Study Says Concealed Carry Permits Don't Affect Crime

[Alystyr]

gun criminals are getting minimal sentences

Not just gun criminals, but you're still right.
Every convicted felon in possession of a firearm can be charged with at least one Federal felony, yet very few are.

 

[2aguy]

On Minnesota……

A case in point is this Minneapolis Star Tribune story with the ambiguous headline: “As gun-carrying permits reach historic levels in Minnesota, related crimes remain in check.” Which I guess is another way of saying that crime rates haven’t risen.

The article notes that there are now 200,000 carry permit holders in Minnesota, or around five percent of the adult population. It also points out that 19% of permit holders are women. In Minnesota, as in a number of other states, carry laws have been liberalized by requiring local authorities to issue permits to applicants who are not disqualified by virtue of, e.g., a felony conviction. The result has been a steep increase in the number of permit holders since the law was changed in 2003.

Whether this has been a good thing or a bad thing is what readers of the article want to know, but the Strib reporter isn’t telling:

Opponents had feared that the law would lead to a surge in shootings and gun deaths. But Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension data show that fatalities involving permit holders are rare. In the past five years, there have been five deadly or nonlethal instances of justifiable use of a firearm by permit holders.

“Deadly or nonlethal” would include all firearm usage, so there must have been more than five instances. In any event, all five instances described in the article are cases of self-defense, and none led to charges against the permit holder. Still, the vagueness continues:

The debate over carrying guns has varied little since permit-to-carry laws became the norm more than a decade ago. Both sides can present statistics and reports to prove their points.

Well, not really. When shall-carry legislation was enacted by the Minnesota legislature in 2003, liberals unanimously predicted that it would lead to a bloodbath. Violent crime, they told us, would skyrocket. But it didn’t happen; on the contrary, the incidence of homicide and other violent crimes dropped steadily.

In the five years ending in 2003, the homicide rate in Minnesota averaged 2.6 per 100,000. In the ten years since the law was liberalized, the rate has averaged 2.0 per 100,000, a 23% decline. Moreover, the rate has dropped further as more carry permits have been issued. In the last five years, the rate has averaged only 1.7 per 100,000, a 35% reduction compared with the 1999-2003 average.

 

[Brain357]

The criminal is more than twice as likely to accidently shoot himself dead than be killed by a defender.

That is likely due to the historically low prevalence of lawful CC. It will probably change (for the better) with an increase in CC numbers.

And what is your explanation for why concealed carry does not affect crime rates?

Not directed at me, but it's probably because potential crimes prevented by lawful CC just cannot be quantified by any practical or reliable means.

We have by far the most guns in the world. The death numbers for criminals is not just from carry. More people carrying will make no significant difference.

History would disagree with you, considering that just about everyone used to carry firearms or other weapons in this and other countries in the world, but had very little crime as compared to today.

In my county, I can guarantee you that just about every household is armed...yet we have little or no crime. So what is the difference between my county and the more urban county north of us that has fewer firearms per household but a much larger crime rate?

Most of Europe has low gun ownership and lower crimes rates than the US.

And their criminals get their guns just as easily as our criminals do…they just don't use them as much because their criminal culture is different….but they are now importing more violent criminals from violent countries to commit the violent crime European criminals won't do…so their rates will be going up fairly quickly….

Yes they probably use them less because ownership is much lower.

 

[Dan Daly]

The criminal is more than twice as likely to accidently shoot himself dead than be killed by a defender.

That is likely due to the historically low prevalence of lawful CC. It will probably change (for the better) with an increase in CC numbers.

And what is your explanation for why concealed carry does not affect crime rates?

Not directed at me, but it's probably because potential crimes prevented by lawful CC just cannot be quantified by any practical or reliable means.

We have by far the most guns in the world. The death numbers for criminals is not just from carry. More people carrying will make no significant difference.

History would disagree with you, considering that just about everyone used to carry firearms or other weapons in this and other countries in the world, but had very little crime as compared to today.

