Nyvin
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- Sep 23, 2013
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- #41
But the pubs will surely get SD,WV and MT. That already puts them at 48 I think. If they get AK, AR and GA as you say then that puts them over 50. They might get KY as well which will put them over. Angus King said he will caucus with pubs and I suspect Orman will too. That gives them majority by a wider margin. Any other surprise states like NH, CO or IA puts them well over. Debates are coming up so polling after that will tell the bigger story.47 to 45 (GOP to Dem)
Red: Arkansas, Alaska, Georgia
Blue: Colorado, IA, New Hampshire, North Carolina
Independent: Kansas (Dorothy brought magic )
I think Orman will caucus with the pubs, tell Cruz "you, dude, are an asshole) and force McConnell to the center.
So once again Boehner gets to rein in the few TPM yahoos that will be left in his caucus.
GA and KY aren't pickups...they're defending the seats.
King hasn't said he'll caucus with the GOP, he said he'll caucus with the majority. Orman and King are both left of center (particularly Orman surprisingly...). I'm finding it hard to believe they'll caucus with a party they have so little in common with.
Currently the most likely route for the GOP to get a majority is SD> WV> MT> LA> AR> IA in order of likeliness to win.
Those six states are what the GOP should be banking on for Nov 4th. The reason CO and AK are harder then IA is the incumbents in CO and AK have better staying power then an open seat like IA.
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