23% of Republicans Say they Won't Vote for Gingrich

[JoeB131]

From an ABC poll

Gingrich has considerable vulnerabilities that Romney must exploit to convince voters that Gingrich would lose in the general election. The former speaker is unpopular nationally and with independent voters. He is also unpopular in his own party. In New Hampshire exit polls, more than 60 percent said they would not be happy if he were the nominee. National polls show the same thing. In a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, 23 percent of Republicans said they would not support him. Only Ron Paul did worse. Women voters, an important swing voting bloc, do not like Gingrich.

]

First, why do you trust anything from the MSM.

Second, exit polling showed that 7 % of self-described Republicans didn't vote for Bush in 2004 and 10% didn't vote for McCain in 2008.

18% say they won't vote for a Mormon. But you guys are ignoring that detail, ain't you?

In U.S., 22% Are Hesitant to Support a Mormon in 2012

However, today's Gallup Poll was kind of interesting. It showed that Both Gingrich and Romney both poll at about 48% against Obama's 50%.

Election 2012 Polling and News, Republican Presidential Candidates, Obama, Interactive Polling Data

Oh, and Newt's ahead in two new Polls in Florida...

 

[Amelia]

If this is how the GOP should pick their candidate...then we should nominate Obama.

I sure very few liberals will turn out to oppose him.

It's about what percentage of your voters you can get out. The voter enthusiasm gap has been in the GOP's favor up until now.

More people on the right have shown themselves to be determined to vote, to get Obama out. The left have been deflated. They might have yawned and rolled over to get a little more sleep instead of going to the polls.

They won't be bored anymore. Newt being on our side will not get more Republicans out. He might get less Republicans out. There are a lot of us who remember him with disgust from the 1990's. And he WILL get more Democrats out.

Newt neutralizes the GOP's enthusiasm advantage.


That is my prediction.

There is much more enthusiasm for Newt than there is for Mitt.

You need to look at the electoral picture.

If Republicans take the traditionally Red states and hold red leaning Ohio, Virginia and Florida then Obama has to run the table taking New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to win.

Newt is represented Georgia, he is strong with seniors, he currently resides in Virginia, and Mitt blew it in Ohio both with the "I won't endorse the collective bargaining bill...I mean, of course I endorse it" and with Romneycare, because he cannot focus on Obamacare...which is a huge issue in Ohio.

Romney MAY give us New Hampshire.

Bottom line, looking at national polls is misleading.

A Republican is not going to win California and a Democrat is not going to win Texas.

The strongest candidate in this election is the one that appeals most to Republicans in Red and Red-leaning States.


If Romney wins the nomination, all that will accomplish is that the GOP will lose California and Massachusetts by less that usual...whoopie.

It doesn't matter how enthusiastic Newt's voters are. What matters/mattered is how enthusiastic Obama's voters aren't/weren't.

The GOP has plenty of anti-Obama enthusiasm. That would get out the vote no matter who was at the top of the GOP ticket.

The Democrats did not have enthusiasm. A lot of their people would have stayed home. NOW they WILL have enthusiasm. A lot of people on the left who would have stayed home will now get out and vote for Obama because the hatred for Newt is so strong.



I personally think we could have gotten a lot of people from the middle who appreciate Romney's competence. I don't think those people in the middle who would have appreciated Romney's experience are going to switch to Newt.

So what you have for Newt is a solid hunk of the right. But you would have had them anyway because they were voting for "anybody but Obama".

You lose the middle.

And you fire up the left to vote against Newt in a way that Obama couldn't have achieved on his own.

 

[JimH52]

There are many Republicans who will stay at home, rather than vote for Newt. But please don't let that stop all you desperate republicans!

GO NEWT!

 

[JoeB131]

Go back to the link I posted earlier. According to Gallup, both Newt and Mitt are polling EXACTLY the same against Obama. (48 percent for either compared to 50 for Obama... which is quite good considering the bloodletting in the GOP Race right now.)

 

[Uncensored2008]

There are many Republicans who will stay at home, rather than vote for Newt. But please don't let that stop all you desperate republicans!

GO NEWT!

But not NEARLY as many as the number of democrats who will stay home rather voting for that fuckup Obama again.

I don't think we'll see the dims crossing party lines all that much, but I do think that a HUGE number will simply not vote.

 

[Avatar4321]

I like President-elect Newt.

Didn't you used to say more than just that at one point?

