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Will the US economy have another boom or it will be stagnating forever?

IronFist

Senior Member
May 26, 2015
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I don't think that we can do anything to improve the situation as long as leftists are in charge. We need a strong republican authority to change things for the better. There are no successful leftist welfare states because leftism is just an another word for communism. They just want to give free stuff to everyone and equalize people making them believe into one paradigm leftists got used to.
 
If the Democrats are permitted to continue the downhill slide here, the money will simply leave. People will go elsewhere.
 
Is the stock market rising over 12000 points in five years a boom?
 
Considering what Bush left us and what Republicans did to the world economy, we are having a boom.
 
Is the stock market rising over 12000 points in five years a boom?

It has nothing - zero - to do with Obama and the Democrats, anymore than the IT expansion of the 90s had to do with Bill Clinton and the Democrats.

You don't get credit simply for being in the right place at the right time.
 
Is the stock market rising over 12000 points in five years a boom?

It has nothing - zero - to do with Obama and the Democrats, anymore than the IT expansion of the 90s had to do with Bill Clinton and the Democrats.

You don't get credit simply for being in the right place at the right time.
You didn't do that

Yet, if it had dropped 2000 points like it did under eight years of Bush.....it would have clearly been Obamas fault
 
Is the stock market rising over 12000 points in five years a boom?

Did you mean 11,500 in 6 years? Kinda speaks to the strength of our economy and its resiliency, eh? Maybe we should skip that whole socialist thing and stick with capitalism.
 
The problem with the US economy is that it is heavily tied to the global stock market trends. Businesses won't hire again until the stock market pops most of it's bubbles. We've been sitting stagnant as a whole since around 89' or so - individual companies may have risen, but as a whole global market has been pretty flat, really only had crashes and recoveries.

Going off the Dow you can see that we started a slow uptick, but the Greece thing hit the fan and that kept the market hesitant. I'm figuring that once the EU as a whole figures out their financial issues we'll continue upward, though I'm not expecting a major spike until space tourism or we have a major energy breakthrough. My next "sort of" prediction for a US crash will be the medical industry bubble, but with the state of "mandated" insurance in flux it's near impossible to call; single payer, mandated, or repealed are all going to have different effects on the economy. Either way, personally I'm staying away from investing medical... I might miss out on a cure for cancer, but I'm too lazy watch for when to pull out. Rather stick to oil, which even if we hit major energy breakthrough have enough money to overtake w/e new energy field and computers, which aren't going anywhere, at least not in my lifetime.
 
Stock market is paper money cards for rich poker players. The real economy is on the ground with consumers and it is mostly energy driven. As long as lefties continue stifling energy supply the economy will suck. Been energy driven for seventy years.
 
Is the stock market rising over 12000 points in five years a boom?

Did you mean 11,500 in 6 years? Kinda speaks to the strength of our economy and its resiliency, eh? Maybe we should skip that whole socialist thing and stick with capitalism.

You call a 11500 rise stagnating?

Nope, and I stayed the course in 2009 and rode the pony right back uppa.
The point is 11,500 in 6 years is not (as you claimed) 12,000 over 5 years. You are bright enough to use the truth.
 
I think you misspoke, "Stock market is paper money cards for business owners" - fixed that for you.

Who do you think does the vast majority of the hiring in the country? Go look at the top 100 employers in the US and tell me they aren't tied into the stock market... (excluding government jobs, the department of defense being one of the top employers in the US, of course, Dem's want to cut the military down but that's a different issue. heh)

How about Wal-mart said:
Background: "Wal-Mart has pursued globalization aggressively since its first move across the border in 1991. In 1993 just 1 percent of all Wal-Mart stores were located outside the United States, by 1998, that had grown to 18 percent. Between 1995 and 1998, 5 percent of the company's growth in sales and 4 percent of its growth in profits came from international operations. [Their stock value spiked from a flat line of 11 to 43 in 1997 ~ http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WMT+Interactive#{"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true} ]

Did Wal-Mart need to go global? Clearly, it had developed a successful business model for competing in the United States. Why not just prosper as an American retailer? The answer is that the company needed to grow in order to survive, and the international arena was the only one in which significant growth was possible.

Why was growth so important? First, the company needed to show increases in both sales and profits to satisfy capital market expectations. Second, it needed to satisfy the expectations of its own employees. One of the key factors in Wal-Mart's success was its dedicated and committed work force. Thanks to Wal-Mart's stock purchase plan, the wealth of these employees was directly tied to the market value of the company's stock, creating a direct link between growth and its effect on stock price and company morale.

