Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread

[9aces]

Sorry I thought it was finished. Hillary by less than a point, this is disaster for her though.

They've called the GOP caucuses, but the Democratic caucus is too close to call.

Google is telling me that Sanders has closed the gap, Hillary is now leading by 0.2% with 89% of precincts reporting.

This is bad for Hillary yes? How can this be good for her, she should logically be beating Sanders by much bigger margin. Sanders might even narrowly win Iowa.

Of course it's bad for Hillary.

Yes, imagine the spin Hillary's campaign are going to have to try and put on this?

It's easy to spin Iowa. Low population, low electoral votes, etc.

But there's no question she's taking Bernie a whole lot more seriously than she was 24 hours ago.

Think she'll go attack dog on him? I do.

Question is, how long will he take it before he starts swinging back.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

They've called the GOP caucuses, but the Democratic caucus is too close to call.

Google is telling me that Sanders has closed the gap, Hillary is now leading by 0.2% with 89% of precincts reporting.

This is bad for Hillary yes? How can this be good for her, she should logically be beating Sanders by much bigger margin. Sanders might even narrowly win Iowa.

Of course it's bad for Hillary.

Yes, imagine the spin Hillary's campaign are going to have to try and put on this?

It's easy to spin Iowa. Low population, low electoral votes, etc.

But there's no question she's taking Bernie a whole lot more seriously than she was 24 hours ago.

I wonder if Biden will jump in if she loses Iowa...

It's too late for that. The deadlines for filing in every state past months ago.

The only scenario in which we'll see Biden as the Dem nominee would be some crazy convention deal if it went past the second ballot at a brokered convention - all very unlikely things.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

They've called the GOP caucuses, but the Democratic caucus is too close to call.

Google is telling me that Sanders has closed the gap, Hillary is now leading by 0.2% with 89% of precincts reporting.

This is bad for Hillary yes? How can this be good for her, she should logically be beating Sanders by much bigger margin. Sanders might even narrowly win Iowa.

Of course it's bad for Hillary.

Yes, imagine the spin Hillary's campaign are going to have to try and put on this?

It's easy to spin Iowa. Low population, low electoral votes, etc.

But there's no question she's taking Bernie a whole lot more seriously than she was 24 hours ago.

Think she'll go attack dog on him? I do.

Question is, how long will he take it before he starts swinging back.

I guess we'll see. I can't speak for either campaign.

 

[Political Junky]

Rand Paul came in ahead of Jeb Bush 4% to 3%.

 

[Zoom-boing]

They've called the GOP caucuses, but the Democratic caucus is too close to call.

Google is telling me that Sanders has closed the gap, Hillary is now leading by 0.2% with 89% of precincts reporting.

This is bad for Hillary yes? How can this be good for her, she should logically be beating Sanders by much bigger margin. Sanders might even narrowly win Iowa.

Of course it's bad for Hillary.

Yes, imagine the spin Hillary's campaign are going to have to try and put on this?

It's easy to spin Iowa. Low population, low electoral votes, etc.

But there's no question she's taking Bernie a whole lot more seriously than she was 24 hours ago.

I wonder if Biden will jump in if she loses Iowa...

No. I don't believe he is up to running or the job, if he were to win.

 

[amrchaos]

The spread between Hillary and Bernie is narrower than the margin of error.

You could the winner for one, and then find out the other won in the morning. A win here put Hillary on the defence and shakes up her finances and supporters pretty hard.

 

[cereal_killer]

Cruz 6 delegates, Trump 5, Rubio 5. Total delegates needed: 1,237

 

[theDoctorisIn]

The spread between Hillary and Bernie is narrower than the margin of error.

You could the winner for one, and then find out the other won in the morning. A win here put Hillary on the defence and shakes up her finances and supporters pretty hard.

It's interesting, I'm not familiar with how the Iowa Democratic party divides their delegates, but Google has Sanders winning more delegates (21/20), even though he's still down by 0.3%.

 

[amrchaos]

It might come down to the 7 votes for O'Malley!

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

whats wrong with Golden NutSacks? sorry, I just thought of that one.

