CDZ 2014 Mid-Term Election returns thread

[Pop23]

Sen. Cruz is already talking about repealing Obamacare. Again.

Elections have consequences.

Where have I heard that before?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Strangely enough, CNN has not yet called the NM race for the other Udall. LOL.
AP has already called it.

Scott Brown has just conceded the race in New Hampshire.

 

[tuhaybey]

GDP didn't do much when Dems had control 2009-2011.

Yes it did. We went from 14.4T in 2009 to 15.5T in 2011. That's almost 8% GDP growth in 2 years. Definitely solid for any year, but spectacular considering that the rest of the first world was still firmly in the midst of the recession well into 2010.

 

[TemplarKormac]

What on Earth are you talking about?

The Republican voters screwed up tonight. Royally. Again. They just don't seem to be informed enough or smart enough to carry out their responsibility to vote in a sensible manner and we all continually suffer the consequences of their failure. They don't even seem to be trying to do better.

Really? They seem to have kicked the Dems collective rear ends. This was a vote AGAINST the Dems running the show. It wasn't a vote FOR the Repubs. It's the Dems who screwed up royally. That's why they lost.

This reminds me of what happens when you stop a kid from playing with sharp objects

 

[WelfareQueen]

I think you said that well.

For me, it's just about the pure numbers right now. And about the sweeping majesty of electoral history.

Very little of what is happening tonight is surprising me at all.

Like I said, I will be very interested in seeing the end-canvasses when they do come out in the next 4 to 6 weeks.

It is clearly a wave election which you did not predict. You said Marc Uterus would win Colorado and Hagan would win NC. Stat....the models and polls were way off in virtually every State.

They were off in Kansas, Virginia, and NC by at least 4 points. Many other races were off by a similar amount.

No, I said that that was where the polling was pointing to in those states. Try again.

Again, again, his name is Marc Udall.

You did tell me Hagan would win. And what did I tell you?

He also said not to trust the polls in Colorado favoring the GOP candidate. Ooops....

I wrote that the polls in the SW of the Union had been off in 2008, 2010 and 2012, which is historically correct. You can go see the data for yourself.

You specifically said not to trust the numbers favoring the GOP candidate. Ooops.....

 

[westwall]

Sandoval wins Nevada governor.

That wasn't in doubt. His opponent came in second to "None of the Above".

 

[tuhaybey]

Really? They seem to have kicked the Dems collective rear ends. This was a vote AGAINST the Dems running the show. It wasn't a vote FOR the Repubs. It's the Dems who screwed up royally. That's why they lost.

No, you guys turned over control of a large swath of our government to the Republicans and that mistake will harm the country for years to come. They voted to make some kind of statement instead of voting rationally and that is not good enough.

 

[TemplarKormac]

GDP didn't do much when Dems had control 2009-2011.

Yes it did. We went from 14.4T in 2009 to 15.5T in 2011. That's almost 8% GDP growth in 2 years. Definitely solid for any year, but spectacular considering that the rest of the first world was still firmly in the midst of the recession well into 2010.

10T to 17.5T in debt in 6 years. 105% of GDP. Thanks, Obama.

 

[tuhaybey]

10T to 17.5T in debt in 6 years. 105% of GDP. Thanks, Obama.

Yep, the Bush recession was very costly. Good thing we've now practically eliminated the deficit under Obama, huh?

Do you have any idea how much the cost of the debt is compared to the loss of GDP growth we get when Republicans are in a position to obstruct? The latter is an order of magnitude larger.

 

[LiberalMedia]

The patriarchy is using syxyst math to oppress Kay Hagan into defeat.

NC SBE Election Results

Thom Tillis	REP	1,392,455	48.88 %
Kay Hagan	DEM	1,344,650	47.20 %
Sean Haugh	LIB	106,325	3.73 %
Write-In (Miscellaneous)	5,153	0.18 %

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

"Even if the split favored Hagan, she couldn't hope to overcome the 48K vote handicap she's facing now to win. A Democratic victory in NC is numerically impossible."

 

[westwall]

Really? They seem to have kicked the Dems collective rear ends. This was a vote AGAINST the Dems running the show. It wasn't a vote FOR the Repubs. It's the Dems who screwed up royally. That's why they lost.

