More stupid U.S. escalation with China over Taiwan

[konradv]

Xi owns the Bidens

He’s not the one talking up the Chinese. It seems the American right will praise anyone except another American! LOSERS

 

[CrusaderFrank]

He’s not the one talking up the Chinese. It seems the American right will praise anyone except another American! LOSERS

Xi owns the Bidens

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

“He’s not the one talking up the Chinese. It seems the American right will praise anyone except another American! LOSERS.” — Konradv

A lot of truth to this, konradv . The Trumpsters have no common policies on international questions, but a ferocious cultist partisanship that blames everything on “Globalists” or “Democrats” or “Communists” — usually in roughly that order. Of course few have any real ideas of their own, so they just “act tough” and wait on what their leader tells them to think.

That doesn’t mean Democrats or “Establishment” types in the State Department always have better answers to the problems we face internationally. Sometimes the Establishment’s experts are almost as off-base as Trump and the mob.

 

[whitehall]

Translation: please comrades, don't jeopardize the old dude's chances by opening the door to criticism of foreign policy. There are enough messes to deal with at home if anyone was paying attention.

 

[jwoodie]

We can always count on CrusaderFrank — just like the U.S. horse cavalry. I already responded to this sort of “opinion” in comment #9:

Good God, now you're quoting yourself?

 

[konradv]

A lot of truth to this, konradv . The Trumpsters have no common policies on international questions, but a ferocious cultist partisanship that blames everything on “Globalists” or “Democrats” or “Communists” — usually in roughly that order. Of course few have any real ideas of their own, so they just “act tough” and wait on what their leader tells them to think.

That doesn’t mean Democrats or “Establishment” types in the State Department always have better answers to the problems we face internationally. Sometimes the Establishment’s experts are almost as off-base as Trump and the mob.

My main thesis in this thread concerns Taiwan and our relationship. IMO, regardless of our official international stance, there’s an understanding between both parties that we would defend Taiwan…, and China knows it. That doesn’t change because Biden is president.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Actually, then, I disagree. China knows we will try to do what we did in Ukraine: namely send arms and encourage Taiwan to fight … if necessary to the last Taiwanese.

The U.S. will use any Chinese attempt to force Taiwan back into “One China” status (even with “Two Systems”) to isolate and sanction China. But we will not send soldiers or sailors to die in a hopeless war defending Taiwan. At least no rational U.S. leadership will do this today, any more than we have in Ukraine.

Ukraine is of course independent, a recognized sovereign state, and delivering aid to it to fight Putin’s aggression is comparatively both politically and physically easy. This will not be the case on an island 100 miles from the Chinese mainland … should China decide it must take action such as quarantining. Such action may be precipitated by increasing U.S. military aid and pressure on Taiwan not to sell high tech chips to China.

The U.S. military and Pentagon-trusted Think Tanks like RAND are aware of the theatre relationship of forces favoring China. But many U.S. politicians, especially Republican demagogues, don’t seem to care. The Democrats will be pressed to “act tough” too.

 

[Devils_Advocate]

China want a war with the U.S. because China want to be consider the lone Super Power everyone has to bow to…

You will disagree with this as usual but fact is China policies are hostile for all nations of the World and the worst mistake the U.S. ever did was open any form of diplomatic or trade relations with China…

Taiwan will fall and Biden will be blamed but China will not stop there and they will go after other countries like the Philippines, South Korea and even Japan, and when they do I will expect you to write up on how the World shouldn’t be involved…

 

[CrusaderFrank]

We can always count on CrusaderFrank — just like the U.S. horse cavalry. I already responded to this sort of “opinion” in comment #9:

OK, Chang you take this one. Use your TomPaine character they'll think you're an American Patriot

 

[konradv]

Actually, then, I disagree. China knows we will try to do what we did in Ukraine: namely send arms and encourage Taiwan to fight … if necessary to the last Taiwanese.

The U.S. will use any Chinese attempt to force Taiwan back into “One China” status (even with “Two Systems”) to isolate and sanction China. But we will not send soldiers or sailors to die in a hopeless war defending Taiwan. At least no rational U.S. leadership will do this today, any more than we have in Ukraine.

Ukraine is of course independent, a recognized sovereign state, and delivering aid to it to fight Putin’s aggression is comparatively both politically and physically easy. This will not be the case on an island 100 miles from the Chinese mainland … should China decide it must take action such as quarantining. Such action may be precipitated by increasing U.S. military aid and pressure on Taiwan not to sell high tech chips to China.

The U.S. military and Pentagon-trusted Think Tanks like RAND are aware of the theatre relationship of forces favoring China. But many U.S. politicians, especially Republican demagogues, don’t seem to care. The Democrats will be pressed to “act tough” too.

I think an invasion fleet will be sunk, regardless of the party in power and the Chinese know it.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Actually, then, I disagree. China knows we will try to do what we did in Ukraine: namely send arms and encourage Taiwan to fight … if necessary to the last Taiwanese.

The U.S. will use any Chinese attempt to force Taiwan back into “One China” status (even with “Two Systems”) to isolate and sanction China. But we will not send soldiers or sailors to die in a hopeless war defending Taiwan. At least no rational U.S. leadership will do this today, any more than we have in Ukraine.

