The Blue Phantom Has Returned

[Statistikhengst]

Oh, Nate's a pretty smart dude...

 

[Samson]

^^^^^
And let the games begin........

 

[BluePhantom]

Oh, Nate's a pretty smart dude...

You realize what you are doing to me don't you? You are tempting me to comment in an area i said I would not comment on anymore. This is killing me because I really want to start flapping my gums and preaching "The Gospel According to The Phantom"...but I said I wouldn't comment so I won't.

Man that was like a cocaine addict walking away from a fat line.

WHEW!

 

[Statistikhengst]

Oh, Nate's a pretty smart dude...

You realize what you are doing to me don't you? You are tempting me to comment in an area i said I would not comment on anymore. This is killing me because I really want to start flapping my gums and preaching "The Gospel According to The Phantom"...but I said I wouldn't comment so I won't.

Man that was like a cocaine addict walking away from a fat line.

WHEW!

Well, the answer to that is very simple: open a thread about polling somewhere and maybe, if you behave, I will gladly respond.

But just to give you a small taste of my background:

I recorded, linked, studied and dissected every national and state poll from 2004, 2008 and 2012 and kept (and still keep) a running blog about those data-points, EVERY SINGLE ONE. If you stop over at the elections forum, you will probably stumble over some of my threads....

They should be pretty easy to find, for they are neither blue, nor are they phantoms!

 

[Statistikhengst]

^^^^^
And let the games begin........

The 2014 USMB WORLD CUP of polling.

Stat vs. Phanton

Ref: the inimitable Samson

 

[Samson]

^^^^^
And let the games begin........

The 2014 USMB WORLD CUP of polling.

Stat vs. Phanton

Ref: the inimitable Samson

Be gentle

It appears the phantom has taken a dive even before the national anthems have been sung.

 

[BluePhantom]

Oh, Nate's a pretty smart dude...

You realize what you are doing to me don't you? You are tempting me to comment in an area i said I would not comment on anymore. This is killing me because I really want to start flapping my gums and preaching "The Gospel According to The Phantom"...but I said I wouldn't comment so I won't.

Man that was like a cocaine addict walking away from a fat line.

WHEW!

Well, the answer to that is very simple: open a thread about polling somewhere and maybe, if you behave, I will gladly respond.

But just to give you a small taste of my background:

I recorded, linked, studied and dissected every national and state poll from 2004, 2008 and 2012 and kept (and still keep) a running blog about those data-points, EVERY SINGLE ONE. If you stop over at the elections forum, you will probably stumble over some of my threads....

They should be pretty easy to find, for they are neither blue, nor are they phantoms!

oh YOU are the new polling expert. I got it now. Yeah you know it's a long story but the shorthand is that I was posting statistical analysis leading up to the election but my job got crazy in around July and I stopped analyzing because I was just too busy with other stuff. When the election happened it was the total opposite of what I had predicted but in my own defense I stopped the analysis 3-4 months before the actual election so it's possible that my stats were right at the time but then other things happened to sway the election the other way. I really don't know and there's no way to know for sure. But because my last post had been a prediction of a Romney win (again sometime in July or thereabouts) I was a good sport and posted a thread to eat crow (that'
s what Samson was referring to last night).

I don't know....had I had time to continue the analysis maybe my end prediction would have been accurate...maybe not. We will never know. Regardless my last public prediction was a Romney win so...you know...there it is and so goes my credibility. LOL.

I will be eager to check out your work though.

 

[BluePhantom]

^^^^^
And let the games begin........

The 2014 USMB WORLD CUP of polling.

Stat vs. Phanton

Ref: the inimitable Samson

Be gentle

It appears the phantom has taken a dive even before the national anthems have been sung.

Well it depends on the topic. I am going to avoid or at the very least tread very lightly when it comes to polling analysis. Now get me in a debate about history, religious history, the implications of historical events on modern culture, or especially The Apocalypse or the letters of the Apostle Paul which are probably my strongest topics and you will enjoy the full "Phantom Effect"

I may relax a lot on the statistical analysis, but I am still the Phantom, and the Phantom aint a pussy.

 

[Ropey]

More than one bluephantom on the account.

Still, idiots are proven to be idiots by the very nature of patience.

Time wounds all heels.



QuantumPhantom without the Blue nick or font.