 

[JoeB131]

It doesn't matter how enthusiastic Newt's voters are. What matters/mattered is how enthusiastic Obama's voters aren't/weren't.

The GOP has plenty of anti-Obama enthusiasm. That would get out the vote no matter who was at the top of the GOP ticket.

NOT necessarily. A couple of points to be made here. The first is that "Anti" by itself doesn't get you to the finish line. There was plenty of "Anti" Reagan sentiment in 1984. The left HATED Reagan with a passion for those of you who are too young to remember.

The right hated Clinton and the left Hated Bush. They all still won because they ran against nice, safe establishment picks that no one was all that excited about. Other than Mormons, I don't see anyone excited about Mittens.

The Democrats did not have enthusiasm. A lot of their people would have stayed home. NOW they WILL have enthusiasm. A lot of people on the left who would have stayed home will now get out and vote for Obama because the hatred for Newt is so strong.

The kind of Democrat who is STILL angry about what Newt did 15 years ago is going to vote for Obama regardless.

I personally think we could have gotten a lot of people from the middle who appreciate Romney's competence. I don't think those people in the middle who would have appreciated Romney's experience are going to switch to Newt.

But again, where are they? Mitten's performance has been less stellar than his performance in 2008. An interesting point, polls show that Romney's performance amongst evangelicals in both SC and IA was actually WORSE than his performance in 2008.

Mormon Gap Prevails in SC - Spiritual Politics

So what you have for Newt is a solid hunk of the right. But you would have had them anyway because they were voting for "anybody but Obama".

You lose the middle.

And you fire up the left to vote against Newt in a way that Obama couldn't have achieved on his own.

Again, if you think that the left isn't going to be just as fired up against Romney, I think you are kidding yourself.

 

[JakeStarkey]

23%?? That's good...so about 77% will, including some democrats that actually woke up and realized how screwed we are, and maybe another % of Libertarians will probably vote for him. I guess there's a very good chance Newt could win!!! Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Since dems and centrists and independents will overwhelmingly vote for Obama, the 23% of Republicans who won't vote for Gingrich, must either vote for Obama or throw their vote away.

Conclusion: Newt and his newtemmings lead the party over the political cliff of devastating political defeat. Down with the newtemming!

 

[JimH52]

Poll: Among GOP hopefuls, Romney fares best against Obama - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

 

[Missourian]

It's about what percentage of your voters you can get out. The voter enthusiasm gap has been in the GOP's favor up until now.

More people on the right have shown themselves to be determined to vote, to get Obama out. The left have been deflated. They might have yawned and rolled over to get a little more sleep instead of going to the polls.

They won't be bored anymore. Newt being on our side will not get more Republicans out. He might get less Republicans out. There are a lot of us who remember him with disgust from the 1990's. And he WILL get more Democrats out.

Newt neutralizes the GOP's enthusiasm advantage.


That is my prediction.

There is much more enthusiasm for Newt than there is for Mitt.

You need to look at the electoral picture.

If Republicans take the traditionally Red states and hold red leaning Ohio, Virginia and Florida then Obama has to run the table taking New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to win.

Newt is represented Georgia, he is strong with seniors, he currently resides in Virginia, and Mitt blew it in Ohio both with the "I won't endorse the collective bargaining bill...I mean, of course I endorse it" and with Romneycare, because he cannot focus on Obamacare...which is a huge issue in Ohio.

Romney MAY give us New Hampshire.

Bottom line, looking at national polls is misleading.

A Republican is not going to win California and a Democrat is not going to win Texas.

The strongest candidate in this election is the one that appeals most to Republicans in Red and Red-leaning States.


If Romney wins the nomination, all that will accomplish is that the GOP will lose California and Massachusetts by less that usual...whoopie.

It doesn't matter how enthusiastic Newt's voters are. What matters/mattered is how enthusiastic Obama's voters aren't/weren't.

The GOP has plenty of anti-Obama enthusiasm. That would get out the vote no matter who was at the top of the GOP ticket.

The Democrats did not have enthusiasm. A lot of their people would have stayed home. NOW they WILL have enthusiasm. A lot of people on the left who would have stayed home will now get out and vote for Obama because the hatred for Newt is so strong.



I personally think we could have gotten a lot of people from the middle who appreciate Romney's competence. I don't think those people in the middle who would have appreciated Romney's experience are going to switch to Newt.