No, you guys turned over control of a large swath of our government to the Republicans and that mistake will harm the country for years to come. They voted to make some kind of statement instead of voting rationally and that is not good enough.

You really don't get it do you. The Dems screwed up big time by ignoring their jobs and instead deciding to line their pockets. They have now paid for that perfidy. No matter how much you whine and snivel that is the reality of this election. The people are fed up with corruption.

 

[Statistikhengst]

That's a shame, Tim's a friend of mine.

There's always a winner and a loser. Many will come away beaten and almost as many will feel the thrill of victory.

I think you said that well.

For me, it's just about the pure numbers right now. And about the sweeping majesty of electoral history.

Very little of what is happening tonight is surprising me at all.

Like I said, I will be very interested in seeing the end-canvasses when they do come out in the next 4 to 6 weeks.

It is clearly a wave election which you did not predict. You said Marc Uterus would win Colorado and Hagan would win NC. Stat....the models and polls were way off in virtually every State.

They were off in Kansas, Virginia, and NC by at least 4 points. Many other races were off by a similar amount.

No credible pundits were predicting a wave election cycle.....( But I did....)...the wins for Governors in Michigan, Florida, and Wisconsin were huge.

No. I pointed out that the Generic polling aggregate was not pointing to a wave. And the House results have yet to give a final tally.

I also wrote all along that the GOP was winning where it needed to win, in reference to the Senate. I must have written that at least 20 times.

Try again. Instead of attacking me, which is inappropriate here, anyway, wait until the end data comes in.

Relax man.....no one is attacking you. It is simply admitting what you got right and what you got wrong. You got Colorado, Iowa, and NC wrong. You said it would not be a wave election cycle. It happens.

I did get NC wrong. Everything else I hit the bullseye.

Wait a minute. What you wrote is, however, not true. I will not let you get away with an untruth.

I wrote many times in the 2014 elections polling thread that anything at around 2% aggregate is a coin-flip or crapshoot. I must have written it at least 20 or 30 times. So, I never predicted Iowa for Braley. I never predicted Colorado for Udall (yes, that is his name), etc. I simply reported the aggregates.

I also wrote that I give the GOP a 90% chance of getting to 51, a 75% chance of getting to 52, a 67% chance of getting to 53, a 47% chance of getting to 54 and a null chance of getting to 55.

THAT was my prediction.

So, try again.

That is the beauty of me having documented all of this. I can go back and quote it all in exquisite detail.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Rick Scott wins Florida governor

 

[Statistikhengst]

CNN is now projecting that Tom Udall has won his seat in New Mexico.

 

[WelfareQueen]

I have to say Nate Silver nailed it again. He pointed out polls in key States were biased slightly against the GOP. States such as Kansas, North Carolina, and Iowa. He inferred the GOP would probably do better in many of the battleground states than the polls suggested.

I agreed with Silver's analysis and started a thread with his data. Many said Silver data was flawed or wrong. Turns out he was right....(and so was I. ).

 

[Statistikhengst]

I would be amazed were the GOP to not win AK, so I bet this brings them to 53 before the night is over.

 

[tuhaybey]

You really don't get it do you. The Dems screwed up big time by ignoring their jobs and instead deciding to line their pockets. They have now paid for that perfidy. No matter how much you whine and snivel that is the reality of this election. The people are fed up with corruption.

That kind of approach to voting that you describe- voting as a means to express your feelings rather than as an exercise in trying to identify which party is in fact more likely to accomplish the things you want- is the reason this country isn't anywhere near where it should be economically. If people voted rationally, nobody would vote Republican except for maybe some fringe nuts who care more about demeaning gay people than they care about the economy. Republican electoral wins are just a straight up measure of the incompetence of the electorate in each district.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I think that the worst sign of the night for the Ds has been that the Virginia race was much closer than thought.

Whether the GOP gets to 54 depends on the Louisiana runoff. And I suspect that that will be a R win, when all is said and done.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Sen. Cruz is already talking about repealing Obamacare. Again.

Elections have consequences.

Where have I heard that before?

You have a valid point. But repeal will be impossible. Presidential veto power.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The GOP is still narrowly ahead in CO and in KS in the gubernatorial races.