Has Powell and Co ushered in a possible recession?

[berg80]

Yields on the long bonds dropped precipitously today, a continuation of a decline from their peak following the inflationary spiral caused by the post COVID supply chain shock, when jobless claims came in higher than expected. Consumer oriented companies have been reporting a slowdown in spending for over a month now. Manufacturing ISM came in lower than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Thursday, as fresh data stoked concerns over the state of the U.S. economy.

The 30-stock Dow dropped 313 points, or nearly 0.8%. The S&P 500 shed 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.4%.

Initial jobless claims rose to 249,000 for the week ended in July 27, higher than a Dow Jones forecast of 235,000. The ISM manufacturing index came in at 46.8, adding to a broader picture of slowing economic activity.

That data follows the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged and Chair Jerome Powell signaling a September rate is on the table. Yields fell Thursday as investors digested Powell’s comments, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reaching its lowest level since Feb. 2.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Fed chair Powell says a rate cut is on the table for Sept. Meaning the Fed is once again behind the curve. He has essentially said a recession is acceptable if that's what is necessary to get inflation to the Fed's 2% target. He'd rather put you out of your job than have you pay a little more for good and services.

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/job...nemployment-rate-rises-to-4point3percent.html

Once again the Fed got it wrong. It left rates too high too long.

Who will be blamed? Harris.

 

[1srelluc]

LOL....OP tries to hide shitty jobs report by lamely projecting leftist dem fail onto Powell.

 

[Dekster]

It doesn't matter who gets blamed. When you are cutting demand i.e. "inflation", you are going to have to raise unemployment. There is no such thing as a soft landing for those being tossed out the side of the plane.

 

[Mac1958]

Yields on the long bonds dropped precipitously today, a continuation of a decline from their peak following the inflationary spiral caused by the post COVID supply chain shock, when jobless claims came in higher than expected. Consumer oriented companies have been reporting a slowdown in spending for over a month now. Manufacturing ISM came in lower than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Thursday, as fresh data stoked concerns over the state of the U.S. economy.

The 30-stock Dow dropped 313 points, or nearly 0.8%. The S&P 500 shed 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.4%.

Initial jobless claims rose to 249,000 for the week ended in July 27, higher than a Dow Jones forecast of 235,000. The ISM manufacturing index came in at 46.8, adding to a broader picture of slowing economic activity.

That data follows the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged and Chair Jerome Powell signaling a September rate is on the table. Yields fell Thursday as investors digested Powell’s comments, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reaching its lowest level since Feb. 2.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Fed chair Powell says a rate cut is on the table for Sept. Meaning the Fed is once again behind the curve. He has essentially said a recession is acceptable if that's what is necessary to get inflation to the Fed's 2% target. He'd rather put you out of your job than have you pay a little more for good and services.

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/job...nemployment-rate-rises-to-4point3percent.html

Once again the Fed got it wrong. It left rates too high too long.

Who will be blamed? Harris.

Tough to say. Nothing is broken, so this could just be a healthy correction. We'll see what happens to tech and small caps when the Fed starts cutting rates. They're both pretty fucking dependent on that.

Lots of slowing down, but at the moment it looks like a mild recession at most.

At the moment.

 

[berg80]

It doesn't matter who gets blamed. When you are cutting demand i.e. "inflation", you are going to have to raise unemployment. There is no such thing as a soft landing for those being tossed out the side of the plane.

Of course it matters who gets blamed. We have an election in a few months. The Biden admin has been falsely blamed for inflation and now it will be blamed for the economic slowdown brought about by high interest rates.

 

[berg80]

Nothing is broken, so this could just be a healthy correction.

There are corrections when the market gets too hot and there are declines based on an impending economic slowdown. I think this is the latter. There is a rotation out of tech and in to interest rate sensitive stocks and defensive stocks that get bought when a recession is a concern.

 

[1srelluc]

Of course it matters who gets blamed. We have an election in a few months. The Biden admin has been falsely blamed for inflation and now it will be blamed for the economic slowdown brought about by high interest rates.

As well as it should be.....Pain is the only thing leftists understand.....Of course that does not affect the leftist leaders and their oligarch/Hollywood fellow travelers.....Just the "lesser dems" and anyone else in the way.