Given the necessity for growth, Wal-Mart could not afford to confine its operations to the United States for three reasons. First, it had already saturated most of the domestic markets. Second, the United States accounts for just over 4 percent of the world's population. By limiting itself to this market, Wal-Mart was missing out on 96 percent of the world's potential customers. 1 Finally, emerging markets, with their lower levels of disposable income, offered huge platforms for growth in discount retailing. Other companies had already capitalized on such growth thanks to the rapid expansion of information technology, increasing cultural homogenization and lowered trade barriers. 2 Wal-Mart had no choice but to pursue globalization aggressively to meet this competition.

[...]

By 1996, Wal-Mart felt ready to take on the Asian challenge. It targeted China, with a population of more than 1.2 billion in 640 cities, as the growth vehicle. This choice made sense in that the lower purchasing power of the Chinese consumer offered huge potential to a low-price retailer like Wal-Mart. Still, China's cultural, linguistic and geographical distance from the United States presented relatively high entry barriers, so Wal-Mart decided to use two beachheads as learning vehicles for establishing an Asian presence. ~ Taking Wal-Mart Global Lessons From Retailing s Giant

Number two employer in the US is noted as Yum! Brands (aka Taco Bell said:
Did you know they are actually a spin-out from Pepsi in 1997? - Yum Brands - Defining Global Company that Feeds the World So the real story of globalization is in Pepsi-co - did you know they went bankrupt 3 times? Sugar rationing from WWII being one of the causes - anyway they originally went global in 1940, though bankrupted and were sold to Coke defectors heh. In any event, their international focus was mostly stagnant until the 80's when the new CEO of Frito-Lay aggressively went after the global market. The Yum! stock portfolio: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=YUM+Interactive#{"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true}

What happened in 2008 that started their stock incline? Globalization.

"But the operator of KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut isn't gleaming with glory just yet. Management is hard at work restructuring its menu, strategically growing its business outside of the U.S., and returning capital to shareholders. It's anyone's guess whether our economy will be able to get back on track in the next year. However, regardless of further slowing of domestic customer spending, Yum! Brands' international presence and plans to renovate its product selection have convinced me to recommend this as the best stock for 2008.

America: Land of no growthI recently commented on the notion that the U.S. just isn't the economy it once was. Even when consumer spending is robust, competition in the domestic restaurant industry is fierce, making it difficult for new concepts to enter the market. Additionally, as we've observed with Starbucks (NYSE: SBUX ) , chains that have already proven successful find it difficult to continuously expand their market share once they begin to saturate the market.

Yet even after boasting the most system restaurants in the world, Yum! Brands is far from inundating the globe with its fast-food chains. Admittedly, domestic growth is waning with over 20,000 restaurants. In fact, U.S. sales have been falling slightly in the past year, exacerbated by the e. coli and rat incidents at Taco Bell. But international potential is huge for the company, specifically China.

Last year, domestic sales slipped 6%, while international grew 9% and China increased 26%. Not only is the company growing revenue at a rapid clip overseas, but its operations are more profitable. In 2006, international operating margins were well over 17% of sales, while the U.S. division only posted 13.6% operating margins." ~ Best Stock for 2008 Yum Brands YUM

---

And what does Yum! say? "Yum! Brands, Inc., based in Louisville, Kentucky, has over 41,000 restaurants in more than 125 countries and territories. Yum! is ranked #228 on the Fortune 500 List with revenues of over $13 billion. In 2014 Yum! was named among the top 100 Corporate Citizens by Corporate Responsibility Magazine and one of the Aon Hewitt Top Companies for Leaders in North America. The Company's restaurant brands – KFC®, Pizza Hut® and Taco Bell® – are the global leaders of the chicken, pizza and Mexican-style food categories. Outside the United States, the Yum! Brands system opens over five new restaurants per day on average, making it a leader in international retail development.

[...]

"We maintain a consistent commitment to deliver at least 10% EPS growth annually.

