The global warming thread. Is it for real?

[PMZ]

There's a lot of debate regarding global warming.
For the purposes of this thread I would only like to debate whether the Earth is actually warming or not.

Some will take this for granted while others might say its a myth.

What are your point of views regarding global warming?
Is it real or there is no such thing as global warming?

( I have my viewpoint but I'll wait until I can post links to voice it ).

Do we want to risk whether it is true or not?

The earth very well may be warming slightly

So what?

We'll all be just fine so risking doing nothing is a better alternative than being subjected to arbitrary capriciously enforced overbearing expensive government regulation.

It's tough when one is forced to have to choose between science and extreme conservative media led culthood, isn't it.

Rush being such an intellectual giant and all.

When ignorance is the most compelling option that you have, you must have taken a wrong turn somewhere along the way.

 

[Oddball]

"Comparing an infinitely diverse and flexible global ecosystem to making change at the 7-11 is so absurd as to be self-evident"

And yet denyers do the equivalent here everyday.

I'm not the one comparing the stupid computer models as analogous to making change as a convenience store, Corky.

"Stupid" computer models. That says it all, doesn't it? I think that being a climate reactionary fits you like a glove and was inevitable from birth.

Stupid computer models are not scientific standard, you ignoramus putz.

And comparing them to making change, where your only skill needed is the ability to count to 100, is stupid beyond description.

 

[Skull Pilot]

Do we want to risk whether it is true or not?

The earth very well may be warming slightly

So what?

We'll all be just fine so risking doing nothing is a better alternative than being subjected to arbitrary capriciously enforced overbearing expensive government regulation.

It's tough when one is forced to have to choose between science and extreme conservative media led culthood, isn't it.

Rush being such an intellectual giant and all.

When ignorance is the most compelling option that you have, you must have taken a wrong turn somewhere along the way.

Ignorance huh?

BTW I don't listen to talking heads on the radio nor do I watch them on the idiot box.

You want to talk ignorance? You're the one stuck in a two dimensional pigeonhole where people either listen to right wing morons and believe what they say or they don't.

In other words you're just another fucking sheep.

If the earth is a few degrees warmer we'll all be just fine. There will be no biblical catastrophes.

So go back to bed little sheep and rest up for Sunday dinner, you're on the menu.

 

[flacaltenn]

Here's something to ponder. Airplanes start existence as a computer model, and when built they fly. The models predict it and it happens. Of course, Harry Potter can fly too. You've got us there.

Airplanes don't start out as computer models. *Computer come later in the design process. *And the models are based on a set of physics that are known to produce accurate results. *Would you fly in an airplane based on a computer model that predicts outcomes as well as climate models? If you are going to play with an alogies, at least try to think of one that doesn't, by definition, shoot your point down.

We are already in this airplane, called the climate. And it's changing whether someone models it or not.*

The change has been occuring since the early 1900s.

The "models use natural (e.g. solar) and anthropogenic inputs. Here is a graphic for the inputs to the climate models. Note that both natural (including solar) and anthropogenic effects are included."

"Natural effects only, in blue, are NOT sufficient to produce agreement with the data, especially in the last 30 years. "

And this is one airplane that noone will be disembarking soon.

Climate Models

Those charts don't look at Natural Forcings back far enough.. The total sun irradiance has increased about 1W/m2 on the earth's surface since 1700. Climate change doesn't happen overnight. And limiting those charts to 1900 -- doesn't give a clear picture of the warming that started 1000s of years ago...

The fact that the solar forcing rise basically stalled a couple decades ago is quite interesting. If I was comparing cash registers to climate models -- I might even say that "correlates well" with a delayed lull in the surface warming..

 

[PMZ]

Here's something to ponder. Airplanes start existence as a computer model, and when built they fly. The models predict it and it happens. Of course, Harry Potter can fly too. You've got us there.

Airplanes don't start out as computer models. *Computer come later in the design process. *And the models are based on a set of physics that are known to produce accurate results. *Would you fly in an airplane based on a computer model that predicts outcomes as well as climate models? If you are going to play with an alogies, at least try to think of one that doesn't, by definition, shoot your point down.

We are already in this airplane, called the climate. And it's changing whether someone models it or not.*

The change has been occuring since the early 1900s.

The "models use natural (e.g. solar) and anthropogenic inputs. Here is a graphic for the inputs to the climate models. Note that both natural (including solar) and anthropogenic effects are included."

"Natural effects only, in blue, are NOT sufficient to produce agreement with the data, especially in the last 30 years. "

And this is one airplane that noone will be disembarking soon.

