Exit Polls: Half of Clinton Voters Will Not Support Obama

[Annie]

She is not going to continue until August. I give her a month...max. She has no money, no support, and the pundits and the Democratic machine are increasingly against her. I wouldn't be surprised if she lost WV, or at least it became a LOT closer than it is now.

Actually with her influx of 6.4 million, she does have play. She may lose all that follow and still drag it out to August.

 

[Larkinn]

Actually with her influx of 6.4 million, she does have play. She may lose all that follow and still drag it out to August.

She loaned herself 6.4 mil last month. Considering she knew that if she lost these primaries she was done, I doubt she saved much for WV. Possible she will loan herself more money, but her money worries are quite bad.

 

[jillian]

Jillian, she cannot really go after McCain until she slays Obama. She cannot really slay Obama until, well had to be done before yesterday. She's lost.

She can't afford to keep it going until August. She still has women voters but it isn't enough, unfortunately.

 

[jreeves]

She can't afford to keep it going until August. She still has women voters but it isn't enough, unfortunately.

I think it will last until the end of June, then the super delegates will hand the nomination to Obama. Even though Hillary will have won most of the swing states that the Democrats will need to win in the general election. All one has to do is look at the primary elections after Rev. Wright appeared on the scene, Hillary has pretty much dominated Obama. But that's what happens when you nominate a candidate that is unknown.

 

[Care4all]

Depends on whether she uses this time to go after McCain or continues to focus on Obama. If she trashes Obama and it goes to the convention, there will be hostility because people will perceive her as setting up for 4 years from now.

she took a new position today....no obama bashing.

he took a new position yesterday....no clinton bashing.

it's time to come together, they are both doing such....

both obama supporters and clinton supporters are passionate believers in their candidate....the next few weeks will be spent by both obama and clinton, to wind down the rhetoric with their supporters, say how wonderful everyone's been, collect more money, and hopefully a bunch more new democratic voters registered....

my prediction is forcing hillary to quit now is fruitless, she and her supporters gave their all and they deserve to be in it until a winner has officially won by the rules imo and her supporters will be disappointed if the obama supporters continue with the rhetoric of making her quit.... he needs hillary supporters in the general and she vowed today to fight tooth and nail to get him the presidency if he wins...

i believe she will....everyone will embrace such and then she will go on to be the Governor of NY !

care

 

[Larkinn]

I think it will last until the end of June, then the super delegates will hand the nomination to Obama. Even though Hillary will have won most of the swing states that the Democrats will need to win in the general election. All one has to do is look at the primary elections after Rev. Wright appeared on the scene, Hillary has pretty much dominated Obama. But that's what happens when you nominate a candidate that is unknown.

Like how she dominated in NC and Indiana? Or how she dominated in Mississippi or Vermont?

 

[jreeves]

Like how she dominated in NC and Indiana? Or how she dominated in Mississippi or Vermont?

All of those states are key swing states right? Hillary won Indiana in case you didn't notice. Are you equating NC and MS to OH and PA?? NC and MS are going red in the general election, whereas OH and PA could go either way. Wonder how Obama will do in PA and OH when he lost both in the primaries by double digits?

 

[Larkinn]

All of those states are key swing states right?

Only key swing states matter? Interesting view.

Hillary won Indiana in case you didn't notice.

Ah yes, her dominant victory of 20,000 votes

Are you equating NC and MS to OH and PA?? NC and MS are going red in the general election, whereas OH and PA could go either way. Wonder how Obama will do in PA and OH when he lost both in the primaries by double digits?

This isn't going to be a normal electoral map. In this election the Republicans don't have a lock on the south. NC is 22% black, if they turn out en masse that could turn the state on its head. Look at the polls for texas for an Obama/McCain matchup...McCain by 4 points? Really? The rumor is that Obama will go for a 50 state strategy, and he may well be able to do it.

 

[jreeves]

Only key swing states matter? Interesting view.



Ah yes, her dominant victory of 20,000 votes



This isn't going to be a normal electoral map. In this election the Republicans don't have a lock on the south. NC is 22% black, if they turn out en masse that could turn the state on its head. Look at the polls for texas for an Obama/McCain matchup...McCain by 4 points? Really? The rumor is that Obama will go for a 50 state strategy, and he may well be able to do it.

In the general election, yes swing states matter more than traditional locked up states. MS was before the Wright tapes exploded and Obama's response. It probably wouldn't have changed MS alot do to the racial demographics of the MS democratic primary. The very same could be said of Vermont as well, it was before the Wright explosion.

No, I didn't say Indiana was a dominant victory, I said she has pretty much dominated Obama since the Rev. Wright explosion.

Of course it's not going to be a normal electoral map...keep up that wishful thinking. Every candidate goes into the general election with a 50 state strategy but reality sits in. The candidate eventually has to focus on swing states in order to win the general election. As of right now, Obama is going to get swept out of the swing states.