In my county, I can guarantee you that just about every household is armed...yet we have little or no crime. So what is the difference between my county and the more urban county north of us that has fewer firearms per household but a much larger crime rate?

Most of Europe has low gun ownership and lower crimes rates than the US.

That doesn't answer my question.

At one time Europe had higher crime rates than the US, while still having less gun ownership. I think you are purposely ignoring the obvious...it's not about the guns, it's about the people and the culture.

 

[2aguy]

gun criminals are getting minimal sentences

Not just gun criminals, but you're still right.
Every convicted felon in possession of a firearm can be charged with at least one Federal felony, yet very few are.

We have story after story of criminals using guns to commit crimes and getting less than 3 years in prison…coming out, and then killing people…..it isn't a gun problem…it is a prosecutor and judge problem.

 

[Brain357]

Here you go…state that have concealed carry and their crime rates have gone down…..
Florida...

Florida Crime Down in 2014, But Murders and Rapes on Rise

The department reported the number of crimes per 100,000 residents dropped by 4.9 percent and was Florida's lowest level in 44 years.

There were 865,392 arrests made last year, down 5.1 percent from 2013.
And what was the point of this thread.....Florida just broke 1.5 million concealed carry permit holders....and the overall crime rate is down, as they hand out 20,000 new permits a month...
And there was a story about the crime rate being down in Minnesota as they reached 200,000 concealed carry permits, about 5% of their population, 19% of whom are women......
*****************************

And concealed carry reaches 1.5 million 9/17/15

Florida Concealed Carry Permits Reach 1.5 Million, Adding 20,000 Each Month

*********************

Minnesota....5% of pop, 200,000 19% of whom are women..and crime rate down...

On Firearms, Reporting Obscures the Truth

Crime has been going down everywhere for over 30 years.

 

[2aguy]

That is likely due to the historically low prevalence of lawful CC. It will probably change (for the better) with an increase in CC numbers.

Not directed at me, but it's probably because potential crimes prevented by lawful CC just cannot be quantified by any practical or reliable means.

We have by far the most guns in the world. The death numbers for criminals is not just from carry. More people carrying will make no significant difference.

History would disagree with you, considering that just about everyone used to carry firearms or other weapons in this and other countries in the world, but had very little crime as compared to today.

In my county, I can guarantee you that just about every household is armed...yet we have little or no crime. So what is the difference between my county and the more urban county north of us that has fewer firearms per household but a much larger crime rate?

Most of Europe has low gun ownership and lower crimes rates than the US.

And their criminals get their guns just as easily as our criminals do…they just don't use them as much because their criminal culture is different….but they are now importing more violent criminals from violent countries to commit the violent crime European criminals won't do…so their rates will be going up fairly quickly….

Yes they probably use them less because ownership is much lower.

Dipshit…you must have missed this story…..from a few days ago…this teenager in Britain had no problem getting a pistol and extended magazines and ammo and bombs……in extreme gun controlled Britain…imagine what is going to happen when all those jihadis get to Europe…

British teen sentenced to life for planned school attack

 

[Brain357]

The criminal is more than twice as likely to accidently shoot himself dead than be killed by a defender.

That is likely due to the historically low prevalence of lawful CC. It will probably change (for the better) with an increase in CC numbers.

And what is your explanation for why concealed carry does not affect crime rates?

Not directed at me, but it's probably because potential crimes prevented by lawful CC just cannot be quantified by any practical or reliable means.

We have by far the most guns in the world. The death numbers for criminals is not just from carry. More people carrying will make no significant difference.

History would disagree with you, considering that just about everyone used to carry firearms or other weapons in this and other countries in the world, but had very little crime as compared to today.

In my county, I can guarantee you that just about every household is armed...yet we have little or no crime. So what is the difference between my county and the more urban county north of us that has fewer firearms per household but a much larger crime rate?

Most of Europe has low gun ownership and lower crimes rates than the US.

That doesn't answer my question.

At one time Europe had higher crime rates than the US, while still having less gun ownership. I think you are purposely ignoring the obvious...it's not about the guns, it's about the people and the culture.

