Solar Irradiance in a nose-dive...

[TyroneSlothrop]

Global warming is not due to the sun, confirms leaked IPCC ...

the body of peer-reviewed scientific literature and data clearly show that the sun has made little if any contribution to the observed global warming over the past 50+ years (Figure 1).

Figure 1ercent contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), sulfur dioxide (SO2), the sun, volcanoes, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to the observed global surface warming over the past 50-65 years according toTett et al. 2000(T00, dark blue),Meehl et al. 2004(M04, red),Stone et al. 2007(S07, green),Lean and Rind 2008(LR08, purple),Huber and Knutti 2011(HK11, light blue),Gillett et al. 2012(G12, orange), andWigley and Santer 2012(WS12, dark green).

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

You all wanted to know what could cause an ice age to happen out of nowhere and with no warning?

ITS THE SUN STUPID!

Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Fact Sheet : Feature Articles

Daily variation in solar output is due to the passage of sunspots across the face of the Sun as the Sun rotates on its axis about once a month. These daily changes can be even larger than the variation during the 11-year solar cycle. However, such short-term variation has little effect on climate. The graph above shows total solar irradiance on a daily basis. The plot is based on data collected by the ACRIM III instrument, which is currently in orbit. (Graph by Robert Simmon, based on data from ACRIM III)

 

[Crick]

I never said it would not rise, only that 1360 was the last solar siesta and that it has been a very long time since that level of drop has been seen..

It hit 1358.3 in Nov/Dec 2014 sheisskopf.

 

[Crick]

Confirmed with the SOURCE [sic] project that it is not a sensor malfunction and that it is a massive drop that is continuing to drop. The drop in TSI is substantial when you consider that just a 1.5W/m^2 will result in a 2 to 4 deg C drop on earth in rather short order.. They are hopeful that this is a short term drop and when the sun spots return to the face so will TSI.

These types of drops have been very rarely recorded with major sun spots and if they persist long enough it could result in an ice age.

This drop is different than previous ones, which were much smaller and were very short in duration...

Going to be watching this one with great interest... How low will it go and for how long..??

TSI drop is confirmed with Japanese and French earth stations... This is interesting stuff, some of these folks are worried...

IF the current level is sustained for the next two weeks expect to see cooling in the mid latitudes.

SO much for the hottest year ev'a......

Not sure about any of this, what I do know is this massive of a drop in TSI has not been seen in a very long time. What is going to be interesting to watch is how the earths systems respond to this drop in energy entering the planet.

Its a rather bad time for us with the ADO and PDO shifting to cold, leaving little latent heat to combat the loss of incoming radiation.

IF this drop remains, there will be no fudging of the numbers capable of hiding the cooling. Since Jan 19th we have dropped almost 2W/m^2 of TSI... This is getting very interesting as this mirrors the drop in global temps since then..

One of my
***colleagues
over at the Boulder, CO Lab*** tells me this is beginning to look like a step down but was cautious to say that we need to hide and watch..

Time will tell.

Yep!

This is getting a whole lot of attention from a whole lot of people. (its lost on the MSM) One of the folks from the French solar team was asking about what to do if they loose one month of growing season and what foods could they potentially produce. There is some real concern about what is occurring.

If this is a step down in solar output and a long term event it will most certainly be a rude awakening..for a lot of people.

Ahhhh... NO!

Funny you should note that SOURCE is just 11 years old. Other methods of TSI reconstruction have been in use for far longer..

Oh, You can keep laughing at yourself, its amusing to watch a fool be a fool.

Billy Bob's graph of "nose-diving" TSI, eight days (?) after beginning this thread.

 

[Billy_Bob]

It is starting to bounce back... but will it return to base line or will step lower?

It's GONNA step lower because it's in that phase of EXPECTED cyclical downturn... Won't know if it's a deeper minimum for about 6 or 8 years..

