Repeal & Replace and House Seats

[william the wie]

Barring political catastrophe the GOP senate will pick up at least some seats in 2018 no matter what. The house on the otherhand is in big trouble if they don't get if they neither repeal nor replace Obamadisaster. It looks like neither will pass. How bad do you expect it to get?

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Barring political catastrophe the GOP senate will pick up at least some seats in 2018 no matter what.

Really? And you base this on what genius analysis?

 

[william the wie]

there are far more marginal or retirement aged D senators up for reelection in 2018 who don't have Obama to pull them across the finish line as he did in 2012.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

there are far more marginal or retirement aged D senators up for reelection in 2018 who don't have Obama to pull them across the finish line as he did in 2012.

Midterms generally favor the party not in the White House.

 

[william the wie]

there are far more marginal or retirement aged D senators up for reelection in 2018 who don't have Obama to pull them across the finish line as he did in 2012.

Midterms generally favor the party not in the White House.

True and if not for the truly crappy D senate incumbents up for reelection and the crappy finances of traditional blue states I would be holding your position and I would expect at least a two seat R loss in the senate. internal and international tax flight and job flight from blue states is likely to go off the charts based on the taxes already enacted. Several blue state revolts against state incumbents are baked in.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

there are far more marginal or retirement aged D senators up for reelection in 2018 who don't have Obama to pull them across the finish line as he did in 2012.

Midterms generally favor the party not in the White House.

True and if not for the truly crappy D senate incumbents up for reelection and the crappy finances of traditional blue states I would be holding your position and I would expect at least a two seat R loss in the senate. internal and international tax flight and job flight from blue states is likely to go off the charts based on the taxes already enacted. Several blue state revolts against state incumbents are baked in.

Where do you think Republicans are going to gain?

 

[william the wie]

FL and WV are the two most vulnerable cases I am aware of. Both formerly popular D governors of their state. I live in Florida and while Nelson is a nice guy he carried way too much water for Reid to get reelected. Manchin got hit really hard on the Epipen disaster because his daughter runs the company that caused that disaster and Trump was the one that came out against the Obama era regulations that was killing the state.
also he is to the right of 10-20 R senators. So he will probably have a bruising primary fight because the money people in the Democratic party hate him.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

FL and WV are the two most vulnerable cases I am aware of. Both formerly popular D governors of their state. I live in Florida and while Nelson is a nice guy he carried way too much water for Reid to get reelected. Manchin got hit really hard on the Epipen disaster because his daughter runs the company that caused that disaster and Trump was the one that came out against the Obama era regulations that was killing the state.
also he is to the right of 10-20 R senators. So he will probably have a bruising primary fight because the money people in the Democratic party hate him.

Bill Nelson has been elected to the Senate three times and neither of his two reelections were close. There is no indication that he is vulnerable. Joe Manchin is widely popular in West Virginia. Neither of these two are ranked by any political entity as being in jeopardy. The one Senator considered to be most vulnerable next year is Dean Heller here in Nevada, a Republican.

 

[william the wie]

Living here in FL I hereby state you are full of shit on Nelson. As to Manchin helping his daughter kill little kids with the price of Epipen, that's a gimme to opponents from either party.

 

[Coyote]

Living here in FL I hereby state you are full of shit on Nelson. As to Manchin helping his daughter kill little kids with the price of Epipen, that's a gimme to opponents from either party.

Manchin is very popular...I live in WV, and at this point he isn't threatened.