TheProgressivePatriot
Gold Member
First off, your inaccurate and manipulated data doesn't disprove the fact that gays are in open relationships at a far higher rate and have far more sexual partners, exposing their dysfunction and deviancy. Also, your study goes by the divorce probability for a marriage, it doesn't delineate by couple. It just calculates the total number of marriages, it doesn't account for the fact that individuals get multiple divorces, and once you get one, you are more likely to divorce again. Far less than 33% of heterosexuals couples divorce. But your data doesn't mention this.Same-sex divorce rate lower than heterosexual couplesDo you have data to support your claim that the rise in single motherhood has directly correlated with the rise of the welfare state, and federal assistance for single moms?
In a forthcoming study for the journal Demography, Robert Moffitt, an economist at Johns Hopkins University, details how the poorest single-parent families—80 percent of which are headed by single mothers—receive 35 percent less in government transfers than they did three decades ago. Also, the birth rate to unmarried women has been flat since 2006 and declined in 2014
How Welfare Reform Left Single Moms Behind - The Atlantic
Share of births to unmarried women dips reversing a long trend Pew Research Center
Relationship Between the Welfare State and Crime Cato InstituteAt the same time, the evidence of a link between the availability of welfare and out-of-wedlock births is overwhelming. There have been 13 major studies of the relationship between the availability of welfare benefits and out-of-wedlock birth. Of these, 11 found a statistically significant correlation. Among the best of these studies is the work done by June O’Neill for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Holding constant a wide range of variables, including income, education, and urban vs. suburban setting, the study found that a 50 percent increase in the value of AFDC and foodstamp payments led to a 43 percent increase in the number of out-of-wedlock births.(7) Likewise, research by Shelley Lundberg and Robert Plotnick of the University of Washington showed that an increase in welfare benefits of $200 per month per family increased the rate of out-of-wedlock births among teenagers by 150 percent.(8)
But in addition to this data, it is just common sense. If you subsidize something, you get more of it. Humans are resource maximizing beings that respond to economic signals. If women knew there wasn't a safety net where their poor decision wasn't subsidized, they would be less likely to make that poor decision. Obviously, such a program will have to phased out overtime, and you can't just cut aid to already born children. At the most, it should be a state issue, but even at my state level, I wouldn't support it because it just creates more of the problem it tries to solve.
It appears that this thread has been run off the rails. How did we get from SCOTUS and same sex marriage to welfare and crime? Let me take a stab at it. The same declining social and sexual morals that allowed gay marriage has resulted in more single parent families and thus more welfare, poverty and crime. Is that it?
If so, it still has NOTHING to do with same sex marriage. Same sex marriage has NO effect on the behavior or values of heterosexual people who will do what they do regardless.
However, same sex marriage WILL have an effect on gay and lesbian families and the well being of their children. Those children will enjoy greater financial security and family stability and be less likely to wind up on welfare. Then there are all of those children who are wards of the state who might be adopted by gay and lesbian couples. We might just come out ahead.
But while we are on the subject of social safety nets, I will finish by saying that it is not those programs that cause the poverty, it is capitalism. With capitalism there are always winners and losers and poverty and unemployment are built in side effects.
I think the idea homosexual relations are "stable" has no basis in reality. You have an incredibly sanitized view of homosexuality that is given to you by mass media. But it isn't really the case. 55% of gay couples are either in an open relationship(47%) or "not sure"(8%).
Many gay couples negotiate open relationships - SFGate
Capitalism(the private ownership of the means of production), does not cause women to have sex out of wedlock.
SINCE May 2008 just nine civil unions pledged between members of the same sex as an alternative to marriage have been terminated in the ACT.
It is a 1.1 per cent failure rate with 799 gay unions performed in the capital during the period.
In the same period there were 8711 marriages and 6965 divorces granted in the ACT.
Adjunct Associate Professor of Clinical Psychology at the University of Canberra Amanda Gordon said a straight comparison was not possible as the heterosexual divorce rate would include those married prior to 2008.
According to the Bureau of Statistics, the median length of marriage before separation in the ACT was 9.4 years with most couples divorcing almost 13 years after saying ''I do''.
But the probability that a traditional marriage will end in divorce is about 33 per cent.
Dr Gordon said early indications showed that gay couples were staying together longer. She attributed this to the lack of expectation to getting hitched and the conscious decision to do so.
''There are very few [terminations] because people have thought it through very carefully and understand the implications. … they are actually thinking very hard about the significance and importance of making it work.''
She said many people who were married in the traditional way had less commitment to the whole idea of marriage. ''They didn't have to work for it, if you like. If it ends they can do it again.''
As equality occurs, Dr Gordon said the gay marriage and divorce rate could well mirror heterosexual marriage.
''If homosexual couples slip in to marriage the way we do then I think you will find the same level of distress in a relationship as other people … these figures go some way to prove that if you put hard work into a relationship you can make it work, because these relationships have lasted the five-year distance in a way that is different to traditional marriages,'' she said.
''They don't take it for granted.''
also, homosexuals don't enter committed relationships or marriage at nearly the same rates. Even in the Netherlands, where gay marriage has been legal for years, only 20% of gay couples are married are married.
But back to your inaccurate and manipulated data
Same-sex divorce rate not as low as it seemed - The Washington PostThe error is subtle, and I learned of it via an email from a demographer, who wrote:
Looking at the way they did things, it seems to me that they understate divorce rates by roughly a factor of two in their calculation. What they want is an occurence-exposure rate, which is obtained by dividing the number events by the person-years of exposure. They have the events (e.g. 132 divorces in Vermont). They then need to estimate the exposure. They do this by dividing by the total number of marriages (about 3,700 for VT) and dividing again by the years that same-sex marriage has been allowed (about 4.33 VT).
A moment’s reflection (or a bit longer in my case) makes it clear that this overstates the person-years of exposure. Since not all of the couples married 4.33 years ago, they should not all be counted as contributing 4.33 years. The average couple married half way through the interval, and so contributed only about 2 years.
So, this means we should double their “Average annual dissolution rate” to get something that is comparable to the divorce rate they are calculating for the general population.
A factor of 2—that’s a lot! In particular, it completely destroys the finding that same-sex marriage dissolution rates are lower than traditional-marriage divorce rates. Once you correct for that factor of 2, you get a rate of 2% per year, same as for traditional marriages.
First of all, I have debunked this horseshit time and again and I'm not going to waist my time doing it again to try and convince your twisted and bigoted narrow mind. More importantly, regardless of any of this, it has nothing to do with the issue of the legality of same sex marriage. THAT is the subject of this thread. It is just stupid and meaningless to try to use this stuff as an argument against same sex marriage. It is a Non sequitur