Tom Paine 1949
Diamond Member
- Mar 15, 2020
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Hope you are right. But I've been predicting something like this for quite awhile, and of course there are many different actors, and "accidents happen." The Israelis want war. The Saudis learned their lesson and are backing off a bit in Yemen, but MBS is out of his mind. Also the Saudis are no longer the main player among Gulf Oil Kingdoms, are very fragile and economically overextended (even before the price war with Russia). Other powerful Kingdoms vary in their "political and religious views" from pro-Sufi "progressives" to pro-Muslim Brotherhood, really hate the Saudis, and would make better U.S. vassals. My own feeling is that Saudi butcher-dictator MBS's days are numbered.Extended unemployment for laid off oil workers is appropriate. The new West Texas oil industry will return only when the price rises substantially to make credit-fueled fracking profitable once again. It could be years, or never.
The main oil companies going bankrupt (not speaking about speculative traders — screw them) are the thousands of artificially propped up small companies whose high production cost made them impossibly non-competitive. Ditto the U.S. oil export LNG industry. Without our armies and proxies in the Middle East destroying Libya and Iraq, our sanctions stopping oil production in Iran, the chaos in and sanctions on Venezuela, our pressure on allies (Germany and Nordstream2), the oil glut would have been obvious years ago. The safety net of U.S. “oil independence” step-by-step transformed into an actual motivation for imperialist trade war, not to get oil resources, but to restrict others from getting them. Watch for conflict between the U.S. and even our long-term despicable Saudi allies.
Trump can throw billions to big oil but it is money wasted on one of the most corrupt sectors of our military-industrial complex. He will probably introduce high tariffs, which will not be enough to save our small bankrupt oil companies, but will hurt consumers. The only real solution is another imperialist war shutting down the Persian Gulf and destroying production there. The ostensible target may be Iran, but the real targets will be Saudi Arabia and China.
Sounds grim. Of course, any attack on Iran will sure lay waste to the Saudi oil infrastructure. I rather believe that's the main reason why it will not happen. No one can be so mad as to start a war on behalf of a measly 150k oil workers, and risk crude prices going through the roof, with attendant consequences. Not even to deny the Chinese the crude. Nope, don't think so.
P.S. Of course if somebody starts a war, it certainly won't be for U.S. workers. But rising oil prices saves U.S. oil as a whole, and gives the U.S. an opportunity to get its hands back directly on all the oil resources in the Gulf region. That means trillions over the long term and overwhelming leverage against China (and most everyone).
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