraceptive" if you're talking about the slashing of Planned Parenthood grants in an attempt to minimize what is actually being cut. Good luck with that by the way.

Focus groups have their place. It's not in a primary debate and its not when deciding between 10 flavors of chocolate in a television studio.

Thanks for that. Would you watch the focus groups tomorrow so we could discuss it?

 

[Synthaholic]

I'm not sure, but I am willing to guess Trump and Walker. After that, Kasich.

Trump is getting advice everywhere to stop with bombastic comments and provide more detail to what he would actually do as POTUS.

What do you think?

What's your criteria?

What's your definition of 'On Top'?

You likely mean who will get in the best zingers.

My definition would be the one who presents actual solutions that a majority of Americans Left and Right agree on.

 

[candycorn]

Debates are perhaps the most dangerous thing a candidate does in the course of their campaign. Here is how it will go down.

Whomever you see as the winner of a primary debate is usually not the winner. The winner is the one who, with 5 months until the first ballots being cast, stabilizes his foundation. At this point and at the General Election level where turnout is the only real factor, you are not debating the other guy on stage, you're debating yourself first and foremost. Debates are pretty much useless until you're at the point to where you're going to decide between vanilla and chocolate (candidate A or B) and their being side-by-side and highlighting the differences means something. With 10 candidates, it means nothing. You don't bet on Win, Place or Show in an election. Win is e only goal.

Christie, Walker and Kasich have recently ran campaigns and recall the high wire act of a debate. They will (or should) emerge in a better condition from the debate given their recent experience and understanding the race.

Trump and Cruz will be the "winner" in most people's eyes because they will take the most outlandish positions and play to the crowd the most.

Bush is the most interesting man in the debate tomorrow. How he behaves is going to go a long way in determining if he is in it for the long haul.

Thank you for sharing that. I am eager to hear from the candidates I do not know as much as the others. You're right it is about "Winning" the debate.

If you recall, Perry last year had a "failing moment" when he couldn't remember the three istitutions he would cut. He's never recovered from that gaffe.

So, you think Trump and Cruz will be the winner...think Cruz being up there is iffy.

I said "win" in terms of getting the press coverage for what they said. Back when Walter Mondale was running against his opponent, he used a phrase "Where's the beef?" echoing a popular catch phrase from Wendy's. I forget who was the target of it but I think it was Gary Hart who was never heard from again. Likewise when Reagan hit Mondale with the "youth and inexperience" broadside...that debate was over. I remember Bush Sr. talking about Dukakis and the contentious nature of the campaign. He said something along the lines of, "I was hoping to catch a ride home in his tank" referring to Dukakis's ad where he was in a tank.

Winning a debate and setting up your run long term are not mutually exclusive goals.

My point was that with 5 months to go, you can certainly lose but you're not going to win much ground. Cruz and or Trump will win because they will get the most sound-bytes on Friday. Christie, Walker, and Kasich needn't win the sound-byte contest; they simply need to put down their markers and leave themselve s a functional campaign going forward.

 

[candycorn]

focus groups....

I know you lean liberal, does the liberal stations do that kind of thing?

I'm sure they do. They are equally as meaningless. What a focus group tells you is nothing. Are you familiar with the Hawthorne effect?

Slightly. Tell me what you think.

It's not what I think; It's what psychology tells us is the case: if you know you're being observed, you behave differently. If you're in church, you don't cuss, for example. You think God is listening. If you're an unknown person on a message board, you feel free to post whatever you want and make an ass out of yourself at times if you're like me. If the mask is off and your real name is attached to what you're writing, you're going to be real careful what you put out for public consumption.

Focus groups know they are being observed. They often know by whom and whom the audience is that will be listening to their responses.

Secondly, if it's done for television, the size of the group is usually grounds for dismissal of the group's findings. Seventy percent of a group may like something. Until you realize that the 70% is 7 out of 10. You change 2 minds and you're at 50/50. If the group is 1,800 former Romney Supporters and you get 70% positive feedback, then you have an issue since the opposition will have to change about 300-400 minds to get it back to 50/50.

Lastly, usage of a focus group is wonderful if you're wargaming the opposition. I cannot imagine anyone in a focus group of republicans or right leaning indies will hear anything thats a turnoff tomorrow. If you have a stand-in for Hillary and a stand-in for let's say Scott Walker going at it and the dial groups are giving you negatives, you change your approach to an issue. Perhaps you bring up the word "contraceptive" if you're talking about the slashing of Planned Parenthood grants in an attempt to minimize what is actually being cut. Good luck with that by the way.

Focus groups have their place. It's not in a primary debate and its not when deciding between 10 flavors of chocolate in a television studio.

Thanks for that. Would you watch the focus groups tomorrow so we could discuss it?

I'm getting ready for audits. I won't be watching.

