Donald Trump has an 87-percent probability of winning the election

[Silhouette]

Donald Trump has an 87-percent probability of winning the election


This election will be won by women, Hispanics, blacks and "never Trump" moderates. You can have a 1,000 improperly done polls saying the opposite, but the math at the end of the day makes the title of this OP absolutely one of the funniest things I've heard in a long time. I needed a good belly laugh today. Thanks!

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

He predicts that Donald Trump has an 87-percent probability of winning the election in November.

BAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!

 

[StLucieBengal]

The polling hasn't been accurate for a while now. It's gonna be a slugfest but in reality if Hillary was a decent candidate she should be farther ahead. Trump makes a lot of mistakes with his comments at times which holds his surge back. He certainly has the more fever pitched following .... The more stuff that comes out with Hillary the more people will just finally say .... I can't vote for her... She is too dirty .... And those who had been adverse to trump will finally come around.

Depends who you're looking at. Silver was 99% accurate in calling states in '08 & '12 combined.

Silver has had this cycle horribly wrong so far.

At this point I have more faith in Michael Silver than I do in Nate Silver.

 

[Silhouette]

The question isn't "is Trump going to win". It's "how badly will Trump lose?"...followed by the next logical question: "...and how badly will Trump tarnish Congressional hopefuls in races that are close, by association with his escalating insanity?"...

 

[StLucieBengal]

The polling hasn't been accurate for a while now. It's gonna be a slugfest but in reality if Hillary was a decent candidate she should be farther ahead. Trump makes a lot of mistakes with his comments at times which holds his surge back. He certainly has the more fever pitched following .... The more stuff that comes out with Hillary the more people will just finally say .... I can't vote for her... She is too dirty .... And those who had been adverse to trump will finally come around.

Depends who you're looking at. Silver was 99% accurate in calling states in '08 & '12 combined.

He said Trump had a 5% chance of winning the nomination. And has looked like an idiot this whole election cycle.

 

[StLucieBengal]

Donald Trump has an 87-percent probability of winning the election


This election will be won by women, Hispanics, blacks and "never Trump" moderates. You can have a 1,000 improperly done polls saying the opposite, but the math at the end of the day makes the title of this OP absolutely one of the funniest things I've heard in a long time. I needed a good belly laugh today. Thanks!

few things here......

Blacks don't vote.

Hispanics aren't a reliable voting block either.......

And what makes you think women are so shallow that will only vote for a woman? You think that women support criminals?

As far as never trumpers..... i bet that group shrinks as we get closer.... it will shrink enough to not hurt. I bet there are those blue dems who will vote trump. And lets not forget how many Sanders voters who will vote Jill Stein or just stay how and claim they were triggered.


I am not a trump supporter. I was for Rand Paul then Ted Cruz. I will end up going with Trump only because I believe he will be toughest on Immigration. I believe we need drastic measures in that area.

 

[saintmichaeldefendthem]

Donald Trump has an 87-percent probability of winning the election


This election will be won by women, Hispanics, blacks and "never Trump" moderates. You can have a 1,000 improperly done polls saying the opposite, but the math at the end of the day makes the title of this OP absolutely one of the funniest things I've heard in a long time. I needed a good belly laugh today. Thanks!

Amazingly, everyone predicting Trump's political demise ended up looking like a fool. More amazingly still, idiots are still lining up to make the same mistake.

 

[Campbell]

Donald Trump has an 87-percent probability of winning the election


This election will be won by women, Hispanics, blacks and "never Trump" moderates. You can have a 1,000 improperly done polls saying the opposite, but the math at the end of the day makes the title of this OP absolutely one of the funniest things I've heard in a long time. I needed a good belly laugh today. Thanks!

Amazingly, everyone predicting Trump's political demise ended up looking like a fool. More amazingly still, idiots are still lining up to make the same mistake.

The Republicans have lost the popular vote in six of the last seven national elections. Just what is it that makes you think that goddam idiot Trump can change the trend?

 

[saintmichaeldefendthem]

Donald Trump has an 87-percent probability of winning the election


This election will be won by women, Hispanics, blacks and "never Trump" moderates. You can have a 1,000 improperly done polls saying the opposite, but the math at the end of the day makes the title of this OP absolutely one of the funniest things I've heard in a long time. I needed a good belly laugh today. Thanks!

Amazingly, everyone predicting Trump's political demise ended up looking like a fool. More amazingly still, idiots are still lining up to make the same mistake.

The Republicans have lost the popular vote in six of the last seven national elections. Just what is it that makes you think that goddam idiot Trump can change the trend?

Angry Leftists like you.

 

[jon_berzerk]

Then there's the next round of emails from Wikileaks.

As well as the debates, where she has to answer questions live and face the Donald's attacks. She can't even handle a press conference right now.

she will probably have another one of those weird seizures she has been having

 

[JimBowie1958]

A message from Donald Trump

I like a leader who doesnt have an ear to ear Used Car Salesman Smile plastered on his face 24/7.

 

[Skylar]

Voters have the choice between crooked Obama 2.0 in skirt and a Titan.
No chance for Hillary, democrats relax!

Will Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump become the next U.S. president? A political science professor thinks he has the answer.


Dr. Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University has developed a statistical formula that he claims has picked the winner of the presidential popular vote going back 100 years, except for the JFK-Nixon matchup in 1960.


He predicts that Donald Trump has an 87-percent probability of winning the election in November.

President Hillary Clinton Or Donald Trump? Professor Picks Winner With 87 Percent Certainty

Laughing....a statistical model to 'predict' elections that have already happened?

I don't think 'predict' means what you think it means. Helmut's record for predicting elections BEFORE they happen....not the best. He predicted Gore would easily win.

Economic models published by political scientists during the spring and summer uniformly pointed in this direction, with predictions estimating that the share of the popular vote would be anywhere
from 53–60 per cent in favour of Al Gore over George Bush.*


* The estimates made at the September annual meeting, 26 May 2000, of the American Political Science Association were 52.8% ( James Campbell, University of Buffalo), 52.9% (Brad Lockerbie, University of Georgia), 53.2% (Alan Abramowitz Emory University), 55% (Helmut Norpoth, SUNY), 55.2% (Christopher Wlezian, University of Houston) and 60.3% (Thomas Holbrook, University of Wisconsin).

And of course he was wrong. He insisted that Obama only had a 50% chance of winning by the barest majority in 2008. And of course Obama won easily, 365 to 173 and by almost 10 million votes.

Helmut's 'prediction with modification' should have been a red flag for you. It was for me.

 

[Rexx Taylor]

is Hillary still stuck at 0.042% chance of winning?

 

[Skylar]

is Hillary still stuck at 0.042% chance of winning?

Nate Silver who predicted the 2012 election down to each State *before* the election gives Hillary 80%.

You guys need to start fleshing out your voter fraud conspiracies.

 

[JimBowie1958]

is Hillary still stuck at 0.042% chance of winning?

That would be the more realistic element.

She is last centuries old fashion Billy Jean King T-shirt, worn, frail and torn....used by homeless people for toilet paper.

 

[Rexx Taylor]

what about gary johnson? 000.001%??

 

[Rexx Taylor]

Hillary Clinton has a 85% chance of actually being a man

 

[JimBowie1958]

what about gary johnson? 000.001%??

Gary What?

 

[JimBowie1958]

Hillary Clinton has a 85% chance of actually being a man

Which is why she and Mooshelle got along so well.

 

[Rexx Taylor]

Debbie Wasserman has a 95% chance of being deported back to Uranus where she came from.