I've never seen unemployment drop .3 percent on only 114K net jobs

[Luddly Neddite]

I've never seen unemployment drop .3 percent on only 114K net jobs

Gosh. Really? Wow.

And, your judgment should be the final word on this why?

Oh yeah, I remember now, because you're wearing the same tinfoil lined hat as your sources. And, you're desperate to find some way to discount the president's hard work.

I think y'all should save yourselves the trouble of making up lies and just with the 'we don't need no steenkin fact checkers' ploy. It seems to work for the non-thinking rw voter so I say, stay with what works.

LOL

 

[GuyPinestra]

I've never seen unemployment drop .3 percent on only 114K net jobs

Gosh. Really? Wow.

And, your judgment should be the final word on this why?

Oh yeah, I remember now, because you're wearing the same tinfoil lined hat as your sources. And, you're desperate to find some way to discount the president's hard work.

I think y'all should save yourselves the trouble of making up lies and just with the 'we don't need no steenkin fact checkers' ploy. It seems to work for the non-thinking rw voter so I say, stay with what works.

LOL

Put a sock in it, Mr. Willfully Ignorant...

You must've missed this post...

Essentially that's correct, but I highly doubt it was maliciously intended. It's just standard procedure according to the formula for seasonal adjustments. Every now and then a perfect storm will happen with seasonal adjustments, outliers in their employment polling, and a drop in people looking for work that create a statistical effect wherein a completely ridiculous result is achieved. That's why the U3 is essentially irrelevant. Because it considers far fewer factors, when a confounding variable is present is has a far more dramatic effect than the U4 - U6 unemployment numbers. Again this is why the U3 experienced a drop while the U6 remained static. If all you look at is the U3 (which is precisely what Obama and the media are hoping for) things look great with this report. When it's compared to everything else it's indisputably evident that what we are seeing is a statistical quirk and not a real trend.

 

[Rozman]

It's obvious something different was done this time around.
They counted people they never counted before.If that's not it I don't what it is.
But all of a sudden right before the election the number goes down.How convenient.
All the people on Wall Street had a different projection as to where the number was going to be.
They were all taken by surprise.

There is something very fishy here.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Well look....were the numbers intentionally cooked by the Obama administration? No. Let's not get crazy here. However, are they accurate? Oh hell no. What we are seeing in this report is a statistical anomaly. It's the result of more people leaving the workforce, inaccurate projections of what would happen by the BLS when they applied their seasonal adjustments, and possibly an outlier in their polling (yes, these statistics are done in large part by simple polling which is subject to an outlier effect just like any other poll).

The problem is that there is a misunderstanding of what the U3 unemployment rate actually is and that misunderstanding is perpetrated by the media according to their biases. What this report actually says is that fewer people met the definition of U3 unemployed...that does not mean that more people found jobs as a percentage of the workforce. The workforce participation rate remained the same and the U6 unemployment rate was unchanged. That would make a lot of sense because the payroll reporting indicated 114,000 new jobs and 120,000 are required to keep up with population growth. In other words we actually went backwards by 6,000 which is not enough to raise the U6 by a tenth of a percent.

The reason why it appears that there is a drop in the U3 is because the BLS fucked up their seasonal adjustment projections and more people dropped out of the workforce. That's why the market initially boomed after the release but when they looked at it further the market tanked....it looked like great news until they realized it was terrible news.

Now Obama and the left leaning media are only going to point at the drop of 0.3% and pray to God that the electorate is either too stupid or too lazy to look deeper into the report and see what's really going on...history suggests they will be correct. People like Lakhota and, I am sad to say, Sallow (whom I usually have respect for) are basically doing the same.

1. The American people are that stupid. I hate to say it; but our problems are rooted in the stupidity of the electorate who prop up these phony politicians.

2. Obama is banking on their stupidity. How many people are busting out their college degrees in statistics and accounting for the "anomalies" that created a statistical deviation? Contrast that to how many people are saying oh, unemployment went down .3 percent.

3. I trust Jack Welch. The guy is possibly the sharpest business man in our time. If he says the books are being cooked, then I take his word for it.

4. Last month, 392K were dropped from the labor force to stop unemployment from going up. This month, the unemployment dropped .3 percent on only 114K jobs (my understanding is 250K is needed to keep-up with inflation growth; you cite 120K). Again, I have never seen that happen and look at the timing.

5. I don't believe Hilda Solis or Obama to be moral people in any sense of the word. I know from life experience that when you have that type of formula then mischief is a given; especially given the complicity of the media. They are desperate to keep their cushy stations in life and that should not be at all discounted.