No I am saying carry doesn't affect crime rates. You however seem very confused.

 

[2aguy]

Here you go…state that have concealed carry and their crime rates have gone down…..
Florida...

Florida Crime Down in 2014, But Murders and Rapes on Rise

The department reported the number of crimes per 100,000 residents dropped by 4.9 percent and was Florida's lowest level in 44 years.

There were 865,392 arrests made last year, down 5.1 percent from 2013.
And what was the point of this thread.....Florida just broke 1.5 million concealed carry permit holders....and the overall crime rate is down, as they hand out 20,000 new permits a month...
And there was a story about the crime rate being down in Minnesota as they reached 200,000 concealed carry permits, about 5% of their population, 19% of whom are women......
*****************************

And concealed carry reaches 1.5 million 9/17/15

Florida Concealed Carry Permits Reach 1.5 Million, Adding 20,000 Each Month

*********************

Minnesota....5% of pop, 200,000 19% of whom are women..and crime rate down...

On Firearms, Reporting Obscures the Truth

Crime has been going down everywhere for over 30 years.

And that is when states started issuing concealed carry permits…...

 

[Brain357]

We have by far the most guns in the world. The death numbers for criminals is not just from carry. More people carrying will make no significant difference.

History would disagree with you, considering that just about everyone used to carry firearms or other weapons in this and other countries in the world, but had very little crime as compared to today.

In my county, I can guarantee you that just about every household is armed...yet we have little or no crime. So what is the difference between my county and the more urban county north of us that has fewer firearms per household but a much larger crime rate?

Most of Europe has low gun ownership and lower crimes rates than the US.

And their criminals get their guns just as easily as our criminals do…they just don't use them as much because their criminal culture is different….but they are now importing more violent criminals from violent countries to commit the violent crime European criminals won't do…so their rates will be going up fairly quickly….

Yes they probably use them less because ownership is much lower.

Dipshit…you must have missed this story…..from a few days ago…this teenager in Britain had no problem getting a pistol and extended magazines and ammo and bombs……in extreme gun controlled Britain…imagine what is going to happen when all those jihadis get to Europe…

British teen sentenced to life for planned school attack

What does that have to do with the OP?

 

[Brain357]

Here you go…state that have concealed carry and their crime rates have gone down…..
Florida...

Florida Crime Down in 2014, But Murders and Rapes on Rise

The department reported the number of crimes per 100,000 residents dropped by 4.9 percent and was Florida's lowest level in 44 years.

There were 865,392 arrests made last year, down 5.1 percent from 2013.
And what was the point of this thread.....Florida just broke 1.5 million concealed carry permit holders....and the overall crime rate is down, as they hand out 20,000 new permits a month...
And there was a story about the crime rate being down in Minnesota as they reached 200,000 concealed carry permits, about 5% of their population, 19% of whom are women......
*****************************

And concealed carry reaches 1.5 million 9/17/15

Florida Concealed Carry Permits Reach 1.5 Million, Adding 20,000 Each Month

*********************

Minnesota....5% of pop, 200,000 19% of whom are women..and crime rate down...

On Firearms, Reporting Obscures the Truth

Crime has been going down everywhere for over 30 years.

And that is when states started issuing concealed carry permits…...

Yes and crime went down just as fast in states that didn't have it as states that did.

 

[2aguy]

This is how easy a 19 year old can get a gun in Britain…you know…the gun control paradise…..

Liam Lyburd mass murder plot: Teen sentenced to life - BBC News

 

[2aguy]

Here you go…state that have concealed carry and their crime rates have gone down…..
Florida...

Florida Crime Down in 2014, But Murders and Rapes on Rise

The department reported the number of crimes per 100,000 residents dropped by 4.9 percent and was Florida's lowest level in 44 years.