Climate Models

As it goes down in flames owing to the fact that it was designed on the back of an envelope, the only good news is that it is nearly empty. But those in it are still convinced that by not believing in gravity, they still have a chance.

 

[westwall]

Here's something to ponder. Airplanes start existence as a computer model, and when built they fly. The models predict it and it happens. Of course, Harry Potter can fly too. You've got us there.

Airplanes don't start out as computer models. Computer come later in the design process. And the models are based on a set of physics that are known to produce accurate results. Would you fly in an airplane based on a computer model that predicts outcomes as well as climate models? If you are going to play with an alogies, at least try to think of one that doesn't, by definition, shoot your point down.

Add airplane design to the growing list of things that you know nothing about. Complex mechanisms today begin life as 3D CAD models with finite element analysis.

Climate models are much the same. If this happens what changes does it cause in its immediate locale and how does that spread over time. Only denyers use paper and pencil guesses to keep alive hope for a different answer.

Science is objective. Hoping for a particular outcome is voodoo.

Computer Assisted Design is not a model.......idiot. It is a drafting table in a computer. Have you always been this stupid are did you have to have to have pharmaceutical help?

 

[PMZ]

The earth very well may be warming slightly

So what?

We'll all be just fine so risking doing nothing is a better alternative than being subjected to arbitrary capriciously enforced overbearing expensive government regulation.

It's tough when one is forced to have to choose between science and extreme conservative media led culthood, isn't it.

Rush being such an intellectual giant and all.

When ignorance is the most compelling option that you have, you must have taken a wrong turn somewhere along the way.

Ignorance huh?

BTW I don't listen to talking heads on the radio nor do I watch them on the idiot box.

You want to talk ignorance? You're the one stuck in a two dimensional pigeonhole where people either listen to right wing morons and believe what they say or they don't.

In other words you're just another fucking sheep.

If the earth is a few degrees warmer we'll all be just fine. There will be no biblical catastrophes.

So go back to bed little sheep and rest up for Sunday dinner, you're on the menu.

"If the earth is a few degrees warmer we'll all be just fine. There will be no biblical catastrophes."

I understand why you would want this to be true. We all do.

If it wasn't for all of the evidence to the contrary, I'd be right aboard.

But EVIDENCE, man! It's much more compelling than the cult can ever be.

Kool Aid is good but EVIDENCE is addictive in the real world.

So much better than the opinions of entertainers issued for money.

 

[westwall]

"Comparing an infinitely diverse and flexible global ecosystem to making change at the 7-11 is so absurd as to be self-evident"

And yet denyers do the equivalent here everyday.

I'm not the one comparing the stupid computer models as analogous to making change as a convenience store, Corky.

"Stupid" computer models. That says it all, doesn't it? I think that being a climate reactionary fits you like a glove and was inevitable from birth.

Yes, they are "stupid". And they are simplistic. The computer models they use for aircraft design are thousands of times more capable than the best computer climate models and they are dealing with ONE aspect of physics.

Stupid doesn't even begin to come close to how worthless and incompetent the computer climate models are.

 

[Skull Pilot]

It's tough when one is forced to have to choose between science and extreme conservative media led culthood, isn't it.

Rush being such an intellectual giant and all.

When ignorance is the most compelling option that you have, you must have taken a wrong turn somewhere along the way.

Ignorance huh?

BTW I don't listen to talking heads on the radio nor do I watch them on the idiot box.

You want to talk ignorance? You're the one stuck in a two dimensional pigeonhole where people either listen to right wing morons and believe what they say or they don't.

In other words you're just another fucking sheep.

If the earth is a few degrees warmer we'll all be just fine. There will be no biblical catastrophes.

So go back to bed little sheep and rest up for Sunday dinner, you're on the menu.

"If the earth is a few degrees warmer we'll all be just fine. There will be no biblical catastrophes."

I understand why you would want this to be true. We all do.

If it wasn't for all of the evidence to the contrary, I'd be right aboard.

But EVIDENCE, man! It's much more compelling than the cult can ever be.

Kool Aid is good but EVIDENCE is addictive in the real world.

So much better than the opinions of entertainers issued for money.

Evidence ?

Show me concrete conclusive evidence that a catastrophe was caused by human activity.

The only cultist in our conversation is you.

 

[PMZ]

Airplanes don't start out as computer models. Computer come later in the design process. And the models are based on a set of physics that are known to produce accurate results. Would you fly in an airplane based on a computer model that predicts outcomes as well as climate models? If you are going to play with an alogies, at least try to think of one that doesn't, by definition, shoot your point down.

Add airplane design to the growing list of things that you know nothing about. Complex mechanisms today begin life as 3D CAD models with finite element analysis.