 

[JakeStarkey]

I don't see it either, but . . . Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data — Former BLS Head
Wall Street Journal (blog)* - 1 day ago

Google

 

[Jimmy_Jam]

I don't see it either, but . . . Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data — Former BLS Head
Wall Street Journal (blog)* - 1 day ago

Google

Interesting article, especially the last line:

“It is quite possible that the positive news could be reversed when the October jobless number is reported four days before the election,” said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University, Channel Islands.

Of course it's possible, and probably likely given that the stagnating economy hasn't really changed. And Republicans will rejoice and there will be no questioning of the numbers then. I will be happy too, because I want Obama out of the White House.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Perhaps, and we can rejoice. But I will not agree that the numbers were fudged if we cannot prove it.

 

[HUGGY]

I just never seen it__ And I know it's b.s.

And I'm with Jack Welch; those Chicago a-holes lost the debate so now they're cooking the books. And it started last month when they claimed 392K people had stopped working; to drop unemployment a tenth of a point then.

JACK WELCH: Obama Skewing Jobs Report Numbers - Business Insider

"Sept. unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent due to an extraordinary – but implausible – estimate of 873,000 #jobs in household survey,” said Holtz-Eakin on Twitter.

“The report presented a slew of contradictory data points, with the total employment level soaring despite the low net number,” said CNBC's Jeff Cox.

The Washington Post's Neil Irwin adds, "Weird that payrolls are exactly on forecast but household survey is far better."

And the Wall Street Journal warns that these numbers should be taken "with a grain of salt."

Jobs Report Met with Skepticism | The Weekly Standard

I've never seen unemployment drop .3 percent on only 114K net jobs




Stick around it'll get even better .... just in time for election day. The new hired holiday temps will be on board and the numbers will be shocking... Shocking I tell YOU!!!

 

[Lakhota]

Gee, why didn't NaziCons complain when the unemployment numbers were high?

 

[Jimmy_Jam]

Perhaps, and we can rejoice. But I will not agree that the numbers were fudged if we cannot prove it.

That is far too reasonable, Jake. You clearly must feel out of place at this site.

 

[JakeStarkey]

I bear it as lightly as I do a misty rain. The slugs that pop out of the ground here, I simply step on.

 

[Wry Catcher]

Jack Welch is an asshole. Thrice married he (and Romney) relished firing people; Welch relished firing staff and spouses. Take a look at his bio.

That said, "Living is Giving" and Romeny and Welch are takers. No wonder American Women and Latin voters reject Romeny and the entire right wing which has taken over the GOP. No wonder the party of avarice loves them.

 

[BluePhantom]

1. The American people are that stupid. I hate to say it; but our problems are rooted in the stupidity of the electorate who prop up these phony politicians.

Agreed

2. Obama is banking on their stupidity. How many people are busting out their college degrees in statistics and accounting for the "anomalies" that created a statistical deviation? Contrast that to how many people are saying oh, unemployment went down .3 percent.

No argument there.

3. I trust Jack Welch. The guy is possibly the sharpest business man in our time. If he says the books are being cooked, then I take his word for it.

He is a very sharp businessman yes.

4. Last month, 392K were dropped from the labor force to stop unemployment from going up. This month, the unemployment dropped .3 percent on only 114K jobs (my understanding is 250K is needed to keep-up with inflation growth; you cite 120K). Again, I have never seen that happen and look at the timing.

Yup....but again, the formula for calculating the U3 is the same formula that has been used for decades. Now there will be small changes here and there based upon the seasonal adjustments because those are dependent on history and according to history they will bounce around a bit. But for the most part, the formula is the formula. The problem is that people (aided mostly by the media and the administrations themselves) focus on the U3 even though it's terribly unreliable because it's always lower and paints a rosier picture.

Is it "cooking the books"? Well in a way sure because it's not providing a true representation of "people out of work". But see....that's the critical issue isn't it? The U6 measures people who are "out of work". The U3 measures people who are "unemployed according to the U3 definition of unemployed". There's a huge difference. The U3 is a lot like "well that depends on what your definition of the word 'is' is". So the U3 is "the truth", but it's a very selective truth that is dependent upon very specific conditions that define truth for its own purposes....the U6 is "the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth".