 

[Mac1958]

There are corrections when the market gets too hot and there are declines based on an impending economic slowdown. I think this is the latter. There is a rotation out of tech and in to interest rate sensitive stocks and defensive stocks that get bought when a recession is a concern.

Yeah, that's possible. If those sectors are too weak, lower rates won't really matter. It might give their stock prices a temporary boost, but that's about it.

If we see their capex dropping, that'll be a bad sign.

 

[Dekster]

Of course it matters who gets blamed. We have an election in a few months. The Biden admin has been falsely blamed for inflation and now it will be blamed for the economic slowdown brought about by high interest rates.

Well it is also falsely gets credit for the record growth that was a mere return to normalcy after all the shutdowns that any president would have experienced in the same scenario, so live by the Post hoc, die by the Post hoc as far as the politics go. In the end, however, it does not change that soft landings are a mythical beast. The Loch Ness monster has been seen more times.

 

[Couchpotato]

Of course it matters who gets blamed. We have an election in a few months. The Biden admin has been falsely blamed for inflation and now it will be blamed for the economic slowdown brought about by high interest rates.

Why shouldn't they shoulder the blame? They certainly would have taken the credit had there been low inflation. They took credit for all the jobs that were "created" by everyone going back to work after COVID which had nothing to do with Biden or Harris or anyone else in the administration. People just went back to work, not they should have ever been not working int he first place but that's another topic. Right, wrong or indifferent Presidents get blamed for the shit that happens while they are in office.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Yields on the long bonds dropped precipitously today, a continuation of a decline from their peak following the inflationary spiral caused by the post COVID supply chain shock, when jobless claims came in higher than expected. Consumer oriented companies have been reporting a slowdown in spending for over a month now. Manufacturing ISM came in lower than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Thursday, as fresh data stoked concerns over the state of the U.S. economy.

The 30-stock Dow dropped 313 points, or nearly 0.8%. The S&P 500 shed 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.4%.

Initial jobless claims rose to 249,000 for the week ended in July 27, higher than a Dow Jones forecast of 235,000. The ISM manufacturing index came in at 46.8, adding to a broader picture of slowing economic activity.

That data follows the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged and Chair Jerome Powell signaling a September rate is on the table. Yields fell Thursday as investors digested Powell’s comments, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reaching its lowest level since Feb. 2.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Fed chair Powell says a rate cut is on the table for Sept. Meaning the Fed is once again behind the curve. He has essentially said a recession is acceptable if that's what is necessary to get inflation to the Fed's 2% target. He'd rather put you out of your job than have you pay a little more for good and services.

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/job...nemployment-rate-rises-to-4point3percent.html

Once again the Fed got it wrong. It left rates too high too long.

Who will be blamed? Harris.

Once again the Fed got it wrong. It left rates too high too long.

After leaving rates too low for too long, that's what happens.

 

[berg80]

Yeah, that's possible. If those sectors are too weak, lower rates won't really matter. It might give their stock prices a temporary boost, but that's about it.

If we see their capex dropping, that'll be a bad sign.

Tech stocks typically rise when interest rates go lower. The theory being future earnings will be worth more in a less inflationary environment. Right now tech stocks are a source of funds for stocks that do well during a slowdown. A slowdown induced by the Fed being too cautious about lowering rates even though the data has been showing a slowdown is coming for over a month.

 

[berg80]

Once again the Fed got it wrong. It left rates too high too long.

After leaving rates too low for too long, that's what happens.

Correct. The Fed and the post COVID supply chain shock being the proximate cause of inflation.........not Biden.

 

[struth]

Yep, another crappy jobs report from the Harris/Xiden admin.

 

[berg80]

Dow down 950. The market thinks the Sept. cut implied by Powell is too late.

 

[berg80]

Yep, another crappy jobs report from the Harris/Xiden admin.

Thank you for providing exactly the kind of idiocy I expected from someone with the IQ of a gnat.

 

[struth]

Thank you for providing exactly the kind of idiocy I expected from someone with the IQ of a gnat.

wow, your OP said it was crappy...

 

[Care4all]

Mortgage seekers will be happy with the lower interest rates, I suppose.....?

 

[Care4all]

Ride it through, look for good buys....as with all recessions......

 

[BluesLegend]

Yep, another crappy jobs report from the Harris/Xiden admin.

Here comes the Harris recession.