Reagan's economy didn't do all it intended. You only tell some of the factors. The debate over Reagan's successes and failures rages on.
BW Online | June 21, 2004 | The Real Economic Legacy Of Ronald Reagan
Inevitably, the measure of Reagan's legacy of the '80s must be taken against what followed: the Clinton years of the '90s. Reagan became President when America was economically sclerotic. His tax changes, combined with a tight monetary policy, helped to make the country competitive again. The price paid, however, was a soaring budget deficit. Reagan and his supply-side advisers believed that big tax cuts would pay for themselves by generating higher tax revenues through greater economic growth. It never happened.
President Clinton took office in 1993, when those huge budget deficits weighed heavily on the markets and the economy. Clinton's turn away from liberal spending to balancing the budget (the "Rubinomics" policy of his Treasury Secretary, Robert E. Rubin) brought confidence back to the markets. When telecom and the Internet took off three years later, the economy ignited.
Yet despite different fiscal policies, the macroeconomic outcomes were remarkably similar. Under Reagan, lower taxes and a soaring budget deficit produced a growth rate of 3.4%. Under Bill Clinton, higher taxes and a budget surplus generated growth of 3.6%. Throughout both Presidencies, from 1982 to 2000, interest rates fell and the stock market roared. So much for ideology.
There were differences, of course. Under Clinton, unemployment was lower than under Reagan, poverty declined more, and wages rose faster for ordinary workers. But the essential truth remains: Strip away doctrinaire rhetoric, and here's the lesson of nearly two decades of economic activity: Decisive Presidential leadership that tackles the greatest threat of the day produces the policy mix best suited for growth. Sometimes that means lower taxes, sometimes higher. Sometimes it means less regulation, sometimes more.
That article states quite clearly that Reagan's tax cuts stimulated the economy and lead to a recovery. What is criticized are the increased deficits, but that wasn't because of tax cuts; that was because of increased spending, the same thing W did. Tax cuts do pay for themselves if you keep spending constant and cut taxes in the right proportion. Federal revenues increased after Reagan took office with extremely lower tax rates. You can't outspend the increase, though. The deficits would have been even higher if he hadn't cut taxes.
Federal revenues increased because the economy grew. Revenues will grow every year, even when rates are held constant, under normal economic conditions. The relevant measure is tax revenue as a percentage of GDP.