I agree... The AGW faithful are going to be sorely disappointed as this recent loss of heat will be felt in coming weeks and months. The northern hemisphere above 9,000 feet has cooled about 1.5 deg C in the last two weeks....

wooooo, haven't you heard? CO2 is a magic heat source, and can warm the planet without the sun.

Yep, .4% of the gas in the atmosphere has more heat than the sun.

ahhhhh.. That's 4 hundred parts per million.. or 0.00004 ... Just sayin..

 

[jon_berzerk]

all the plants in the solar system warmed

This paper describes the cooling observed on Uranus.

http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~layoung/eprint/ur149/Young2001Uranus.pdf

it is understandable that you struggle with the fact that the sun heats and cools

all the planets in the solar system

 

[Crick]

It is starting to bounce back... but will it return to base line or will step lower?

It's GONNA step lower because it's in that phase of EXPECTED cyclical downturn... Won't know if it's a deeper minimum for about 6 or 8 years..

I agree... The AGW faithful are going to be sorely disappointed as this recent loss of heat will be felt in coming weeks and months. The northern hemisphere above 9,000 feet has cooled about 1.5 deg C in the last two weeks....

wooooo, haven't you heard? CO2 is a magic heat source, and can warm the planet without the sun.

Yep, .4% of the gas in the atmosphere has more heat than the sun.

ahhhhh.. That's 4 hundred parts per million.. or 0.00004 ... Just sayin..

What you ought to be saying is "SORRY, I got desperate trying to find something to win a point against these damn warmists with all their scientists and all their science and I thought I saw something on one of my blogs that would make me look like a smartypants like I've always dreamed of being. Sorry it didn't work out guys. But I won't let you down next time. I'm going to go to school and get smart."

That's what you should have said. This whole thread, like so MANY of your threads, Billy, was a complete waste of time and did nothing but demonstrate your many shortcomings.

I would think the pain of being shown wrong over and over and over and over again might actually convince SOME of you to try reading the science with an open mind for once and consider the possibility that, rather than being the product a massive and fantastically effective conspiracy, that AGW might actually be real.

"Come to the Dark Side... we have cookies"

 

[mamooth]

it is understandable that you struggle with the fact that the sun heats and cools
all the planets in the solar system

Glad you finally figured that out. The question is why you think a cooling sun can cause warming.

Venus was observed cooling as well.

NASA - Venus Weather Not Boring After All, NASA/International Study Shows
---
Temperatures measured in 1990-91 are warmer than in 2009.
---

That's quite expected. Climate on Venus is consistent and boring. It has no seasons (due to barely any axial tilt.) It has a nearly perfectly circular orbit. It has a very consistent cloud layer, no precipitation, no oceans. Nothing ever changes, except for the amount of sunlight. And that went down, so the temperature went down.

 

[flacaltenn]

Confirmed with the SOURCE [sic] project that it is not a sensor malfunction and that it is a massive drop that is continuing to drop. The drop in TSI is substantial when you consider that just a 1.5W/m^2 will result in a 2 to 4 deg C drop on earth in rather short order.. They are hopeful that this is a short term drop and when the sun spots return to the face so will TSI.

These types of drops have been very rarely recorded with major sun spots and if they persist long enough it could result in an ice age.

This drop is different than previous ones, which were much smaller and were very short in duration...

Going to be watching this one with great interest... How low will it go and for how long..??

TSI drop is confirmed with Japanese and French earth stations... This is interesting stuff, some of these folks are worried...

IF the current level is sustained for the next two weeks expect to see cooling in the mid latitudes.

SO much for the hottest year ev'a......

Not sure about any of this, what I do know is this massive of a drop in TSI has not been seen in a very long time. What is going to be interesting to watch is how the earths systems respond to this drop in energy entering the planet.

Its a rather bad time for us with the ADO and PDO shifting to cold, leaving little latent heat to combat the loss of incoming radiation.

