Let's talk about the map

[Dr.Traveler]

This is the interactive map from 270towin.com This is the 2012 actual map, representing Romney vs. Obama. So now we know who the nominees are, any time we talk about Trump vs. Hillary we need to start here, with this map. National polls are useless at this point, and probably will be useless until right about the end. State polls will matter.

So, if you think your candidate would win and you want to be credible, answer this:

What states will your candidate keep that their party won in 2012, and why?
What states will your candidate flip that their party lost in 2012, and why?

For example:

I'm not a Trump fan, but if you assume he picks Kasich as his VP and flips Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and New Jersey you get the following map:

Is that realistic? Well Trump does have deep ties in Nevada, Florida, and New Jersey thanks to his business ties. In New Jersey he has a proxy in Chris Christie that could help. Ohio would be a tough flip, but if he does pick Kasich it could happen. For him to win this way, he'd have to hold all of Romney's states though. That could happen as Hillary has some really high unfavorable ratings.

I could do one of these for Hillary, but I think the only real difference would be her flipping New Jersey to Democrat. Chris Christie isn't all that popular back home and Hillary may pick Corey Booker as her VP.

 

[Pogo]

I think anywhere Rump has "business ties" it works against him, not for him.


I can't understand the buzz about Kasich as his VP. You don't pick a running mate who's smarter than you are -- makes you look bad. He needs a dimwitted Hispanic female. I'm thinking Kim Kardashian. Who's not Hispanic but facts seem to be irrelevant in this campaign anyway.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

I think anywhere Rump has "business ties" it works against him, not for him.


I can't understand the buzz about Kasich as his VP. You don't pick a running mate who's smarter than you are -- makes you look bad. He needs a dimwitted Hispanic female. I'm thinking Kim Kardashian. Who's not Hispanic but facts seem to be irrelevant in this campaign anyway.

Trump did carry all those states I flipped in the primary other than Ohio, which Kasich carried. I'm no Trump fan and I'll be voting Hillary, but that map shows its not impossible for Trump to win.

 

[OldLady]

Doc, our state ignored Trump and Clinton and chose Cruz/Sanders in the caucuses. Your map says we're Democrats, but we have a Republican governor in his second term and a much respected Republican Senator we've been electing for twenty years; the other is an Independent. We have a very high number of Independent voters who couldn't vote in the primaries, and I think our color could change this year. If the majority wants an outsider, who is left in that category but Trump?

 

[AceRothstein]

Trump has as much of a chance as I do of winning New Jersey. LOL at the suggestion that it is a state he could win.

 

[AceRothstein]

The most likely scenario is that the map doesn't change much from 2012 map except North Carolina flips. There is an outside chance that Arizona, Missouri and Georgia flip as well.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Doc, our state ignored Trump and Clinton and chose Cruz/Sanders in the caucuses. Your map says we're Democrats, but we have a Republican governor in his second term and a much respected Republican Senator we've been electing for twenty years; the other is an Independent. We have a very high number of Independent voters who couldn't vote in the primaries, and I think our color could change this year. If the majority wants an outsider, who is left in that category but Trump?

Which state is that? I'm happy to take input on the map.

Again, I started with the 2012 Obama/Romney map and flipped only the states listed. If the flips are bad or the maps changed, that changes the exercise.

 

[rightwinger]

The map will not be friendly to Trump

In addition to the states Obama won in 2012, I see Hillary taking North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Utah

 

[Dr.Traveler]

The most likely scenario is that the map doesn't change much from 2012 map except North Carolina flips. There is an outside chance that Arizona, Missouri and Georgia flip as well.

Jeez that's a blowout.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

The map will not be friendly to Trump

In addition to the states Obama won in 2012, I see Hillary taking North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Utah

Also a blowout. I'm curious though, what puts Georgia in play? I get the Latino vote might put Arizona in play, Obama won North Carolina in 2008, and Mormons do not like Trump, but I don't get the idea of a Georgia flip.

 

[kwc57]

If Trump selects a VP that is a female, person of color, lesbian and atheist, he wins. I mean, what can Hillary attack him for? LOL

 

[Dr.Traveler]

If Trump selects a VP that is a female, person of color, lesbian and atheist, he wins. I mean, what can Hillary attack him for? LOL

So what states would he flip? Specifically and why?

 

[NYcarbineer]

This is the interactive map from 270towin.com This is the 2012 actual map, representing Romney vs. Obama. So now we know who the nominees are, any time we talk about Trump vs. Hillary we need to start here, with this map. National polls are useless at this point, and probably will be useless until right about the end. State polls will matter.

