Prediction: November Electoral Vote - Clinton 429 - Trump 109

[Toro]

Trump can lose the SW if he flips the rustbelt, which he does. Plus florida and probably NY. He has to make up the loss of latinos with non hispanic men in the rest of the country. Which he can do, and get young women. Young people hate hillary

And Georgia isn't going to go for Clinton once Trump starts courting the black vote, which he will, heavily. He just got out of a primary with the media asking him questions about affiliation with white nationalists. There is no fucking way georgia goes blue, mark this post. I will send you 10 dollars via paypal if Trump loses Georgia.

Blacks aren't going to vote for Trump. They are going to come out for Hillary in size.

Trump is trailing Hillary in NY by 25 points. And it's not like no one in NY knows who they are.

As for GA, Trump could lose because he could lose the Atlanta suburbs. And as much as I appreciate your offer to send me $10, I'll respectfully spare you of that!

How much did Mitt Romney lose New York to Obama?

28%.

United States presidential election in New York, 2012 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Democrats aren't too worried about NY.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

The dems are putting the cart before the horse...it's closer than they think

Poll: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump run tight races in key swing states - CNNPolitics.com

 

[Juicin]

Because economically Trump has 100 times the appeal?

Hillary is a globalist, black Americans occupy per capita the lowest position of any ethnic group on the economic scale

Trump takes pro labor positions at every turn. You'd have to be an idiot to not vote for Trump (assuming you can stomach him). And most black men are aware 95% of Mexican men work in this country. Black men aren't employed at that rate

edit - An aggressive position on illegal immigration benefits no one more than black AMericans, it's not a toxic position. Being tagged with white nationalists is though, so he has to fix that

Black people can't stand Trump.

A separate NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll found that Trump was viewed unfavorably by 86% of black voters and 75% of Latinos. Overall about eight in 10 nonwhite voters in that survey had an unfavorable view of Trump, with about seven in 10 saying their view was "very unfavorable."​

Trump has a huge deficit among nonwhite voters

Yea they view him unfavorably not for his policy platform

It's for mishandling the David Duke questions, (he was trying to pretend he didn't know who david duke was). It's an image problem not a policy platform problem.

Those numbers will be better than Latino numbers once he goes to black communities to tout his new plan to reduce non violent offenders in prison. He just has to go out and do court the black vote. He hasn't done that

Trump has discarded all the systemically bigoted policy of the right but "law and order", and that's next on the chopping block. He can hit Hillary from the left on these issues, he can hang "super predator" around her neck

 

[U2Edge]

There are millions of Republicans that prefer a globalist, centrist, and someone that is a HAWK when it comes to military, defense, and foreign policy. Your forgetting that Trump is driving millions of Republicans to vote for the Democrat this year. Hillary is far closer to Reagan and Bush than Trump is.

Trump completely lost it when he suggested the United States abandon NATO. Thats the opposite of Reagan and will not sit well with many long time Republicans.

Again, I've never voted for a Democrat before. I've voted Republican since the 1980s. But this year, for the first time, I will vote for the Democratic nominee to PREVENT Trump from getting anywhere near the White House.

The majority of the American public wants an end to illegal immigration (although not a wall or mass deportation schemes but amnesty doesn't poll well and open borders sure as shit don't)

The majority of the American public is against free trade, especially when the people we have trade deals with practice protectionism

The majority of the American public doesn't want more foreign intervention. You can ask them about ISIS and they'll say something vague about defeating them. But you can't get them to accept any blood price

His political platform is more in line with the American public of all colors...Whether or not he will govern that way who knows. But beyond "law and order" he's on the right side of all these issues. And I suspect as soon as he's nominated his first move will be to court black voters by suggesting we need less non violent prisoners, save room for the rapists

Most Americans recognize the value of immigration to the United States and know that it is a source of strength for a growing economy and demographically helps the United States as its population ages. There are certain sectors of the country that are against immigration, but its really more just racism and blaming others for changes in society.

Americans love Free Trade because it makes the goods Americans buy everyday cheaper. It also expands business opportunities with increasing exports. Protectionism has a poor record and is outdated in the 21st century.

The majority of the American public wants to continue to protect areas of the world that are vital to United States security and are critical to the United States economy. The Persian Gulf, Japan, South Korea, and Europe remain vital interest of the United States just as they have been for the past 70 years. Abandoning U.S. security commitments abroad will create a world where third World War would be possible. It was U.S. isolationism prior to the first World War and 2nd World War that helped create the conditions that led to those wars.