 

[DarkFury]

Trump has more "face time" in front of cameras then ALL of them put together. He will do well. Cruz will do well. Walker will do well.
Bush will sink like a rock.

 

[Jackson]

What are the odds of you posting adult comment?

Well, if we're onto fart jokes, pretty slim I'd say.

Maturity is not one of your strong points, is it? Is that because you are limited or being disgusting because it's not a Democrat Debate?

You know, now you just peed me off. You debate with complete morons day in and day out, people who wouldn't know what being serious is. Then you make ONE FECKING JOKE and all the creatures crawl out of the woodwork to call you immature.

What did you expect, Frigid? I have to get on my 10 yr.old grandson about the bathroom humor. Why don't you just start over with something substantive to say?

You want something good? Well, I started a thread about replacing the dollar bill, it would save tax payers a lot of money.
However those people, like Trump, who talk about the govt spending too much money etc, don't seem to give a damn about the US govt spending too much on producing dollar bills (average life 5.8 years) rather than coins (average life 30 years or so).

Or, I've been speaking about gun control, mainly with a guy who likes to insult and is now on the ignore list. However when I go and PROVE that the 2A right to bear arms is the right to be in the militia no one replies to the post, because they know it's true, instead they go off and pretend I didn't say anything.

However, we're talking about TRUMP. He's entertainment, nothing else other than stand up and get people's attention with entertaining politics. He doesn't have much good to say other than insulting people, which is probably why this people who spend their whole time insulting on this board love him for being "honest" as they call it. He is entertaining. But do you really want a clown as president? A clown would be entertaining.

Thank you for your thoughtful post. Are you the poster who said replacing the dollar would save over a billion dollars? That caught my attention but I don't think the thread was about that. But I would like to discuss it.

I thought the 2nd amendment was about bearing arms in your own homes...

And for Trump.. I like some of the things he has said, but I don't like his arrogance. I think he would be a wrong choice for president, but I like the idea that he had the balls to say something that wasn't popular. Which turns out it was popular. I think it will be interesting to see how the other candidates will handle him if Trump goes off on them.

 

[Jackson]

I know you lean liberal, does the liberal stations do that kind of thing?

I'm sure they do. They are equally as meaningless. What a focus group tells you is nothing. Are you familiar with the Hawthorne effect?

Slightly. Tell me what you think.

It's not what I think; It's what psychology tells us is the case: if you know you're being observed, you behave differently. If you're in church, you don't cuss, for example. You think God is listening. If you're an unknown person on a message board, you feel free to post whatever you want and make an ass out of yourself at times if you're like me. If the mask is off and your real name is attached to what you're writing, you're going to be real careful what you put out for public consumption.

Focus groups know they are being observed. They often know by whom and whom the audience is that will be listening to their responses.

Secondly, if it's done for television, the size of the group is usually grounds for dismissal of the group's findings. Seventy percent of a group may like something. Until you realize that the 70% is 7 out of 10. You change 2 minds and you're at 50/50. If the group is 1,800 former Romney Supporters and you get 70% positive feedback, then you have an issue since the opposition will have to change about 300-400 minds to get it back to 50/50.

Lastly, usage of a focus group is wonderful if you're wargaming the opposition. I cannot imagine anyone in a focus group of republicans or right leaning indies will hear anything thats a turnoff tomorrow. If you have a stand-in for Hillary and a stand-in for let's say Scott Walker going at it and the dial groups are giving you negatives, you change your approach to an issue. Perhaps you bring up the word "contraceptive" if you're talking about the slashing of Planned Parenthood grants in an attempt to minimize what is actually being cut. Good luck with that by the way.

Focus groups have their place. It's not in a primary debate and its not when deciding between 10 flavors of chocolate in a television studio.

Thanks for that. Would you watch the focus groups tomorrow so we could discuss it?

I'm getting ready for audits. I won't be watching.

I hope it was not your taxes! Anyway, I am disappointed I would have like to talk to you about the group's comments.

 

[Jackson]

Trump has more "face time" in front of cameras then ALL of them put together. He will do well. Cruz will do well. Walker will do well.
Bush will sink like a rock.

Why do you think Bush will sink?

 

[DarkFury]

Trump has more "face time" in front of cameras then ALL of them put together. He will do well. Cruz will do well. Walker will do well.
Bush will sink like a rock.

Why do you think Bush will sink?

I think he will play it to safe and not take any stands. That will make him look weak. Thus he sinks.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Well, if we're onto fart jokes, pretty slim I'd say.

Maturity is not one of your strong points, is it? Is that because you are limited or being disgusting because it's not a Democrat Debate?

You know, now you just peed me off. You debate with complete morons day in and day out, people who wouldn't know what being serious is. Then you make ONE FECKING JOKE and all the creatures crawl out of the woodwork to call you immature.