Climate models are much the same. If this happens what changes does it cause in its immediate locale and how does that spread over time. Only denyers use paper and pencil guesses to keep alive hope for a different answer.

Science is objective. Hoping for a particular outcome is voodoo.

Computer Assisted Design is not a model.......idiot. It is a drafting table in a computer. Have you always been this stupid are did you have to have to have pharmaceutical help?

"Computer Assisted Design is not a model"

It is though. As real as most supermodels. In fact designs are now called "CAD models" here in the third melenium.

 

[westwall]

It's tough when one is forced to have to choose between science and extreme conservative media led culthood, isn't it.

Rush being such an intellectual giant and all.

When ignorance is the most compelling option that you have, you must have taken a wrong turn somewhere along the way.

Ignorance huh?

BTW I don't listen to talking heads on the radio nor do I watch them on the idiot box.

You want to talk ignorance? You're the one stuck in a two dimensional pigeonhole where people either listen to right wing morons and believe what they say or they don't.

In other words you're just another fucking sheep.

If the earth is a few degrees warmer we'll all be just fine. There will be no biblical catastrophes.

So go back to bed little sheep and rest up for Sunday dinner, you're on the menu.

"If the earth is a few degrees warmer we'll all be just fine. There will be no biblical catastrophes."

I understand why you would want this to be true. We all do.

If it wasn't for all of the evidence to the contrary, I'd be right aboard.

But EVIDENCE, man! It's much more compelling than the cult can ever be.

Kool Aid is good but EVIDENCE is addictive in the real world.

So much better than the opinions of entertainers issued for money.

Yes ALL evidence says that warmer is better. MUCH better. You live your life in a world of computer models but the real world, and the historical record shows, that it was MUCH warmer during many times in the very recent past. And in ALL of those times it has been better for ALL LIFE on this planet.

Read a book sometime mr. science and history denier....

 

[PMZ]

Ignorance huh?

BTW I don't listen to talking heads on the radio nor do I watch them on the idiot box.

You want to talk ignorance? You're the one stuck in a two dimensional pigeonhole where people either listen to right wing morons and believe what they say or they don't.

In other words you're just another fucking sheep.

If the earth is a few degrees warmer we'll all be just fine. There will be no biblical catastrophes.

So go back to bed little sheep and rest up for Sunday dinner, you're on the menu.

"If the earth is a few degrees warmer we'll all be just fine. There will be no biblical catastrophes."

I understand why you would want this to be true. We all do.

If it wasn't for all of the evidence to the contrary, I'd be right aboard.

But EVIDENCE, man! It's much more compelling than the cult can ever be.

Kool Aid is good but EVIDENCE is addictive in the real world.

So much better than the opinions of entertainers issued for money.

Evidence ?

Show me concrete conclusive evidence that a catastrophe was caused by human activity.

The only cultist in our conversation is you.

If we all waited for "concrete conclusive evidence" for anything, much less everything, to act, we'd all be in the belly of the beast early in life. But don't worry. We won't leave you behind.

 

[PMZ]

Ignorance huh?

BTW I don't listen to talking heads on the radio nor do I watch them on the idiot box.

You want to talk ignorance? You're the one stuck in a two dimensional pigeonhole where people either listen to right wing morons and believe what they say or they don't.

In other words you're just another fucking sheep.

If the earth is a few degrees warmer we'll all be just fine. There will be no biblical catastrophes.

So go back to bed little sheep and rest up for Sunday dinner, you're on the menu.

"If the earth is a few degrees warmer we'll all be just fine. There will be no biblical catastrophes."

I understand why you would want this to be true. We all do.

If it wasn't for all of the evidence to the contrary, I'd be right aboard.

But EVIDENCE, man! It's much more compelling than the cult can ever be.

Kool Aid is good but EVIDENCE is addictive in the real world.

So much better than the opinions of entertainers issued for money.

Yes ALL evidence says that warmer is better. MUCH better. You live your life in a world of computer models but the real world, and the historical record shows, that it was MUCH warmer during many times in the very recent past. And in ALL of those times it has been better for ALL LIFE on this planet.

Read a book sometime mr. science and history denier....

The essence of conservative thought. We should have never left the caves. Progress is just so scary.

 

[Skull Pilot]

"If the earth is a few degrees warmer we'll all be just fine. There will be no biblical catastrophes."

I understand why you would want this to be true. We all do.

If it wasn't for all of the evidence to the contrary, I'd be right aboard.

But EVIDENCE, man! It's much more compelling than the cult can ever be.

Kool Aid is good but EVIDENCE is addictive in the real world.

So much better than the opinions of entertainers issued for money.

Evidence ?

Show me concrete conclusive evidence that a catastrophe was caused by human activity.