 

[BluePhantom]

Ropey I know we had a history but I don't remember what it was. IIRC we are allies on some topics and viscous enemies on others. My memory suggests more of the latter than the former. If I am interpreting your tone correctly that would probably support my recollections.

 

[Ropey]

Now if it's a Quantum effect, the response should be quick.

 

[Ropey]

^ At the same time even and with the same vacuousness.

 

[Statistikhengst]

You realize what you are doing to me don't you? You are tempting me to comment in an area i said I would not comment on anymore. This is killing me because I really want to start flapping my gums and preaching "The Gospel According to The Phantom"...but I said I wouldn't comment so I won't.

Man that was like a cocaine addict walking away from a fat line.

WHEW!

Well, the answer to that is very simple: open a thread about polling somewhere and maybe, if you behave, I will gladly respond.

But just to give you a small taste of my background:

I recorded, linked, studied and dissected every national and state poll from 2004, 2008 and 2012 and kept (and still keep) a running blog about those data-points, EVERY SINGLE ONE. If you stop over at the elections forum, you will probably stumble over some of my threads....

They should be pretty easy to find, for they are neither blue, nor are they phantoms!

oh YOU are the new polling expert. I got it now. Yeah you know it's a long story but the shorthand is that I was posting statistical analysis leading up to the election but my job got crazy in around July and I stopped analyzing because I was just too busy with other stuff. When the election happened it was the total opposite of what I had predicted but in my own defense I stopped the analysis 3-4 months before the actual election so it's possible that my stats were right at the time but then other things happened to sway the election the other way. I really don't know and there's no way to know for sure. But because my last post had been a prediction of a Romney win (again sometime in July or thereabouts) I was a good sport and posted a thread to eat crow (that'
s what Samson was referring to last night).

I don't know....had I had time to continue the analysis maybe my end prediction would have been accurate...maybe not. We will never know. Regardless my last public prediction was a Romney win so...you know...there it is and so goes my credibility. LOL.

I will be eager to check out your work though.

Well, I really do and sincerely congratulate you for taking the time to make analyses, but even 4-5 months before the GE 2012, state polling composites from all the battleground states were clearly showing an Obama win. Obama was never once behind in the state of Ohio, not even once. Of the more than 100 Ohio polls, any two-week time frame provides us with an average of at least Obama +3 to Obama +4. Actual result: Obama +2.97. My final average: between Obama +3.06 and Obama +3.16 (depending on how many days you want to measure, 7, 5 or 3).

Ditto Pennsylvania, of course, with other margins. Ditto Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico (which was not even a battleground to begin with at all in 2016), Iowa and, excepting a two-week time period, Virginia.

In North Carolina, Obama was consistently behind and indeed, on election night, former Gov. Mitt Romney carried the state by +2.04%. My end average: Romney +2.

The only real surprise was Florida, where in polling, Romney was just a nose ahead of Obama most of the time, but exit polling showed that Cuban-Americans, who used to vote Republican, swung WILDLY for Obama and the % of the Cuban vote was falsely calculated in virtually every poll. End result in Fl: Obama +0.88.

So, although it is admirable that you did analyses, in no way were the numbers pointing to a Romney win in the states that counted at any point in the years 2010, 2011 or 2012.

It's really that simple.

And the beauty of keeping track of every single poll, regardless of the tilt of the pollster, is that I can mathematically prove what I wrote to you, in exquisite detail and without having to bat an eye in order to do it.

I also have a tradition of doing nightly battleground reports starting exactly 42 days out from election night - a tradition that has paid off, one that I will continue in 2016.

For instance, you can see here:


Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: 09/19 was a record setting day in polling for 2012 / Battleground outlook

(pre-Battleground Report from 9/19/2012)

-or-

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Battleground Report 09/25/2012 - T-minus 42 days

(First Battleground Report from 2012, T-minus 42 days)


-or-

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Battleground Report 10/23/2012: T-minus 14 days

(Battleground Report, T-minus 14)


-or-

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Battleground Report 10/30/2012: T-minus 7 days

(Battleground Report, T-minus 7)


-or-

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: FINAL Battleground Report 11/04/2012: T-minus 2 days, DELUXE VERSION

(Battleground Report, T-minus 2)


-or-

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Statistikhengst's FINAL Electoral Landscape (No.8): Obama 303 / Romney 235

(Final predictions)


So, like I said, open a thread on polling, I may just saunter on by.....