 

[Larkinn]

In the general election, yes swing states matter more than traditional locked up states. MS was before the Wright tapes exploded and Obama's response. It probably wouldn't have changed MS alot do to the racial demographics of the MS democratic primary. The very same could be said of Vermont as well, it was before the Wright explosion.

The primaries since MS/Vermont have been:

Penn: (Hillary by a wide margin)
Guam: (Obama by a small margin)
North Carolina: (Obama by a wide margin)
Indiana: (Hillary by a small margin).

So considering they have each won 1 state by a large margin, and besides that pretty much been tied, how exactly is Hillary "dominating" again?

Of course it's not going to be a normal electoral map...keep up that wishful thinking. Every candidate goes into the general election with a 50 state strategy but reality sits in. The candidate eventually has to focus on swing states in order to win the general election. As of right now, Obama is going to get swept out of the swing states.

When was the last time we had a moderate Republican running against a Democrat who attracted this much attention? Democratic primaries have been breaking records every time, this is not going to be a normal election.

 

[jreeves]

The primaries since MS/Vermont have been:

Penn: (Hillary by a wide margin)
Guam: (Obama by a small margin)
North Carolina: (Obama by a wide margin)
Indiana: (Hillary by a small margin).

So considering they have each won 1 state by a large margin, and besides that pretty much been tied, how exactly is Hillary "dominating" again?



When was the last time we had a moderate Republican running against a Democrat who attracted this much attention? Democratic primaries have been breaking records every time, this is not going to be a normal election.

First off, Guam was a caucuse not a primary. Plus what good does Guam do you in the general election. North Carolina's racial demographic in the primary favors Obama heavily, which NC isn't a swing state as I have already eluded to. Hillary is dominating him in the swing states, Fl, MI, OH, PA, NJ....etc....

Depends what type of attention your talking about, negative or positive? He has been attracting a lot of negative attention since about mid-March. As far as an increase in voting in Democratic primaries, when was the last time a party primary this close??

 

[Larkinn]

First off, Guam was a caucuse not a primary.

Oh, well then it just doesn't matter

Plus what good does Guam do you in the general election. North Carolina's racial demographic in the primary favors Obama heavily, which NC isn't a swing state as I have already eluded to. Hillary is dominating him in the swing states, Fl, MI, OH, PA, NJ....etc....

http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=26242

McCain and Obama are both polling at 47% in North Carolina. But somehow its not a swing state?

As I said, this isn't going to be like past elections. There hasn't been a moderate Republican running in quite some time, thats going to shift the race. And there has never been a black Democrat NOR a Democrat who has gained this much attention, that will shift the race as well.

Oh...and all of those states were before the Wright controversy. So much for your theory about Hillary dominating Obama since the Wright controversy. Oh, except for Pa...as I stated before.

Depends what type of attention your talking about, negative or positive? He has been attracting a lot of negative attention since about mid-March. As far as an increase in voting in Democratic primaries, when was the last time a party primary this close??

Considering he managed to sew up the nomination AFTER the Wright stuff came out, I'd say the pundit class and their obsession with Wright hasn't done much to effect his popularity.

Yes, the increase in in voting is because the race is so close. Which is why there have been record turnouts since the very first primary/caucuses .

I know you have some weird obsession with Obama, but he won, Democrats had record turnout, and this is going to be an electoral map far different than one we've seen in quite some time.

I'm looking forward too it. Its about time states other than ohio, Pa, and Florida get some play.

 

[jreeves]

Oh, well then it just doesn't matter



http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=26242

McCain and Obama are both polling at 47% in North Carolina. But somehow its not a swing state?

As I said, this isn't going to be like past elections. There hasn't been a moderate Republican running in quite some time, thats going to shift the race. And there has never been a black Democrat NOR a Democrat who has gained this much attention, that will shift the race as well.

Oh...and all of those states were before the Wright controversy. So much for your theory about Hillary dominating Obama since the Wright controversy. Oh, except for Pa...as I stated before.



Considering he managed to sew up the nomination AFTER the Wright stuff came out, I'd say the pundit class and their obsession with Wright hasn't done much to effect his popularity.

Yes, the increase in in voting is because the race is so close. Which is why there have been record turnouts since the very first primary/caucuses .

I know you have some weird obsession with Obama, but he won, Democrats had record turnout, and this is going to be an electoral map far different than one we've seen in quite some time.

I'm looking forward too it. Its about time states other than ohio, Pa, and Florida get some play.

We will definetly see, if NC is in play as well as other locks.
Guess if you believe in polling then you believe that a lot Hillary supporters are going to jump to the MCcain train once she drops? Polls recently have been pretty inaccurate. Yes he sew up the nomination after the Wright explosion due to a large number of blacks voting for him in NC. Those demographics don't translate to states that he needs to win in a general election.

 

[Larkinn]

We will definetly see, if NC is in play as well as other locks.