IF this drop remains, there will be no fudging of the numbers capable of hiding the cooling. Since Jan 19th we have dropped almost 2W/m^2 of TSI... This is getting very interesting as this mirrors the drop in global temps since then..

One of my
***colleagues
over at the Boulder, CO Lab*** tells me this is beginning to look like a step down but was cautious to say that we need to hide and watch..

Time will tell.

Yep!

This is getting a whole lot of attention from a whole lot of people. (its lost on the MSM) One of the folks from the French solar team was asking about what to do if they loose one month of growing season and what foods could they potentially produce. There is some real concern about what is occurring.

If this is a step down in solar output and a long term event it will most certainly be a rude awakening..for a lot of people.

Ahhhh... NO!

Funny you should note that SOURCE is just 11 years old. Other methods of TSI reconstruction have been in use for far longer..

Oh, You can keep laughing at yourself, its amusing to watch a fool be a fool.

Billy Bob's graph of "nose-diving" TSI, eight days (?) after beginning this thread.

Almost as good a false panic as Matthew chasing "hottest" records by 50/100th of a degree. OR all those GW drought and forest fire threads we all chuckled thru.. Or monitoring the day to day variations in CO2..

This forum has a bunch of hookah smoking graph snorting factoid addicts.. So I'm with SKOOKS -- this is amazing entertainment.. Like watching a room full of day traders go from manic to depressive in minutes...

 

[flacaltenn]

Global warming is not due to the sun, confirms leaked IPCC ...

the body of peer-reviewed scientific literature and data clearly show that the sun has made little if any contribution to the observed global warming over the past 50+ years (Figure 1).

Figure 1ercent contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), sulfur dioxide (SO2), the sun, volcanoes, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to the observed global surface warming over the past 50-65 years according toTett et al. 2000(T00, dark blue),Meehl et al. 2004(M04, red),Stone et al. 2007(S07, green),Lean and Rind 2008(LR08, purple),Huber and Knutti 2011(HK11, light blue),Gillett et al. 2012(G12, orange), andWigley and Santer 2012(WS12, dark green).

Wouldn't expect that it would have a CLIMATE WARMING effect over a 50 year period where the solar insolation had PEAKED OUT since the 1960s after a 150 year CLIMB from the last Solar Minimum in the mid 18th century...

So what these charlatans are NOT press releasing -- is that NOTHING moves the Earth's climate in less than 50 years really.. Not with the vast delays in the system and the gigantic amounts of heat storage in the land/ocean..

But then -- having the sun STALL at a Relative Solar Maximum in the 1960s COULD BE felt today 50 years later as "THE PAUSE" in the climb in the recorded temperatures -- ain't that right???

Only the "my little pony" crowd believes the FALSE science they are fed that major forcings from 50 years ago or more does not have a delayed effect on "Climate" for 50 or 200 years..

 

[Crick]

Hey... whatever shakes your tree dude. If you wanna believe, you believe it.

 

[Crick]

Confirmed with the SOURCE [sic] project that it is not a sensor malfunction and that it is a massive drop that is continuing to drop. The drop in TSI is substantial when you consider that just a 1.5W/m^2 will result in a 2 to 4 deg C drop on earth in rather short order.. They are hopeful that this is a short term drop and when the sun spots return to the face so will TSI.

These types of drops have been very rarely recorded with major sun spots and if they persist long enough it could result in an ice age.

This drop is different than previous ones, which were much smaller and were very short in duration...

Going to be watching this one with great interest... How low will it go and for how long..??

TSI drop is confirmed with Japanese and French earth stations... This is interesting stuff, some of these folks are worried...

IF the current level is sustained for the next two weeks expect to see cooling in the mid latitudes.

SO much for the hottest year ev'a......

Not sure about any of this, what I do know is this massive of a drop in TSI has not been seen in a very long time. What is going to be interesting to watch is how the earths systems respond to this drop in energy entering the planet.