So what you have for Newt is a solid hunk of the right. But you would have had them anyway because they were voting for "anybody but Obama".

You lose the middle.

And you fire up the left to vote against Newt in a way that Obama couldn't have achieved on his own.

And there is the fundamental difference.

Newt (and I) believe we can win head to head based on the common sense Conservative ideas.

Romney (and you evidently) believe you need to sneak in the backdoor...if you can seem innocuous enough, perhaps no one will notice you.

That was the GOP strategy in choosing Moderate McCain, and the base was so lethargic (myself included) that he needed Palin to fire get Republicans to the polls.

Moderate Romney will induce the same lackluster energy.

Romney just isn't an energizing leader.

He'd make a great vice president...he even kind of reminds me of wooden Al Gore.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Missourian, Newt is more moderate based on all of his record than Mitt.

You are fooling yourself. America will not elect Newt, ever.

 

[Toro]

From an ABC poll

Gingrich has considerable vulnerabilities that Romney must exploit to convince voters that Gingrich would lose in the general election. The former speaker is unpopular nationally and with independent voters. He is also unpopular in his own party. In New Hampshire exit polls, more than 60 percent said they would not be happy if he were the nominee. National polls show the same thing. In a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, 23 percent of Republicans said they would not support him. Only Ron Paul did worse. Women voters, an important swing voting bloc, do not like Gingrich.

Gingrich wins South Carolina: How can Romney recover from his terrible defeat? - Slate Magazine

100% of Conservatives say they won't vote for Obama.
So - the point here is??

...flying well over your head.

 

[Toro]

From an ABC poll

Gingrich has considerable vulnerabilities that Romney must exploit to convince voters that Gingrich would lose in the general election. The former speaker is unpopular nationally and with independent voters. He is also unpopular in his own party. In New Hampshire exit polls, more than 60 percent said they would not be happy if he were the nominee. National polls show the same thing. In a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, 23 percent of Republicans said they would not support him. Only Ron Paul did worse. Women voters, an important swing voting bloc, do not like Gingrich.

]

First, why do you trust anything from the MSM.

Second, exit polling showed that 7 % of self-described Republicans didn't vote for Bush in 2004 and 10% didn't vote for McCain in 2008.

18% say they won't vote for a Mormon. But you guys are ignoring that detail, ain't you?

In U.S., 22% Are Hesitant to Support a Mormon in 2012

However, today's Gallup Poll was kind of interesting. It showed that Both Gingrich and Romney both poll at about 48% against Obama's 50%.

Election 2012 Polling and News, Republican Presidential Candidates, Obama, Interactive Polling Data

Oh, and Newt's ahead in two new Polls in Florida...

Obama v Romney

RCP Average 1/5 - 1/22 -- 47.0 45.2 Obama +1.8
Rasmussen Reports 1/20 - 1/22 1500 LV 45 43 Obama +2
PPP (D) 1/13 - 1/16 700 RV 49 44 Obama +5
CBS News/NY Times 1/12 - 1/16 1021 RV 45 45 Tie
Pew Research 1/11 - 1/16 1207 RV 50 45 Obama +5
ABC News/Wash Post 1/12 - 1/15 RV 46 48 Romney +2
FOX News 1/12 - 1/14 906 RV 46 45 Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research 1/11 - 1/12 928 RV 47 48 Romney +1

Obama v Gingrich

RCP Average 1/5 - 1/22 -- 50.7 39.7 Obama +11.0
Rasmussen Reports 1/20 - 1/22 1500 LV 48 39 Obama +9
PPP (D) 1/13 - 1/16 700 RV 49 42 Obama +7
CBS News/NY Times 1/12 - 1/16 1021 RV 50 39 Obama +11
ABC News/Wash Post 1/12 - 1/15 RV 52 40 Obama +12
FOX News 1/12 - 1/14 906 RV 51 37 Obama +14
CNN/Opinion Research 1/11 - 1/12 928 RV 52 43 Obama +9
Reuters/Ipsos 1/5 - 1/9 896 RV 53 38 Obama +15



The last poll I saw in Florida had Romney beating Obama by 6 in this state but Gingrich losing by 4.

 

[Trajan]

....Gallup had McCain ahead for 9 straight days until September 15 2008. Can the economy get worse? One gets used to the shocks of the day to day.

Newt? Mitt? really? I am beginning to get a bad feeling. The feeling I got in say mid Sept of 2008.