This will become perfectly clear to everyone when Trump is slaughtered in November.

Unless you're taking advantage of cheap labor in the west most people do not see low skill immigration as a boon

Yes having bodies gives us a slight geopolitical advantage. But the children of Honduran and Mexican illegals who's fathers are educated as well as our middle schoolers are not a boon

Guest workers are only a boon in Saudi Arabia because they treat them like an underclass.

Our guest workers get to go to school with our children and suck up funds for medical care

Almost no one in this country is for limited immigration. The dumbest immigrants should be last in line. That includes the poor mexicans who poor across our borders and drive the wages of poor Americans down.

You're just wrong

Being pro immigrant is a pro capital position, (being pro low skill labor immigration means you really hate poor people and don't understand the implications of having a massive brown underclass)

We want a nation of equals. Not a nation of equals plus hispanics who's majority of descendants won't be assimilated in our lifetime.

If you consider yourself a progressive you should be against low skill immigration. It's terrible for our poor.

Trading an insignificant increase in GDP for a massive loss in GDP per capita and a bigger strain on social services especially in urban areas.

Your failing to see that many wealthy educated whites are not having children. Without immigration the United States would be having a declining population which would result in all kinds of problems. We do not want to suffer the economic and demographic problems that Japan, European countries and even China will be suffering in the coming decades. U.S. immigration is the way it is today largely because that is what society has demanded. People from Latin America come to work in the United States because there are opportunities waiting for them. We need the workers and they desire the work. That is how it has worked since the United States became a country in 1776. Many o f the people who came to the United States in the 19th century would also be defined as "ILLEGAL" based on existing laws. Built up government regulation on immigration has also been a factor in making what was once legal, illegal. A good example of where government interfere's with the business interest of individuals in the United States.

Any Human Being, regardless of age, can get a better education and learn new skills. So just because someone comes to the United States under-educated or under-skilled does not mean they will stay that way.

We can have almost infinite legal immigration. And pull people who are well above the American average in education and IQ

It does not make any sense to ship in people to be our maids or pick our fruit. There is no job an American won't take. There are just wages Americans won't accept.

We had downward pressure on low skill employment for 2 generations. Continuiing to ship in idiots will not be good for poor Americans. Even if you wanted 100 million people over the next 10 years to immigrate. We could do it all legally and get very skilled individuals to come here, we are the most attractive place on the planet to immigrate to.

Hundreds of millions of people living in the third world that have already been educated by their society. We don't need mexicans educated at a 6th grade level to do anything. We are not Saudi Arabia. You're just wrong

We need educated Latinos and everyone else that wants to come. Not people to undercut poor American laborers. Not bring in people who will take 4 generations to assimilate.

Sorry, but your ignoring basic economic realities of immigration and free trade that occur because people in the United States demand it. The United States has a minimum wage, unlike most other third world countries so the idea that the current policy is driving down wages is false. Wages continue to rise or sometimes stagnate and inflation is LOW which is good. Latin American immigration to the United States has been positive for the economy and society far more than it has been negative which is why it has continued for all our countries history and should continue well into the future. It is one of the key reasons why the United States remains one of the strongest countries in the world. Trumps ideas of building a WALL and deporting people are idiotic and would hurt the country and the economy as well as drive the U.S. population towards the democraphic problems that are being suffered in Japan and Europe. U.S. economic growth for the past two centuries has been driven heavily by immigration and as the population grows older immigration will become an even more economic necessity than it has been in the past.

 

[Toro]

Yea they view him unfavorably not for his policy platform

It's for mishandling the David Duke questions, (he was trying to pretend he didn't know who david duke was). It's an image problem not a policy platform problem.

It simply doesn't matter.

See this picture?

Try and imagine Trump sitting down with a plate of fried chicken and a watermelon on Martin Luther King Day saying that he loves blacks.

Do you think they'd support him?

Of course not.

It doesn't matter what his policy positions are. If someone thinks they are being condescended to, or that the message portrays them as second-class citizens, or worse, it doesn't matter what their policies are.

Trump is a demagogue. When he attacks Hispanics, the message to other minorities is "If he can say that about Hispanics, he can say that about me, too." That's why Trump is going to get hammered not only amongst Hispanics, but blacks and Asians too.

