para bellum
Platinum Member
I've been meaning to get back to this but was waiting for a little more clarity.I wouldn't be surprised, about T-55s. It seems that the Putin regime will try to somewhat escalate the war. Now, they are talking about Kharkiv oblast even so they weren't too active in creation their proxy local authorities there some time before.
They want Kharkiv, but wanting and getting aren't the same thing. My magic 8-ball says "very doubtful".
When it's actual Russians, they are getting better kit. At least the new "Tigr" Bn is getting AK-12's with modern sights. What they are NOT getting is modern AFV's. They are riding in old MT-LB's which are 60's era Soviet kit and not survivable against even the little drone-dropped grenades.They are conducting 'silent' mobilization in Russia. And they will have to arm these people. And my bet is they will get 'more junk' hardware than the regulars.
The LDPR get the junk because Putin doesn't care how many of them get chewed up- he doesn't have to answer for them to Russian mothers.
I don't think there is much appetite in Belarus to take a run on Kiev. They have been sending ammunition trains and Tochka-U TEL's to Russia and asking Russia for advanced weapons in return, which is kind of a demand for some quid-pro-quo.Except of that, there are some strange movements in Belarus.
I think Lukashenko finds himself between a rock and a hard spot. He fancies himself as the intermediary between Europe and Russia, but Europeans aren't very keen on him and Erdo has kind of stepped into that role. So Belarus remains a question mark to me.
I do think we're at an inflection point right now. Zelensky's order yesterday signals the start of the counter-offensive in the south. Ukraine now controls the main Russian supply route between Kherson and Melitipol so any resupply of Kherson has to come through Crimea.
The Ukrainian leadership has been urging residents in Kherson to get out before the fighting starts, even if it means going through Crimea.
They blew up the main ammunition depot near the Kherson International airport, and the command center and main base at the Stadium. Russia has placed barges with radar reflectors at the support span on the Kerch Bridge as decoys- they know it's #1 on the AFU target list.
In the past 7 days, Ukraine has taken out at least 11 major ammunition storage sites. These are all large depots- like 20,000-30,000 metric tons of ammunition in each one. And a dozen command and control centers, and another dozen barracks/troop bases.
Russian artillery usage is about 10% of what it was 2 weeks ago across the entire battlespace. They are reduced to missile attacks on civilian targets, mostly using inaccurate missiles that weren't made for ground attack. They've even started repurposing S-300's for ground strike in Kherson. Like the KH-22's, the S-300 terminal guidance is useless- when the radar looks at the ground, it sees the ground- they can't differentiate ground targets like they can for ships and aircraft that stand out against the background. So they rely on inertial guidance only.
Watching Kherson with great interest in the next couple weeks. If Ukraine can exploit the tactical advantage they have created, they can remove those forces in Kherson from the Russian ORBAT proper. Then take out the Crimean bridge, cut off the water, and isolate the Russians there.
Then move on to Melitipol and start clearing Zaphorizia Oblast without fear of being flanked or attacked from the rear.
The training up of Ukrainian infantry is accelerating and the AFU is using the NATO weapons with great effect. HIMARS will be up to 12 launchers by the end of the week, and the M270's from the UK/Norway are either already there, or will be very shortly. And, a new batch of precision 155 ammunition is on the way.
The last 2 weeks is just the opening shots. I think the AFU is ready to press the offensive.