Theres a lot of baseball left to play but............

 

[Katzndogz]

obama already threw the white blue collar vote away. He still has blacks.

 

[Cuyo]

23% of the Republicans say they won't vote for Gingrich... Does that mean that 77% of the Republicans are going to vote for Newt?

It means 77% won't vote for odumbo. Newt wins in a landslide.

I don't think you thought this one through.

 

[JimH52]

I am tired of trying to convince some on the Far Right on this board how Gingrich is playing a shell game. I saw in print today that Gingrich is the Grass Roots choice for the GOP Nomination and Romney is the Establshment's Choice. Honestly, Gingrich should not be in the Top Four in the GOP race. He is being fed money by his Las Vegas buddy in 5 Million Dollar chucks to continue his attacks .

Gingrich as the GOP Nominee for President could be the huge disaster for Republicans. NOMINATE HIM AT YOUR OWN RISK!

 

[Amelia]

There is much more enthusiasm for Newt than there is for Mitt.

You need to look at the electoral picture.

If Republicans take the traditionally Red states and hold red leaning Ohio, Virginia and Florida then Obama has to run the table taking New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to win.

Newt is represented Georgia, he is strong with seniors, he currently resides in Virginia, and Mitt blew it in Ohio both with the "I won't endorse the collective bargaining bill...I mean, of course I endorse it" and with Romneycare, because he cannot focus on Obamacare...which is a huge issue in Ohio.

Romney MAY give us New Hampshire.

Bottom line, looking at national polls is misleading.

A Republican is not going to win California and a Democrat is not going to win Texas.

The strongest candidate in this election is the one that appeals most to Republicans in Red and Red-leaning States.


If Romney wins the nomination, all that will accomplish is that the GOP will lose California and Massachusetts by less that usual...whoopie.

It doesn't matter how enthusiastic Newt's voters are. What matters/mattered is how enthusiastic Obama's voters aren't/weren't.

The GOP has plenty of anti-Obama enthusiasm. That would get out the vote no matter who was at the top of the GOP ticket.

The Democrats did not have enthusiasm. A lot of their people would have stayed home. NOW they WILL have enthusiasm. A lot of people on the left who would have stayed home will now get out and vote for Obama because the hatred for Newt is so strong.



I personally think we could have gotten a lot of people from the middle who appreciate Romney's competence. I don't think those people in the middle who would have appreciated Romney's experience are going to switch to Newt.

So what you have for Newt is a solid hunk of the right. But you would have had them anyway because they were voting for "anybody but Obama".

You lose the middle.

And you fire up the left to vote against Newt in a way that Obama couldn't have achieved on his own.

And there is the fundamental difference.

Newt (and I) believe we can win head to head based on the common sense Conservative ideas.

Romney (and you evidently) believe you need to sneak in the backdoor...if you can seem innocuous enough, perhaps no one will notice you.

That was the GOP strategy in choosing Moderate McCain, and the base was so lethargic (myself included) that he needed Palin to fire get Republicans to the polls.

Moderate Romney will induce the same lackluster energy.

Romney just isn't an energizing leader.

He'd make a great vice president...he even kind of reminds me of wooden Al Gore.

You see, the problem with this strategy, is that Newt is NOT a conservative.

This "rah rah" stuff is stirring. But that won't make Newt conservative no matter how hard you want it to.

He was for the federal healthcare mandate from 1993 to 2009. He was only against it because Democrats embraced it in order to try to get Republicans on board.

And that's just one obvious piece of territory that Republicans will have to irrevocably cede to Obama if our nominee is Newt.

We are in deep ****.

 

[Cuyo]

What about the independent vote? The independent/moderate voter is the group that determine who wins and who loses elections.

Not when a quarter of Republicans sit it out they don't.

 

[Toro]

....Gallup had McCain ahead for 9 straight days until September 15 2008. Can the economy get worse? One gets used to the shocks of the day to day.

Newt? Mitt? really? I am beginning to get a bad feeling. The feeling I got in say mid Sept of 2008.

Theres a lot of baseball left to play but............

McCain's surge was right around the Republican convention. Parties tend to spike around the convention then fall back to trend.

It's still pretty early, but polls over the past 18 months have Gingrich's negative ratings consistently 15-20 points behind his positives, larger than any other candidate. Can he overcome that? Maybe. But I wouldn't put money on it.