SSDD
Gold Member
- Nov 6, 2012
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No, guy, I look at what 97% of the people in the field who have degrees in it say.
Like I said...that is a lie. You don't look at any science at all. You take the word of people who share your politics who tell you what the science says. You have never actually looked at any of the science.
Want to talk about climate modeling? Climate modeling is the life blood of climate science. It is where most of the "science" actually comes from...model results..and then people tell you about this science but don't bother to tell you that it comes from models..and not actual observations.
For example:
Published in Climate Dynamics. Are you claiming that the Koch brothers own that journal and determine what goes in it?
May common model biases reduce CMIP5ās ability to simulate the recent Pacific La NiƱa-like cooling?
Clip: "
Over the recent three decades sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific has decreased, which helps reduce the rate of global warming. However, most CMIP5 model simulations with historical radiative forcing do not reproduce this Pacific La NiƱa-like cooling. Based on the assumption of āperfectā models, previous studies have suggested that errors in simulated internal climate variations and/or external radiative forcing may cause the discrepancy between the multi-model simulations and the observationā¦. Based on the total 126 realizations of the 38 CMIP5 model Historical simulations, the results show that none of the 126 model historical realizations reproduce the intensity of the observed eastern Pacific [1981-2010] cooling and only one simulation produces a weak cooling (ā0.007 Ā°C per decade).ā
Here is one published in the Cryosphere. Want to claim that the koch brothers own the journal of the European Geosciences Union?
TC - Peer review - Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models
Clip: āRecent studies note a signiļ¬cant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. ā¦ We ļ¬nd that the recent summer GBI increase lies well outside the range of modelled past reconstructions (Historical scenario) and future GBI projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The models consistently project a future decrease in GBI (linked to an increase in NAO), which highlights a likely key deļ¬ciency of current climate models if the recently-observed circulation changes continue to persist. Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream, e.g. over Northwest Europe, this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies [ā¦] as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models.ā
This one is published in the International Journal of Climate Chante Stragegies and Management. Are you claiming that the koch brothers own this one too?
Challenging the scientific basis of the Paris climate agreement | Emerald Insight
āThe temperature effects of the water and CO2 are based on spectral analysis calculations, which show that water is 11.8 times stronger a GH gas than CO2 in the present climate. ā¦ There are essential features in the long-term trends of temperature and TPW [total precipitable water], which are calculated and depicted as mean values 11 years running. The temperature has increased about 0.4Ā°C since 1979 and has now paused at this level. The long-term trend of TPW [total precipitable water] effects shows that it has slightly decreased during the temperature-increasing period from 1979 to 2000. This means that the absolute water amount in the atmosphere does not follow the temperature increase, but is practically constant, reacting only very slightly to the long-term trends of temperature changes. The assumption that relative humidity is constant and that it amplifies the GH gas changes over the longer periods by doubling the warming effects finds no grounds based on the behavior of the TWP [total precipitable water] trend. The positive water feedback exists only during the short-term ENSO events (ā¤4 years).ā
āThe validity of the IPCC model can be tested against the observed temperature. It turns out that the IPCC-calculated temperature increase for 2016 is 1.27Ā°C, which is 49 per cent higher than the observed 0.85Ā°C. This validity test means that the IPCC climate forcing model using the radiative forcing value of CO2 is too sensitive for CO2 increase, and the CS [climate sensitivity] parameter, including the positive water feedback doubling the GH gas effects, does not exist.ā
āThe CO2 emissions from 2000 onward represent about one-third of the total emissions since 1750, but the temperature has not increased, and it has paused at the present level. This is worthy proof that the IPCCās climate model has overestimated human-induced causes and has probably underestimated natural causes like the sunās activity changes, considering the historical temperatures during the past 2000 years.ā
āThe RF [radiative forcing] value for the CO2 concentration of 560 ppm is 2.16 Wmā2 according to equation (3), which is 42 per cent smaller than 3.7 Wmā2 used by the IPCC. The same study of Ollila (2014) shows that the CS [climate sensitivity] parameter Ī» is 0.27 K/(Wmā2), which means that there is no water feedback. Using this Ī» value, equation (3) gives a TCS [transient climate sensitivity] value of 0.6Ā°C only. This same result is also reported by Harde (2014) using the spectral analysis method. ā¦There are both theoretical- and measurement-based studies showing results that can be explained only by the fact that there is no positive water feedback. This result reduces the CS [climate sensitivity] by 50 per cent. Some research studies show that the RF [radiative forcing] value of carbon dioxide is considerably smaller than the commonly used RF value, according to the equation of Myhre et al. (1998). Because of these two causes, the critical studies show a TCS [transient climate sensitivity] of about 0.6Ā°C instead of 1.9Ā°C by the IPCC, a 200 per cent difference.ā
This one was published in the International Journal of Remote Sensing. DO the Koch brothers own this one also?
