McRocket
Gold Member
- Apr 4, 2018
- 5,031
- 707
- Goldman predicts 2.5 percent and 2.2 percent growth in the first two quarters of 2019, respectively, but then just 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent real GDP growth in the final two quarters.
- "We expect tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus to be the key drivers of the deceleration," wrote the bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius.
- But Goldman believes the U.S. will skirt a recession next year.
"Growth is likely to slow significantly next year, from a recent pace of 3.5 percent-plus to roughly our 1.75 percent estimate of potential by end-2019," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist for the investment bank, in a note to clients on Sunday. "We expect tighter financial conditions and a fading fiscal stimulus to be the key drivers of the deceleration."
The bank sees the economy expanding at 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of this year, down from 3.5 percent last quarter. Real GDP growth will come in at 2.5 percent again in the first quarter of 2019, but then will slow to 2.2 percent, 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent in the next three quarters, respectively.'
Goldman Sachs believes the US economy will slow to a crawl next year
Interesting.