With over 41,000 restaurants in more than 125 countries and territories, Yum! Brands' international growth sees no signs of stopping as we continue to enter international markets, introducing people around the world to our winning brands." ~ Yum Brands - Defining Global Company that Feeds the World

Even more telling their annual report from 2014:

"In 2014 we grew full-year EPS 4% to $3.09 per share, excluding Special Items. This was well below our 2014 full-year target of at least 20%. These results were heavily skewed by the challenges handed to our biggest division as we suffered two highly publicized supplier incidents in two years in China. However, we know our brands are resilient and continue to believe this setback is temporary. After our first supplier incident, which negatively impacted 2013, we recovered and delivered strong results in the first half of 2014. Specifically, our China Division operating profit increased 116% and Yum! EPS grew 27% through our first two quarters, prior to Special Items. We were convinced 2014 would be a year of at least 20% EPS growth. The July Shanghai Husi supplier incident changed all that. However, we are fully committed to achieving at least 10% EPS growth in 2015 and I'm confident we have the people and plans in place to deliver double-digit growth going forward.
[...]
Given our long-term positive outlook for China – and our continued belief that our current sales issues are temporary – we opened 737 new restaurants across the country in 2014. We continued our disciplined approach to development, shifting our new-unit program toward higher return investments. In 2015, we plan to open 700 more new units in China. In addition to the massive new-unit opportunity we have with KFC and Pizza Hut Casual Dining, we will continue to expand Pizza Hut Home Service as well.
[...]
In India, system sales increased 14%* for the year and we sustained a strong pace of development, with 156 new restaurants. While we are outperforming the category in India, macroeconomic conditions weighed on our overall results. Yum! India President Niren Chaudhary is using this opportunity to strengthen our positioning with consumers as well as our business model. This will set us up for success in a country which is expected to become the largest consumer market in the world." ~ 2014 Yum Brands Annual Report

McDonald's is listed as the number 3 employer in the US said:
McDonalds opened their first non-US restaurant's in Canada and Costa Rica in 1967. Over a six month period in 1971 they expanded into three continents, Japan, Holland, and Sydney. Brazil in 1979. Russia 1990. Morocco in 1992. Belarus in 1996. Stock History - http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MCD+Interactive#{"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true}

What happened around 1993 to boost their stock? China.

"The opening of a McDonald's in Beijing, China, on April 23, 1992, attracted about 40,000 customers. Two new restaurants opened in Poland in 1992, each surpassing the Moscow and Beijing records for opening day transactions. McDonald's entered the Middle East with a new restaurant in Tel Aviv, Israel in October 1993. In 1995, about 7,000 restaurants in 89 countries produced sales of $14 billion. ~ Company History of McDonald s eHow

How about in 2003 when they spiked up? China.

"Notably, we will aggressively pursue growth opportunities in markets with great longterm potential. China, with 1.3 billion people and a growing economy, is a perfect example.

We are committed to keeping our entire System focused on the execution of one plan, our Plan to Win, and communicating one global brand message to our customers: “i’m lovin’ it.” ~ http://www.aboutmcdonalds.com/conte.../C-\fakepath\investors-2003-annual-report.pdf

Jump forward a few years to 2010:

"We began the year determined to build on our momentum and strengthen our brand around the world. So with the business environment still challenging - and with many
others forced to hold their ground - we pushed ahead. We dug for deeper consumer insights, aligned our strategies, and strengthened the pillars of our business, from our
menu and restaurants to our value and convenience.

The result was another banner year for McDonald’s. Global comparable sales increased 5% in 2010 - our eighth consecutive year of same store sales growth. Operating
income grew 9% and we continued to gain market share around the world. In addition, we returned $5.1 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends
paid, and we provided a 27% return to investors for the year, ranking us third among the companies comprising the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Our success remains global, with all areas of the world contributing significantly to our results. In the U.S., comparable sales increased 3.8%, while guest count growth reached all-time highs. A record number of customers visited our restaurants and drive-thrus across the U.S., even as overall dining-out traffic remained flat. Europe grew comparable sales by 4.4% and also increased guest counts - serving 200 million more customers than the year before. Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa continued to make a strong impact to our overall results with higher guest counts and 6% comparable sales growth." ~ http://www.aboutmcdonalds.com/conte.../C-\fakepath\investors-2010-annual-report.pdf
 
The problem with the US economy is that it is heavily tied to the global stock market trends. Businesses won't hire again until the stock market pops most of it's bubbles. We've been sitting stagnant as a whole since around 89' or so - individual companies may have risen, but as a whole global market has been pretty flat, really only had crashes and recoveries...

I disagree. Thanks in large part to technological advances (think computers), most First World and some emerging economies have seen extraordinary productivity and valuation gains. If you have had $100,000 in any of America's most popular stock index funds since 1988 it is worth nearly $1mil today.
 

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