There were 865,392 arrests made last year, down 5.1 percent from 2013.
And what was the point of this thread.....Florida just broke 1.5 million concealed carry permit holders....and the overall crime rate is down, as they hand out 20,000 new permits a month...
And there was a story about the crime rate being down in Minnesota as they reached 200,000 concealed carry permits, about 5% of their population, 19% of whom are women......
*****************************

And concealed carry reaches 1.5 million 9/17/15

Florida Concealed Carry Permits Reach 1.5 Million, Adding 20,000 Each Month

*********************

Minnesota....5% of pop, 200,000 19% of whom are women..and crime rate down...

On Firearms, Reporting Obscures the Truth

Crime has been going down everywhere for over 30 years.

And that is when states started issuing concealed carry permits…...

Yes and crime went down just as fast in states that didn't have it as states that did.

actually no…the studies show crime went down faster in States with concealed carry laws...

 

[2aguy]

History would disagree with you, considering that just about everyone used to carry firearms or other weapons in this and other countries in the world, but had very little crime as compared to today.

In my county, I can guarantee you that just about every household is armed...yet we have little or no crime. So what is the difference between my county and the more urban county north of us that has fewer firearms per household but a much larger crime rate?

Most of Europe has low gun ownership and lower crimes rates than the US.

And their criminals get their guns just as easily as our criminals do…they just don't use them as much because their criminal culture is different….but they are now importing more violent criminals from violent countries to commit the violent crime European criminals won't do…so their rates will be going up fairly quickly….

Yes they probably use them less because ownership is much lower.

Dipshit…you must have missed this story…..from a few days ago…this teenager in Britain had no problem getting a pistol and extended magazines and ammo and bombs……in extreme gun controlled Britain…imagine what is going to happen when all those jihadis get to Europe…

British teen sentenced to life for planned school attack

What does that have to do with the OP?

Answering a question…and the kid said he got the pistol as easy as buying chocolates…….in strict gun controlled Europe...

 

[Brain357]

This is how easy a 19 year old can get a gun in Britain…you know…the gun control paradise…..

Liam Lyburd mass murder plot: Teen sentenced to life - BBC News

That has what to do with crime rates and concealed carry?

 

[Brain357]

Here you go…state that have concealed carry and their crime rates have gone down…..
Florida...

Florida Crime Down in 2014, But Murders and Rapes on Rise

The department reported the number of crimes per 100,000 residents dropped by 4.9 percent and was Florida's lowest level in 44 years.

There were 865,392 arrests made last year, down 5.1 percent from 2013.
And what was the point of this thread.....Florida just broke 1.5 million concealed carry permit holders....and the overall crime rate is down, as they hand out 20,000 new permits a month...
And there was a story about the crime rate being down in Minnesota as they reached 200,000 concealed carry permits, about 5% of their population, 19% of whom are women......
*****************************

And concealed carry reaches 1.5 million 9/17/15

Florida Concealed Carry Permits Reach 1.5 Million, Adding 20,000 Each Month

*********************

Minnesota....5% of pop, 200,000 19% of whom are women..and crime rate down...

On Firearms, Reporting Obscures the Truth

Crime has been going down everywhere for over 30 years.

And that is when states started issuing concealed carry permits…...

Yes and crime went down just as fast in states that didn't have it as states that did.

actually no…the studies show crime went down faster in States with concealed carry laws...

No it doesn't. See the OP.

 

[Brain357]

Most of Europe has low gun ownership and lower crimes rates than the US.

And their criminals get their guns just as easily as our criminals do…they just don't use them as much because their criminal culture is different….but they are now importing more violent criminals from violent countries to commit the violent crime European criminals won't do…so their rates will be going up fairly quickly….

Yes they probably use them less because ownership is much lower.

Dipshit…you must have missed this story…..from a few days ago…this teenager in Britain had no problem getting a pistol and extended magazines and ammo and bombs……in extreme gun controlled Britain…imagine what is going to happen when all those jihadis get to Europe…

British teen sentenced to life for planned school attack

What does that have to do with the OP?

Answering a question…and the kid said he got the pistol as easy as buying chocolates…….in strict gun controlled Europe...

You are ranting stupidly and off topic.

