How is austerity doing in Europe

[itfitzme]

I can pretty much predict what I will find. I've discovered, in the past few years, this character on the net. *They all espouse a perticular position and everytime I research it, I find that the data says otherwise. *It started back in '09 when I started reading about global warming. *They are loud, rant on endlessly, and are repeatedly wrong. *It is the oddest thing. They are working against themselves. *I learn a lot from it, but it seems like a wierd way to go about it.

The Farm Bill was defeated yesterday. *I know some people on food stamps. *One is a 53 year old female who was in a head on collision when she was 29. *In a few moments, her physical age went from 29 to 69. *She's in chronic pain. She suffered; a concusion w brain damage; jaw broken in three places; her front teeth were knocked out; subsequent surgury to align her jaw resulted in slow bone loss so she eventually lost all her teeth; lacerated liver; ruptured spleen; snapped femur; multiple bones in her feet were broken; cartilige in all of her joints were damaged so her ankle collapsed and was fused multiple times; the miniscus in her knee and hip eventually developed tears, a litte flap in the center that would get jammed up; the disks in the lower back vertibrate were compressed causing contant leg pain; the snapped femur shortened her leg so her hips are cocked when she walks, which causes stress on everything else and more pain; The lymphatic system was cut up from the accident so fluid doesn't drain well causing extreme swelling if she stands for more than 15 minutes; the loss of the spleen and bone marrow in her femur devistated her*immune system so she is sick with a sinus infection 30% of the time. *That is the tip of the iceburg, the direct affects. It doesn't cover the indirect effects.

She was an accountant, a hard worker. Being young, her contribution to OASDI was minimal so her disability income is minimum. *After expenses housing, utilities, food, Medicare Part C and D insurance premium she is left with very little. If not for food stamps, she wouldn't have enough to eat. *So she would be one of these "takers", the ones that the defeated Farm Bill was meant to address by reducing the SNAP program.

This is part of what I see, personally, in austerity. *

 

[Rshermr]

Thanks for all of your efforts in that "different direction". It is, at any time, great to see actual economic thought expressed from folk who have a strong background in the subject.
What I have learned, over the years of reading a lot about the neo-cons is that they are a relatively small (15 - 20)% of the population, who have similar charactoristics. I have had friends over time to help me understand them. And a brother who also helps me understand them. Basically, these are folks who want to be told what to do, and where and when to do it. They are looking for someone to hate. And they NEVER, EVER question what they are told by their chosen leaders. They are generally not the brightest bulbs on the tree, but they believe themselves to have the answers. And I mean strenuously believe that they have the answers. They are not into education.
They follow the talking points of the very far right republicans, who are the beneficiaries of a lot of money to pump out dogma. Funny. And the neo-con will be those spouting that dogma, as though it is the undisputed truth, and can not be questioned.
They will spout the talking points and when questioned about the factuality of that dogma, will quickly drop into personal attacks and insults. They have no real ability of conversation. There is only one answer to any question in their mind. And to them, it is the truth.
So, the rational person tries to find truth through research. The neo-con BELIEVES WHAT HE WANTS TO BELIEVE. Odd, but true.
Who runs the neo-con mind?? A relatively few very wealthy conservative minded folks. These individuals want more wealth and power. They are the one's out there pushing the libertarian ideals. They are the ones funding and running the tea party organizations. And these folks want control and more wealth.
So, sorry for the wordiness of this post. But I have spend tons of time over the past 30+ years trying to understand the mental disease that the neo con possesses.
So, I always apply what I call the Koch test, where Koch is either of the Koch brothers who are among the most well known of the leadership of this group of people, the neo-cons. If it is good for him, these con's will support it, whatever it happens to be. Things like:
destroying unions to lower workers wages - more profit for them
eliminate any regulations on business - eliminates their need to consider costs to others
eliminate global warming concerns - cuts costs of their activities and lets them do as they please
they want to cut taxes, always - increases their profits

And many, many other issues.
So, if it passes the Koch test, the neo-con will support it. And the neo-cons on this site are many and obvious.

 

[Kimura]

I can pretty much predict what I will find. I've discovered, in the past few years, this character on the net. *They all espouse a perticular position and everytime I research it, I find that the data says otherwise. *It started back in '09 when I started reading about global warming. *They are loud, rant on endlessly, and are repeatedly wrong. *It is the oddest thing. They are working against themselves. *I learn a lot from it, but it seems like a wierd way to go about it.

