bripat9643
Diamond Member
- Apr 1, 2011
- 170,163
- 47,312
Why should anyone believe the investment banker that was kissing Hillary's ass and financing her campaign?Note why Goldman did this. As it argued, this slowdown will be mainly because fiscal stimulus from the covid-19 rescue package earlier this year will wind down. Goldman projects that if BBB does not pass, that fiscal picture will be “more negative” than it might have been.
As one example, Goldman cites the expanded child tax credit, which was part of the covid relief package and now sends checks to most American families. If BBB fails, it will expire.
This blows up a key element of Manchin’s justification for opposing BBB. He says it will feed inflation and the debt, though as Jim Tankersley demonstrates, many economic experts think BBB won’t feed either.
‘A Manchin slowdown’
Indeed, Goldman’s note suggests the opposite story: Manchin is now vulnerable to the argument that the real macroeconomic risk is not to pass BBB, notes Robert Shapiro, economist and adviser to the Obama administration.
“Goldman Sachs is saying the impact on growth will be greater in not passing BBB than any marginal effect BBB might have on inflation,” said Shapiro, who recently made a much-discussed case that we’re seeing a robust recovery.
“Instead of having a Biden boom, we could have a Manchin slowdown,” Shapiro told me.
James Downie: Manchin’s rebuff of Build Back Better is the latest failure of Democrats playing soft
Could this impact the debate? Note that Manchin does not feel pressure from arguments that BBB failing will mean immiseration for his own constituents, via the failure to continue the expanded child tax credit, to expand health-care subsidies and so forth.
But Manchin does want to be seen as standing for a good economy in a more abstract sense. Manchin may not care much about the human toll and the rising odds of climate catastrophe that BBB failing might unleash. But he does know this: Inflation, spending and debt are bad.
Yet here Goldman has just recast the debate, putting Manchin on the side of slower growth. You’d think that by his lights, this is also bad.
Of course, Manchin’s inflation fearmongering is saturated in bad faith: He has reportedly been presented with reams of counter-evidence, which he ignores. So he could pretend there’s no macroeconomic risk in BBB failing. But if anything might move the debate, this might.