 

[2aguy]

And their criminals get their guns just as easily as our criminals do…they just don't use them as much because their criminal culture is different….but they are now importing more violent criminals from violent countries to commit the violent crime European criminals won't do…so their rates will be going up fairly quickly….

Yes they probably use them less because ownership is much lower.

Dipshit…you must have missed this story…..from a few days ago…this teenager in Britain had no problem getting a pistol and extended magazines and ammo and bombs……in extreme gun controlled Britain…imagine what is going to happen when all those jihadis get to Europe…

British teen sentenced to life for planned school attack

What does that have to do with the OP?

Answering a question…and the kid said he got the pistol as easy as buying chocolates…….in strict gun controlled Europe...

You are ranting stupidly and off topic.

Right….good come back…..

 

[2aguy]

And here is Dr. John Lott on this study….
Problems with a new study from Journal of Criminology claiming that permitted concealed handguns have no effect on violent crime - Crime Prevention Research Center

As past surveys of the literature have shown, there have been other studies that have found that right-to-carry laws don’t reduce violent crime, though they have been in the distinct minority. Yet, the worst that they can say is that these laws don’t produce a bad effect.

No explanation is offered for why these authors pick the states or years that they examine? This is important because the test that they are preforming compares these states relative to one another during the period that they all have right-to-carry concealed handgun laws. When authors throw out data there had better be a good explanation for why they are doing it, but no explanation is offered here.

These guys seem completely unfamiliar with my findings in the 2nd and 3rd edition of MGLC. That is important because those editions spent significant time going through and talking about what determined the number of permits issued and the impact of the number of permits on the crime rate.

Permit issuance rate depends crucially on the cost of getting a permit (fees, training period, how long the laws have been in effect, also where you can use the permit). This is important in differentiating the supply and demand issues for number of permits issued. For example, during the period studied the cost of a Texas permit was $140 and a training period of 10 hours while in Pennsylvania was $19 and no training.

No explanation is offered for why these costs of getting permits, which differ significantly across these states, are completely ignored.

Despite these problems, it would have been interesting to see the results without including the number of Federally Licensed Firearm dealers, a number that is likely very correlated with the number of permits.

They also have no or virtually no data on permit issuance prior to right-to-carry law being adopted. Strangely permit issuance is as a percent of the total population, not the percent of the adult population, thus adding randomness into the relationship.

 

[Brain357]

And here is Dr. John Lott on this study….
Problems with a new study from Journal of Criminology claiming that permitted concealed handguns have no effect on violent crime - Crime Prevention Research Center

As past surveys of the literature have shown, there have been other studies that have found that right-to-carry laws don’t reduce violent crime, though they have been in the distinct minority. Yet, the worst that they can say is that these laws don’t produce a bad effect.

No explanation is offered for why these authors pick the states or years that they examine? This is important because the test that they are preforming compares these states relative to one another during the period that they all have right-to-carry concealed handgun laws. When authors throw out data there had better be a good explanation for why they are doing it, but no explanation is offered here.

These guys seem completely unfamiliar with my findings in the 2nd and 3rd edition of MGLC. That is important because those editions spent significant time going through and talking about what determined the number of permits issued and the impact of the number of permits on the crime rate.

Permit issuance rate depends crucially on the cost of getting a permit (fees, training period, how long the laws have been in effect, also where you can use the permit). This is important in differentiating the supply and demand issues for number of permits issued. For example, during the period studied the cost of a Texas permit was $140 and a training period of 10 hours while in Pennsylvania was $19 and no training.

No explanation is offered for why these costs of getting permits, which differ significantly across these states, are completely ignored.

Despite these problems, it would have been interesting to see the results without including the number of Federally Licensed Firearm dealers, a number that is likely very correlated with the number of permits.

They also have no or virtually no data on permit issuance prior to right-to-carry law being adopted. Strangely permit issuance is as a percent of the total population, not the percent of the adult population, thus adding randomness into the relationship.

More disgraced Lott. Link the 12 you claim he isn't involved in.