The Farm Bill was defeated yesterday. *I know some people on food stamps. *One is a 53 year old female who was in a head on collision when she was 29. *In a few moments, her physical age went from 29 to 69. *She's in chronic pain. She suffered; a concusion w brain damage; jaw broken in three places; her front teeth were knocked out; subsequent surgury to align her jaw resulted in slow bone loss so she eventually lost all her teeth; lacerated liver; ruptured spleen; snapped femur; multiple bones in her feet were broken; cartilige in all of her joints were damaged so her ankle collapsed and was fused multiple times; the miniscus in her knee and hip eventually developed tears, a litte flap in the center that would get jammed up; the disks in the lower back vertibrate were compressed causing contant leg pain; the snapped femur shortened her leg so her hips are cocked when she walks, which causes stress on everything else and more pain; The lymphatic system was cut up from the accident so fluid doesn't drain well causing extreme swelling if she stands for more than 15 minutes; the loss of the spleen and bone marrow in her femur devistated her*immune system so she is sick with a sinus infection 30% of the time. *That is the tip of the iceburg, the direct affects. It doesn't cover the indirect effects.

She was an accountant, a hard worker. Being young, her contribution to OASDI was minimal so her disability income is minimum. *After expenses housing, utilities, food, Medicare Part C and D insurance premium she is left with very little. If not for food stamps, she wouldn't have enough to eat. *So she would be one of these "takers", the ones that the defeated Farm Bill was meant to address by reducing the SNAP program.

This is part of what I see, personally, in austerity. *

My heart goes out to your friend, it really does. When I hear stories like this, I can't believe this type of suffering occurs in the wealthiest country in the world.

I have a ninety-year-old grandfather, so I deal with Medicare, supplemental insurance, and caregivers all the time. Luckily, I have the financial means, along with my brother, to pay for a full-time caregiver. My mother is from Italy, I have family there, and I attended university in Milan. When I tell my family members in Italy how the elderly and disabled are treated in this country, they simply refuse to believe me.

If we were a rational country, we'd double SSI payments and make Medicare available to everyone. Food stamps in the US only cover a pittance, it truly is subsistence living.

 

[Rshermr]

I can pretty much predict what I will find. I've discovered, in the past few years, this character on the net. *They all espouse a perticular position and everytime I research it, I find that the data says otherwise. *It started back in '09 when I started reading about global warming. *They are loud, rant on endlessly, and are repeatedly wrong. *It is the oddest thing. They are working against themselves. *I learn a lot from it, but it seems like a wierd way to go about it.

The Farm Bill was defeated yesterday. *I know some people on food stamps. *One is a 53 year old female who was in a head on collision when she was 29. *In a few moments, her physical age went from 29 to 69. *She's in chronic pain. She suffered; a concusion w brain damage; jaw broken in three places; her front teeth were knocked out; subsequent surgury to align her jaw resulted in slow bone loss so she eventually lost all her teeth; lacerated liver; ruptured spleen; snapped femur; multiple bones in her feet were broken; cartilige in all of her joints were damaged so her ankle collapsed and was fused multiple times; the miniscus in her knee and hip eventually developed tears, a litte flap in the center that would get jammed up; the disks in the lower back vertibrate were compressed causing contant leg pain; the snapped femur shortened her leg so her hips are cocked when she walks, which causes stress on everything else and more pain; The lymphatic system was cut up from the accident so fluid doesn't drain well causing extreme swelling if she stands for more than 15 minutes; the loss of the spleen and bone marrow in her femur devistated her*immune system so she is sick with a sinus infection 30% of the time. *That is the tip of the iceburg, the direct affects. It doesn't cover the indirect effects.

She was an accountant, a hard worker. Being young, her contribution to OASDI was minimal so her disability income is minimum. *After expenses housing, utilities, food, Medicare Part C and D insurance premium she is left with very little. If not for food stamps, she wouldn't have enough to eat. *So she would be one of these "takers", the ones that the defeated Farm Bill was meant to address by reducing the SNAP program.

This is part of what I see, personally, in austerity. *

My heart goes out to your friend, it really does. When I hear stories like this, I can't believe this type of suffering occurs in the wealthiest country in the world.

I have a ninety-year-old grandfather, so I deal with Medicare, supplemental insurance, and caregivers all the time. Luckily, I have the financial means, along with my brother, to pay for a full-time caregiver. My mother is from Italy, I have family there, and I attended university in Milan. When I tell my family members in Italy how the elderly and disabled are treated in this country, they simply refuse to believe me.