Now...in a rare circumstance the U3 doesn't even represent a "selective truth" because sometimes the BLS simply gets the forecast for seasonal adjustments wrong. That's what we are seeing with this report. What the BLS expected to happen with young workers quitting their jobs and going back to school, didn't happen (by roughly 500,000) and so the seasonal weighting of the formula produced a figure that is completely inaccurate. But that's really rare for it to be that out of whack.

Essentially what happened is that roughly 100,000 people found a new job, 200,000 people quit looking for work completely and were removed from the "labor pool" for calculating the U3 (they are still in the U6 and actually that figure is not exactly correct because it will be removed from the denominator instead of the numerator so it's actually a bit higher once you express it as a percentage), and 500,000 people that the BLS expected to quit their jobs didn't...that's 800,000 people that make up that 0.3% drop. But in reality only 114,000 people found work....well below the 120,000 - 140,000 needed to keep pace. So what happens? The U3 drops artificially and the U6 stays the same which is exactly what this report says.

5. I don't believe Hilda Solis or Obama to be moral people in any sense of the word. I know from life experience that when you have that type of formula then mischief is a given; especially given the complicity of the media. They are desperate to keep their cushy stations in life and that should not be at all discounted.

Oh hell no they are not moral...no fucking way. Obama is a snake and trust me....if he could find a way to manipulate the data he would in a heartbeat without question or hesitation. BUT....if he was manipulating the data he would manipulate more than just the U3....he would manipulate the U6 as well because if the U6 goes down any argument that the improvement is a statistical quirk is pretty much dead in the water. So if he was going to intentionally cook the books we would see both the U3 and the U6 drop.

Now I will admit that boy it seems pretty damned convenient that after years of monthly job growth of roughly 115,000, and a mere few days after Obama has his head handed to him in a debate with Romney...SACRE BLEU!!! 800,000 people find jobs in a month. Yeah.......buuuuuuuulllllllllllshit mother fucker. How stupid do you think we are? BUT.....however convenient it may be for team Obama, it's a statistical freak accident or they would have dropped the U6 as well.

Remember the Phantom Rule: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. In this case I don't see it.

THAT BEING SAID....liberals need to stop the bullshit. This report is NOT good news. Cut the crap, develop more grey matter...whatever you need to do, but stop with the "800,000 people found work last month and the economy is really improving" horseshit. The only people that believe it is you (liberals) and my guess is that 80% of you actually don't, you are just hoping everyone else does.

 

[editec]

Here's the kink to the BLS report.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Feel free to show us where you think the BLS has changed their modus operandi to LIE for Obama.

 

[GuyPinestra]

Here's the kink to the BLS report.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Feel free to show us where you think the BLS has changed their modus operandi to LIE for Obama.

Who are you addressing??

 

[candycorn]

Got moved to the conspiracy section with all the other kooks....love it!

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Got moved to the conspiracy section with all the other kooks....love it!

Who cares. It just means it won't get buried under a wave of political threads. And frankly__ more and more conspiracy theories are true. We're living in corrupt times.

 

[Katzndogz]

Once the work requirement was removed from welfare, tens of thousands of people stopped looking for work. They weren't added to the welfare rolls because they've already been getting welfare, they were just able to stop looking.

Generally the public knows that something was fiddled with. They may not know exactly what, but they know that there is a monumental lie in there someplace. That's why the news of this dramatic drop hasn't been received with anything more than a big "You gotta be kidding me".

 

[candycorn]

Got moved to the conspiracy section with all the other kooks....love it!

Who cares. It just means it won't get buried under a wave of political threads. And frankly__ more and more conspiracy theories are true. We're living in corrupt times.

It means it's krazy koo-koo land time and you're the curator. As for conspiracy theories, some racist scumbags actually believe the President's birth certificate is false. Know any one like that? Of course you do.

 

[GuyPinestra]

Got moved to the conspiracy section with all the other kooks....love it!

Who cares. It just means it won't get buried under a wave of political threads. And frankly__ more and more conspiracy theories are true. We're living in corrupt times.

It means it's krazy koo-koo land time and you're the curator. As for conspiracy theories, some racist scumbags actually believe the President's birth certificate is false. Know any one like that? Of course you do.

There are lots of people, of ALL races, that have questions about the obviously falsified documents provided so far to 'prove' the President's birthplace. To call them 'racist scumbags' is quite a stretch, as that would include MANY of the staff and supporters of Hillary Clinton's 2008 Presidential primary run.

You must remember they were the ORIGINAL 'birthers'...

Now let's get back on track with THIS thread. Can anyone explain to me with a straight face how 114K jobs drops the UE by .3 when 160K jobs last month didn't budge it?