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01431161.2018.1444293
Clip: āAll datasets produce high correlations of anomalies versus independent observations from radiosondes (balloons), but differ somewhat in the metric of most interest, the linear trend beginning in 1979. The trend is an indicator of the response of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas concentrations and other forcings, and so is critical to understanding the climate. The satellite results indicate a range of near-global (+0.07 to +0.13Ā°C decadeā1) [ā¦] trends (1979ā2016), and suggestions are presented to account for these differences. We show evidence that MSUs on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationās satellites (NOAA-12 and ā14, 1990ā2001+) contain spurious warming, especially noticeable in three of the four satellite datasets.ā
āComparisons with radiosonde datasets independently adjusted for inhomogeneities and Reanalyses suggest the actual tropical (20Ā°S-20Ā°N) trend is +0.10 Ā± 0.03Ā°C decadeā1. This tropical result is over a factor of two less than the trend projected from the average of the IPCC climate model simulations for this same period (+0.27Ā°C decadeā1). ā¦ Because the model trends are on average highly significantly more positive and with a pattern in which their warmest feature appears in the latent-heat release region of the atmosphere, we would hypothesize that a misrepresentation of the basic model physics of the tropical hydrologic cycle (i.e. water vapour, precipitation physics and cloud feedbacks) is a likely candidate.ā
This one was published in Nature Climate Change. A very well respected journal among climate scientists...Do you believe it is a koch brothers holding as well?
Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics | Nature Climate Change
Clip: āHere there is a dynamical gap in our understanding. While we have conceptual models of how weather systems form and can predict their evolution over days to weeks, we do not have theories that can adequately explain the reasons for an extreme cold or warm, or wet or dry, winter at continental scales. More importantly, we do not have the ability to credibly predict such states. Likewise, we can build and run complex models of the Earth system, but we do not have adequate enough understanding of the processes and mechanisms to be able to quantitatively evaluate the predictions and projections they produce, or to understand why different models give different answers. ā¦ The global warming āhiatusā provides an example of a climate event potentially related to inter-basin teleconnections. While decadal climate variations are expected, the magnitude of the recent event was unforeseen. A decadal period of intensified trade winds in the Pacific and cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has been identified as a leading candidate mechanism for the global slowdown in warming.ā
Here is one published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America...go ahead...tell me that you believe the National Academy is a koch brothers holding....prove that you are a complete idiot...
Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data
āThe models underestimate the large decadal (2002ā2014) trends in water storage relative to GRACE satellites, both decreasing trends related to human intervention and climate and increasing trends related primarily to climate variations. The poor agreement between models and GRACE underscores the challenges remaining for global models to capture human or climate impacts on global water storage trends. ā¦ Increasing TWSA [total water storage anomalies] trends are found primarily in nonirrigated basins, mostly in humid regions, and may be related to climate variations. Models also underestimate median GRACE increasing trends(1.6ā2.1 km3/y) by up to a factor of ā¼8 in GHWRMs [global hydrological and water resource models] (0.3ā0.6 km3/y). Underestimation of GRACE-derived TWSA increasing trends is much greater for LSMs [global land surface models], with four of the five LSMs [global land surface models] yielding opposite trends (i.e., median negative rather than positive trends).ā
āIncreasing GRACE trends are also found in surrounding basins, with most models yielding negative trends. Models greatly underestimate the increasing trends in Africa, particularly in southern Africa. .. TWSA trends from GRACE in northeast Asia are generally increasing, but many models show decreasing trends, particularly in the Yenisei. ā¦ Subtracting the modeled human intervention contribution from the total land water storage contribution from GRACE results in an estimated climate-driven contribution of ā0.44 to ā0.38 mm/y. Therefore, the magnitude of the estimated climate contribution to GMSL [global mean sea level] is twice that of the human contribution and opposite in sign. While many previous studies emphasize the large contribution of human intervention to GMSL [global mean sea level], it has been more than counteracted by climate-driven storage increase on land over the past decade.ā
āGRACE-positive TWSA trends (71 km3/y) contribute negatively (ā0.2 mm/y) to GMSL, slowing the rate of rise of GMSL, whereas models contribute positively to GMSL, increasing the rate of rise of GMSLā
I could go on and on with published papers in respected journals finding that climate models are abject failures...and climate models are, again, as I pointed out, the life blood of climate sceince.
I ignore shills who aren't scientists who are more upset about what the policy results would need to be to look at the actual science.
No...You ignore science that doesn't support what the people you trust have told you what the science says...you ignore peer reviewed, scientific literature published in respected journals if it disagrees with what you have been told about what the climate science says.
You prove that you have never looked at the science every time you fail to support your claims with anything even resembling published science while everything I have claimed has been supported by peer reviewed, published sceince..which you deny out of hand because it is different from what you believe. You seem to be the true denier here. I provide you with actual science to support my position and you clap your hands over your ears and impotently yell LA LA LA LA at the top of your lungs...
People are watching you fail miserably to support your position..keep up the good work...People like you are the best tools us skeptics have to get the message out regarding the abject weakness of the science claiming that AGW is a real and present danger.