 

[Statistikhengst]

^^^^^
And let the games begin........

The 2014 USMB WORLD CUP of polling.

Stat vs. Phanton

Ref: the inimitable Samson

Be gentle

It appears the phantom has taken a dive even before the national anthems have been sung.

 

[BluePhantom]

^ At the same time even and with the same vacuousness.

LMAO. Well you know, I am really loving my return. I am reuniting with old friends and apparently with old enemies as well. You know there are poeple here that I love for many different reasons. I love MeBelle because...well she's MeBelle and how can someone not love MeBelle? I love Jillian because she and I disagree on just about everything, but she's just a great woman and how can you not love her? I love Ravi because if Jillian and I disagreed boy did Ravi and I ever disagree, but when we debated we repped each other over and over. It was like a sportsmanship slap on the ass to say "I disagree but a damn good argument".

It's interesting to me that those I really miss the most are the ones I disagree with politically....except Syrenn...I love Syrenn to death and she and I usually agree.

Anyhow....I am starting to remember you, brother Ropey and it's good to hear from you even though we have historically been on opposite ends. I look forward to debating you again.

 

[Ropey]

^ At the same time even and with the same vacuousness.

LMAO. Well you know, I am really loving my return. I am reuniting with old friends and apparently with old enemies as well. You know there are poeple here that I love for many different reasons. I love MeBelle because...well she's MeBelle and how can someone not love MeBelle? I love Jillian because she and I disagree on just about everything, but she's just a great woman and how can you not love her? I love Ravi because if Jillian and I disagreed boy did Ravi and I ever disagree, but when we debated we repped each other over and over. It was like a sportsmanship slap on the ass to say "I disagree but a damn good argument".

It's interesting to me that those I really miss the most are the ones I disagree with politically....except Syrenn...I love Syrenn to death and she and I usually agree.

Anyhow....I am starting to remember you, brother Ropey and it's good to hear from you even though we have historically been on opposite ends. I look forward to debating you again.

It's all good.

Here's a welcome.

[ame=http://youtu.be/ZHaIf0iVRwI]Shapshifter - YouTube[/ame]

 

[BluePhantom]

Well, the answer to that is very simple: open a thread about polling somewhere and maybe, if you behave, I will gladly respond.

But just to give you a small taste of my background:

I recorded, linked, studied and dissected every national and state poll from 2004, 2008 and 2012 and kept (and still keep) a running blog about those data-points, EVERY SINGLE ONE. If you stop over at the elections forum, you will probably stumble over some of my threads....

They should be pretty easy to find, for they are neither blue, nor are they phantoms!

oh YOU are the new polling expert. I got it now. Yeah you know it's a long story but the shorthand is that I was posting statistical analysis leading up to the election but my job got crazy in around July and I stopped analyzing because I was just too busy with other stuff. When the election happened it was the total opposite of what I had predicted but in my own defense I stopped the analysis 3-4 months before the actual election so it's possible that my stats were right at the time but then other things happened to sway the election the other way. I really don't know and there's no way to know for sure. But because my last post had been a prediction of a Romney win (again sometime in July or thereabouts) I was a good sport and posted a thread to eat crow (that'
s what Samson was referring to last night).

I don't know....had I had time to continue the analysis maybe my end prediction would have been accurate...maybe not. We will never know. Regardless my last public prediction was a Romney win so...you know...there it is and so goes my credibility. LOL.

I will be eager to check out your work though.

Well, I really do and sincerely congratulate you for taking the time to make analyses, but even 4-5 months before the GE 2012, state polling composites from all the battleground states were clearly showing an Obama win. Obama was never once behind in the state of Ohio, not even once. Of the more than 100 Ohio polls, any two-week time frame provides us with an average of at least Obama +3 to Obama +4. Actual result: Obama +2.97. My final average: between Obama +3.06 and Obama +3.16 (depending on how many days you want to measure, 7, 5 or 3).

Ditto Pennsylvania, of course, with other margins. Ditto Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico (which was not even a battleground to begin with at all in 2016), Iowa and, excepting a two-week time period, Virginia.

In North Carolina, Obama was consistently behind and indeed, on election night, former Gov. Mitt Romney carried the state by +2.04%. My end average: Romney +2.