If we were a rational country, we'd double SSI payments and make Medicare available to everyone. Food stamps in the US only cover a pittance, it truly is subsistence living.

Yes. I agree completely. The funny thing is that the World Health Organization produced analysis, country by country, of health care outcomes and cost. Last I saw was around 2001, I believe. And year in and year out, from the time I first started following their reports, the US led the world in health care costs per citizen, and was about mid way among all countries in health care outcome. Among what they considered the 35 industrialized nations, we were about twice as expensive, as the average country, more expensive than any other among those nations, and in the bottom third in terms of outcome.
Now, oddly enough, a major attack was made on those reports by those supporting the health care industry (read insurance companies). And the reports stopped. It is now harder to get comparative numbers, as they wanted. But when you dig deep, nothing has changed for the better.
All the best to your friend, ifitzme. And yes, to others that I talk to from around the world, our health care is really hard to believe.

 

[itfitzme]

Thanks.

Your note that "It is now harder to get comparative numbers, as they wanted. But when you dig deep, nothing has changed for the better." brings up the consideration of objective measures. *

To answer the question of "How is austerity doing in Europe?", we need to decide how we are going to measure it. *

When I set about looking at the effect of the recession, it became apparent that it sits on top of a trend that began in the 1998 to 2000 time frame. *The world economy has become more interdependent. *(It was still quite interdependent in the 1700s). *As I am to understand it, the housing bubble of the US wasn't unique to the US. *

While measures are relative, they aren't simply a matter of opinion or dependent on one's point of view. *3+3+3+3+3+3+3+3+3+3+3+3 and 12+12+12 count a large number of small groups and small number of large groups. *That is a point of view, but they still all add up to 36. *Accounting doesn't depend on point of view, there are best practices. *

I'm still at these views of employment between Britian and the US

Employment Rate

(note-fred data ends 1-1-2012 for uk)

Employmemt to Pop Ratio

(note-fred data ends 1-1-2011 for uk)

Labor Force Participation Rate, 2007 on

(note-fred data ends 1-1-2012 for uk)

Labor Force Participation Rate, 2000 on

(how long do those graphs stay on the Fed server?)

Then there is the real output per employed person, which is a good proxy for efficiency.

And I don't have the UK.

And we have real output per population, which is a proxy for standard of living.

The last isn't good enough though.**Obviously, it doesn't include imports, just real business income. *And, for instance, health care costs are different between the two.**But the trend is there. It seems to suggest better improvement in the US per person.

 

[itfitzme]

GINI for all HH US.

I'm not familiar with how gini is determined. *It is curious that it began falling beforenthe recession.

The forum question is missing "compared to...", the compared
to what is necessary.

 

[itfitzme]

This article is from last month, out of Australia

EU shifts from austerity to growth | smh.com.au

"After three years of deep spending cuts, the European Union has confirmed a shift in policy, telling countries they must focus on structural economic reforms to boost growth, while not abandoning budget discipline.
In a long-flagged move reflecting growing frustration among euro zone governments and voters over the hardships of austerity, the European Commission announced that several countries would have more time to meet deficit targets.
The change of emphasis comes as the eurozone struggles to escape a second consecutive year of recession and record high unemployment that has provoked concerns about social unrest."

 

[itfitzme]

A comparison of IMF fiscal data and growth is provided by Krugman.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/23/austerity-europe-2/?_r=0

Of course, Krugman being a screaming liberal means that IMF and all GDP data is automatically wrong.

But, if you actually believe that underlying data is correct, then the effect is apparent.

 

[itfitzme]

These are easy google searches. *

IMF Confirms Automatic Austerity Is Wrecking U.S. Economic Growth

The IMF chimes in on the US.

"One week after conceding that it underestimated the negative impact of austerity measures in Greece, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is condemning American lawmakers’ rapid turn to spending cuts. The fund’s analysts say that “an excessively rapid pace of fiscal deficit reduction” will cost the country between 1.25 and 1.75 percent points of GDP growth this year, and it now projects just 1.9 percent total growth for 2013."

Of course, you know that IMF.

 

[itfitzme]

This one is interesting;

IMF praises Romanian austerity success: INTERVIEW ? EU - European Union business news - EUbusiness.com


"(BUCHAREST) - The Romanian economy has improved markedly after three years of a painful austerity cure and authorities should now focus on sustainable growth, a top IMF official told AFP in an interview."

""In terms of macroeconomic stability the results (of austerity) are striking: the current account deficit has gone from 15 to four percent, the public deficit from near eight percent to two percent,"

"Romania's economy grew by 2.5 percent in 2011 after two years of severe recession and is expected to go up by 1.5 percent this year.

