No way is Obama going to give Guantanamo Bay back to the Cubans. He is far to astute of a politician to do such a thing. Just imagine the outcry in this country: Obama is giving away parts of the USA! He is a friend of Castro, he must be a Communist himself!
It would simply be too costly politically to give back Guantanamo Bay. It'll never happen.
Now, normalizing relations with Cuba, putting an embassy there, allowing free trade and tourism? Maybe. Maybe during his second term, he will be able to afford such a move. Wait and see.
It didn't stop Carter.