Its a rather bad time for us with the ADO and PDO shifting to cold, leaving little latent heat to combat the loss of incoming radiation.

IF this drop remains, there will be no fudging of the numbers capable of hiding the cooling. Since Jan 19th we have dropped almost 2W/m^2 of TSI... This is getting very interesting as this mirrors the drop in global temps since then..

One of my
***colleagues
over at the Boulder, CO Lab*** tells me this is beginning to look like a step down but was cautious to say that we need to hide and watch..

Time will tell.

Yep!

This is getting a whole lot of attention from a whole lot of people. (its lost on the MSM) One of the folks from the French solar team was asking about what to do if they loose one month of growing season and what foods could they potentially produce. There is some real concern about what is occurring.

If this is a step down in solar output and a long term event it will most certainly be a rude awakening..for a lot of people.

Ahhhh... NO!

Funny you should note that SOURCE is just 11 years old. Other methods of TSI reconstruction have been in use for far longer..

Oh, You can keep laughing at yourself, its amusing to watch a fool be a fool.

Billy Bob's graph of "nose-diving" TSI, eight days (?) after beginning this thread.

Almost as good a false panic as Matthew chasing "hottest" records by 50/100th of a degree. OR all those GW drought and forest fire threads we all chuckled thru.. Or monitoring the day to day variations in CO2..

This forum has a bunch of hookah smoking graph snorting factoid addicts.. So I'm with SKOOKS -- this is amazing entertainment.. Like watching a room full of day traders go from manic to depressive in minutes...

And who do you believe went from manic to depressive?

 

[flacaltenn]

You all wanted to know what could cause an ice age to happen out of nowhere and with no warning?

ITS THE SUN STUPID!

Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Fact Sheet : Feature Articles

Daily variation in solar output is due to the passage of sunspots across the face of the Sun as the Sun rotates on its axis about once a month. These daily changes can be even larger than the variation during the 11-year solar cycle. However, such short-term variation has little effect on climate. The graph above shows total solar irradiance on a daily basis. The plot is based on data collected by the ACRIM III instrument, which is currently in orbit. (Graph by Robert Simmon, based on data from ACRIM III)

Sunspots......

 

[Billy_Bob]

It is starting to bounce back... but will it return to base line or will step lower?

It's GONNA step lower because it's in that phase of EXPECTED cyclical downturn... Won't know if it's a deeper minimum for about 6 or 8 years..

I agree... The AGW faithful are going to be sorely disappointed as this recent loss of heat will be felt in coming weeks and months. The northern hemisphere above 9,000 feet has cooled about 1.5 deg C in the last two weeks....

wooooo, haven't you heard? CO2 is a magic heat source, and can warm the planet without the sun.

Yep, .4% of the gas in the atmosphere has more heat than the sun.

ahhhhh.. That's 4 hundred parts per million.. or 0.00004 ... Just sayin..

Damn... 1 to many zeros... 0.0004

 

[Crick]

What is?

 

[jon_berzerk]

it is understandable that you struggle with the fact that the sun heats and cools
all the planets in the solar system

Glad you finally figured that out. The question is why you think a cooling sun can cause warming.

Venus was observed cooling as well.

NASA - Venus Weather Not Boring After All, NASA/International Study Shows
---
Temperatures measured in 1990-91 are warmer than in 2009.
---

That's quite expected. Climate on Venus is consistent and boring. It has no seasons (due to barely any axial tilt.) It has a nearly perfectly circular orbit. It has a very consistent cloud layer, no precipitation, no oceans. Nothing ever changes, except for the amount of sunlight. And that went down, so the temperature went down.

--LOL

so the sun does warm mars after all your bullshit

 

[mamooth]

Global warming is not due to the sun, confirms leaked IPCC ...

the body of peer-reviewed scientific literature and data clearly show that the sun has made little if any contribution to the observed global warming over the past 50+ years (Figure 1).