What did you expect, Frigid? I have to get on my 10 yr.old grandson about the bathroom humor. Why don't you just start over with something substantive to say?

You want something good? Well, I started a thread about replacing the dollar bill, it would save tax payers a lot of money.
However those people, like Trump, who talk about the govt spending too much money etc, don't seem to give a damn about the US govt spending too much on producing dollar bills (average life 5.8 years) rather than coins (average life 30 years or so).

Or, I've been speaking about gun control, mainly with a guy who likes to insult and is now on the ignore list. However when I go and PROVE that the 2A right to bear arms is the right to be in the militia no one replies to the post, because they know it's true, instead they go off and pretend I didn't say anything.

However, we're talking about TRUMP. He's entertainment, nothing else other than stand up and get people's attention with entertaining politics. He doesn't have much good to say other than insulting people, which is probably why this people who spend their whole time insulting on this board love him for being "honest" as they call it. He is entertaining. But do you really want a clown as president? A clown would be entertaining.

Thank you for your thoughtful post. Are you the poster who said replacing the dollar would save over a billion dollars? That caught my attention but I don't think the thread was about that. But I would like to discuss it.

I thought the 2nd amendment was about bearing arms in your own homes...

And for Trump.. I like some of the things he has said, but I don't like his arrogance. I think he would be a wrong choice for president, but I like the idea that he had the balls to say something that wasn't popular. Which turns out it was popular. I think it will be interesting to see how the other candidates will handle him if Trump goes off on them.

Well, if we're onto fart jokes, pretty slim I'd say.

Maturity is not one of your strong points, is it? Is that because you are limited or being disgusting because it's not a Democrat Debate?

You know, now you just peed me off. You debate with complete morons day in and day out, people who wouldn't know what being serious is. Then you make ONE FECKING JOKE and all the creatures crawl out of the woodwork to call you immature.

What did you expect, Frigid? I have to get on my 10 yr.old grandson about the bathroom humor. Why don't you just start over with something substantive to say?

You want something good? Well, I started a thread about replacing the dollar bill, it would save tax payers a lot of money.
However those people, like Trump, who talk about the govt spending too much money etc, don't seem to give a damn about the US govt spending too much on producing dollar bills (average life 5.8 years) rather than coins (average life 30 years or so).

Or, I've been speaking about gun control, mainly with a guy who likes to insult and is now on the ignore list. However when I go and PROVE that the 2A right to bear arms is the right to be in the militia no one replies to the post, because they know it's true, instead they go off and pretend I didn't say anything.

However, we're talking about TRUMP. He's entertainment, nothing else other than stand up and get people's attention with entertaining politics. He doesn't have much good to say other than insulting people, which is probably why this people who spend their whole time insulting on this board love him for being "honest" as they call it. He is entertaining. But do you really want a clown as president? A clown would be entertaining.

Thank you for your thoughtful post. Are you the poster who said replacing the dollar would save over a billion dollars? That caught my attention but I don't think the thread was about that. But I would like to discuss it.

I thought the 2nd amendment was about bearing arms in your own homes...

And for Trump.. I like some of the things he has said, but I don't like his arrogance. I think he would be a wrong choice for president, but I like the idea that he had the balls to say something that wasn't popular. Which turns out it was popular. I think it will be interesting to see how the other candidates will handle him if Trump goes off on them.

Let's just say enough people with an agenda can make anyone think what they want them to think. Even the Supreme Court in the Heller case managed to say that the right were wrong, but wrote their decision in a manner which allows the right to carry on thinking whatever they damn well please.

Which presidential hopeful is talking about this Page 3 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

Here's the thread about the dollar bill. For some reason I put it in current affairs.

The problem with Trump, and others like him, is they say stuff that wasn't considered popular, mainly because it was wrong, and then they say it and it turns out it's popular, mainly because there are a lot of people who don't care too much about the truth.

Mexicans are all rapists, while it might be popular with the right of the country, just isn't the truth. They'll come out and say they like hearing someone who isn't afraid to say what they think, they'll come out and say that they like non-PC stuff. The problem is it's wrong, it alienates people, it looks like high school nonsense and it's not doing it in a manner that's intended to be a light joke either.

There's a party in the UK, called UKIP. It has one or two policies and not much else. They were "We want an end to PC nonsense" sort of thing. Then the non-PC stuff they so much like was used against them. Some high school kid made an app and it was a parody against the party. The supporters were all up in arms, how dare he do this. Other stuff happened too, and all of a sudden the "we're anti-PC" thing was dropped because they realised that non-PC stuff is actually just harmful and often lies. But the supporters of UKIP are like the supporters of Trump, they just want to feel there's hope and they don't like politicians and most of all they want to be entertained.

Nigel Farage is the straight talking charismatic guy, like Trump. But was he successful? No. They went from 2 seats down to one in the last election.