Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread

[theDoctorisIn]

rcp Clinton 50.3 Sanders 49.0 O'Malley time for a concession speech!

"Concede" what?

There's no need for him to concede in Iowa, he's not even in the running. As for the rest of the campaign - Iowa is only 6 out of 538 electoral votes.

I posted earlier that CNN has reported that sources say O'Malley will suspend his campaign in the next 40 minutes or so. Guess we'll see.

I wouldn't be surprised if he does, but there is a difference between suspending his campaign and conceding.

He could resume his campaign at some point in the future if he suspends it - not so much if he concedes.

Candidates always say they are "suspending" their campaigns. They never actually jump back into the race.

In most cases, of course you're correct. But there is always the possibility of strange things happening, and this cycle is looking stranger than I've ever seen before.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Honestly, I'm surprised at how poor Trump's showing was. I was expecting him to last a little longer before starting to fizzle out.

 

[leftwinger]

Honestly, I'm surprised at how poor Trump's showing was. I was expecting him to last a little longer before starting to fizzle out.

he is lock in NH, SC? no?

 

[leftwinger]

HRC by 0.7% 84% counted.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Honestly, I'm surprised at how poor Trump's showing was. I was expecting him to last a little longer before starting to fizzle out.

he is lock in NH, SC? no?

According to all the polling, he was a lock in Iowa, too.

He's still got a pretty good chance in NH, but I wouldn't count on anything past that.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Okay, so what does this mean? Same voters as Romney, this is Liberal Republicans?

Iowa is old fashioned? Many vote R establishment no matter what it appears. I don't think that holds up other states? few big cites, but many farmlands. I not expert. just a thought.

Okay, so I made one accurate prediction, that Mike Huckabee would withdraw from race, I heard he just has.

I don't think Rubio might perform that well in New Hampshire. Also what Iowa shows, Trump needs to increase his lead going into NH and obviously Super Tuesday. If like Iowa his lead going in is within the MOE, Cruz can pull ahead on the night again, Trump needs to get his leads outside of MOE.

 

[Tom Horn]

Kasich, Christie, Huckabee, and Fiorina deadlocked at.....are you ready? 2%.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Honestly, I'm surprised at how poor Trump's showing was. I was expecting him to last a little longer before starting to fizzle out.

he is lock in NH, SC? no?

According to all the polling, he was a lock in Iowa, too.

He's still got a pretty good chance in NH, but I wouldn't count on anything past that.

The last poll had him within MOE with Cruz.

 

[cereal_killer]

Iowa has just 1% of the delegates, and the spoils are split proportionally. There's still a long road ahead. Time to prepare for the next battle...

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Cruz is following exactly in the footsteps of Santorum & Huckabee.

What does this mean? Please.

 

[leftwinger]

According to all the polling, he was a lock in Iowa, too.

ahh....I did not hear that one? ever? I thought it tight. Remember Trump saying "come on Iowa, you never pick the winner etc."

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Iowa has just 1% of the delegates, and the spoils are split proportionally. There's still a long road ahead. Time to prepare for the next battle...

Maybe New Hampshire doesn't really matter then? It's the Super Tuesday thing that matters.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

According to all the polling, he was a lock in Iowa, too.

ahh....I did not hear that one? ever? I thought it tight. Remember Trump saying "come on Iowa, you never pick the winner etc."

Yes Trump lead Cruz going in, but the lead was within Margin of Error.

 

[amrchaos]

OK--I'm back

Just hears Rubio's "victory speech", well part of it, on the radio.

So are the democrats finished. Who won?

 

[leftwinger]

Carson 9%. Trump could buy him out.

As I said hours back Cruz HAD to win or he finished, Trump don't need it. It is not even Winner take all.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Kasich, Christie, Huckabee, and Fiorina deadlocked at.....are you ready? 2%.

Mike Huckabee has withdrawn from race, as I predicted this hours ago, I'm now offering myself for hire as Top Political Pundit on any or ALL Political Pundit TV shows

 

[leftwinger]

btw, Cruz ain't all bad? is he? I think he has worse chance against the beast.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

OK--I'm back

Just hears Rubio's "victory speech", well part of it, on the radio.

So are the democrats finished. Who won?

I think Hillary won, but not by too much.

 

[9aces]

Kasich, Christie, Huckabee, and Fiorina deadlocked at.....are you ready? 2%.

Mike Huckabee has withdrawn from race, as I predicted this hours ago, I'm now offering myself for hire as Top Political Pundit on any or ALL Political Pundit TV shows

Something he's actually quite good at.

 

[9aces]

OK--I'm back

Just hears Rubio's "victory speech", well part of it, on the radio.

So are the democrats finished. Who won?

I think Hillary won, but not by too much.

Maybe, that's still going and too close to call just yet.