 

[rightwinger]

And Quinnipiac already shows Penn OH and FL in play for Trump, so your prediction is already dead...

Recent polls also have Arizona, Utah and Georgia in play, red states that have voted Democrat fewer times over the last 30 years than fingers you have on your hand.

Very true

Those three will push Hillary close to 400 EVs

Not without OH and Pen it won't...lol

And Trump hasn't courted black voters yet. Wait for it and georgia will flip back real quick

Trump is never going to win over mormons or mexicans in NM

Trump will take neither

What makes you think Trump or any Republican can appeal to blacks?

Because economically Trump has 100 times the appeal?

Hillary is a globalist, black Americans occupy per capita the lowest position of any ethnic group on the economic scale

Trump takes pro labor positions at every turn. You'd have to be an idiot to not vote for Trump (assuming you can stomach him). And most black men are aware 95% of Mexican men work in this country. Black men aren't employed at that rate

edit - An aggressive position on illegal immigration benefits no one more than black AMericans, it's not a toxic position. Being tagged with white nationalists is though, so he has to fix that

Blacks have heard Republican trickle down promises for decades. They have resulted in fewer jobs and lower pay

What makes you think they would believe Trump?

 

[NoNukes]

I predict Hillary Clinton will come away with a landslide victory in the November 8th election against Trump. Hillary Clinton will win 429 Electoral Votes to Trumps 109.

These are the only states Trump will win on November 8:

Idaho
Wyoming
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Mississippi
Alabama
South Carolina
Indiana
West Virginia

Trumps largest margin of Victory will be in West Virginia.

The Mormans of Utah will not support Trump.

President Trump will find this post funny.......the new federal prisoner hilary clinton.....will have her computer privileges denied.....

You guys are talking about Trump the same way that you talked about President Romney 4 years ago.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The Mormans of Utah will not support Trump.

I wish I could place a $100 bet with all of you clowns who keep thinking Utah is going Democratic this year.

Trump is going to lose the race, but there is no chance he loses Utah.

 

[Toro]

The Mormans of Utah will not support Trump.

I wish I could place a $100 bet with all of you clowns who keep thinking Utah is going Democratic this year.

Trump is going to lose the race, but there is no chance he loses Utah.

Why do you think?

The polls are dead even and Utah handed Trump his biggest defeat by far.

I wouldn't bet on Hillary winning, but I wouldn't take the other side of that either.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Ohio and Utah will go for Donnie plus the others given in the OP.

HRC will smash the other leftist at the top of the tickets.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The Mormans of Utah will not support Trump.

I wish I could place a $100 bet with all of you clowns who keep thinking Utah is going Democratic this year.

Trump is going to lose the race, but there is no chance he loses Utah.

You clearly do not know Mormon Utah. Yes, there is a decent chance he could lose Utah. Mia Love will not return to Congress, I think.

But I happen to think that Trump will probably win Utah by a % point or two.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I think a more accurate prediction would be. .

Trump: 8 years
Hillary: 20 to life...

In a perfect world where corruption, bribery and partisan hackery does not exist, sure, you are exactly right.

Just read this morning that the employees of the DOJ have given more than $75,000 to Hillary's campaign.

So in the REAL WORLD, do you honestly think Hillary will get indicted, much less convicted and sentenced to a term with her physically in prison?

Seriously?

 

[JimBowie1958]

Trump sweeps all 57 states.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The Mormans of Utah will not support Trump.

I wish I could place a $100 bet with all of you clowns who keep thinking Utah is going Democratic this year.

Trump is going to lose the race, but there is no chance he loses Utah.

Why do you think?

The polls are dead even and Utah handed Trump his biggest defeat by far.

I wouldn't bet on Hillary winning, but I wouldn't take the other side of that either.

I don't care what one singular poll says. It's a wet dream.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The Mormans of Utah will not support Trump.

I wish I could place a $100 bet with all of you clowns who keep thinking Utah is going Democratic this year.

Trump is going to lose the race, but there is no chance he loses Utah.

Why do you think?

The polls are dead even and Utah handed Trump his biggest defeat by far.

I wouldn't bet on Hillary winning, but I wouldn't take the other side of that either.

I don't care what one singular poll says. It's a wet dream.

The continued polling in Utah reveals that Mormons and most Utahns despise Trump.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The Mormans of Utah will not support Trump.

