excalibur
Diamond Member
- Mar 19, 2015
- 18,149
- 34,376
- 2,290
The year 2023 saw nearly every month's jobs numbers revised downward. Add in the loss of full time jobs and the economy isn't sound.
www.zerohedge.com
While the prevailing post-payrolls narrative has focused on the surprisingly strong headline payrolls number (at 216K, this not only came above most estimates but was the highest in 4 months, denting the Fed's case for a March rate cut) and the far stronger than expected hourly earnings (which rose to 4.1%, but only because hours worked dropped again to 34.3, a level last seen in the pre-covid days from 34.4) and unchanged unemployment rate, which at 3.7% further makes the case for rate cuts quite challenging, a closer look at the details of today's jobs report reveals just how ugly the reality behind the the Budget-Busting Bidenomics truly is.
Let's start with the now monthly revisions.
Regular readers are aware that earlier this year we spotted a peculiar trend when it comes to economic data releases by the Biden admin which - without fail - had been revised lower...
... and this month was no different. In fact, as shown in the chart below, the jobs print from 10 of the past 11 months has been revised lower! Why? So that the White House can take credit for a strong number (one which also sparks algorithmic buying in the market) only to quietly revise it lower one and two months later when nobody is looking.
But that's just the start. Next we turn to the numbers behind the headline job prints which were rather terrible: the monthly nonfarm payrolls (from the Establishment Survey) may have been weak at 216K but the far more accurate Household Survey showed that the number of Employed workers actually collapsed by an unprecedented 683K, the biggest drop since the US economy was shutdown by covid!
Even scarier, while the monthly grind higher in the payrolls number (pulled from the far less accurate Establishment Survey) means that US jobs hit a record high every month with bizarre consistency and in December this was certainly the case, the total nonfarm employment number rose to an all time high 157.232 million, the abovementioned collapse in US Employment (per Household survey) meant that there were only 161.183 million employed people in the US, the lowest since June, with the now traditional divergence between these two surveys glaringly obvious in the chart below.
...
Let's start with the now monthly revisions.
Regular readers are aware that earlier this year we spotted a peculiar trend when it comes to economic data releases by the Biden admin which - without fail - had been revised lower...
... and this month was no different. In fact, as shown in the chart below, the jobs print from 10 of the past 11 months has been revised lower! Why? So that the White House can take credit for a strong number (one which also sparks algorithmic buying in the market) only to quietly revise it lower one and two months later when nobody is looking.
But that's just the start. Next we turn to the numbers behind the headline job prints which were rather terrible: the monthly nonfarm payrolls (from the Establishment Survey) may have been weak at 216K but the far more accurate Household Survey showed that the number of Employed workers actually collapsed by an unprecedented 683K, the biggest drop since the US economy was shutdown by covid!
Even scarier, while the monthly grind higher in the payrolls number (pulled from the far less accurate Establishment Survey) means that US jobs hit a record high every month with bizarre consistency and in December this was certainly the case, the total nonfarm employment number rose to an all time high 157.232 million, the abovementioned collapse in US Employment (per Household survey) meant that there were only 161.183 million employed people in the US, the lowest since June, with the now traditional divergence between these two surveys glaringly obvious in the chart below.
...
Inside The Catastrophic Jobs Report: Record 1.5 Million Crash In Full-Time Jobs, Multiple Jobholders Soar To Record, Native Born Workers Plunge And Much More | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
