g5000
Diamond Member
- Nov 26, 2011
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An inverted US Treasury yield curve has been a reliable indicator of a pending recession.
Well, check out how badly it is inverted at the moment!
Going back to 1978, it takes about 15 months on average for the economy to enter a recession after the yield curve inverts, according to Horneman’s analysis. “Applying this timeframe to the current inversion (roughly one year ago) the economy could enter a recession in October of this year.”
Still, past performance is no guarantee of future results. And even past performance can be a little misleading. The last time the yield curve inverted was 2019. A short recession did follow, but there were some other major forces acting on the economy at the time.
Well, check out how badly it is inverted at the moment!
![www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com](https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/assets/ustyc-chart-thumbnail-default-ccaa7c703f3dd7e97d22d1b0158a212837e729424a9f0b74fde449e915402152.png)
![26-july-yield-curve.jpg](https://i.ibb.co/10k9nwj/26-july-yield-curve.jpg)
This classic recession indicator just hit its lowest level since 1981
Going back to 1978, it takes about 15 months on average for the economy to enter a recession after the yield curve inverts, according to Horneman’s analysis. “Applying this timeframe to the current inversion (roughly one year ago) the economy could enter a recession in October of this year.”
Still, past performance is no guarantee of future results. And even past performance can be a little misleading. The last time the yield curve inverted was 2019. A short recession did follow, but there were some other major forces acting on the economy at the time.