I wish I could place a $100 bet with all of you clowns who keep thinking Utah is going Democratic this year.

Trump is going to lose the race, but there is no chance he loses Utah.

You clearly do not know Mormon Utah. Yes, there is a decent chance he could lose Utah. Mia Love will not return to Congress, I think.

Your prediction history is not exactly stellar. Mia Love will be just fine.

 

[Juicin]

The majority of the American public wants an end to illegal immigration (although not a wall or mass deportation schemes but amnesty doesn't poll well and open borders sure as shit don't)

The majority of the American public is against free trade, especially when the people we have trade deals with practice protectionism

The majority of the American public doesn't want more foreign intervention. You can ask them about ISIS and they'll say something vague about defeating them. But you can't get them to accept any blood price

His political platform is more in line with the American public of all colors...Whether or not he will govern that way who knows. But beyond "law and order" he's on the right side of all these issues. And I suspect as soon as he's nominated his first move will be to court black voters by suggesting we need less non violent prisoners, save room for the rapists

Most Americans recognize the value of immigration to the United States and know that it is a source of strength for a growing economy and demographically helps the United States as its population ages. There are certain sectors of the country that are against immigration, but its really more just racism and blaming others for changes in society.

Americans love Free Trade because it makes the goods Americans buy everyday cheaper. It also expands business opportunities with increasing exports. Protectionism has a poor record and is outdated in the 21st century.

The majority of the American public wants to continue to protect areas of the world that are vital to United States security and are critical to the United States economy. The Persian Gulf, Japan, South Korea, and Europe remain vital interest of the United States just as they have been for the past 70 years. Abandoning U.S. security commitments abroad will create a world where third World War would be possible. It was U.S. isolationism prior to the first World War and 2nd World War that helped create the conditions that led to those wars.

This will become perfectly clear to everyone when Trump is slaughtered in November.

Unless you're taking advantage of cheap labor in the west most people do not see low skill immigration as a boon

Yes having bodies gives us a slight geopolitical advantage. But the children of Honduran and Mexican illegals who's fathers are educated as well as our middle schoolers are not a boon

Guest workers are only a boon in Saudi Arabia because they treat them like an underclass.

Our guest workers get to go to school with our children and suck up funds for medical care

Almost no one in this country is for limited immigration. The dumbest immigrants should be last in line. That includes the poor mexicans who poor across our borders and drive the wages of poor Americans down.

You're just wrong

Being pro immigrant is a pro capital position, (being pro low skill labor immigration means you really hate poor people and don't understand the implications of having a massive brown underclass)

We want a nation of equals. Not a nation of equals plus hispanics who's majority of descendants won't be assimilated in our lifetime.

If you consider yourself a progressive you should be against low skill immigration. It's terrible for our poor.

Trading an insignificant increase in GDP for a massive loss in GDP per capita and a bigger strain on social services especially in urban areas.

Your failing to see that many wealthy educated whites are not having children. Without immigration the United States would be having a declining population which would result in all kinds of problems. We do not want to suffer the economic and demographic problems that Japan, European countries and even China will be suffering in the coming decades. U.S. immigration is the way it is today largely because that is what society has demanded. People from Latin America come to work in the United States because there are opportunities waiting for them. We need the workers and they desire the work. That is how it has worked since the United States became a country in 1776. Many o f the people who came to the United States in the 19th century would also be defined as "ILLEGAL" based on existing laws. Built up government regulation on immigration has also been a factor in making what was once legal, illegal. A good example of where government interfere's with the business interest of individuals in the United States.

Any Human Being, regardless of age, can get a better education and learn new skills. So just because someone comes to the United States under-educated or under-skilled does not mean they will stay that way.

We can have almost infinite legal immigration. And pull people who are well above the American average in education and IQ

It does not make any sense to ship in people to be our maids or pick our fruit. There is no job an American won't take. There are just wages Americans won't accept.

We had downward pressure on low skill employment for 2 generations. Continuiing to ship in idiots will not be good for poor Americans. Even if you wanted 100 million people over the next 10 years to immigrate. We could do it all legally and get very skilled individuals to come here, we are the most attractive place on the planet to immigrate to.

Hundreds of millions of people living in the third world that have already been educated by their society. We don't need mexicans educated at a 6th grade level to do anything. We are not Saudi Arabia. You're just wrong

We need educated Latinos and everyone else that wants to come. Not people to undercut poor American laborers. Not bring in people who will take 4 generations to assimilate.

