CDZ 2014 Mid-Term Election returns thread

[WelfareQueen]

It is amazing how wrong virtually every pundit was regarding this election cycle. Much of the polling data was way off....like in Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina and Kansas as the most obvious examples.

Larry Sabato and Nate Silver predicted about a 75% chance of the GOP taking the Senate, but they both said 52-48 was most likely.

Nate Silver said there was only a 30-35% chance of knowing who would win the Senate tonight.

No major pundit I saw predicted a wave election cycle.

 

[Judicial review]

This election was all about peoples pocket books and not feeling safe in our own counyry due to a failing administration. Political genius has spoken. Better listen.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

GDP didn't do much when Dems had control 2009-2011.

Yes it did. We went from 14.4T in 2009 to 15.5T in 2011. That's almost 8% GDP growth in 2 years. Definitely solid for any year, but spectacular considering that the rest of the first world was still firmly in the midst of the recession well into 2010.

That's 14.4T to 15.0T , a touch over 4% in 2 years.
And the rest of his recovery has been weak as well.

 

[WelfareQueen]

This election was all about peoples pocket books and not feeling safe in our own counyry due to a failing administration. Political genius has spoken. Better listen.

Elections have consequences. I wonder if Obama will finally get a clue.

 

[Judicial review]

Republicans have won NY-1

That's a shame, Tim's a friend of mine.

There's always a winner and a loser. Many will come away beaten and almost as many will feel the thrill of victory.

Of coursr he didnt predict it. See my posts since ive been here. Check out post 2 in this thread. Im the only one.
I think you said that well.

For me, it's just about the pure numbers right now. And about the sweeping majesty of electoral history.

Very little of what is happening tonight is surprising me at all.

Like I said, I will be very interested in seeing the end-canvasses when they do come out in the next 4 to 6 weeks.

It is clearly a wave election which you did not predict. You said Marc Uterus would win Colorado and Hagan would win NC. Stat....the models and polls were way off in virtually every State.

They were off in Kansas, Virginia, and NC by at least 4 points. Many other races were off by a similar amount.

No credible pundits were predicting a wave election cycle.....( But I did....)...the wins for Governors in Michigan, Florida, and Wisconsin were huge.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

LePage gets reelected governor in Maine. Dems failed at this one too.

 

[Judicial review]

This election was all about peoples pocket books and not feeling safe in our own counyry due to a failing administration. Political genius has spoken. Better listen.

Elections have consequences. I wonder if Obama will finally get a clue.

Hed save the dems asses in 2016 if he did get a clue. Right now our chances in 2016 are in our hands. Thank you obama!

 

[WelfareQueen]

Even CNN is calling it a wave election. The aftermath will be interesting in digging through the numbers and figuring out way so many pollsters got things so wrong.

 

[TemplarKormac]

This election was all about peoples pocket books and not feeling safe in our own counyry due to a failing administration. Political genius has spoken. Better listen.

Elections have consequences. I wonder if Obama will finally get a clue.

Hed save the dems asses in 2016 if he did get a clue. Right now our chances in 2016 are in our hands. Thank you obama!

Dad's gonna be happy about this...

 

[EconChick]

I have to say Nate Silver nailed it again. He pointed out polls in key States were biased slightly against the GOP. States such as Kansas, North Carolina, and Iowa. He inferred the GOP would probably do better in many of the battleground states than the polls suggested.

I agreed with Silver's analysis and started a thread with his data. Many said Silver data was flawed or wrong. Turns out he was right....(and so was I. ).

You know who went out on a limb and called this? Just like he gets a lot of things right?

Sean Hannity.

 

[tuhaybey]

That's 14.4T to 15.0T , a touch over 4% in 2 years.
And the rest of his recovery has been weak as well.

No, it is 14,419b to 15,518b.