Cruz had the Evangelical vote in Iowa, he had good ground campaign involving all those Churches. I don't think as many Evangelicals in NH. I think the problem for Trump not in NH, the problem could be in South Carolina, again it's the Evangelicals.

No I'm not a fan of any Evangelical no matter where they are on the planet. This is the "Bring On Armageddon" crowd we must remember.

 

[Tom Horn]

AP delegate count....Cruz 8, Trump 7, Rubio 6.

2016 State Primaries and Caucuses Results - Iowa | Politics | Fox News

 

[CowboyTed]

I don't understand the issue with Clinton and Sanders in Iowa... This was predicted to be tight... Iowa will be a distance memeory later on...
I might raise a bit of cash but thats it...

Bernie will win next week and then Clinton machine kicks in...

This one is a draw, no matter who wins..

Was Clinton expected to win? the polls were always tight...

 

[aaronleland]

In my opinion the real losers of tonight's caucuses were Clinton and Trump. Everyone expected Trump to perform better, and nobody saw Rubio inching that close to him. Clinton has lost even if she wins. She has been running for POTUS for over a decade now, There's no reason Bernie should be neck and neck with her.

Maybe the biggest loser was Santorum. How do you win four years ago, and get 1% of the vote next time around?

 

[Tom Horn]

I don't understand the issue with Clinton and Sanders in Iowa... This was predicted to be tight... Iowa will be a distance memeory later on...
I might raise a bit of cash but thats it...

Bernie will win next week and then Clinton machine kicks in...

This one is a draw, no matter who wins..

Was Clinton expected to win? the polls were always tight...

Considering the Clinton crime syndicate's election shenanigans record, Bernie might be well ahead of her....I put nothing past them.

 

[amrchaos]

According to Wiki , Iowa has 44 pledged delegates, 8 unpledged.--and Hillary has4 of those 8 already dedicated to her.

If they are saying Sanders has 21, then they are saying Bernie lost

 

[theDoctorisIn]

According to Wiki , Iowa has 44 pledged delegates, 8 unpledged.--and Hillary has4 of those 8 already dedicated to her.

If they are saying Sanders has 21, then they are saying Bernie lost

The results are not official yet, I imagine that's just Google's prediction. A few minutes ago, it was saying that Bernie was getting 23 to Hillary's 19.

 

[CowboyTed]

I don't understand the issue with Clinton and Sanders in Iowa... This was predicted to be tight... Iowa will be a distance memeory later on...
I might raise a bit of cash but thats it...

Bernie will win next week and then Clinton machine kicks in...

This one is a draw, no matter who wins..

Was Clinton expected to win? the polls were always tight...

Considering the Clinton crime syndicate's election shenanigans record, Bernie might be well ahead of her....I put nothing past them.

The problem you have is you are wrong... Now since base your decisions on wrong information, your decesions are not valid...

Did Hillary Clinton start the Obama birther movement?

 

[Jackson]

A candidate can win Iowa and New Hampshire, but more important is this day they refer to as Super Tuesday, when many States vote.

I think so. These are very small states w/o many delegates. Big states get many more total delegates?

right.

 

[Tom Horn]

I don't understand the issue with Clinton and Sanders in Iowa... This was predicted to be tight... Iowa will be a distance memeory later on...
I might raise a bit of cash but thats it...

Bernie will win next week and then Clinton machine kicks in...

This one is a draw, no matter who wins..

Was Clinton expected to win? the polls were always tight...

Considering the Clinton crime syndicate's election shenanigans record, Bernie might be well ahead of her....I put nothing past t

The problem you have is you are wrong... Now since base your decisions on wrong information, your decesions are not valid...

Did Hillary Clinton start the Obama birther movement?

Plenty of documentation on it.....same as Algore did the Willy Horton thing to the Duck.

 

[Jackson]

According to Wiki , Iowa has 44 pledged delegates, 8 unpledged.--and Hillary has4 of those 8 already dedicated to her.

If they are saying Sanders has 21, then they are saying Bernie lost

The results are not official yet, I imagine that's just Google's prediction. A few minutes ago, it was saying that Bernie was getting 23 to Hillary's 19.

At 10.26 Central time, it is Hillary 50.2 and Sanders 49.3 Can't get much closer than that!