The only real surprise was Florida, where in polling, Romney was just a nose ahead of Obama most of the time, but exit polling showed that Cuban-Americans, who used to vote Republican, swung WILDLY for Obama and the % of the Cuban vote was falsely calculated in virtually every poll. End result in Fl: Obama +0.88.

So, although it is admirable that you did analyses, in no way were the numbers pointing to a Romney win in the states that counted at any point in the years 2010, 2011 or 2012.

It's really that simple.

And the beauty of keeping track of every single poll, regardless of the tilt of the pollster, is that I can mathematically prove what I wrote to you, in exquisite detail and without having to bat an eye in order to do it.

I also have a tradition of doing nightly battleground reports starting exactly 42 days out from election night - a tradition that has paid off, one that I will continue in 2016.

For instance, you can see here:


Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: 09/19 was a record setting day in polling for 2012 / Battleground outlook

(pre-Battleground Report from 9/19/2012)

-or-

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Battleground Report 09/25/2012 - T-minus 42 days

(First Battleground Report from 2012, T-minus 42 days)


-or-

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Battleground Report 10/23/2012: T-minus 14 days

(Battleground Report, T-minus 14)


-or-

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Battleground Report 10/30/2012: T-minus 7 days

(Battleground Report, T-minus 7)


-or-

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: FINAL Battleground Report 11/04/2012: T-minus 2 days, DELUXE VERSION

(Battleground Report, T-minus 2)


-or-

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Statistikhengst's FINAL Electoral Landscape (No.8): Obama 303 / Romney 235

(Final predictions)


So, like I said, open a thread on polling, I may just saunter on by.....

Well my brother, it seems like you have the polling analysis job locked down and I salute you because you know as well as I do, it's a LOT of work. Believe me, I am happy to defer to your expertise on the matter.

I am really sorry brother, but I am not going to get drawn into a debate on polling analysis. That one is your show and I honestly have no desire at all to make a challenge in that regard. My attention is currently on other things.

I really do commend you for you efforts. Most people who read such analyses don't realize how much work is put into it and I do so seriously brother....a big thumbs up for you for for putting in that effort.

It's just not something I am willing to get drawn into right now.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Come on, brother, that was a beautiful line of polling cocaine, there....

 

[Statistikhengst]

^ At the same time even and with the same vacuousness.

LMAO. Well you know, I am really loving my return. I am reuniting with old friends and apparently with old enemies as well. You know there are poeple here that I love for many different reasons. I love MeBelle because...well she's MeBelle and how can someone not love MeBelle? I love Jillian because she and I disagree on just about everything, but she's just a great woman and how can you not love her? I love Ravi because if Jillian and I disagreed boy did Ravi and I ever disagree, but when we debated we repped each other over and over. It was like a sportsmanship slap on the ass to say "I disagree but a damn good argument".

It's interesting to me that those I really miss the most are the ones I disagree with politically....except Syrenn...I love Syrenn to death and she and I usually agree.

Anyhow....I am starting to remember you, brother Ropey and it's good to hear from you even though we have historically been on opposite ends. I look forward to debating you again.

As G-d is my witness, I could swear I first saw the word "rectum", but then my vision cleared up and all was well.

 

[BluePhantom]

^ At the same time even and with the same vacuousness.

LMAO. Well you know, I am really loving my return. I am reuniting with old friends and apparently with old enemies as well. You know there are poeple here that I love for many different reasons. I love MeBelle because...well she's MeBelle and how can someone not love MeBelle? I love Jillian because she and I disagree on just about everything, but she's just a great woman and how can you not love her? I love Ravi because if Jillian and I disagreed boy did Ravi and I ever disagree, but when we debated we repped each other over and over. It was like a sportsmanship slap on the ass to say "I disagree but a damn good argument".

It's interesting to me that those I really miss the most are the ones I disagree with politically....except Syrenn...I love Syrenn to death and she and I usually agree.

Anyhow....I am starting to remember you, brother Ropey and it's good to hear from you even though we have historically been on opposite ends. I look forward to debating you again.

It's all good.

Here's a welcome.

[ame=http://youtu.be/ZHaIf0iVRwI]Shapshifter - YouTube[/ame]

just mildly symbolic. LOL. Honestly it IS good to hear from you. I hope things have been well for you