Russian casualties in Ukraine quickly approaching that of Soviet-Afghan War

[theHawk]

Who else to believe? US intel i now saying over 9,000 and Russia is saying a couple hundred. You lived through the Cold War, right? Tell me Russia doesn't use propaganda.

Why would I believe any of them? Our government lies about almost everything, and it’s neck deep in corruption with the Ukraine. Nor do I believe Russia.

 

[JGalt]

Why would I believe any of them? Our government lies about almost everything, and it’s neck deep in corruption with the Ukraine. Nor do I believe Russia.

I have to believe someone. More dead Russian soldiers has never been a problem for me.

 

[theHawk]

I have to believe someone. More dead Russian soldiers has never been a problem for me.

Whatever gets your rocks off.

 

[para bellum]

Well, last Monday the numbers were briefly posted on Russian media- 9861 dead and more than 16K injured.

It was quickly taken down, and the MoD is still saying 498, which is the same number from the beginning of March. Clearly that's not the real number.

NATO estimates 7-15K dead and 3:1 injured. So 21K-60K total casualties. A Russian division is ~12K, so that is 2-5 division equivalents from a starting force of 12-15 such formations.

Russia began this with 280K active duty forces. So not counting small garrisons in places like Moldova and the REMF types, virtually all of Putins active duty combat forces are now committed in Ukraine.

They are conscripting kids and old men in DNR and LNR and giving them Mosin-Nagants. They are asking for donations of food and medicines (specifically mentioning insulin) from civilians in Russia. The idea that they would send insulin-dependent men into combat is remarkable in itself.

China is providing MRE's, which are notoriously considered the worst in the world, so in addition to begin bogged down they are eating shit.

Russia still has a lot of armor in reserve, but Ukraine is getting a lot of support and both sides are still at about 90% of their pre-invasion force levels. But the ground won't dry up until May so the Russians are road-bound and sitting ducks. The armored columns do not include a dedicated armor recovery vehicle, and most of the trucks don't even have winches- so they get stuck in the mud and can't get unstuck.

And they've lost 40% of their trucks, which means their logistics are AFU and that is really hard to fix because sanctions mean they can't get parts.

Ukraine is asking for 500 Javelins and 500 Stingers per day, along with ADA and aircraft. There is some movement on the S-300's from Slovakia and possibly Bulgaria and Greece- The Netherlands and Germany are sending patriots to Slovakia to backfill. More aircraft is still a non-starter at this point.

No one knows what is happening at the Kremlin. There is some rumbling, but I think Putin has a tight grip and doesn't much care of a few oligarchs are unhappy.

I've been watching to see if Putin sallies any Delta's from Severodvinsk. They went out on a "navigation exercise" in the beginning of March but all returned. So far no movement. If they leave port, it's a safe assumption they will be sitting under the ice cap.

 

[JGalt]

Well, last Monday the numbers were briefly posted on Russian media- 9861 dead and more than 16K injured.

It was quickly taken down, and the MoD is still saying 498, which is the same number from the beginning of March. Clearly that's not the real number.

NATO estimates 7-15K dead and 3:1 injured. So 21K-60K total casualties. A Russian division is ~12K, so that is 2-5 division equivalents from a starting force of 12-15 such formations.

Russia began this with 280K active duty forces. So not counting small garrisons in places like Moldova and the REMF types, virtually all of Putins active duty combat forces are now committed in Ukraine.

They are conscripting kids and old men in DNR and LNR and giving them Mosin-Nagants. They are asking for donations of food and medicines (specifically mentioning insulin) from civilians in Russia. The idea that they would send insulin-dependent men into combat is remarkable in itself.

China is providing MRE's, which are notoriously considered the worst in the world, so in addition to begin bogged down they are eating shit.

Russia still has a lot of armor in reserve, but Ukraine is getting a lot of support and both sides are still at about 90% of their pre-invasion force levels. But the ground won't dry up until May so the Russians are road-bound and sitting ducks. The armored columns do not include a dedicated armor recovery vehicle, and most of the trucks don't even have winches- so they get stuck in the mud and can't get unstuck.

And they've lost 40% of their trucks, which means their logistics are AFU and that is really hard to fix because sanctions mean they can't get parts.

Ukraine is asking for 500 Javelins and 500 Stingers per day, along with ADA and aircraft. There is some movement on the S-300's from Slovakia and possibly Bulgaria and Greece- The Netherlands and Germany are sending patriots to Slovakia to backfill. More aircraft is still a non-starter at this point.

No one knows what is happening at the Kremlin. There is some rumbling, but I think Putin has a tight grip and doesn't much care of a few oligarchs are unhappy.

I've been watching to see if Putin sallies any Delta's from Severodvinsk. They went out on a "navigation exercise" in the beginning of March but all returned. So far no movement. If they leave port, it's a safe assumption they will be sitting under the ice cap.

Russia is also using Chechen units along with their own soldiers. I read a report yesterday that some of the commanders are using the Chechens to shoot Russian soldiers if they desert.

 

[para bellum]

Russia is also using Chechen units along with their own soldiers. I read a report yesterday that some of the commanders are using the Chechens to shoot Russian soldiers if they desert.

IIRC the Chechens are part of the National Guard which is Putin's own private army. They are enforcers. Better equipped, and they don't get into direct combat with the UA. When you see the pictures, their uniforms are always spotless and they are fully kitted out.

Meanwhile, the RA has lost another General, the count is now 7 Russians plus one Chechen. Also the Commander of the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade was fragged (actually run over by a tank) by his own men for incurring too many casualties.

In the southern front, Ukraine handed a severe defeat to the Russians at Voznesensk, have broken the siege on Mykolaiv, and managed to push the Russians back 100km to the outskirts of Kherson. Kherson is now contested, Russia does not have control of the city.

The counteroffensive in the north has Russian forces around Kiev at risk of being encircled.