Figure 1ercent contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), sulfur dioxide (SO2), the sun, volcanoes, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to the observed global surface warming over the past 50-65 years according toTett et al. 2000(T00, dark blue),Meehl et al. 2004(M04, red),Stone et al. 2007(S07, green),Lean and Rind 2008(LR08, purple),Huber and Knutti 2011(HK11, light blue),Gillett et al. 2012(G12, orange), andWigley and Santer 2012(WS12, dark green).

Wouldn't expect that it would have a CLIMATE WARMING effect over a 50 year period where the solar insolation had PEAKED OUT since the 1960s after a 150 year CLIMB from the last Solar Minimum in the mid 18th century...

So what these charlatans are NOT press releasing -- is that NOTHING moves the Earth's climate in less than 50 years really.. Not with the vast delays in the system and the gigantic amounts of heat storage in the land/ocean..

But then -- having the sun STALL at a Relative Solar Maximum in the 1960s COULD BE felt today 50 years later as "THE PAUSE" in the climb in the recorded temperatures -- ain't that right???

Only the "my little pony" crowd believes the FALSE science they are fed that major forcings from 50 years ago or more does not have a delayed effect on "Climate" for 50 or 200 years..

 

[mamooth]

Wouldn't expect that it would have a CLIMATE WARMING effect over a 50 year period where the solar insolation had PEAKED OUT since the 1960s after a 150 year CLIMB from the last Solar Minimum in the mid 18th century..

No, because heat doesn't hide magically for a century and then suddenly reappear. Real scientists understand that.

Your theory is a fantasy, and none of your meltdowns or evasions will change that.

You can demonstrate you're not just another boring bitter and frustrated cultist. Show us the function that gives the observed climate as the output, given the observed solar input. Do some actual science, instead of just screaming insults at people who dare point out how you only engage in wild handwaving and refuse to do any actual science.

 

[jon_berzerk]

Wouldn't expect that it would have a CLIMATE WARMING effect over a 50 year period where the solar insolation had PEAKED OUT since the 1960s after a 150 year CLIMB from the last Solar Minimum in the mid 18th century..

No, because heat doesn't hide magically for a century and then suddenly reappear. Real scientists understand that.

Your theory is a fantasy, and none of your meltdowns or evasions will change that.

You can demonstrate you're not just another boring bitter and frustrated cultist. Show us the function that gives the observed climate as the output, given the observed solar input. Do some actual science, instead of just screaming insults at people who dare point out how you only engage in wild handwaving and refuse to do any actual science.

faith is all that is required for the warmist kooks

 

[jc456]

it does? hmmmmm we've been asking for that evidence and to date three years later there are still crickets. So please post where there is any heat in the oceans. Haven't you been following along with the forum? I thought you were. Hmmmmmmm. But dude, you're funny.

OK you are just plain Gish galloping...you are a "genius" LOL that has out thought all of Science...all those agencies NOAA , NASA they bow LOL to you grand mind LOL
Where is evidence of your thesis that "there is no such thing as AGW" you have any facts figures link anything ?

of course you don't ...you ignore the facts I posted the links I posted the direct refutal of your argument and you come back with repetition that "JC456 is some sort of genius who grasps what all of Science does not"...you are ridiculous

well all I ask is the evidence from the other science genius' and to date, nothing. There is no observable data that backs any claim CO2 is a sun. None. Feel free to post up what you have. I bet any material you post will have words like, modeled, expected, should, predict, maybe, but nothing that says from observed data or experimental evidence exists from these tests with a description of a test. I don't need to be a science guru to know that a hypothesis is always tested to conclude a theory. Do you challenge that statement? if not, then post up the experiment that shows by adding 20 PPM of CO2 to the atmosphere that tons more tornadoes will bust out of the sky. i laugh at fools like you who believe because you believe. I'm not even sure what the hell that means, but it is what you follow since you can't produce any evidence.