Math and probability requires assumptions that you shouldn’t be making.
If people were random, you might have a point.
People aren’t random.
Biden voters tend to vote by mail.
Mail votes tend to be counted later.
Biden voters tend to live in cities.
Cities tend to be counted later.
Actual people who know math also know when people are full of shit.
That totally misses the point. That they were all solid Trump and all barely flipped is just way too much of a coincidence. It's not that they were all saw the same movie, it's that they were all in the same seat