Ukraine is of course independent, a recognized sovereign state, and delivering aid to it to fight Putin’s aggression is comparatively both politically and physically easy. This will not be the case on an island 100 miles from the Chinese mainland … should China decide it must take action such as quarantining. Such action may be precipitated by increasing U.S. military aid and pressure on Taiwan not to sell high tech chips to China.

The U.S. military and Pentagon-trusted Think Tanks like RAND are aware of the theatre relationship of forces favoring China. But many U.S. politicians, especially Republican demagogues, don’t seem to care. The Democrats will be pressed to “act tough” too.

Who is "we"?

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

I think an invasion fleet will be sunk, regardless of the party in power and the Chinese know it.

The articles and the links I provided do not predict “an invasion” anytime soon. Nor do I expect one. A limited or full “quarantine,” mining harbors, air and missile strikes taking out the Taiwanese Air Force, or just direct “flyovers” and buzzing of cities and airports will surely be the first steps.

Likely this kind of psychological and economic pressure will be linked to certain “reasonable demands” from “the Chinese motherland” to the Taiwan authorities to stop importing Western weapons, stop refusing to sell chips to China, etc.

Of course Xi could miscalculate stupidly like Putin did in Ukraine and end up prematurely trying to invade the island, but the military relationship of forces is overwhelmingly in favor of China long term and all the available evidence shows that China knows it has better alternatives.

 

[Roudy]

What we say and what we will do about Taiwan are two different things. If there’s anything to be said about Biden, it’s that he’s too honest for his own good.

A crooked corrupt politician with a 48 year old history of doing absolutely nothing....Biden.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

The recent sobering RAND corporation report I cited in comment #22 above mistakenly only contained its misleading “summary” with “recommendations.” Here is the full report. I personally find it a terrifyingly unrealistic example of military “wishful thinking,” what might be called Establishment bureaucratic “double think.”

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA1200/RRA1279-1/RAND_RRA1279-1.pdf

 

[konradv]

A crooked corrupt politician with a 48 year old history of doing absolutely nothing....Biden.

You really don’t get it, do you? SMH

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Pelosi’s big trip to Taiwan draws ire from China — and White House
The critics are right, a visit from such a high ranking official would be a serious mistake and the president should ask her to cancel it.

President Biden also seemed to question the wisdom of the trip, but he presented the objection to Pelosi’s visit as coming from military officials rather than directly from him. “The military thinks that it’s not a good idea right now,” Biden said on Wednesday in response to a reporter’s question.

In this case, the military is right. While there is an understandable desire to show support for Taiwan in response to increasing tensions with China, Pelosi’s visit would be a serious mistake that would likely make things worse. Sending one of the highest-ranking U.S. officials to Taiwan is bound to be very provocative, and it would expose Taiwan to additional risks for the sake of nothing more important than a glorified photo op.


The report of Pelosi’s planned visit also comes in the wake of other visits to Taiwan by former top officials, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Secretary of Defense Mike Esper. During his visit, Esper called for an end to U.S. “strategic ambiguity.” Coming so soon after Esper’s remarks, a Pelosi visit would likely be interpreted as another step in the direction of making an explicit U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s defense.

Given that the president already erroneously declared in May that the U.S. has a commitment to fight for Taiwan, there is considerable confusion about the Biden administration’s policy on this question. The apparent lack of coordination between Biden and Pelosi over the August visit has only added to that confusion.

Pelosi's big trip to Taiwan draws ire from China — and White House

The critics are right, a visit from such a high ranking official would be a serious mistake and the president should ask her to cancel it.

responsiblestatecraft.org

The critics are right, a visit from such a high ranking official would be a serious mistake and the president should ask her to cancel it.

Why? Because it hurts the commie's feelings?

Sending one of the highest-ranking U.S. officials to Taiwan is bound to be very provocative,

Maybe Xi needs some of these?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Difficult, yes, but Pelosi (2nd in succession below president should President and VP be out), by now should know better, as it would be nothing but a provocative photo op.

Tip-toe around tyrants long enough and they'll get a big head.

 

[Correll]

I don’t expect any intelligence from the Trumpian “peanut gallery” here, which sees the problem as totally partisan, being centered on Biden having “no balls.” The problem is with the bipartisan U.S drift toward repudiation of the “One China” commitments we made to China decades ago.

We may be heading straight toward a totally avoidable military conflict with China over Taiwan — that will make the world economic problems arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine seem almost insignificant by comparison.

If China is such a bad actor that an independent state receiving a visitor from another government means war,


we should not be trading with them, at all.

 

[MarathonMike]

Yes, I think you have something there. Honesty is the best policy, but sharing one's thoughts is often unwise, if unnecessary.

I agree. Donald Trump understood the power of unpredictability. The Democrats tell our enemies what we will and will not do. Or our top Generals whisper into dictator's ears what he plans to do.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

There are only 2 months of the year when storms subside and the seas are calm enough around Taiwan to support a Chinese invasion.
April and October.

What are the going to invade with? It is estimated that China would need 1.2 million troops to invade the island. Their amphibious capabilities are capable of landing only a small percentage of that number.