It will be. You just aren't able to comprehend the paradign shift in electoral politics that is happening this year.

Guess if you believe in polling then you believe that a lot Hillary supporters are going to jump to the MCcain train once she drops?

Obviously. Some won't, but far and away the majority will. Clinton will drop out and endorse Obama and her supporters will go to him. At the beginning of this mess there were a LOT of Democrats who switched back and forth between them, myself included. A lot of bad blood has been spilled since then, but they have time to make it up before the general.

Polls recently have been pretty inaccurate.

Not really.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/indiana.html

For Indiana...last Zogby was within MoE.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

For North Carolina...last Zogby was within MoE.

Yes he sew up the nomination after the Wright explosion due to a large number of blacks voting for him in NC. Those demographics don't translate to states that he needs to win in a general election.

Oh, well blacks aren't people so they shouldn't be counted, right?

 

[RetiredGySgt]

It will be. You just aren't able to comprehend the paradign shift in electoral politics that is happening this year.



Obviously. Some won't, but far and away the majority will. Clinton will drop out and endorse Obama and her supporters will go to him. At the beginning of this mess there were a LOT of Democrats who switched back and forth between them, myself included. A lot of bad blood has been spilled since then, but they have time to make it up before the general.



Not really.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/indiana.html

For Indiana...last Zogby was within MoE.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

For North Carolina...last Zogby was within MoE.



Oh, well blacks aren't people so they shouldn't be counted, right?

13 percent of the population is not going to get anyone elected. But do dream on.

 

[Larkinn]

13 percent of the population is not going to get anyone elected. But do dream on.

Wait....so you mean in 2000, it wasn't Florida that determined the difference between Bush and Gore? Approximately 16 million people lived there in 2000. 290 million in America or so. You do the math.

Elections in this country aren't won or lost by who decides to vote for who, they are won or lost on who comes out to vote. Democrats have a candidate that 13% of this country will vote for and turn out in droves for, all around the country and that are populous in states that have never been Democratic before. This election is going to shake up the electoral map.

 

[jreeves]

It will be. You just aren't able to comprehend the paradign shift in electoral politics that is happening this year.



Obviously. Some won't, but far and away the majority will. Clinton will drop out and endorse Obama and her supporters will go to him. At the beginning of this mess there were a LOT of Democrats who switched back and forth between them, myself included. A lot of bad blood has been spilled since then, but they have time to make it up before the general.



Not really.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/indiana.html

For Indiana...last Zogby was within MoE.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

For North Carolina...last Zogby was within MoE.



Oh, well blacks aren't people so they shouldn't be counted, right?

Trying to play games with polling numbers huh? Pick one poll that suits your argument? Look at all of the polls prior to the primary in NC, they are all over the place, anywhere from 4% to 14%. That's a big difference.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

Then IN was the same thing anywhere from Obama by 2% to Hillary by 12% that's a huge difference too, a 14 point swing.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html

I never stated blacks shouldn't be counted, I said their vote in a democratic primary in NC won't project to a general election, idiot.

 

[Larkinn]

Trying to play games with polling numbers huh? Pick one poll that suits your argument? Look at all of the polls prior to the primary in NC, they are all over the place, anywhere from 4% to 14%. That's a big difference.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

Sorry, I try and focus on reputable pollsters.

I never stated blacks shouldn't be counted, I said their vote in a democratic primary in NC won't project to a general election, idiot.

Oh, and why is that? They came out full force against another Democrat, you think they'll all just stay home when its against a Republican?

By the way...congrats to McCain in North Carolina...he got 76% of the Republican vote

 

[jreeves]

Sorry, I try and focus on reputable pollsters.



Oh, and why is that? They came out full force against another Democrat, you think they'll all just stay home when its against a Republican?

By the way...congrats to McCain in North Carolina...he got 76% of the Republican vote

Lmao.... What makes the other pollsters not reputable?

No, I don't think 13% of the population will determine the election. I think the full 100% of the population will determine the election. In that 100% of the population, 87% is not African American so common sense would tell you that they would have a larger influence than 13%. Can't comprehend that?

 

[Larkinn]

No, I don't think 13% of the population will determine the election. I think the full 100% of the population will determine the election.

Wait, I thought that only the swing states mattered? Now you are saying 100% matters? Make up your mind.

In that 100% of the population, 87% is not African American so common sense would tell you that they would have a larger influence than 13%. Can't comprehend that?

Which is why Cuban Americans represent a tiny fraction of the population, but get pandered too because Florida has been a swing state for a while, and they can swing any election?

Seriously? You really don't get how demographics can change the election? Not everyones vote is worth the same amount. I voted in Cali in 2004, my vote was worth essentially nothing. Someone who voted in Florida or Ohio or PA had a much more important vote.

But you know all of this, since you mentioned swing states before. Your just doing anything you can to pretend that Obama can't win. Even stealing stuff from the Hillary playbook.