"That is still better than the EU average but what Romania needs is four or five percent growth on a sustainable basis," in order to catch up with the more developed countries."

So by "The Romanian economy has improved markedly" it either means; the deficit improved markedly along side "two years of severe recession" or ; the "economy grew by 2.5 percent" after "two years of severe recession", maybe both.

 

[itfitzme]

I'm searching for random articles under "austerity success"

austerity success in europe - Google Search

I am not finding much of a lean towards success as in GDP or employment.

 

[bripat9643]

I'm searching for random articles under "austerity success"

austerity success in europe - Google Search

I am not finding much of a lean towards success as in GDP or employment.

Like I asked previously

What Austerity?

 

[itfitzme]

Here is an odd one.

http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2013/5/cj33n2-5.pdf

It favors tax increases over spending cuts in reducing deficits. *It presents itself as a review of literature on the subject. *But it gets very mushy when read thoroughly, before springing back tona firm conclusion.

This one

EU austerity hawks shrug off criticism of flawed academic paper - CSMonitor.com

discusses the lack of reaction to the blown excel based paper. *It's review of actual European results doesn't shed good light on it.

 

[itfitzme]

I really like seeing

"This message is hidden because bripat9643 is on your ignore list."

If only I could mute people in real life, like on click.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Depends on what it is spent on.
1. Technology, science and infrastructure=good! This makes the society richer and better off.
2. welfare for all and bail-outs=Idiocy.

 

[itfitzme]

Depends on what it is spent on.
1. Technology, science and infrastructure=good! This makes the society richer and better off.
2. welfare for all and bail-outs=Idiocy.

Not specific enough.

 

[Rshermr]

This one is interesting;

IMF praises Romanian austerity success: INTERVIEW ? EU - European Union business news - EUbusiness.com


"(BUCHAREST) - The Romanian economy has improved markedly after three years of a painful austerity cure and authorities should now focus on sustainable growth, a top IMF official told AFP in an interview."

""In terms of macroeconomic stability the results (of austerity) are striking: the current account deficit has gone from 15 to four percent, the public deficit from near eight percent to two percent,"

"Romania's economy grew by 2.5 percent in 2011 after two years of severe recession and is expected to go up by 1.5 percent this year.

"That is still better than the EU average but what Romania needs is four or five percent growth on a sustainable basis," in order to catch up with the more developed countries."

So by "The Romanian economy has improved markedly" it either means; the deficit improved markedly along side "two years of severe recession" or ; the "economy grew by 2.5 percent" after "two years of severe recession", maybe both.

Yes, Romania was the poster child used by those supporting austerity. Emphasis on was. Note the date was 2012, and looking at earlier results - 2011 through q1 of 2012. Problem was, the people of the country disagreed. And the numbers took a nose dive mid 2012 on. The result has been a complete replacement of the gov leadership, with the new leadership promising to end austerity.
So, not so much...

 

[oldfart]

GINI for all HH US.

I'm not familiar with how gini is determined. *It is curious that it began falling beforenthe recession.

The forum question is missing "compared to...", the compared
to what is necessary.

See
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html#

When you get to the link, click on "References--Guide to Country Comparisons"

Then expand "Economy" and click on the sixth link ("Household Gini coefficients", just below "Unemployment")


Also see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient

 

[itfitzme]

GINI for all HH US.

I'm not familiar with how gini is determined. *It is curious that it began falling beforenthe recession.

The forum question is missing "compared to...", the compared
to what is necessary.

See
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html#

When you get to the link, click on "References--Guide to Country Comparisons"

Then expand "Economy" and click on the sixth link ("Household Gini coefficients", just below "Unemployment")


Also see Gini coefficient - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yeah, got the wiki one, wasn't what I was thinking, though still useful.

 

[Rshermr]

To me, the number one factor that needs to be considered is employment. Nothing ever gets better until unemployment is low. True in this countries as well as any others I have seen. When you see food employment trends, you can expect to see enough increase in demand to get an economy moving.
GNP is great, except it needs to be coupled with a good distribution of the revenue. You could, if you wanted, imagine a nation with gnp in great shape, but where 200 very wealthy have 99+ % of the revenue. Not many would consider it successful. Though those 200 would!!
My reading, over the years, says that a high distribution of wealth and income to the wealthy, at the expense of the middle class, is a pretty sure sign that your economy is in serious decline.