Why hasn't the ruble collapsed yet?

[rupol2000]

The situation is extremely unstable, and the ruble is rapidly depreciating. The situation is extremely favorable for speculators to play for a fall and collapse the ruble and deplete gold and foreign exchange reserves. This usually happens in such situations, it was even with the British pound. Why haven't they done this yet?

The game for the collapse of the national currency is that speculators take large loans in rubles and immediately sell them. The Central Bank is trying to maintain the rate, for this it buys out the entire supply at the expense of foreign exchange reserves in the gold reserves, when they are depleted, there is a sharp drop, and speculators close transactions, as a result, they win the entire difference between the purchase and sale prices.

In 2008, the US was stable, but the market still collapsed.

This is a paradox.
In a situation where a fall is expected and there is no confidence, this is done elementarily, because the downtrend will be massively picked up even by those who do not play for a fall, in order to save money.

 

[ReinyDays]

I believe the difference is the English pound is a "hard" currency ... and the exchange rate is subject to market conditions ... whereas the Russian ruble is a "soft" currency ... the exchange rate is set by Moscow, and not market conditions ...

No one takes the ruble outside of Russia/Belarus ... so Moscow needs foreign currency to buy foreign goods ... or just make things internally and put Russians to work ... or sell more fossil fuel to energy hungry Europe for Euros ... no one cares about the ruble ...

 

[rupol2000]

By the way, I think that in 2008 there was a game against Bush Jr.
The left bastards and trumpists are much more involved in dirty financial shenanigans than the right. Eurocentrists rely on banks.
The crisis of the 29th was initiated by the Roosevelt Stalinists.
After that, they banned shorts

 

[shockedcanadian]

Oil

 

[rupol2000]

I believe the difference is the English pound is a "hard" currency .

Nonsense. Hard currencies are backed by third countries with export economies. There is no independence from the market. This is due to the fact that the debts are redeemed by the central banks of export economies, which receive foreign currency, they export inflation to their countries, and the issued hard currencies are extinguished when buying government bonds.

 

[rupol2000]

Oil

And what about oil?

 

[rupol2000]

and the exchange rate is subject to market conditions ... whereas the Russian ruble is a "soft" currency ... the exchange rate is set by Moscow, and not market conditions ...

There is nothing like it, you fantasize. There is no artificial corridor, it is supported by financial mechanisms. To maintain the fixed exchange rate, the central bank is forced to buy the entire national currency from the foreign exchange market.
This is possible only as long as the gold and foreign exchange reserves are not depleted.

 

[JohnDB]

Russia has been keeping the Ruble from falling by buying them on the open market by selling commodities on the open market for Rubles. (AKA reserves)
However....Russia is out of reserves.

 

[rupol2000]

Russia has been keeping the Ruble from falling by buying them on the open market by selling commodities on the open market for Rubles. (AKA reserves)
However....Russia is out of reserves.

But if the reserves run out there, it's easy to collapse the ruble. They have nothing to support the course. Why then has this not happened yet?

 

[rupol2000]

on the open market by selling commodities on the open market for Rubles. (AKA reserves)

This is not entirely true. Export economies sell goods for hard currencies. The reserves are denominated not in rubles, but in hard currencies, they lie there in the form of government bonds of foreign states.
To support the exchange rate of the ruble, they do not spend rubles, but rather foreign hard currency. To keep the rate from falling, you must constantly buy rubles for dollars or euros.

 

[JohnDB]

This is not entirely true. Export economies sell goods for hard currencies. The reserves are denominated not in rubles, but in hard currencies, they lie there in the form of government bonds of foreign states.
To support the exchange rate of the ruble, they do not spend rubles, but rather foreign hard currency. To keep the rate from falling, you must constantly buy rubles for dollars or euros.

They have been using Yuan as well as commodities.

And they have just this month run out of reserves.

So I don't expect it to remain as high as it currently is. They can start just printing money...last for a while doing that but when they have nothing of value to pay soldiers with....it's over.

 

[rupol2000]

They have been using Yuan as well as commodities.

And they have just this month run out of reserves.

So I don't expect it to remain as high as it currently is. They can start just printing money...last for a while doing that but when they have nothing of value to pay soldiers with....it's over.

Where is the information that they use the yuan? What's the point, the Yuan is not a hard currency and it is not used in international trade.

They have been printing money for a long time, inflation has doubled in six months.

 

[surada]

By the way, I think that in 2008 there was a game against Bush Jr.
The left bastards and trumpists are much more involved in dirty financial shenanigans than the right. Eurocentrists rely on banks.
The crisis of the 29th was initiated by the Roosevelt Stalinists.
After that, they banned shorts

It's 100 ruples to the dollar.

 

[rupol2000]

This printed money is now not backed by anything. If there is no collapse, then they will default. They're just buying time for a bluff.

 

[rupol2000]

The central bank can only finance the government by buying their bonds. They can't just print money for them without cover. Therefore, for the time being, the refinancing bubble will grow, the government will print new bonds to cover old debts, then they will default. In this case, the ruble will still fall to zero, but they can buy time this way. Here's the purpose of this scam

 

[JohnDB]

Where is the information that they use the yuan? What's the point, the Yuan is not a hard currency and it is not used in international trade.

They have been printing money for a long time, inflation has doubled in six months.

The Ruble is only down 20% over the past 3 or 4 years. 40% for the past 6 months.

Their banks were transparent until 18 months ago....something like that and we once knew what their reserves inside Russian banking were.

Calculations from there have led the estimates and their statements about no longer supporting the Ruble. This with the "pillow banking" and they can survive for a while....but not long.

 

[luiza]

Any major power that is self sufficient -- only the Russian Federation is -- can never go under because the outside exchange rate is irrelevant if there are no imports .
And a falling currency simply helps exports in existing markets and promotes entry into new markets .
Read and learn .

 

[Moonglow]

Russia is having a recession and has plenty of goods so prices are not inflating like in the US where we are not having a recession and have a shortage of goods.

 

[JohnDB]

Russia is having a recession and has plenty of goods so prices are not inflating like in the US where we are not having a recession and have a shortage of goods.

Here a couple of weeks ago they had a major interest rate hike to 12% from 4%.
So currently their currency is stable....kinda.
What the real effect will be is on goods. Because of the false exchange rate goods were actually cheap in Russia....now the real inflation hitting the average person.

This coupled with the attacks by Ukraine in St Petersburg, Moscow and other locations in Russia and at sea....the internal pressure on Putin is going to ramp up....especially because of the attacks in St Petersburg. (Where the real power in Russia resides)

Then when wealthy Russian escapees from Russia begin getting deported back to Russia....it will start some more pressure.

If it weren't for the lack of "Freedom of the Press" inside of Russia Putin would know exactly how much trouble he actually is in.

As it is he doesn't know and doesn't care. He thinks that he has squashed the rebellion growing inside of Russia....he hasn't. He has only galvanized it.

 

[rupol2000]

The ruble did not collapse because the central bank raised the rate after the psychological mark of 100, around August 15. But now it is close to 100 again, and the rate has been raised slightly.
The Central Bank claims that inflation is less than 5%, this is ridiculous.