The only cultist in our conversation is you.

If we all waited for "concrete conclusive evidence" for anything, much less everything, to act, we'd all be in the belly of the beast early in life. But don't worry. We won't leave you behind.

So much for your evidence. Or do you define evidence as Subjective extrapolation, or is it just Chicken Little syndrome?

 

[PMZ]

I'm not the one comparing the stupid computer models as analogous to making change as a convenience store, Corky.

"Stupid" computer models. That says it all, doesn't it? I think that being a climate reactionary fits you like a glove and was inevitable from birth.

Yes, they are "stupid". And they are simplistic. The computer models they use for aircraft design are thousands of times more capable than the best computer climate models and they are dealing with ONE aspect of physics.

Stupid doesn't even begin to come close to how worthless and incompetent the computer climate models are.

I know how you like to pretend that you can fly. Flying though requires intimate knowledge of weather. Pilots are almost addicted to computer models predicting weather, which are the basis for climate models. in fact pilots today wouldn't think of battling gravity without a whole host of computer models. In fact there are many planes that couldn't even fly with only a person at the controls. More computers.

I'm thinking that the only thing that flies for you are your superhero underpants.

 

[PMZ]

Evidence ?

Show me concrete conclusive evidence that a catastrophe was caused by human activity.

The only cultist in our conversation is you.

If we all waited for "concrete conclusive evidence" for anything, much less everything, to act, we'd all be in the belly of the beast early in life. But don't worry. We won't leave you behind.

So much for your evidence. Or do you define evidence as Subjective extrapolation, or is it just Chicken Little syndrome?

Here's the thing. Evidence is one thing. "Concrete conclusive evidence" is another. See how that works? It's an important point that typically starts to gel around five years old. It's what mom was trying to teach you when she said "hot" hoping that you'd take her word for that.

 

[itfitzme]

The Canary In A Coal Mine.

 

[itfitzme]

Location, velocity, acceleration... l, dl/dt, d^2/dt^2(l).

Even small, sustained acceleration means future high velocity. Even small, sustained, velocity means future high location.

When your standing on the edge of a cliff, even small velocity or acceleration means falling off the cliff.

That is how we predict the future, measuring rate of change.

That is high rate of change.

"In other words, the rate of change is much greater than anything we've seen in the whole Holocene"

Now we look for the canary in the coal mine and hope it isn't dead yet because this is one coal mine we're not walking out of.


The Scariest Climate Change Graph Just Got Scarier | Mother Jones

A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years

Climate Desk

 

[westwall]

Add airplane design to the growing list of things that you know nothing about. Complex mechanisms today begin life as 3D CAD models with finite element analysis.

Climate models are much the same. If this happens what changes does it cause in its immediate locale and how does that spread over time. Only denyers use paper and pencil guesses to keep alive hope for a different answer.

Science is objective. Hoping for a particular outcome is voodoo.

Computer Assisted Design is not a model.......idiot. It is a drafting table in a computer. Have you always been this stupid are did you have to have to have pharmaceutical help?

"Computer Assisted Design is not a model"

It is though. As real as most supermodels. In fact designs are now called "CAD models" here in the third melenium.

No, it's not, you ignorant fool. It is a drafting program in a computer. It has no modeling capabilities at all. It Can make cute little animations that show exterior views and the better programs can give you artists views of how it should LOOK. But they have zero engineering capabilities.

Go to school. You KNOW nothing.

And it shows....

 

[flacaltenn]

Airplanes don't start out as computer models. Computer come later in the design process. And the models are based on a set of physics that are known to produce accurate results. Would you fly in an airplane based on a computer model that predicts outcomes as well as climate models? If you are going to play with an alogies, at least try to think of one that doesn't, by definition, shoot your point down.

Add airplane design to the growing list of things that you know nothing about. Complex mechanisms today begin life as 3D CAD models with finite element analysis.

Climate models are much the same. If this happens what changes does it cause in its immediate locale and how does that spread over time. Only denyers use paper and pencil guesses to keep alive hope for a different answer.

Science is objective. Hoping for a particular outcome is voodoo.

Computer Assisted Design is not a model.......idiot. It is a drafting table in a computer. Have you always been this stupid are did you have to have to have pharmaceutical help?

The state of the art is not much better when you apply a simulator to the output of your CAD... Mostly a waste of time that gives management a false sense of comfort. Just like the enormous number of bogus Excel spreadsheets I have shoved in my face every year -- I've witnessed monumental failures of engineering modeling to certify the performance of a large design. For small pieces or circuits or physical phenomena it's OK. For hurricane tracking -- OK.. For the climate of a planet --- dubious.