So, if you think your candidate would win and you want to be credible, answer this:

What states will your candidate keep that their party won in 2012, and why?
What states will your candidate flip that their party lost in 2012, and why?

For example:

I'm not a Trump fan, but if you assume he picks Kasich as his VP and flips Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and New Jersey you get the following map:

Is that realistic? Well Trump does have deep ties in Nevada, Florida, and New Jersey thanks to his business ties. In New Jersey he has a proxy in Chris Christie that could help. Ohio would be a tough flip, but if he does pick Kasich it could happen. For him to win this way, he'd have to hold all of Romney's states though. That could happen as Hillary has some really high unfavorable ratings.

I could do one of these for Hillary, but I think the only real difference would be her flipping New Jersey to Democrat. Chris Christie isn't all that popular back home and Hillary may pick Corey Booker as her VP.

As of March, Chris Christie had a 30% approval rating in New Jersey.

 

[AceRothstein]

The map will not be friendly to Trump

In addition to the states Obama won in 2012, I see Hillary taking North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Utah

Also a blowout. I'm curious though, what puts Georgia in play? I get the Latino vote might put Arizona in play, Obama won North Carolina in 2008, and Mormons do not like Trump, but I don't get the idea of a Georgia flip.

High African American population and a more educated populace than the rest of the south.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Hillary should keep Biden as VP. That would lock it up.

 

[jwoodie]

The map will not be friendly to Trump

In addition to the states Obama won in 2012, I see Hillary taking North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Utah

Also a blowout. I'm curious though, what puts Georgia in play? I get the Latino vote might put Arizona in play, Obama won North Carolina in 2008, and Mormons do not like Trump, but I don't get the idea of a Georgia flip.

Utah blue? More likely Pennsylvania red.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

This is the interactive map from 270towin.com This is the 2012 actual map, representing Romney vs. Obama. So now we know who the nominees are, any time we talk about Trump vs. Hillary we need to start here, with this map. National polls are useless at this point, and probably will be useless until right about the end. State polls will matter.

So, if you think your candidate would win and you want to be credible, answer this:

What states will your candidate keep that their party won in 2012, and why?
What states will your candidate flip that their party lost in 2012, and why?

For example:

I'm not a Trump fan, but if you assume he picks Kasich as his VP and flips Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and New Jersey you get the following map:

Is that realistic? Well Trump does have deep ties in Nevada, Florida, and New Jersey thanks to his business ties. In New Jersey he has a proxy in Chris Christie that could help. Ohio would be a tough flip, but if he does pick Kasich it could happen. For him to win this way, he'd have to hold all of Romney's states though. That could happen as Hillary has some really high unfavorable ratings.

I could do one of these for Hillary, but I think the only real difference would be her flipping New Jersey to Democrat. Chris Christie isn't all that popular back home and Hillary may pick Corey Booker as her VP.

As of March, Chris Christie had a 30% approval rating in New Jersey.

Yeah, New Jersey could be a long shot. I admit that.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

The map will not be friendly to Trump

In addition to the states Obama won in 2012, I see Hillary taking North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Utah

Also a blowout. I'm curious though, what puts Georgia in play? I get the Latino vote might put Arizona in play, Obama won North Carolina in 2008, and Mormons do not like Trump, but I don't get the idea of a Georgia flip.

Utah blue? More likely Pennsylvania red.

Not enough to win on it's own. Trump would need to flip more states.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

The map will not be friendly to Trump

In addition to the states Obama won in 2012, I see Hillary taking North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Utah

Also a blowout. I'm curious though, what puts Georgia in play? I get the Latino vote might put Arizona in play, Obama won North Carolina in 2008, and Mormons do not like Trump, but I don't get the idea of a Georgia flip.

High African American population and a more educated populace than the rest of the south.

I recall talk of it being in play, and possibly flipping in 2008. It didn't happen then. Could it now? I don't know.

 

[rightwinger]

The map will not be friendly to Trump

In addition to the states Obama won in 2012, I see Hillary taking North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Utah

Also a blowout. I'm curious though, what puts Georgia in play? I get the Latino vote might put Arizona in play, Obama won North Carolina in 2008, and Mormons do not like Trump, but I don't get the idea of a Georgia flip.

Georgia is a curious state. The black vote can dominate, but for the most part, they don't vote
I see the womens vote being a big factor in addition to the minority vote