How will this year rank globally?

[TyroneSlothrop]

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Number of Cat 4 that made landfall post Katrina, which was supposed to now be a pussyhat storm in comparison:

0

Zip

Nada

At least Ty still beleeves in me!

 

[ScienceRocks]

Number of Cat 4 that made landfall post Katrina, which was supposed to now be a pussyhat storm in comparison:

0

Zip

Nada

At least Ty still beleeves in me!

I'll admit that you're right about landfalls on the United states these past 12 years. This is one of the reason I am not a alarmist but more of a "moderate" when it comes to global warming. There's way to many variables to predict all the factors and most of them are negative feed backs(clouds, shear, etc) that we know even less about then the positives. As even the IPCC even admits. Maybe the Atlantic is within a calm period caused by something natural that we don't understand yet, but that is a wait and see as our record is only 150 years old at most.

One research paper I read a few years ago suggested that this would happen with an increase in upper level shear as the sst's warmed up. It is always good to be skeptical but I wouldn't throw the green house theory over it.

 

[ScienceRocks]

On the otherhand majors or stronger since 2005

Matthew last year Hit Haiti a cat4
Sandy 2012 officially hit cuba as cat3
Karl in 2010 hit Mexico as a cat3
PALOMA 2008 hit Cuba as a cat4.
Omar 2008 hit the leewards as a cat4
Ike 2008 hit Cuba as a cat4
Gustav 2008 hit Cuba as a cat4
Dean 2007 hit the Yucatan as a cat5
Felix 2007 hit Central America as a cat5

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Number of Cat 4 that made landfall post Katrina, which was supposed to now be a pussyhat storm in comparison:

0

Zip

Nada

At least Ty still beleeves in me!

I'll admit that you're right about landfalls on the United states these past 12 years. This is one of the reason I am not a alarmist but more of a "moderate" when it comes to global warming. There's way to many variables to predict all the factors and most of them are negative feed backs(clouds, shear, etc) that we know even less about then the positives. As even the IPCC even admits. Maybe the Atlantic is within a calm period caused by something natural that we don't understand yet, but that is a wait and see as our record is only 150 years old at most.

One research paper I read a few years ago suggested that this would happen with an increase in upper level shear as the sst's warmed up. It is always good to be skeptical but I wouldn't throw the green house theory over it.

If the record is only 150 years why are we talking about "hottest ever!!!"?

 

[ScienceRocks]

Number of Cat 4 that made landfall post Katrina, which was supposed to now be a pussyhat storm in comparison:

0

Zip

Nada

At least Ty still beleeves in me!

I'll admit that you're right about landfalls on the United states these past 12 years. This is one of the reason I am not a alarmist but more of a "moderate" when it comes to global warming. There's way to many variables to predict all the factors and most of them are negative feed backs(clouds, shear, etc) that we know even less about then the positives. As even the IPCC even admits. Maybe the Atlantic is within a calm period caused by something natural that we don't understand yet, but that is a wait and see as our record is only 150 years old at most.

One research paper I read a few years ago suggested that this would happen with an increase in upper level shear as the sst's warmed up. It is always good to be skeptical but I wouldn't throw the green house theory over it.

If the record is only 150 years why are we talking about "hottest ever!!!"?

Well, simply put our hurricane records don't compare to the dozens of proxy global temperature records we have. It is like comparing an ant to a whale! We have temperature records going back hundreds of millions of years through certain proxy records that tell us that the world use to be hotter 30, 40, 100 million years ago but we sure as a hell don't have anything like this for hurricanes.

We have good proxy records and bad tropical cyclone records! That is why we can say we're the hottest of a certain period of time...No where did I ever say we're the hottest ever!

Within the recorded temperature record is what I mean. Frank, it is also quite likely 2016 is the hottest since 3,000BC.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Number of Cat 4 that made landfall post Katrina, which was supposed to now be a pussyhat storm in comparison:

0

Zip

Nada

At least Ty still beleeves in me!

