Why Moldova May Be the Scariest Country on Earth

[Disir]

On Wednesday, the Associated Press published a horrifying report about criminal networks in the former Soviet Union trying to sell “radioactive material to Middle Eastern extremists.” At the center of these cases, of which the AP learned of four in the past five years, was a “thriving black market in nuclear materials” in a “tiny and impoverished Eastern European country”: Moldova.

It’s a new iteration of an old problem with a familiar geography. The breakup of the Soviet Union left a superpower’s worth of nuclear weapons scattered across several countries without a superpower’s capacity to keep track of them. When Harvard’s Graham Allison flagged this problem in 1996, he wrote that the collapse of Russia’s “command-and-control society” left nothing secure. To wit:

The Russian nuclear weapons archipelago includes hundreds of sites over one-seventh of the Earth’s land mass, sites at which 1,000 tons of highly enriched uranium, 100 tons of plutonium and some 30,000 nuclear warheads are at risk.

Specifically, as described in Foreign Policy by the journalist Douglas Birch:

Russia inherited [the Soviet Union’s] vast stores of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. And they were a mess. Western visitors to weapons depots and labs were shocked to find AWOL guards, broken fences and unlocked doors. Two million nerve gas shells were discovered sitting in rotting barns in a patch of forest in western Siberia.
Why Moldova May Be the Scariest Country on Earth

Hey, look-it's an old problem and a new report!

 

[The Great Goose]

That's not scary. Youtube " witch burning africa" and you'll see scary.

 

[nuhuh]

On Wednesday, the Associated Press published a horrifying report about criminal networks in the former Soviet Union trying to sell “radioactive material to Middle Eastern extremists.” At the center of these cases, of which the AP learned of four in the past five years, was a “thriving black market in nuclear materials” in a “tiny and impoverished Eastern European country”: Moldova.

It’s a new iteration of an old problem with a familiar geography. The breakup of the Soviet Union left a superpower’s worth of nuclear weapons scattered across several countries without a superpower’s capacity to keep track of them. When Harvard’s Graham Allison flagged this problem in 1996, he wrote that the collapse of Russia’s “command-and-control society” left nothing secure. To wit:

The Russian nuclear weapons archipelago includes hundreds of sites over one-seventh of the Earth’s land mass, sites at which 1,000 tons of highly enriched uranium, 100 tons of plutonium and some 30,000 nuclear warheads are at risk.

Specifically, as described in Foreign Policy by the journalist Douglas Birch:

Russia inherited [the Soviet Union’s] vast stores of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. And they were a mess. Western visitors to weapons depots and labs were shocked to find AWOL guards, broken fences and unlocked doors. Two million nerve gas shells were discovered sitting in rotting barns in a patch of forest in western Siberia.
Why Moldova May Be the Scariest Country on Earth

Hey, look-it's an old problem and a new report!

Stratfor is a private intelligence consulting firm and in the last quarter they predicted the collapse of Russia. Take a look at the second paragraph and you will see just how scary loose nuclear material can be.

"Russia will collapse ...

"There will not be an uprising against Moscow, but Moscow's withering ability to support and control the Russian Federation will leave a vacuum," Stratfor warns. "What will exist in this vacuum will be the individual fragments of the Russian Federation."

Sanctions, declining oil prices, a plunging ruble, rising military expenses, and increasing internal discord will weaken the hold of Russia's central government over the world's largest country. Russia will not officially split into multiple countries, but Moscow's power may loosen to the point that Russia will effectively become a string of semi-autonomous regions that might not even get along with one another.

"We expect Moscow's authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia" the report states, adding, "It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form."


... and the US will have to use its military to secure the country's nukes.

A deactivated Soviet-era SS-4 medium-range nuclear-capable ballistic missile.

Russia's nuclear-weapons infrastructure is spread across a vast geographic area. If the political disintegration Stratfor predicts ever happens, it means that weapons, uranium stocks, and delivery systems could end up exposed in what will suddenly become the world's most dangerous power vacuum.

The breakout of Russia's nuclear weapons stockpile will be "the greatest crisis of the next decade," according to Stratfor.

And the US will have to figure out what to do about it, even if it means dispatching ground troops to secure loose weapons, materials, and delivery systems.

"Washington is the only power able to address the issue, but it will not be able to seize control of the vast numbers of sites militarily and guarantee that no missile is fired in the process," the Decade Forecast states. "The United States will either have to invent a military solution that is difficult to conceive of now, accept the threat of rogue launches, or try to create a stable and economically viable government in the regions involved to neutralize the missiles over time."
Stratfor

 

[Disir]

It isn't a question of it being "scary". It's been "scary" for some twenty years. It just so happens to be conveniently scary right now. Wouldn't you agree?

 

[nuhuh]

It isn't a question of it being "scary". It's been "scary" for some twenty years. It just so happens to be conveniently scary right now. Wouldn't you agree?

Yes, at some point we can expect some kind of nuclear material attack. I also doubt it will be a worse fear attack (read bomb) and will either be contained or a very gross nuisance. You can also bet money the response will be way over the top.

 

[Disir]

It isn't a question of it being "scary". It's been "scary" for some twenty years. It just so happens to be conveniently scary right now. Wouldn't you agree?

Yes, at some point we can expect some kind of nuclear material attack. I also doubt it will be a worse fear attack (read bomb) and will either be contained or a very gross nuisance. You can also bet money the response will be way over the top.

Ya, like trying to legitimize war with Russia.

 

[Igrok_]

It isn't a question of it being "scary". It's been "scary" for some twenty years. It just so happens to be conveniently scary right now. Wouldn't you agree?

Yes, at some point we can expect some kind of nuclear material attack. I also doubt it will be a worse fear attack (read bomb) and will either be contained or a very gross nuisance. You can also bet money the response will be way over the top.

Ya, like trying to legitimize war with Russia.

Maybe with Moldova would be more reasonable?

 

[Delta4Embassy]

On Wednesday, the Associated Press published a horrifying report about criminal networks in the former Soviet Union trying to sell “radioactive material to Middle Eastern extremists.” At the center of these cases, of which the AP learned of four in the past five years, was a “thriving black market in nuclear materials” in a “tiny and impoverished Eastern European country”: Moldova.

It’s a new iteration of an old problem with a familiar geography. The breakup of the Soviet Union left a superpower’s worth of nuclear weapons scattered across several countries without a superpower’s capacity to keep track of them. When Harvard’s Graham Allison flagged this problem in 1996, he wrote that the collapse of Russia’s “command-and-control society” left nothing secure. To wit:

The Russian nuclear weapons archipelago includes hundreds of sites over one-seventh of the Earth’s land mass, sites at which 1,000 tons of highly enriched uranium, 100 tons of plutonium and some 30,000 nuclear warheads are at risk.

Specifically, as described in Foreign Policy by the journalist Douglas Birch:

Russia inherited [the Soviet Union’s] vast stores of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. And they were a mess. Western visitors to weapons depots and labs were shocked to find AWOL guards, broken fences and unlocked doors. Two million nerve gas shells were discovered sitting in rotting barns in a patch of forest in western Siberia.
Why Moldova May Be the Scariest Country on Earth

Hey, look-it's an old problem and a new report!

US gave nuclear weapons tech to Iran before they had their revolution. Funny how we do it's in the national interest, when other people do it we launch cruise missiles at them over it.