The whole "weak recovery" meme is kind of strange. Most importantly, because a weak recovery is much better than a rapid collapse. Also because we've actually posted pretty strong economic numbers during Obama's presidency. The origin of the meme was actually "the weakest recovery from a recession this big." But that's just a trick- there is only one other recession this big- the Great Depression. And, yes, this recovery has been slower than that one. In that one, we had FDR and an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature pushing extremely liberal policy while this time we've had a moderate Obama facing massive obstruction from the legislature. So what is the lesson to draw from that?

 

[westwall]

You really don't get it do you. The Dems screwed up big time by ignoring their jobs and instead deciding to line their pockets. They have now paid for that perfidy. No matter how much you whine and snivel that is the reality of this election. The people are fed up with corruption.

That kind of approach to voting that you describe- voting as a means to express your feelings rather than as an exercise in trying to identify which party is in fact more likely to accomplish the things you want- is the reason this country isn't anywhere near where it should be economically. If people voted rationally, nobody would vote Republican except for maybe some fringe nuts who care more about demeaning gay people than they care about the economy. Republican electoral wins are just a straight up measure of the incompetence of the electorate in each district.

The fact is the Obama agenda is screwing up the country and the people have said they don't want any part of it. Remember, "elections have consequences". Funny how you hyper partisan people seem to think you're immune.

 

[westwall]

Sen. Cruz is already talking about repealing Obamacare. Again.

Elections have consequences.

Where have I heard that before?

You have a valid point. But repeal will be impossible. Presidential veto power.

Veto's can be over ridden.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The GOP has already picked-up 9 seats in the HOR and there still some uncalled races where the GOP is ahead.

For instance, MT-AL should already have been called for the R, he is 9 points ahead.

Potential GOP pickups in MD-06 and TX-23.

It looks like Maloney (D)will hold on to his seat in NY-18.

LA-04, 05 and 06 go into runoffs.

However, in UT-04, Republican challenger Mia Love is losing to Democratic incumbent Dan Owens.

The Ds really wanted to pick-up CA-31; right now the R is winning by 1 point.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Sen. Cruz is already talking about repealing Obamacare. Again.

Elections have consequences.

Where have I heard that before?

You have a valid point. But repeal will be impossible. Presidential veto power.

Veto's can be over ridden.

With 67 votes in the US Senate. Ain't gonna happen.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Butch Otter wins Idaho governor.

 

[tuhaybey]

If we still had the rep system, I'd neg the snot out of you.

Ok, I'm guessing that means that you don't know how much the debt costs compared to how much Republican obstruction costs.

The debt costs around $200b/year.

On average, years we've had divided control of the government, we've averaged 2.9% GDP growth compared to 5.2% when we've had unified Democratic control and -0.8% when we've had unified Republican control. So, what that means is that splitting up the government costs us around $500b/year worth of GDP growth and giving the Republicans unified control costs us around $1t/year.

Today, the Republicans opted for 2 years of obstruction, so that's a total cost of $1t to the nation's economy.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Just look at this map. See how bad it was. Painted the House red:

2014 House Election Interactive Map

 

[Statistikhengst]

Even CNN is calling it a wave election. The aftermath will be interesting in digging through the numbers and figuring out way so many pollsters got things so wrong.

Believe me, once the final canvasses are in (4 to 6 weeks), I will be doing the math, to be sure.

 

[TemplarKormac]

If we still had the rep system, I'd neg the snot out of you.

Ok, I'm guessing that means that you don't know how much the debt costs compared to how much Republican obstruction costs.

The debt costs around $200b/year.

On average, years we've had divided control of the government, we've averaged 2.9% GDP growth compared to 5.2% when we've had unified Democratic control and -0.8% when we've had unified Republican control. So, what that means is that splitting up the government costs us around $500b/year worth of GDP growth and giving the Republicans unified control costs us around $1t/year.

Today, the Republicans opted for 2 years of obstruction, so that's a total cost of $1t to the nation's economy.

Stop self flagellating. All you can do is wail at the grave. Give it a rest, Democrats are done.