I'll admit that you're right about landfalls on the United states these past 12 years. This is one of the reason I am not a alarmist but more of a "moderate" when it comes to global warming. There's way to many variables to predict all the factors and most of them are negative feed backs(clouds, shear, etc) that we know even less about then the positives. As even the IPCC even admits. Maybe the Atlantic is within a calm period caused by something natural that we don't understand yet, but that is a wait and see as our record is only 150 years old at most.

One research paper I read a few years ago suggested that this would happen with an increase in upper level shear as the sst's warmed up. It is always good to be skeptical but I wouldn't throw the green house theory over it.

If the record is only 150 years why are we talking about "hottest ever!!!"?

Well, simply put our hurricane records don't compare to the dozens of proxy global temperature records we have. It is like comparing an ant to a whale! We have temperature records going back hundreds of millions of years through certain proxy records that tell us that the world use to be hotter 30, 40, 100 million years ago but we sure as a hell don't have anything like this for hurricanes.

We have good proxy records and bad tropical cyclone records! That is why we can say we're the hottest of a certain period of time...No where did I ever say we're the hottest ever!

Within the recorded temperature record is what I mean. Frank, it is also quite likely 2016 is the hottest since 3,000BC.

If it weren't for the accounting trick of adding in the warming trapped in the deep ocean, I might believe the 2016 temperatures were the warmest in 5000 years

 

[Billy_Bob]

Number of Cat 4 that made landfall post Katrina, which was supposed to now be a pussyhat storm in comparison:

0

Zip

Nada

At least Ty still beleeves in me!

I'll admit that you're right about landfalls on the United states these past 12 years. This is one of the reason I am not a alarmist but more of a "moderate" when it comes to global warming. There's way to many variables to predict all the factors and most of them are negative feed backs(clouds, shear, etc) that we know even less about then the positives. As even the IPCC even admits. Maybe the Atlantic is within a calm period caused by something natural that we don't understand yet, but that is a wait and see as our record is only 150 years old at most.

One research paper I read a few years ago suggested that this would happen with an increase in upper level shear as the sst's warmed up. It is always good to be skeptical but I wouldn't throw the green house theory over it.

If the record is only 150 years why are we talking about "hottest ever!!!"?

Well, simply put our hurricane records don't compare to the dozens of proxy global temperature records we have. It is like comparing an ant to a whale! We have temperature records going back hundreds of millions of years through certain proxy records that tell us that the world use to be hotter 30, 40, 100 million years ago but we sure as a hell don't have anything like this for hurricanes.

We have good proxy records and bad tropical cyclone records! That is why we can say we're the hottest of a certain period of time...No where did I ever say we're the hottest ever!

Within the recorded temperature record is what I mean. Frank, it is also quite likely 2016 is the hottest since 3,000BC.

Its not even close..

 

[Billy_Bob]

here is the temp reconstruct that is the gold standard.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Number of Cat 4 that made landfall post Katrina, which was supposed to now be a pussyhat storm in comparison:

0

Zip

Nada

At least Ty still beleeves in me!

I'll admit that you're right about landfalls on the United states these past 12 years. This is one of the reason I am not a alarmist but more of a "moderate" when it comes to global warming. There's way to many variables to predict all the factors and most of them are negative feed backs(clouds, shear, etc) that we know even less about then the positives. As even the IPCC even admits. Maybe the Atlantic is within a calm period caused by something natural that we don't understand yet, but that is a wait and see as our record is only 150 years old at most.

One research paper I read a few years ago suggested that this would happen with an increase in upper level shear as the sst's warmed up. It is always good to be skeptical but I wouldn't throw the green house theory over it.

Wind shear at high altitude requires high temp differential which is not occurring. What is occurring is cooling above 45 latitude and this allows the polar jet to remain large in size and pushes the equatorial NH jet nearer the equator keeping the storms from forming. That coupled with cold ocean temps at the surface, stops these storms from becoming big and powerful..

Most of what is written by the alarmist side is pure conjecture which doesn't pass empirical observations..