Sorry, but your ignoring basic economic realities of immigration and free trade that occur because people in the United States demand it. The United States has a minimum wage, unlike most other third world countries so the idea that the current policy is driving down wages is false. Wages continue to rise or sometimes stagnate and inflation is LOW which is good. Latin American immigration to the United States has been positive for the economy and society far more than it has been negative which is why it has continued for all our countries history and should continue well into the future. It is one of the key reasons why the United States remains one of the strongest countries in the world. Trumps ideas of building a WALL and deporting people are idiotic and would hurt the country and the economy as well as drive the U.S. population towards the democraphic problems that are being suffered in Japan and Europe. U.S. economic growth for the past two centuries has been driven heavily by immigration and as the population grows older immigration will become an even more economic necessity than it has been in the past.

You think the minimum wage is an appropriate wage for an American citizen?

It's difficult to live on double minimum wage. It has not been positive for the economy unless you only look at GDP.

It has strained our system, we treat mexicans much better than the GDP they produce would make economic sense to.

Again you have not explained why we want middle shcool educated latinos as opposed to high IQ inidivudals that speak perfect English.

You stupid white trash

You're taking a pro capital position. You're on the same side as teh rich libertarians. Poor mexicans are not a boon to this country in any way. Economically and certanily not geopolticially.

Mexicans are literally colonizing the SW, New Mexico is going to be majority mexican soon.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The Mormans of Utah will not support Trump.

I wish I could place a $100 bet with all of you clowns who keep thinking Utah is going Democratic this year.

Trump is going to lose the race, but there is no chance he loses Utah.

You clearly do not know Mormon Utah. Yes, there is a decent chance he could lose Utah. Mia Love will not return to Congress, I think.

Your prediction history is not exactly stellar. Mia Love will be just fine.

Other than the house in 2010 my prediction history is very, very good.

I called Harry two months out that he would beat Angle easily.

I said that Love would not get 52% in a year everyone else would clean up. She got 50%.

If Trump tanks, as I expect he will, Owens will beat her by five points.

 

[Juicin]

Recent polls also have Arizona, Utah and Georgia in play, red states that have voted Democrat fewer times over the last 30 years than fingers you have on your hand.

Very true

Those three will push Hillary close to 400 EVs

Not without OH and Pen it won't...lol

And Trump hasn't courted black voters yet. Wait for it and georgia will flip back real quick

Trump is never going to win over mormons or mexicans in NM

Trump will take neither

What makes you think Trump or any Republican can appeal to blacks?

Because economically Trump has 100 times the appeal?

Hillary is a globalist, black Americans occupy per capita the lowest position of any ethnic group on the economic scale

Trump takes pro labor positions at every turn. You'd have to be an idiot to not vote for Trump (assuming you can stomach him). And most black men are aware 95% of Mexican men work in this country. Black men aren't employed at that rate

edit - An aggressive position on illegal immigration benefits no one more than black AMericans, it's not a toxic position. Being tagged with white nationalists is though, so he has to fix that

Blacks have heard Republican trickle down promises for decades. They have resulted in fewer jobs and lower pay

What makes you think they would believe Trump?

Well if he was facing an actual liberal I might agree

But in this election the platforms are switched. Obviously facing Obama Trump would not take a significant percentage of the black vote.

Hillary though? Love for Bill is only going to take her so far. If Trump takes a quarter of the back vote he wins the election., And it's not that crazy to thikn he'll win black men

 

[SwimExpert]

The Mormans of Utah will not support Trump.

I wish I could place a $100 bet with all of you clowns who keep thinking Utah is going Democratic this year.

Trump is going to lose the race, but there is no chance he loses Utah.

You clearly do not know Mormon Utah. Yes, there is a decent chance he could lose Utah. Mia Love will not return to Congress, I think.

Your prediction history is not exactly stellar. Mia Love will be just fine.

Other than the house in 2010 my prediction history is very, very good.

I called Harry two months out that he would beat Angle easily.

I said that Love would not get 52% in a year everyone else would clean up. She got 50%.

If Trump tanks, as I expect he will, Owens will beat her by five points.

It depends on WHY he tanks. If he tanks because Republicans flee to Clinton, or don't vote for President, Love will be fine. If he tanks because Republicans stay home, Love might be in trouble.